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Nintendo NPD PR: 3DS has surpassed 60 million unit worldwide
- Thread starter Ryng_tolu
- Start date
linkandzelda
Member
This thing has been out for an entire console generation, 5 years. It is slowing down significantly but that is to be expected. Doubt it'll reach 75m.
Poor sales of Yokai Watch don't devalue Level-5's efforts
Yokai Watch should have had stayed in Japan. The design of the Yokai are hideous and quite lazy I may add. A good percentage of them were just color swapped when browsing though strategy guide. However, I yet to play the game. Despite, Level-5 efforts, they need Nintendo to published their own game in the West.
If that leaked 3ds price drop happens during the holiday season, i can see it give it a significant boost at least before the "NX handheld" replaces it/ is annouced. I see 72-76m as a possiblity, 80m would probably be the max i'd expect realistically.
ZeroMaverick
Member
But by Nintendo handheld standards, that's not too great. The GBA sold like 81 million. Different times, different era, different market, but on a purely numbers scale...
Sammy Samusu
Member
Father_Brain
Banned
You can see the full 3DS TTM (trailing twelve months, which smooths out seasonal variations in demand) sales graph here:
http://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/Matt..._revisions_improve_Nintendos_handheld_biz.php
3DS sales peaked in the quarter ending in September 2012, seven quarters into its lifespan and before even its second holiday season, at around 15M/year.
DS sales peaked in Q4 2008 at around 30M/year, over four years into its lifespan (17 quarters) and in its fifth holiday season.
GBA sales peaked in Q4 2003 at around 18M/year, twelve quarters into its lifespan and in its third holiday season.
http://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/Matt..._revisions_improve_Nintendos_handheld_biz.php
3DS sales peaked in the quarter ending in September 2012, seven quarters into its lifespan and before even its second holiday season, at around 15M/year.
DS sales peaked in Q4 2008 at around 30M/year, over four years into its lifespan (17 quarters) and in its fifth holiday season.
GBA sales peaked in Q4 2003 at around 18M/year, twelve quarters into its lifespan and in its third holiday season.
No dedicated gaming device have yet to break this record 30M/year for the DS. Not even the the PS2 nor the Wii sold that many units in year.
Oh.... so that is why the 3ds's least successful market is Japan, a market where smartphones and smartphone games have been a thing for not only longer than anywhere else, but are also generating way more revenue. Poor 3ds never had a chance... it was pretty much doomed there from the get go.
oh... wait
Not everything can be a DS. Besides, the Game Boy (Classic/Pocket/Color) took 12 years to reach 118 million. 3DS reaching 60 million in 5 years isn't bad.
Orniletter
Banned
Yokai Watch did not sell poorly. It's not exploding out the gate, like Pokemon, but it is doing well in the US and Europe.
It was nonsensical for Nintendo NOT to upgrade the 2DS to the New 2DS. They could have had did a Animal Crossing Happy Home Design bundle w/ the integrated NFC would have easily attracted the crowd that is put off by the 3D. Plus, Nintendo could have had sold more Amiibo Cards as well. Consdering that the cost the NFC chip is dirt cheap and the upgraded RAM and GPU, I suspect, were cheap as well. (And no need for the eye tracking as well)
Stilton Disco
Member
I'm actually surprised it's done this well. I thought for a long time 60m was its ceiling for lifetime sales, so I'm pleased to be wrong, even if it's still unlikely to ever match even the PSP.
Still, it's a great system, and I'd personally argue better then the DS, so I'm bummed it's seen such a dramatic fall in fortunes in comparison to its predecessor.
I just hope the NX portable can stem the bleeding.
Japan is pretty much a post apocalyptic dystopian nightmare when it comes to its games market, and with social and cultural norms in its habits with and attitudes toward gaming that aren't seen anywhere else. You really can't compare it to the worldwide trends that are having far bigger effects in the entire games industry.
Still, it's a great system, and I'd personally argue better then the DS, so I'm bummed it's seen such a dramatic fall in fortunes in comparison to its predecessor.
I just hope the NX portable can stem the bleeding.
Japan is pretty much a post apocalyptic dystopian nightmare when it comes to its games market, and with social and cultural norms in its habits with and attitudes toward gaming that aren't seen anywhere else. You really can't compare it to the worldwide trends that are having far bigger effects in the entire games industry.
Hcoregamer00
The 'H' stands for hentai.
Great rebuttal, using your logic the explosive growth of the smartphone gaming market in Japan won't have deleterious effects on game development and hardware sales.
Oh.... Wait.
It is rather unfortunate since I play the 3DS more than anything, it is probably my favorite of the current consoles.
perfectchaos007
Member
Nintendo really turned around this consoles fate with their pricedrop early on. We'll probably never see another handheld reach 100 million in the mobile era so 60 million is very solid. 3DS probably still has another year or two in its life cycle too so it could reach 75 million before its all said and done
Not really understanding how this is supposed to contradict his point. The handheld market, and the traditional market as a whole, in Japan, is a shadow of its former self.
The 3DS has been selling very poorly for a while now as well, so there's no signs that the next handheld will blow the lid off.
Great sales, crushing a system like the SNES.
Comparing it to the handheld console peaks - in other words to the best selling consoles of all time - is not relevant. They didn't compete in a market of a million portable devices.
The fact that the 3DS puts up great sales like these in this modern climate shows the potential for dedicated handhelds to live on. It has at times been the dominant hardware in Japan and European markets. It has birthed new franchises and seen sales peaks for older ones.
But it's also surely the last Nintendo handheld to live in its own separate sphere. The NX will hopefully make even the company's traditionally console exclusive titles available to those of us who love to game on portables.
Comparing it to the handheld console peaks - in other words to the best selling consoles of all time - is not relevant. They didn't compete in a market of a million portable devices.
The fact that the 3DS puts up great sales like these in this modern climate shows the potential for dedicated handhelds to live on. It has at times been the dominant hardware in Japan and European markets. It has birthed new franchises and seen sales peaks for older ones.
But it's also surely the last Nintendo handheld to live in its own separate sphere. The NX will hopefully make even the company's traditionally console exclusive titles available to those of us who love to game on portables.
Bruno MB
Member
The landscape for the dedicated portable console market has changed so much in the last 5 years that 60 million almost looks like a great figure, sad times.
The worst thing for Nintendo is that it is highly likely that no future hardware will ever get close to the 60 million units Nintendo 3DS has managed to sell.
The worst thing for Nintendo is that it is highly likely that no future hardware will ever get close to the 60 million units Nintendo 3DS has managed to sell.
I like that people are listing all the reasons the 3DS has been a failure then concluding that its a success because it had to deal with those reasons. Nice.
At the end of the day the system has failed almost every forecast Nintendo put out for its sales throughout its lifespan. Thats a more objective way of looking at failure than a gut-check.
At the end of the day the system has failed almost every forecast Nintendo put out for its sales throughout its lifespan. Thats a more objective way of looking at failure than a gut-check.
I don't know...I mean I guess we'll see if next gen will be the big turn-around for Nintendo, but with the exception of the Wii/DS, every gen Nintendo consoles have sold less than their predecessors. The only way they can recapture that Wii phenomenon is by introducing some crazy gimmick that every soccer mom and grandma wants to experience...and that's probably going to be impossible with casuals more interested in phones and tablets for their gaming fix.
Ehh, the NX console is a stationary version of the handheld, not the other way around.
The console is the form factor that will have to adapt and conform to what's best for the handheld. The NX platform as a whole will undoubtedly be designed for mobile gaming in mind, which will make the console experience suffer.
The Maverick
Member
NX has even more of a disadvantage, it's releasing smack in the middle of a developed smart phone age. At least the 3DS was early on. Not to mention that Nintendo is obviously not prepared as evidenced by the NX date being pushed back and still not revealed less than a year from release.
Nintendo would be very fortunate if the next handheld touches 35 million.
yes it does:
when the 3ds came out in Japan it already had to compete with a matured smart phone gaming market, and despite that it managed to have some success.
Point is: the existence of a mature smart phone market or rather the spread of smart phones is not as relevant as some people like to claim.
The reason to own a 3ds is hardly portability, it is exclusivity. The main difference is rather simple: In the smart phone space, I buy games for my phone, in the hand held/console space I buy hardware for the games. It's more or less the exact opposite. If somebody wants to buy some casual puzzle game, he probably already owns the means to play it. If he wants to play monster hunter, he'll have to get the hardware for it.
edit: to make it clear, it's not about "blowing the lid off" but rather about the lack of indication that the market for another nintendo handheld will contract by another 50%. Especially with the lack of a direct competitor. people who were going to leave the ship due to smartphones already left
So we can expect something about 70-80m (maybe a lot closer to 70m) lifetime sales when all is said and done?
That's kind of okay actually. For a system that feels like it was launched out of touch and out of time to come close to GBA and somewhat to PSP sales is pretty much okay in todays market. Even if it was coming from the DS high.
That's kind of okay actually. For a system that feels like it was launched out of touch and out of time to come close to GBA and somewhat to PSP sales is pretty much okay in todays market. Even if it was coming from the DS high.
You're crazy if you think 3DS is going to sell 10 or more million units. There aren't any major releases after Pokemon and the NX is coming out next year.
Toadthemushroom
Member
It's amazing how Nintendo managed to at least turn around the 3DS, and how the system eventually sold even with the whole "3D" name being attached to itself for its entire life.
But it's also a shame the system sold lower than Nintendo's internal expectations year after year, and if you look at the regional breakdown for 3DS sales this is a platform that has mostly been sustained by Japan, which is a stark change to previous Nintendo handhelds.
Food for thought:
But it's also a shame the system sold lower than Nintendo's internal expectations year after year, and if you look at the regional breakdown for 3DS sales this is a platform that has mostly been sustained by Japan, which is a stark change to previous Nintendo handhelds.
Food for thought:
I assume the reasonable assumption is that "They passed 60 million since they last released NPD PR"?
IIRC, no-one released PR last month (or was that the month before?), so that's a potential two-month window - although you might reasonably argue that if they'd passed 60 million last month, they'd have released PR to announce that.
Exactly. You buy a 3DS to access its games library, not because of the general idea that you're in the market for a portable gaming device.
No you, an adult gamer buys it for games you can't get elsewhere. The average 3ds owner, a child, has it bought for them as a portable entertainment device.
If you're referring to the thing coming out in March 2017 that's most likely not a handheld system. The huge drop in forecasted hardware sales for Wii U in comparison to the more steady drop for 3DS (which sould be expected from a product in its 6th year) and the fact that Zelda is confirmed for NX kinda paints that picture clear.
Of course, a handheld could come out later in 2017, I expect as much, but that's not a confirmed thing.
Olliewilldie
Neo Member
I was actually considering buying a 3DS finally today.... Was a vita guy for a while but I sadly haven't turned it on for 4-5 months now :/
Thinking it's time I got in on that 3DS action.
Thinking it's time I got in on that 3DS action.
Why do you think that 60m will halve again? Smartphones and app stores were around years before the 3DS launched, and have now pretty much saturated their market. It's now a decade after the launch of the iPhone, the damage has been done. The reason the 3DS was only severely damaged rather than collapse is that Nintendo still makes games children can play, and they don't carry smartphones in the same way that adults do, and also a good chunk of that collapse was similar to the Wii>WiiU: the DS was a good idea at the right time, and the expanded audience disappeared for the 3DS.
I'd be surprised if the NX handheld sold more than the 3DS, but I can't see it halving again to 30m, not unless Pokemon, Mario, Animal Crossing, Monster Hunter etc all disappear.
There is little growth to be had at this point in time.
3DS final LTD is going to be somewhere between 65 and 70 million units.
Toadthemushroom
Member
While I don't think they'll halve I'm certainly more sceptical. When 3DS launched it was coming off the back of a lot of hype and huge publisher investment in Japan, 3DS will not have that luxury.
Publishers still saw 3DS as a potential means of generating a large chunk of their revenue from, but the handheld market has changed with only a few players investing a lot, but we've lost some publishers whose games would grow the install base at an early stage I think.
Smartphones were indeed around back then to do enough damage (I'd say DS's sharp decline in both software and hardware sales was due to the iPhone and how it cannibalised the type of games that would have been made for DS), but the way these games are created and the best ways to generate the most money has changed, games-as-a-service and games that employ psychological tricks and other F2P tactics tend to be the most successful but their dominance in revenue terms has imposed high entry barriers on developers who would once put out pay-once $3 games.
Meanwhile the economics of the App Store will change in a big way for the first time ever, as Apple launches what some are dubbing as "App Store 2.0". There's an increased emphasis on subscriptions (with a perceived incentive from revenue split) that would incentivise developers to focus on games-as-a-service type games or sell monthly subscriptions for services (including microtransactions) within games.
New audiences are being brought up on this sort of game (or "game", depending on what you think of them), rather than the old models of game development (which still exist on iOS/Android, but successes are either few or far between or don't generate nearly enough revenue to make a "rational" publisher pursue them).
The question is where a new Nintendo device fits in with all that, I'd say it will have a much harder time fitting in today than a handheld did in 2011, but that of course depends on what the NX actually is. And it depends on how successful Nintendo will be at courting those users, who only play games-as-a-service on smart devices today, over to the NX. The next two mobile games don't seem like they'll exist to expand the audience on Nintendo's platforms, but that's probably because the NX isn't launching for another 9 months...
dreamlongdead
Member
60 million is a respectable number.
I'm glad the 3DS delivered on the games front. There is a lot of great stuff to play on it. The original eShop content added extra options in addition to the standard retail games (which are still awesome), but I don't really mess with the Virtual Console. The DS compability is obviously a godsend.
I have had a handful of issues with the hardware, so Nintendo needs to improve that aspect. I don't play with 3D on, so that feature did nothing for me. It contributed to the poor launch. I recognize some people actually like 3D, but adding it was an overall mistake.
I still love my system, and play it all the time despite those issues.
I'm glad the 3DS delivered on the games front. There is a lot of great stuff to play on it. The original eShop content added extra options in addition to the standard retail games (which are still awesome), but I don't really mess with the Virtual Console. The DS compability is obviously a godsend.
I have had a handful of issues with the hardware, so Nintendo needs to improve that aspect. I don't play with 3D on, so that feature did nothing for me. It contributed to the poor launch. I recognize some people actually like 3D, but adding it was an overall mistake.
I still love my system, and play it all the time despite those issues.
Different times, different budgets, different mobile competition and thus very different third-party support.
Third-party game releases divided by region
America:
GBA: 950
3DS: 344
Other (Europe etc.):
GBA: 848
3DS: 384
Japan:
GBA: 679
3DS: 472
It's especially telling that in Japan, 3DS is already many million over GBA final LTD but it's unlikely 3DS is going to receive the same quantity of games from third-party (the cause is not just a matter of HW userbase !).
Again very different situation.
KillerMan91
Member
Well yeah. Very different times. I really don't think the sheer amount of releases tells the whole picture of third party support of any specific platform. There are simply way less releases nowadays on all platforms (games take more money and time to make). I mean PS4 will not probably get anywhere near the same amount of retail releases as PS2 but in reality it has the support of pretty much the whole industry just like PS2 had.