Support NeoGAF

[Father_Brain]

Almost certainly. They were burned by bullish forecasts on the Wii U.

They forecast a completely absurd 9M for its first full FY on the market, and refused to revise that downward with their Q1 and Q2 results when it was obvious to anyone paying the slightest bit of attention to sales figures that they wouldn't even reach half that figure. They ended up hitting less than a third of their target.

 

[jroc74]

I believe the Nintendo Switch will outsell the Nintendo 3DS

If it does that I would be surprised.

I mean if it didn't do that it would have been disappointing? This is a device that's replacing two different systems. I expected it to sell about what the 3ds sold

It wouldnt be disappointing. A lil less is what I predict.

 

[Neonep]

The only thing that will get me to buy a Switch is Pokemon. Once it is announced I will go on the hunt for a Switch. When do we expect them to announce this game if it is true, because this seems like the game that would get its own direct.

 

[Neonep]

I believe the Nintendo Switch will outsell the Nintendo 3DS

No it won't.

 

[James Scott]

I wonder why Capcom was so apprehensive about the Switch in comparison to the 3DS or even the Wii U.
Apparently laughing at the suggestion of MVCI on Switch, the Disney *NES* games skipping the system entirely, their only Switch title being a game that was on sale for like $2 on PSN the other month being sold for $40 while missing launch by like 2 months and a half. I'm not sure I get it. Capcom supported the 3DS when no one else did and they sold several million units on there even with SFIV which sold like 1.4M.
Maybe they'll see the change and adapt, but we won't be seeing much from them for awhile.

 

[Neonep]

I wonder why Capcom was so apprehensive about the Switch in comparison to the 3DS or even the Wii U.
Apparently laughing at the suggestion of MVCI on Switch, the Disney *NES* games skipping the system entirely, their only Switch title being a game that was on sale for like $2 on PSN the other month being sold for $40 while missing launch by like 2 months and a half. I'm not sure I get it. Capcom supported the 3DS when no one else did and they sold several million units on there even with SFIV which sold like 1.4M.
Maybe they'll see the change and adapt, but we won't be seeing much from them for awhile.

Or maybe they have somethings planned just haven't spoken on them yet.

 

[Sandfox]

I wonder why Capcom was so apprehensive about the Switch in comparison to the 3DS or even the Wii U.
Apparently laughing at the suggestion of MVCI on Switch, the Disney *NES* games skipping the system entirely, their only Switch title being a game that was on sale for like $2 on PSN the other month being sold for $40 while missing launch by like 2 months and a half. I'm not sure I get it. Capcom supported the 3DS when no one else did and they sold several million units on there even with SFIV which sold like 1.4M.
Maybe they'll see the change and adapt, but we won't be seeing much from them for awhile.

The best answer is because it's Capcom. They constantly drop the ball.

 

[E-phonk]

I wonder why Capcom

There you have it

Seriously, the disney NES remasters, MVCI and MonHunXX during launch would all make a lot of sense on switch.

 

[James Scott]

While you could argue MHXX wouldn't look too nice on Switch in HD, They did port MH3G to Wii U. I'm pretty sure they said it exceeded expectations too. Just seems like Capcom thought the Switch was going to be something else so they decided to not support it early on.
At this point I'd be shocked if MH stays Nintendo exclusive, maybe be a bit shocked if it comes to Switch at the same time/at all.

Or maybe they have somethings planned just haven't spoken on them yet.

I imagine they'll make stuff for it in the future, but after SFII they have nothing announced for it.
It was awhile before MH was confirmed for 3DS, but 3G launched in December in Japan and Capcom had SF43D at launch and had two resident evil games announced for it.

 

[schuelma]

e Switch was going to be something else so they decided to not support it early on.
At this point I'd be shocked if MH stays Nintendo exclusive, maybe be a bit shocked if it comes to Switch at the same time/at all.

You think Capcom is going to skip the only viable portable system in Japan on a system built off portable multiplayer in Japan?

 

[Herb Alpert]

They forecast a completely absurd 9M for its first full FY on the market, and refused to revise that downward with their Q1 and Q2 results when it was obvious to anyone paying the slightest bit of attention to sales figures that they wouldn't even reach half that figure. They ended up hitting less than a third of their target.

In retrospect this even more ridiculous.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Nintendo's release schedule is pretty crowded for 2017. I can see Retro's game getting bumped to 2018, especially if they have another big title ready for 2017 (Pokemon or Smash). Even if they don't have another big game, they may not have a big open window for another major 2017 title.

I disagree. If neither pokemon and smash exist/are 2017, it's actually not that crowded. But I think they do exist.

 

[jonno394]

While you could argue MHXX wouldn't look too nice on Switch in HD, They did port MH3G to Wii U. I'm pretty sure they said it exceeded expectations too. Just seems like Capcom thought the Switch was going to be something else so they decided to not support it early on.
At this point I'd be shocked if MH stays Nintendo exclusive, maybe be a bit shocked if it comes to Switch at the same time/at all.

I imagine they'll make stuff for it in the future, but after SFII they have nothing announced for it.
It was awhile before MH was confirmed for 3DS, but 3G launched in December in Japan and Capcom had SF43D at launch and had two resident evil games announced for it.

Street Fighter releases in May, then June we have E3. I'm either expecting 2 or 3 Switch titles shown by Capcom in the Nintendo Direct, or nothing.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

I wonder why Capcom was so apprehensive about the Switch in comparison to the 3DS or even the Wii U.

They probably were apprehensive because they saw it as the successor of the Wii U (in terms of sales) than the 3DS (again, in terms of sales). In retrospect, most of the Japanese developers (and many western ones) would put more support for the system if they knew it would become this phenomenon.

I stated it before and I will say it again, I don't expect to see the flood of Japanese game announcements until Fall and the flood of western, non-indie games until 2018. Game development is time consuming and very expensive, and most companies are probably starting with proposals to management about switch ports and exclusives.

Bullet point #1 in that powerpoint is probably "switch is one of the best selling systems in Nintendo history" and bullet point #2 is that "Legend of Zelda is driving current sales, so the audience is likely more receptive to 3rd party games."

Just sayin'

 

[Father_Brain]

10m for FY2017 is way lower than what I expected Nintendo to ship.

They are being really conservative.

Conservative forecasts are sensible, given their recent history. They got burned particularly badly by selling less than a third of their Wii U target in FY2013, and while not by as dramatic a margin, I think they've missed most of their 3DS hardware and software forecasts (though not this year).

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

Nintendo has yet to announce time and date of its E3 2017 Nintendo Direct/Digital Event/Press conference. They will likely share some details on E3 2017 during the earnings release briefing on April 28.

Did they do that before? I think we might see something next week though May 3rd

 

[Rösti]

Did they do that before? I think we might see something next week though May 3rd

Did they share E3 details in an earnings release briefing before? Yes, they did. Here's an image of a slide during the Financial Results Briefing for Fiscal Year Ended March 2016:

Source: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/events/160428/04.html

 

[calc84maniac]

No it won't.

Well, not with one SKU it probably won't. But if they manage to get it into a traditional handheld form factor at a cheaper price a couple years down the line, I believe it could outdo the 3DS.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

Did they share E3 details in an earnings release briefing before? Yes, they did. Here's an image of a slide during the Financial Results Briefing for Fiscal Year Ended March 2016:

Source: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/events/160428/04.html

Nice, would be nice if they gave us the date. How long after did they do that?

 

[Rösti]

Nice, would be nice if they gave us the date. How long after did they do that?

I'm unsure, but their site for E3 2016 (e3.nintendo.com) went live May 5, 2016.

 

[Aostia]

I disagree. If neither pokemon and smash exist/are 2017, it's actually not that crowded. But I think they do exist.

Fire emblem warriors
Mario oddissey
Xenoblade 2

For the last 4 months of the year

I can see Animal crossing being announced and released shortly after if there will actually be the mobile app in the second half of the year


Possible emptiness won't be due to Nintendo output but as usual from third party issues


The only solution would be to actually merge their portable and home pipeline but so far we haven't seen anything substantial about it

 

[Mory Dunz]

Fire emblem warriors
Mario oddissey
Xenoblade 2

For the last 4 months of the year

I can see Animal crossing being announced and released shortly after if there will actually be the mobile app in the second half of the year


Possible emptiness won't be due to Nintendo output but as usual from third party issues


The only solution would be to actually merge their portable and home pipeline but so far we haven't seen anything substantial about it

AC shortly announced after what? like early 2018.

But yeah, without pokemon and smash I stand by saying 2017 isn't all that crowded. Those three games is about the level I'm expecting for the switch. Smash and Pokemon would be top tier level. Mind you, I think they exist along with Mario Rabbids so 2017 should be good.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

Nintendo Switch: 2.74 million units shipped
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild: 3.84 million (2.76 Switch, 1.08 Wii U)

How are there 20k more copies of Zelda than systems?

Whaa? =/

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

For boring technical reasons I don't yet have the new figures up where I can make visuals from them, but: that 2.74 million figure is pretty great. When we heard reports of 2 million and then learned it was for the entire month of March, that seemed pretty low compared to the last few launches. But since they surpassed those expectations by about 40%, it compares very favorably with them. Only 3DS is clearly ahead in units-per-day.

Machine: First quarterly shipment (Days from launch)

NSW: 2.74 (28)
3DS: 3.61 (33)
Wii: 3.19 (42)
WiU: 3.06 (43)

Since we're nearly a month past that Switch number and things are still easily selling out, we can be certain it's well over 3 million by this point and probably won't be long until it hits 4. Which is kind of a big deal since Wii U still failed to hit 4 million after its 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters.

If they were to ship and sell "only" 10 million through this year, it would still be well behind where Wii and 3DS were at a similar point.

 

[pixelation]

I'm conflicted i want to be happy for them, but i can't because this basically means that the follow up to the switch will also be lackluster (techwise speaking) i mean people gobble them up regardless so why bother?, being a graphics whore... well that's no good for me.

 

[oti]

I'm conflicted i want to be happy for them, but i can't because this basically means that the follow up to the switch will also be lackluster (techwise speaking) i mean people gobble them up regardless so why bother?, being a graphics whore... well that's no good for me.

Being a graphics whore the last Nintendo console you were interested in was the GameCube.

 

[Friend of Sonic]

Wii U had one more million seller. It was expected but still nice to see

 

[SuperSonic1305]

It prints money, far away from a flop. Probably Switch second best selling game.

Not like it had much competition for that.

 

[pixelation]

Being a graphics whore the last Nintendo console you were interested in was the GameCube.

Yes... but i caved in and purchased the Wii, i mean... i can't do w/o some Nintendo goodness.

 

[foxuzamaki]

I'm conflicted i want to be happy for them, but i can't because this basically means that the follow up to the switch will also be lackluster (techwise speaking) i mean people gobble them up regardless so why bother?, being a graphics whore... well that's no good for me.

The switch hybrid is as strong as it can possibly be on the markwt, the follow up will most likely be the strongest it can be when it comes out

 

[Platy]

I wanted to see some mobile numbers =/

 

[KingV]

Zelda Switch is doing absolutely unbelievable business. Surely a worldwide 1:1 ratio is unprecedented?

Also, I reckon it's likely that Sun and Moon has X and Y overturned within 6 months.

In retrospect I wouldn't be surprised if Mario 64 had similar attach rates in the N64 launch window, that game also had heavy buzz as a launch title.

 

[Ruud_Luiten]

I wonder why Capcom was so apprehensive about the Switch in comparison to the 3DS or even the Wii U.
Apparently laughing at the suggestion of MVCI on Switch, the Disney *NES* games skipping the system entirely, their only Switch title being a game that was on sale for like $2 on PSN the other month being sold for $40 while missing launch by like 2 months and a half. I'm not sure I get it. Capcom supported the 3DS when no one else did and they sold several million units on there even with SFIV which sold like 1.4M.
Maybe they'll see the change and adapt, but we won't be seeing much from them for awhile.

Nintendo paid a lot of money for Monster Hunter. Now, without any competition they won't do that again.

Capcom likes free money and hates it when there is no free money anymore...
This is modern day negotiation.

 

[Bronetta]

I wonder why Capcom was so apprehensive about the Switch in comparison to the 3DS or even the Wii U.

They were in a much better position in 2011 than they are right now. After bomb after bomb, missing sales targets constantly and mishandling almost every single ip they own, they really aren't in a position to be taking risks or investing in multiple major titles anymore.

Hell I think they only have 3 major titles planned for this fiscal year?

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

I'm unsure, but their site for E3 2016 (e3.nintendo.com) went live May 5, 2016.

Hmm ok, maybe next week then

 

[Version 3.0]

Nintendo's release schedule is pretty crowded for 2017. I can see Retro's game getting bumped to 2018, especially if they have another big title ready for 2017 (Pokemon or Smash). Even if they don't have another big game, they may not have a big open window for another major 2017 title.

Crowded? I don't see that in the slightest. Until they announce a lot more, it's not even up to par with their last 3 home consoles. At least numerically; quality is subjective, but obviously Zelda is the best possible start.

Look, here are the games from the 1st 12 months of their last 3 home consoles:

Gamecube:
Luigi's Mansion
Wave Race: Blue Storm
Pikmin
Super Smash Bros. Melee
NBA Courtside 2002
Eternal Darkness: Sanity's Requiem
Super Mario Sunshine
Animal Crossing
Mario Party 4
Metroid Prime
Star Fox Adventures

Wii:
Wii Sports
Excite Truck
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
WarioWare: Smooth Moves
Wii Play
Super Paper Mario
Mario Party 8
Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree
Pokémon Battle Revolution
Mario Strikers Charged
Metroid Prime 3: Corruption
Donkey Kong Barrel Blast
Battalion Wars 2
Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
Super Mario Galaxy
Link's Crossbow Training

Wii U:
New Super Mario Bros. U
Nintendo Land
Lego City Undercover
Game & Wario
Pikmin 3
New Super Luigi U
The Wonderful 101
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD
Wii Party U
Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games
Super Mario 3D World
NES Remix

Nintendo has, what, 10 Switch games released and announced combined at this point? And don't say 3rd parties, because the Gamecube and Wii had plenty of 3rd party support. Right now, the Switch is tracking to maybe equal the Wii U until more games are announced for release within its 1st year.

 

[CharminUltra]

This Year's E3

At E3, we will focus on the latest title in the Donkey Kong Country Returns series.

.

 

[kevin1025]

Crowded? I don't see that in the slightest. Until they announce a lot more, it's not even up to par with their last 3 home consoles. At least numerically; quality is subjective, but obviously Zelda is the best possible start.

Look, here are the games from the 1st 12 months of their last 3 home consoles:

*list*

Nintendo has, what, 10 Switch games released and announced combined at this point? And don't say 3rd parties, because the Gamecube and Wii had plenty of 3rd party support. Right now, the Switch is tracking to maybe equal the Wii U until more games are announced for release within its 1st year.

I guess it comes down to spacing out their announcements. We're only ~45 days or so away from what could be a large swath of announcements, or at least filling in the blanks on the release calendar. Plus there's online, Virtual Console, game partnerships like that potential Rabbids game, etc. The lists you mentioned are substantial, and may not be beaten by number, but I wouldn't be concerned too much for the time being. Still plenty of months left in the launch year!

 

[ninjablade]

I honestly don't get why anybody thought nintendo was doomed, there home consoles business was doomed with 3 out 4 being failures for nintendo. i predicted that wiiu would only do 13-14 million 4 years ago, and nobody wanted a nintendo home console because microsft and especially sony have that market on lock. as a handheld which is what the switch mainly is, with some thought put in to connect to a tv, it should do around 30- 40 million easy. we have yet to see a nintendo handhled fail, why should we expect the switch to fail.

 

[Dark Cloud]

I'm unsure, but their site for E3 2016 (e3.nintendo.com) went live May 5, 2016.

I'm eagerly awaiting for next week. Come on Mega64 video!

Do you have the time for the investors meeting?

 

[Version 3.0]

I guess it comes down to spacing out their announcements. We're only ~45 days or so away from what could be a large swath of announcements, or at least filling in the blanks on the release calendar. Plus there's online, Virtual Console, game partnerships like that potential Rabbids game, etc. The lists you mentioned are substantial, and may not be beaten by number, but I wouldn't be concerned too much for the time being. Still plenty of months left in the launch year!

Of course, agreed. I expect plenty more. Er, make that "demand", heh. I'm just disagreeing that there's no room for Retro. There's lots of room!

 

[Calm Mind]

10m worldwide? Lol we aint getting nothing but mario odyssey and wii u ports this year

You live up to your name very well.

 

[Celine]

For boring technical reasons I don't yet have the new figures up where I can make visuals from them, but: that 2.74 million figure is pretty great. When we heard reports of 2 million and then learned it was for the entire month of March, that seemed pretty low compared to the last few launches. But since they surpassed those expectations by about 40%, it compares very favorably with them. Only 3DS is clearly ahead in units-per-day.

Machine: First quarterly shipment (Days from launch)

NSW: 2.74 (28)
3DS: 3.61 (33)
Wii: 3.19 (42)
WiU: 3.06 (43)

Since we're nearly a month past that Switch number and things are still easily selling out, we can be certain it's well over 3 million by this point and probably won't be long until it hits 4. Which is kind of a big deal since Wii U still failed to hit 4 million after its 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters.

If they were to ship and sell "only" 10 million through this year, it would still be well behind where Wii and 3DS were at a similar point.

The infamous WiiU fourth quarter when the console actually sold negative numbers in Europe (Nintendo bought back the stocks).

 

[spekkeh]

I honestly don't get why anybody thought nintendo was doomed, there home consoles business was doomed with 3 out 4 being failures for nintendo. i predicted that wiiu would only do 13-14 million 4 years ago, and nobody wanted a nintendo home console because microsft and especially sony have that market on lock. as a handheld which is what the switch mainly is, with some thought put in to connect to a tv, it should do around 30- 40 million easy. we have yet to see a nintendo handhled fail, why should we expect the switch to fail.

Uh huh

Nintendo released the following home consoles: NES, SNES, N64, NGC, WII, WIU

Three out of four are failures. So four and a half of these are failures. I'm sure we can all agree that WII wasn't a failure, so you are arguing every single other one including NES and SNES were failures. Please tell me more oh wise games analyst.

 

[James Scott]

You think Capcom is going to skip the only viable portable system in Japan on a system built off portable multiplayer in Japan?

It sure doesn't seem like they're trying to build up the home of their biggest franchise.
Though Capcom would be pretty crazy to skip out on it now...but this is Capcom we're talking about

Nintendo paid a lot of money for Monster Hunter. Now, without any competition they won't do that again.

Capcom likes free money and hates it when there is no free money anymore...
This is modern day negotiation.

Maybe. It's probably likely that they don't need MH anymore thanks to having mainline console games like Zelda next to mainline handheld games like pokemon, but it should would be better with it than without. I also don't think Nintendo went into this generation without thinking they didn't need Capcom help like last gen when it was a pretty major factor for 3DS's success and Switch's success wasn't as likely as it seems now.

How are there 20k more copies of Zelda than systems?

Whaa? =/

They said they believe it's due to people buying multiple copies thanks to the LE. Additionally people buying it when the system is sold out is another option.

 

[Atheerios]

So the briefing is at 10 JST today right?

Haven't seen a thread for it nor tweets from Mochizuki or other Japanese press

 

[kevin1025]

Of course, agreed. I expect plenty more. Er, make that "demand", heh. I'm just disagreeing that there's no room for Retro. There's lots of room!

Haha, true, I'd love for there to be more games! But then comes the concern that they threw up most of their stuff and 2018 will be somewhat quiet.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

I wanted to see some mobile numbers =/

Super Mario Run (iOS and Android): >150 Million downloads.
Fire Emblem Heroes (iOS and Android): >15 million downloads (Majority revenue)

¥11.8 billion from Japan and ¥9.3 billion from U.S. for smartphone games & related.

TOTAL Smart Device, IP related income: ¥24.25 billion or $218 million for the 12 months ended FY3/2017

Pokémon Go earnings: $182.2 million for the 12 months ended FY3/2017

 

[thestopsign]

Of course, agreed. I expect plenty more. Er, make that "demand", heh. I'm just disagreeing that there's no room for Retro. There's lots of room!

You get to include the second November in a lot of those first year release schedules which is when a second round of big games typically comes. I would expect one more game for Q4 this year and then Nintendo will have a big game for Q1 next year that they pushed out of Q4 2017 whether it is Super Smash, Mario Maker, Pokemon Stars, Retro's Game, or Animal Crossing along with another smaller scale title. It'll round out the first year line up quite a bit in comparison to Wii and Gamecube. I think the Wii U's looks weak even against the Switch's line up as is.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Nintendo's financial results briefings are usually held 10:00 AM JST the day after the earnings release. April 28, 2017, 10:00 AM JST converts to the below.

I think they have had it 09:00 AM JST some time. But around these times anyway.

Kimishima be walkin' in like