Support NeoGAF

[Vena]

...tells us that the 3ds is on its way out.

Does anyone dispute that a four, going on five, year old console is going out? It's old, its market share isn't going to grow, and it was birthed into a very chaotic time.

I will be very interested to see what they do going forward, though, with their handheld line to position it more strongly against the mobile offerings and the new mobile game culture.

 

[E-phonk]

haven't seen any proof or test that show how the Wii U is more effcient than a PS4 or X1. Been a device with lower energy consumption doesn't necessarily makes it a marble of efficiency (to not use the word "stunning").

Wii U doesn't have to be.
I don't think there is anything specifically wrong with the hardware (actually I do - in the sense that the powerPC architecture scares away developers, and it takes extra devtime to port to wiiu), but in pure power the WiiU does an ok job subjectively. I would argue it's flaws lie somewhere else. In communcation, in the lack of support, in the lack making of the peripheral (gamepad), that I actually like as a user, essential to the experience. In the OS that is "ok in a nintendo kind of way" but took a very long time to get where it is now. In the complete lack of 3rd party support. In the lack of extra services etc that people kind of expect nowadays.

But the hardware of the WiiU is certainly okay. I'm actually surprised when I compare the fast loading times to my ps3. I also love booting directly into a game using the gamepad. These are little innovations that go largely unnoticed until you don't have them anymore.

Does anyone dispute that a four, going on five, year old console is going out?

No one. Certainly because the advantages in the mobile space have been amazing in these last few years.
Nintendo should have a new handheld ready in 2015, but I think it'll take them till 2016 to get there.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

You can't compare Nintendo and Sony. PS4 is a device for Sony that finally looks like bringing together their disparate media and electronics divisions, plus they are looking at much a higher ARPU because they are selling services like PS+, PS Now and PS Vue via the box, additionally I expect they have signed a revenue sharing deal with Spotify for users who link their PSN accounts to Spotify or purchase subs via PS4/PSN. So you have online gaming, game streaming, TV/movies and music all of which will be sold through one box, plus they make money from the hardware and accessories, as well as licencing revenue and first party software sales from WWS.

Without the money sinks of Blu-ray and Cell, the PS3 could have achieved a lot of the above but the group was so waylaid by cost cutting on the core unit and fixing a deficient OS/network that they were never able to concentrate on bringing media to their box properly.

Nintendo exist to sell gaming products and gaming products alone. The business model is completely different. The Wii U is not a gateway device to other Nintendo services because they don't have other services to sell.

 

[Rösti]

Next fiscal year is going to be interesting.

The numbers will be stunning.

QOL, console for emerging markets, The Legend of Zelda, Mario Maker, Star Fox, Splatoon, potential announcement/reveal of Nintendo 3DS successor, and likely heavy focus on amiibo related things, plus unannounced games for Wii U and 3DS. Even without that joke, I think it could be a very interesting FY 2015 and the numbers appeasing.

 

[Calamari41]

October 2013: Wii Party U
January 2014: Wii Fit U
July 2014: Wii Sports Club

That's after launching with NintendoLand and Sing Party in November 2012. Although nothing in that vein has been announced for the near future, while the release schedule is filled with hardcore Nintendo fan pandering, so the shift does seem to have happened.

Exactly, though your list is a bit misleading. Wii Sports Club and Wii Fit U both launched digitally in early November of 2013. Disc versions were released at those later dates that you listed. But anyway, all of these were out before the Wii U was a year old, indicating that they were greenlighted and developed before it was apparent that the Wii U was going to be in monumental trouble. And as you said, not a word about anything along those lines since.

 

[Vena]

No one. Certainly because the advantages in the mobile space have been amazing in these last few years.
Nintendo should have a new handheld ready in 2015, but I think it'll take them till 2016 to get there.

I think that's too soon for it to be finalized especially if they are indeed working with AMD on the ARMv8a which, in and of itself, is new as is AMD's work with ARM. I think we'll start seeing specs and leaks of it circa-end of 2015CY but I wouldn't expect the actual hardware to be done and mass-produced until 2016FY.

A lot of this comes down to R&D time (which has been, naturally, going on for a while) and the logistics of actually producing the hardware.

 

[vinnygambini]

QOL, console for emerging markets, The Legend of Zelda, Mario Maker, Star Fox, Splatoon, potential announcement/reveal of Nintendo 3DS successor, and likely heavy focus on amiibo related things, plus unannounced games for Wii U and 3DS. Even without that joke, I think it could be a very interesting FY 2015 and the numbers appeasing.

I think so. One should also see a greater focus on the digital side; expect Star Fox to be a downloadable game with episodic content (a la Resident Evil Revelations 2) + Devil's Third to be a F2P title (personal prediction of mine - retail has the makings of a major bomba).

 

[emb]

No one. Certainly because the advantages in the mobile space have been amazing in these last few years.
Nintendo should have a new handheld ready in 2015, but I think it'll take them till 2016 to get there.

If not for the 'New' 3DS, I'd be sure that we should expect a new system in 2015. Seems a bit much to sell people a handheld that can play new games (ok, well, just the one, it being Xenoblade) and then immediately turn around in less than a year and have the real "new" product ready.

 

[jcm]

Indeed it isn't. I didn't say it was. It is illegal to intentionally mislead investors, be it for financial gain or, as according to the poster in question, to annoy them in some sort of misguided attempt to impress strangers on the Internet, or whatever "trolling" the investors is supposed to mean.

Eh, I think he was just being generous. The most likely explanation is that they're incompetent. Personally, I'd rather people think I'm conducting some elaborate experiment than think I don't know what the fuck I'm doing.

 

[Vena]

If not for the 'New' 3DS, I'd be sure that we should expect a new system in 2015. Seems a bit much to sell people a handheld that can play new games (ok, well, just the one, it being Xenoblade) and then immediately turn around in less than a year and have the real "new" product ready.

DSi was two years, putting us at 2016 Q3 if we follow the same trend.

Its not unreasonable but Nintendo will have to do something in the interim, then, to keep themselves more relevant with their aged hardware.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Does anyone dispute that a four, going on five, year old console is going out? It's old, its market share isn't going to grow, and it was birthed into a very chaotic time.

I will be very interested to see what they do going forward, though, with their handheld line to position it more strongly against the mobile offerings and the new mobile game culture.

Seems like the plan is to remove features such as power adapters, and to make the transfer experience as convoluted as possible.

(Yes, I'm still bitter about the power adapter).

 

[TunaLover]

I think so. One should also see a greater focus on the digital side; expect Star Fox to be a downloadable game with episodic content (a la Resident Evil Revelations 2) + Devil's Third to be a F2P title (personal prediction of mine - retail has the makings of a major bomba).

 

[jholmes]

Thought I'd mentioned this earlier but it's worth saying now anyway: Nintendo needs to figure out what the hell is going on in Japan because they are getting killed in calendar 2015 compared to PS4 sales. The numbers aren't enough to really matter given that this is the weakest month of the year, but they need to nip this thing in the bud.

Eh, I think he was just being generous. The most likely explanation is that they're incompetent. Personally, I'd rather people think I'm conducting some elaborate experiment than think I don't know what the fuck I'm doing.

I don't know if I'd say incompetent as so much wildly optimistic. They're just made-up numbers so it can be hard. Peg it too low and investors and commentators will say they've just given up.

 

[Vena]

Seems like the plan is to remove features such as power adapters, and to make the transfer experience as convoluted as possible.

(Yes, I'm still bitter about the power adapter).

I mean... okay.

Get back to me in a couple of years if the 4DSxWithDante comes without a power adapter. Then we can share a glass of wine and be equally pissed.

 

[vinnygambini]

Seems like the plan is to remove features such as power adapters, and to make the transfer experience as convoluted as possible.

(Yes, I'm still bitter about the power adapter).

Cosmic pls

I'm sorry but this will most likely be the case ;.;

 

[TheDarkTriforce]

Do they also announce new games on those investor meetings?

 

[Mpl90]

It's more like the overshipment in 2013 heavily influenced Q4 FY2014 and Q1 FY2015 shipments. Heck, actually, I think last quarter shipments have been "limited" as well (i.e. pretty near to actual sales), probably due to New 3DS launch incoming in the West and not wanting to have too many old models on shelves.

Not that sales haven't been down YOY, mind you, but what happened last year had a lasting effect on shipments this year.

Just to get a clearer idea of what I mean, going by the numbers posted by Bruno MB

Nintendo 3DS

3rd Quarter, Fiscal Year 2015 shipment
Japan - 2,090,000
The Americas - 1,500,000
Other - 1,390,000
Total - 4,980

3rd Quarter, Fiscal Year 2014 actual sales
Japan - 1,598,600
The Americas - about 1,460,000 (from US)
Other - we have no concrete numbers, but I'd estimate 1 million at least, considering it's the Holiday season

Total - 4,058,600 at least. Probably more like 4,200,000 - 4,250,000, but let's stay with the minimum for Other

3rd Quarter, Fiscal Year 2014 shipment
Japan - 2,430,000
The Americas - 2,930,000
Other - 2,400,000

Total - 7,760,000

3rd Quarter, Fiscal Year 2014 actual sales
Japan - 1,774,945
The Americas - around 2,322,000 (for US)
Other - again, unfortunately there aren't concrete numbers for overall Europe. However, sales were surely higher than 1,000,000, and I'd add surely higher than 1,500,000 as well, considering the overall retail perfomance in US. Probably more like 1,700,000 - 1,900,000

Total - 5,796,945 - 5,996,945, depending on actual Others numbers

I.e. sales surely dropped in the West compared to Q3 FY2014, we can't deny it. And it's a consistent drop. But it's also quite apparent how shipments have been far stricter to the actual sales (especially in the West), compared to what happened at the end of 2013. And I think stricter to what happened in the past years too (not in the same way as 2013 v.s. 2014, though, of course). Probably both because, despite Q2 being better in this sense, there were still units left on shelves to sell, and (I think the biggest factor) Nintendo didn't want to overship too many older 3DS XL and 3DS OG units with the launch of New 3DS (the model that will substitute the older 3DS SKUs) being near for the West. Thus, the YOY shipments drop is quite increased by this.

 

[marc^o^]

Do they also announce new games on those investor meetings?

Based on the suspicious lack of news these last 10 years, all seems to indicate Iwata will reveal the new Wave Race today.

 

[TheDarkTriforce]

Based on the suspicious lack of news these last 10 years, all seems to indicate Iwata will reveal the new Wave Race today.

Why do you think it will be Wave Race?

 

[marc^o^]

Why do you think it will be Wave Race?

Because each time I predict this announcement and at one point, I will be right

 

[TheDarkTriforce]

Because each time I predict this announcement and at one point, I will be right

So they usually announce new games during those meetings?

 

[Rösti]

So they usually announce new games during those meetings?

No. Though hardware like QOL has been announced/revealed in results briefings.

 

[TheDarkTriforce]

No. Though hardware like QOL has been announced/revealed in results briefings.

Thanks

 

[jholmes]

So they usually announce new games during those meetings?

They will almost certainly not reveal anything in terms of new games but broad strategy will be discussed, something like Club Nintendo or Virtual Console is a possibility. Everything we know about QOL has been from these meetings.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Honestly, it was a good year for Nintendo because all their big hitters are out (Kart and Smash) and the effect of that spreads at least over a good period to boost whatever fortunes, and Amiibos pave over at least a little of the rather large cracks of their waning portable business and of course the WiiU's shambling undead journey. It does get difficult however to see where they're going now. Wont be another Kart or Smash for a while. Maybe Mario Puzzle & Dragons is going to be a ruddy nice little earner?

Doubling down on taking money from the lifer fans is clearly the approach going forward and it makes sense. Capitalise on that market that will go to bat for you whenever and drain every last drop through merch, start some subscription service stuff, etc.

Not sure if we're seeing many signs of them spending inordinately much on R&D it seems(?), which would be a bit worrying of course for the chances of their next hardware being fairly dull/expected and underpowered again though.

 

[TheDarkTriforce]

They will almost certainly not reveal anything in terms of new games but broad strategy will be discussed, something like Club Nintendo or Virtual Console is a possibility. Everything we know about QOL has been from these meetings.

Thanks

 

[Hero of Legend]

Yep, sounds utterly disgusting. Fox deserves SO MUCH MORE than that.

 

[marc^o^]

Not sure if we're seeing many signs of them spending inordinately much on R&D it seems(?)

It would confort my belief they will invest on platforms they have. Produce as many hits as they can, increase the attach rate, seek growth through a price cut they can now afford.

 

[TheMagician]

It's impossible for Nintendo to come back from this as a company unless they create something new and unique like they did with the Wii.

A Nintendo console aimed at the standard market isn't going to be successful.

NES > SNES > N64 > GC > Wii U > Hell

Nintendo's record in this market is a downward slope towards oblivion and I find it incredibly hard to even imagine a gaming world where their consoles are selling even half that of the competition.

They need to go to the drawing board and come back with something that is new and different because the same again will just lead to further blocked paths.

 

[Pie and Beans]

It would confort my belief they will invest on platforms they have. Produce as many hits as they can, increase the attach rate, seek growth through a price cut they can now afford.

'Growth' is not going to happen for the WiiU and they must know that themselves. Its an unwanted product, and both of its main "spears" are now out. Zelda isn't going to be enough nor is a magic sum of top quality games. Its destiny is set in stone at this point.

This is ignoring as well the now positively ancient 3DS. The faster they can introduce the "Brothers" systems that share library and can be pushed as such, the better. Thats obviously got to be in the fairly far along stages now, but are we seeing enough money being pumped into them for it to not be another half-step disappointment situation again?

 

[Caramello]

'Growth' is not going to happen for the WiiU and they must know that themselves. Its an unwanted product, and both of its main "spears" are now out. Zelda isn't going to be enough nor is a magic sum of top quality games. Its destiny is set in stone at this point.

This is ignoring as well the now positively ancient 3DS. The faster they can introduce the "Brothers" systems that share library and can be pushed as such, the better. Thats obviously got to be in the fairly far along stages now, but are we seeing enough money being pumped into them for it to not be another half-step disappointment situation again?

Iwata never said that the next two systems would share the same library of games.

 

[Plinko]

It's impossible for Nintendo to come back from this as a company unless they create something new and unique like they did with the Wii.

A Nintendo console aimed at the standard market isn't going to be successful.

NES > SNES > N64 > GC > Wii U > Hell

Nintendo's record in this market is a downward slope towards oblivion and I find it incredibly hard to even imagine a gaming world where their consoles are selling even half that of the competition.

They need to go to the drawing board and come back with something that is new and different because the same again will just lead to further blocked paths.

Since we haven't seen one of these in over a decade, I don't see how anyone can definitively say this.

 

[finngamer]

So, Mario Kart 8 has sold 4.77 million. Only 0.7 million to go until it surpasses Super Circuit, and Polygon publicly apologizes for their clickbait article.

 

[StreetsAhead]

So, Mario Kart 8 has sold 4.77 million. Only 0.7 million to go until it surpasses Super Circuit, and Polygon publicly apologizes for their clickbait article.

I mean, that article was dumb (and that pie chart, too) but 'Well, we were wrong. Mario Kart 8 is only the second worst selling entry in the franchise's history. Congratulations!' does sound like a hollow victory.

 

[LegendofLex]

Since we haven't seen one of these in over a decade, I don't see how anyone can definitively say this.

Wii U is one of these. There's no way a multiplatform style gamepad with a screen on it whose main attractions beyond Off-TV Play are "enhanced multiplatform games," traditional Nintendo franchises (vs. Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Brain Age, etc.), and HD graphics is anything but a compromise on mass market appeal for the traditional gamer/Nintendo audience.

 

[hatchx]

Iwata never said that the next two systems would share the same library of games.

He didn't say it directly, but both he and Miyamoto have alluded to it. We atleast know they are going to merge the architecture somehow.

When exactly is the investors meeting tonight?

 

[finngamer]

I mean, that article was dumb (and that pie chart, too) but 'Well, we were wrong. Mario Kart 8 is only the second worst selling entry in the franchise's history. Congratulations!' does sound like a hollow victory.

Sure, but while "second worst selling" is correct, so is "sold three to four times what we projected". Not to mention it has the largest attach rate by far. That might be a hollow victory for the Wii U, but certainly not for Mario Kart 8, which is the subject here.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'd rather be in Phil's stylish yet affordable boots.

If GAF was incharge of Nintendo...

That's what happened when Nintendo was in charge of Nintendo anyway.

Seriously.

3DS HW for FY16 should be between 5-6 million
Wii U HW for FY16 should be between 2.6-3 million

I'm assuming a price cut is factored into that Wii U number.

3DS number seems optimistic too considering even with Western n3DS launch it looks like a tough call to meet even revised forecast for current FY? Past Q4's have rarely gotten up past 1.9M.

 

[marc^o^]

both of its main "spears" are now out.

And that's a good thing: it's easier to sell the Wii U now that Smash is out, on top of Mario Kart. They will need to keep pushing marketing towards these 2 system sellers, and they will do. Now even if Wii U will have other cool games this year, growth will remain slow if they can't cut price. I assume they will cut the price near E3, giving traction to their most ambitious new IP in years, Splatoon.

I believe 2015 Wii U's lineup will be praised a lot again, and its underdog status will keep giving it a cool image. This process is already happening in the press. If a price cut occurs in that context, it will be considered as a second console by gamers who can afford it + be affordable to more 3DS kids. The good news for Wii U is, it started so bad there's still so much room to grow Nintendo is a patient company. I don't think they are satisfied with this slow growth, as I don't think they have a better alternative in the short term. So we are probably in for Wii U getting more awesome 1st party games for a while.

 

[Rubixcuba]

When exactly is the investors meeting tonight?

Second this question, can we expect any information in spite of no one live tweeting?

 

[vinnygambini]

I'm assuming a price cut is factored into that Wii U number.

3DS number seems optimistic too considering even with Western n3DS launch it looks like a tough call to meet even revised forecast for current FY? Past Q4's have rarely gotten up past 1.9M.

I think a decline between 20-25% and 40-50% for Wii U HW & 3DS HW respectively based on FY15 forecasts seems fair.

I doubt one will see a price cut as Wii U production lines will most likely resume.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Sure, but while "second worst selling" is correct, so is "sold three to four times what we projected". Not to mention it has the largest attach rate by far. That might be a hollow victory for the Wii U, but certainly not for Mario Kart 8, which is the subject here.

Lipsticking a pig.

Cosmic pls

I know it's petty. They broke my heart. /godfather2

 

[Rösti]

Second this question, can we expect any information in spite of no one live tweeting?

The results briefing will happen at corresponding time:

Slides will be up a few hours after the briefing. I don't know if there is any other way to access the briefing than reading tweets, Nintendo unfortunately offers no webcast.

 

[ZSaberLink]

I assume if Nintendo themselves doesn't the cut the price of the Wii U in FY2016, investors would at least force them to, right?

 

[shinra-bansho]

I think a decline between 20-25% and 40-50% for Wii U HW & 3DS HW respectively based on FY15 forecasts seems fair.

I doubt one will see a price cut as Wii U production lines will most likely resume.

My bad I confused FYTD with forecast. Yep, 3DS sounds reasonable.

Without big mid-year and Holiday tentpoles though, as nothing they have comes close to MK and Smash, not sure about Wii U without a price reduction getting that close (3M) to this FY.

Japanese sales down, I'm guessing US sales are up marginally or flat, Europe the decider?

 

[hatchx]

Second this question, can we expect any information in spite of no one live tweeting?

Last year we go the final Mario Kart 8 boxart and release date, some QOL info, a few years before I think they outlined some VC stuff.

I doubt we'll hear too much, but they usually do drop a few tidbits to get people excited. Maybe a firm release for yoshi/mario maker is the most I could hope for.

 

[vinnygambini]

My bad I confused FYTD with forecast. Yep, 3DS sounds reasonable.

Without big mid-year and Holiday tentpoles though, as nothing they have comes close to MK and Smash, not sure about Wii U without a price reduction getting that close (3M) to this FY.

Japanese sales down, I'm guessing US sales are up marginally or flat, Europe the decider?

Japanese Wii U HW sales are down 40% comparatively to last year; I expect a decline of 30% for FY16.

Wii U HW for other territories should decline by 10-15% in FY16 too.

Zelda Wii U could hit 3 million by year-end; though I expect it's fate to be much of the same to Skyward Sword: front-loaded, and die-off shortly after.

We had 2 three million + sellers in FY15. So we have one 3 million seller with Zelda.

Nintendo's needs another heavy hitter for FY16, which one? That's the question I'm struggling with as their heavy hitters are already out.

 

[Eolz]

The results briefing will happen at corresponding time:

Slides will be up a few hours after the briefing. I don't know if there is any other way to access the briefing than reading tweets, Nintendo unfortunately offers no webcast.

Thx for the countdown.
Some rare times there's some liveblogs with pictures from an economic journalist or so. Didn't see one in a while though, since it's mainly for the full year results or special events.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Nintendo's needs another heavy hitter for FY16, which one? That's the question I'm struggling with as their heavy hitters are already out.

Animal Crossing U, perhaps? I think pairing that with Zelda at the end of this year would be pretty big.

 

[Road]

Trying something new: click for interactive chart.

Handheld yearly sales (that is, the sum of the previous four quarters) are 7.7 million, the lowest since Pokémon reignited the Game Boy (1997, 6.4 million).

If Nintendo meets their forecast, yearly hardware sales will grow to 9 million.