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[TheRedSnifit]

This would be a valid observation if the problem was that Basic units were clogging the pipeline while Premiums were hard to come by, but that's not the case. I don't see how the situation would have been helped at all by only having the more expensive Premium SKU.

We do know that the Premium bundles are selling significantly better than the Basic ones, so unless you have data regarding the types of units lying around, I have a slight evidence advantage. Granted, I'm not an exec at Nintendo and can't verify it, but it's as good a theory as any.

 

[shinra-bansho]

This is a pretty decent launch, if not above average. I suspect that a lot of their woes came from selling two different packages: everybody wants the premium package, but those only make up about 50% of available units. They effectively halved their supply.

The issue isn't supply. It's demand. I don't know where you pulled that "50%" number from.

Nintendo's charts show us there were about ~1M units in the global retail channel as at December 31st 2012. Substantially more than past console launches (off the top of my head ~300K for the 360 and ~500K for the PS3.)

 

[Steve Youngblood]

We do know that the Premium bundles are selling significantly better than the Basic ones, so unless you have data regarding the types of units lying around, I have a slight evidence advantage. Granted, I'm not an exec at Nintendo and can't verify it, but it's as good a theory as any.

What evidence do you want? You can go online right now to any retailer and order yourself a Deluxe or a Basic model. This has been the case for some time. Your theory that they would have been better off not wasting valuable shelf space on the Basic and instead only releasing the more successful Deluxe only makes sense if there's a supply limitation for the Deluxe, which there clearly isn't. This theory was only plausible for about the first couple of weeks of the launch. For most of December, you would have been very hard pressed to make the case that Premium units were hard to come by.

 

[Minions]

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/nint...wii-u-sales-trail-nRQd4mfSQdy_oo8dJKNZWg.html

Video summary of the forecast changes/outlook from Bloomberg "analysts".

 

[Shayan]

impressive Wii U sales

 

[TheRedSnifit]

What evidence do you want? You can go online right now to any retailer and order yourself a Deluxe or a Basic model. This has been the case for some time. Your theory that they would have been better off not wasting valuable shelf space on the Basic and instead only releasing the more successful Deluxe only makes sense if there's a supply limitation for the Deluxe, which there clearly isn't. This theory was only plausible for about the first couple of weeks of the launch. For most of December, you would have been very hard pressed to make the case that Premium units were hard to come by.

"It was the first time Nintendo released two models of the game console at the same time ... and I believe there was a challenge with balancing this. Specifically, inventory levels for the premium, deluxe package was unbalanced as many people wanted that version and couldn't find it."
~Satoru Iwata, January 7

Now, it's very likely that the issue has since been resolved; it's probably guaranteed. However, I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that Nintendo's CEO knows a thing or two about the company, and that the Basic/Premium deal had at least some effect on sales.

 

[netBuff]

"It was the first time Nintendo released two models of the game console at the same time ... and I believe there was a challenge with balancing this. Specifically, inventory levels for the premium, deluxe package was unbalanced as many people wanted that version and couldn't find it."
~Satoru Iwata, January 7

Now, it's very likely that the issue has since been resolved; it's probably guaranteed. However, I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that Nintendo's CEO knows a thing or two about the company, and that the Basic/Premium deal had at least some effect on sales.

Anecdotal, but I was able to find a Premium Pack on launch day without issue. I really don't believe this in the least, we haven't seen much of any supply issues with the Wii U for either model.

This was nothing but PR.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Now, it's very likely that the issue has since been resolved; it's probably guaranteed. However, I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that Nintendo's CEO knows a thing or two about the company, and that the Basic/Premium deal had at least some effect on sales.

My problem is that statements like these are completely flimsy and devoid of any insight. At least some effect? Can we ballpark how many more sales could have been had if Premiums weren't sold out while Basics went unpurchased? Because based on anecdotal observations of inventory in local stores, eBay prices, and online inventories that could be checked 24/7, it seemed pretty clear that Premium shortages only affected the first couple of weeks of the launch.

I'm not sure I understand why that quotation is supposed to be significant just because Nintendo's CEO uttered it.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm not sure how you got from that that half the units are Basic.

And at the end of the day, supply is ample for anyone who wants one. There isn't a shortage of Wii U's there's a shortage of customers.

-----

Anyway, thanks to Road's pixel counting we have, to Dec 31st:

Japan:
Shipped: 830K
Sold: 630K
Channel: 200K

Americas:
Shipped: 1.32M
Sold: 890K
Channel: 430K

Other:
Shipped: 900K
Sold: 430K
Channel: 470K

Total in channel 1.1M - whatever was sold in other territories (Canada, other Asia, AU/NZ).

The Americas and Japan supply should be sold through over the quarter. The Other one - I don't see it.

 

[metalslimer]

Eh....with the Wii U headed below 10k in Japan it will be really hard to sell 200k Jan-March.Depending on how hard Wii u drops in January (could be sub 150k) it could also be hard in America. This is why I think without some big maneuvering they won't even hit the 4 million shipped.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Eh....with the Wii U headed below 10k in Japan it will be really hard to sell 200k Jan-March.

That was up to end of 2012.

Through to week 4 it's ~750K - so 80K for the next 8 weeks.

But even selling through all this stock - I can't see them getting retailers to take another million.

I was just providing a possible reason for why sales were horribly lower than predictions.

There's a simple reason that sales are horribly lower than predictions. They had unrealistic expectations and demand isn't there.

 

[metalslimer]

That was up to end of 2012.

Through to week 4 it's ~750K - so 80K for the next 8 weeks.

But even selling through all this stock - I can't see them getting retailers to take another million.

Ah brain fart. I still have doubts on the American sell through though.

 

[TheRedSnifit]

My problem is that statements like these are completely flimsy and devoid of any insight. At least some effect? Can we ballpark how many more sales could have been had if Premiums weren't sold out while Basics went unpurchased? Because based on anecdotal observations of inventory in local stores, eBay prices, and online inventories that could be checked 24/7, it seemed pretty clear that Premium shortages only affected the first couple of weeks of the launch.

I'm not sure I understand why that quotation is supposed to be significant just because Nintendo's CEO uttered it.

I don't mean to sound uncooperative, but I honestly think that Nintendo's CEO knows what's going on better than you. It's possible that he was making up excuses, but I think you're above accusing everybody of lying.

How much of an effect? I don't know, I was just providing a possible reason for why sales were horribly lower than predictions.

Anecdotal, but I was able to find a Premium Pack on launch day without issue. I really don't believe this in the least, we haven't seen much of any supply issues with the Wii U for either model.

This was nothing but PR.

I got a Wii U in late December, and had to settle on a basic pack because Wal-Mart, Best Buy, and Gamestop didn't have the premium pack; I don't go around claiming it's evidence.

As for it being "nothing but PR," you aren't necessarily wrong, but it's hardly an argument.

 

[netBuff]

I don't mean to sound uncooperative, but I honestly think that Nintendo's CEO knows what's going on better than you. It's possible that he was making up excuses, but I think you're above accusing everybody of lying.

How much of an effect? I don't know, I was just providing a possible reason for why sales were horribly lower than predictions.



I got a Wii U in late December, and had to settle on a basic pack because Wal-Mart, Best Buy, and Gamestop didn't have the premium pack; I don't go around claiming it's evidence.

As for it being "nothing but PR," you aren't necessarily wrong, but it's hardly an argument.

It is still highly unlikely: If this were a valid reason for the very low Wii U sales, it would have been mentioned again today.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Ah brain fart. I still have doubts on the American sell through though.

Keep in mind the American sellthrough is US only. Canada tends to be around 10% of US sales generally, and it's also one of Nintendo's historically stronger markets, so there could be another ~90k accounted for in 2012.

 

[Narpas Sword0]

We do know that the Premium bundles are selling significantly better than the Basic ones, so unless you have data regarding the types of units lying around, I have a slight evidence advantage. Granted, I'm not an exec at Nintendo and can't verify it, but it's as good a theory as any.

If that was the case then Nintendo would simply alter their manufacturing mix and maintain their 5.5 million unit forecast. Also, I'm pretty sure NPD average sales price indicates that the existing mix is not 50/50.

People do not want to buy this console.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Premium/Bundles accounted for 75-85% of sales in the regions we got breakdowns for. There weren't any lasting supply constraints past the first week or so, but the Basic model has really proven exceptionally unpopular.

 

[TheRedSnifit]

It is still highly unlikely: If this were a valid reason for the very low Wii U sales, it would have been mentioned again today.

It's briefly mentioned in the Q3 Financial Briefing:

On the other hand, sales of Wii U progressed favorably in the beginning except for the imbalance of supply and demand between the Wii U DELUXE SET and the Wii U BASIC SET.
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/130131/03.html

Assuming he's telling the truth, we can establish that it played at least a minor role in the less-than-stellar sales.

 

[Narpas Sword0]

It's briefly mentioned in the Q3 Financial Briefing:

On the other hand, sales of Wii U progressed favorably in the beginning except for the imbalance of supply and demand between the Wii U DELUXE SET and the Wii U BASIC SET.
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/130131/03.html

Assuming he's telling the truth, we can establish that it played at least a minor role in the less-than-stellar sales.

NPD's average sales price indicates that the majority of Wii U's sold are the premium pack.

If Nintendo felt there was an issue with their manufacturing mix they would fix it within days, not months. And it was fixed, before November was over.

Do you seriously think Nintendo reduced their forecast by 33% because they just can't figure out how to paint more consoles black and put a bigger SD card in them?

 

[TheRedSnifit]

Do you seriously think Nintendo reduced their forecast by 33% because they just can't figure out how to paint more consoles black and put a bigger SD card in them?

I said it was a "minor" reason, and it was clearly important enough to bring up in the financial briefing.

 

[netBuff]

I said it was a "minor" reason, and it was clearly important enough to bring up in the financial briefing.

The wording doesn't suggest this being much of a factor, they are clearly outlining not enough people wanting the system as the main reason for faltering sales:

On the other hand, sales of Wii U progressed favorably in the beginning except for the imbalance of supply and demand between the Wii U DELUXE SET and the Wii U BASIC SET. However, since we were unable to incite enough excitement in society, we have failed to maintain its momentum after the turn of the year.

 

[gamergirly]

I paid $3.80/gallon of gas yesterday. Reducing that by 20% would be $3.04.

A reduction of 20% is headline-worthy.

20% is noticeable but not significant. Significant would be like $5/gallon or $1.25/gallon for gas

 

[AzaK]

Holy shit, NSMB is at 30 million... Mario Kart Wii is at 34 million...

Yup and I bet they cost a lot less to make than say Uncharted, which means Uber profit.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Hmm... further to this:

Japan:
Shipped: 830K
Sold: 630K
Channel: 200K

Americas:
Shipped: 1.32M
Sold: 890K
Channel: 430K

Approx total in channel 630K.

Historical comparison to the PS3.

US+Japan
Shipped: 1.7M
Sold-through: ~1.15M
Channel at 31st Dec 06: ~550K

Following quarter:
US sell-through: ~500K
Japan sell-through: ~350K
US+Japan: 850K
Shipped: 1.8M including 1M+ for European launch.

So US+Japanese retailers sold through the launch shipments and took an additional ~800K units in the quarter following launch - selling 300K of those units with 500K in the channel going into CYQ2.

----

If the Wii U sells like the PS3 did its second quarter, it may be able to make Nintendo's projection. But at least in Japan, it looks like it will end up selling a lot less. NPD should give us an idea of its performance going forward for the quarter - if sub-200K it's pretty dire. While Europe isn't making the situation rosier - as I think they may struggle to even sell-through the launch shipment this quarter.

 

[BNB82]

Considering that most people think we'll have at least one new console from either Sony or Microsoft by the end of the year, Nintendo's time to be the "new thing" is right now. It doesn't seem "hot" enough to do well after the new systems come out. It is like deja vu with the Wii for this current generation.

 

[marc^o^]

Mario Kart Wii at 34M, not bad. Did they give MK 7 figures?

 

[Tenki]

Mario Kart Wii at 34M, not bad. Did they give MK 7 figures?

7.73M.

 

[Bruno MB]

Super Mario 3D Land keeping pace with Mario Kart 7, that's very impressive.

 

[XPE]

Super Mario 3D Land keeping pace with Mario Kart 7, that's very impressive.

How is that compared to other 3D marios?

 

[Frankfurter]

I'm pretty sure that's an excellent result for a 3D Mario. I sort of feared that 3D Land would fare much worse. It me be on track to sell in the typical madness-Nintendo-franchise way, so 15m+ aren't impossible imo.

 

[grimshawish]

How is that compared to other 3D marios?

Best selling in Japan ever (taking DS/N64 SM separately).
Think Galaxy is like 10m+

Depending where 3D Land 2 comes in; it should potentially be the best selling at the end of the generation. Must be the quickest selling.

Only just noticed Paper Mario has shipped 1.83m; pretty great result.

 

[Celine]

How is that compared to other 3D marios?

As of now only 3D Marios that sold more are Mario 64 (and DS) and SMG but it is still early to judge where SM3DL LTD can land.

 

[AniHawk]

i wonder where super mario 64 ds wound up. i think at last check, it was actually nearing what the original super mario 64 did. it's probably a contest between sm64, sm64 ds, and smg1 for best-selling 3d mario.

3d land will beat it no problem though. 8m after a year is pretty fucking good, and it'll probably sell at least 3m over the course of the 3ds's life.

 

[Bruno MB]

Worldwide shipment for Super Mario (3D) platformers:

[N64] Super Mario 64 - 11.910.000
[Wii] Super Mario Galaxy - 10.680.000
[NDS] Super Mario 64 DS - 10.370.000
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land - 8.000.000
[Wii] Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 6.360.000
[NGC] Super Mario Sunshine - 5.910.000

 

[noobie]

I'm not sure how you got from that that half the units are Basic.

And at the end of the day, supply is ample for anyone who wants one. There isn't a shortage of Wii U's there's a shortage of customers.

-----

Anyway, thanks to Road's pixel counting we have, to Dec 31st:

Japan:
Shipped: 830K
Sold: 630K
Channel: 200K

Americas:
Shipped: 1.32M
Sold: 890K
Channel: 430K

Other:
Shipped: 900K
Sold: 430K
Channel: 470K

Total in channel 1.1M - whatever was sold in other territories (Canada, other Asia, AU/NZ).

The Americas and Japan supply should be sold through over the quarter. The Other one - I don't see it.

where is the Road's original post. Has he given the numbers for other platforms also?

 

[Steve Youngblood]

20% is noticeable but not significant. Significant would be like $5/gallon or $1.25/gallon for gas

So, you've arbitrarily decided that a 40% increase and a 67% decrease are significant, but not a 20% decrease. Got it.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I think SM3DL is going to be the first 3D Mario to crack 15m lifetime.

 

[gamergirly]

So, you've arbitrarily decided that a 40% increase and a 67% decrease are significant, but not a 20% decrease. Got it.

20% is not a bleak outlook or doomed is what I'm saying. Noticeable but not significant

 

[Steve Youngblood]

20% is not a bleak outlook or doomed is what I'm saying. Noticeable but not significant

I really wish that we could quit throwing out this adjective. It only serves as a disingenuous comparison to counter a point nobody ever made, and it really obfuscates clear conversation.

"This certainly isn't good news. Nintendo might be in some trouble going forward if they can't turn this around."

"Can we please stop acting like they're doomed? The situation isn't as bad as some of you are making it out to be."

I honestly just feel like conversation can get very tedious at times as there is a desire to counter broad points by painting them as more hyperbolic than they are, and when pressed further, there's a retreat to trivial semantic distinction. "Noticeable but not significant" would be one such clarification that says nothing.

 

[shinra-bansho]

In what world is slashing a sales forecast by 3.5M units not "significant." :s

where is the Road's original post. Has he given the numbers for other platforms also?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=510874

 

[Narpas Sword0]

20% is noticeable but not significant. Significant would be like $5/gallon or $1.25/gallon for gas

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100322235/Gas_Prices_Plunge_to_New_2012_Low

$3.25 did the trick.


You'll recall that I said "headline worthy" and not "doomed"

The semantic difference between "noticeable" and "significant" is neither noticeable nor significant

Also note that Iwata is discussing the possibility of his resignation

 

[M-PG71C]

Well, I'm sorry but I don't believe you. I just can't reconcile your forum behavior with what you're saying here.

As for the earnings, profit was a nice surprise, and I think the Wii U figures are on the higher end of what most of us expected given what's known of sellthrough and sales rankings. I also think the revised earnings seem reasonable. This is far from a great result, but it definitely could be worse too.

That's the big piece to take home. Looking at the year in all, I don't see why Nintendo will not be able to achieve their long-term results. What people don't understand is that in business, "righting the ship" takes considerable time and the mistakes you made in the past have a tendency to have linger. Despite this, I think Nintendo is well on their way.

I think one of the things they really need to take a good long look at is their marketing however, or rather the lack of.