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Nintendo Q3 FY15 Results - Beats Market Expectations; Lowers Full-Year Forecast

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Japanese Wii U HW sales are down 40% comparatively to last year; I expect a decline of 30% for FY16.

Wii U HW for other territories should decline by 10-15% in FY16 too.

Zelda Wii U could hit 3 million by year-end; though I expect it's fate to be much of the same to Skyward Sword: front-loaded, and die-off shortly after.

We had 2 three million + sellers in FY15. So we have one 3 million seller with Zelda.

Nintendo's needs another heavy hitter for FY16, which one? That's the question I'm struggling with as their heavy hitters are already out.

Kind of why I think they should market Splatoon a lot and it's the closest thing they're positioning next FY as a heavy hitter after Zelda. Xeno has the scope, but I'm doubtful it'll explode in any meaningful way. Splatoon looks to be something unique in a very popular genre. Basically it's a kid-friendly competitive TPS, and could introduce some really new mechanics to the genre with its mechanics. We'll see as it's not like Sunset Overdrive did remarkably well either. Maybe a new Animal Crossing would help as well.

They tried with Wii U. Every kids magazine my children received had Wii U ads plastered all over. Even Parents magazine. It didn't work.

It also is/was $300/$350. Trying to appeal to families with a price tag higher than any of your previous consoles didn't work, which is hardly surprising. That alone is likely a huge dealbreaker for most (in addition to the other problems).

So since I can't read Japanese, when is the investors' briefing postponed until?
 
Is QoL actually real? I have my doubts. IMO, it was actually a bluff from Iwata to generate speculation, release the heat away and secure his tenure at a time his job was on the edge. There's berely no info about it for a very long time after Iwata mentioned it early last year.

Now that Nintendo's profits are back, it's about time for the long awaited Wii U price drop, something that will have a boost (temporary or not) on sales.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Is QoL actually real? I have my doubts. IMO, it was actually a bluff from Iwata to generate speculation, release the heat away and secure his tenure at a time his job was on the edge. There's berely no info about it for a very long time after Iwata mentioned it early last year.

Now that Nintendo's profits are back, it's about time for the long awaited Wii U price drop, something that will have a boost (temporary or not) on sales.

They already announced some details last briefing right? Something about sleep and measuring things by just being near your bed? They also said they partnered with ResMed. It was a bluff, he'd be fired immediately. That's just conspiracy theory levels =P.
 

Calamari41

41 > 38
QoL is a dead end, in my opinion. Everybody already has a fitbit. The time for Nintendo to go HAM into that market was when they struck gold with Wii Fit and they were having balance boards fly off the shelf faster than they could make them. They'll have to have some kind of game changer up their sleeves for it to be worth the effort, because they're late getting back to the party they themselves started.
 
They already announced some details last briefing right? Something about sleep and measuring things by just being near your bed? They also said they partnered with ResMed. It was a bluff, he'd be fired immediately. That's just conspiracy theory levels =P.

Yeah...you can't really just lie to your investors like that.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
You're ignoring all the problems with the Wii U and I don't really see how it was a good product for the kids and family audience.



welp

I'm not "ignoring" anything. Wii U has a ton of problems. Where exactly am I "ignoring" these?
 
Now that Nintendo's profits are back, it's about time for the long awaited Wii U price drop, something that will have a boost (temporary or not) on sales.
It is like the 3DS. I have seen so many people put off by the high software prices on 3DS, and Wii U is heading in the same direction (particularly if you want certain older games where your choice is RRP on the eShop or RRP second hand).

But at the same time their software pricing strategy is moving away from retail budget re-releases and towards eShop flash sales of up to 50% off (but that is usually trash NES games like Urban Champion while New Super Mario like is 20% off).
 

Sandfox

Member
I'm not "ignoring" anything. Wii U has a ton of problems. Where exactly am I "ignoring" these?

Your post implied that the Wii U earnestly went after the family audience and it just didn't work, but when you actually look at the platform it did a really bad job of appealing to any audience. The same things you said about it not being a good product for core gamers is also true for the mainstream.
 

Griss

Member
Okay, idle question time:

I think we all agree that Sony's gaming division is currently the most successful of the 3, and is clearly in the best position.

With that said, would you rather be in charge of Nintendo or Microsoft's gaming division? Obviously Microsoft is selling more console hardware and has more "mindshare." It also has significantly more sway with third parties.

On the other hand, they're selling less hardware overall than Nintendo is (as they only have the home console product line) and by all accounts are losing considerable money, while Nintendo is at least treading water. For now.

Desperately wanted a shot at this earlier but can't post at work.

I think the choice is massively easy here. It has to be Nintendo.

Microsoft: A gaming business that loses money, and is in direct competition with a company that does almost everything they currently do better than they do it, and are selling far better as a result. You've only just released the Xbox One, so it's going to be a while until you can do a 'generation reset' without upsetting your customers. Your gaming IP isn't very strong, meaning you have to pay a huge amount for exclusives, and the one mega-IP you have (Halo) appears to be on the slide, with a massive PR/quality bungle for its last release. Worse than that, you face an almost ideological opposition from consumers in Japan and mainland Europe, so your rivals have a consistent and inherent advantage with both userbase and devs as a result. It's hard to know exactly what MS could do at this point in time to turn Xbox One around or defeat Playstation. Not only that, but the raison d'etre of Xbox, which was to be the 'all-in-one' box, seems like it's not going to come to fruition and makes me wonder what the larger company's plans will be post-XB1.

Nintendo: The company with the strongest portfolio of IP in the entire gaming industry. This alone wins the battle, but I'll continue. They have the greatest set of development houses in the world, and their software quality is unparalleled. Art, programming, games design, musical talent - they're leaders at it all. Their problems are largely tied to the poorly conceived 3DS and Wii U, which can shortly be replaced with far better ideas at better price points. Not only that, but under my leadership, 3rd party publishing and mobile gaming would at least be possibilities, which if I was market focused would allow me to boost the share price immediately if necessary and buy tons of time. Nintendo's problems are in marketing and customer awareness and reach as much as anything else, problems that can be sorted easily enough compared to the years/decades it takes to build beloved IP or train talented dev houses. Nintendo's possibilities are relatively endless with a different perspective at the top of the chain.
 
Could you translate Streets - Page 5 please :)

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2015/150129.pdf

I would've run it through google translate but I can't even copy it over for some reason >_>

edit: still though, Wii U titles:
Mario Kart 8 (1.03m Japan/3.74m elsewhere, 4.77m total)
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U (640k Japan/2.75m elsewhere, 3.39m total)
Super Mario 3D World (3.79m total)
Nintendo Land (4.44m total)

then 3DS titles in order are:
ORAS
Smash 3DS
....Tomodachi? idk
Mario Kart 7
Pokemon X/Y
NSMB2
???
???
 

Choomp

Banned
It probably didn't take a lot of time or resources but why make it at all if they aren't planning on bringing the series to Wii U in the future?

Hmph... I mean the Plaza was there mainly for New Leaf's functionality, but I mainly agree with you, I think with the success New Leaf had and stuff like the Plaza it would make sense to make a Wii U game.
 

Snakeyes

Member
They need to seriously study what Sony has achieved with the PS4.
There really isn't all that much to study. The PS4 owes most of its success to how badly both of its main competitors messed up. Sega could've come back to launch the Dreamcast 2 with PS4-ish specs and without the Xbox One's DRM policies and would have done about as well as Sony is currently.

You can't design a console based on the assumption that your only competition will be two of the most poorly thought out and marketed platforms in the last 20 years.
 
Uh... isn't it just 5 years of income statement, y/y income, foreign currency sales/exchange rates, million sellers and release schedule?
The only page that really needs running through translate is probably the million sellers as new info?
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Should be the following:

3DS
Pokemon ORAS: 9.35 million
Super Smash: 6.39 million
Tomodachi Life: 3.96 million
Mario Kart 7: 11.42 million
Pokemon XY: 13.70 million
New Super Mario Bros 2: 9.01 million
Animal Crossing: 8.73 million
nope: 1.70 million
 

Roo

Member
So, do they announce anything related to games (new details about announced ones and such) in those meetings?
Can't even remember the last one lol

edit: seems like Hero of Legend already answered that heh
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
April - December 3DS:

Pokemon ORAS: 9.35m
SSB for 3DS: 6.19m
Tomodachi Collection: 2.11m
Mario Kart 7: 1.8m
Pokemon XY: 1.45m
NSMB2: 1.19m
Animal Crossing New Leaf: 1.07m
Kirby Triple Deluxe: 1.07m
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Kirby: Triple Deluxe at 1.70 million is quite good.

SMT X FE is still alive!

oh yissss
 

Eolz

Member
Yep, nothing new in the release schedule.
Some people will be surprised Project Giant Robot and Guard haven't been cancelled, and that SMTxFE is still on its way :p
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Your post implied that the Wii U earnestly went after the family audience and it just didn't work, but when you actually look at the platform it did a really bad job of appealing to any audience. The same things you said about it not being a good product for core gamers is also true for the mainstream.

By saying they went after the family market and it didn't work, I wasn't at all implying that they didn't try to go for other markets, either.
 

Ansatz

Member
There really isn't all that much to study. The PS4 owes most of its success to how badly both of its main competitors messed up. Sega could've come back to launch the Dreamcast 2 with PS4-ish specs and without the Xbox One's DRM policies and would have done about as well as Sony is currently.

You can't design a console based on the assumption that your competition will be two of the most poorly thought out and marketed platforms in the last 20 years.

Yeah Sony didn't do anything other than not fucking it up, it's as if they designed the hardware according to message board concensus. They just had to confirm that a feature all systems had last gen would remain intact and that was a cause for mass hype. It's insane when you think about it.

Also the other reason is the front-loaded nature of software sales is carrying over to hardware. It's a combination of increased awareness through social media and last gen lasting too long.

That said if MS steps up and Nintendo gains relevance through viral marketing, Sony won't be able to maintain their dominance.
 

Shauni

Member
there it is :p

3DS


Wii U

Didn't realize that 3D World had sold that well. I kept hearing about how it was a huge disappointment sales-wise. I'm assuming that number is inflated by bundles and all, but nearly 4 million is a good number, realistically speaking.
 
Dr Kawashima's Devilish Brain Training still on the release list for Europe without a date. I'm really intrigued to know why that game continues to be stuck in limbo...
 
Lmao at this idea that the console market just magically fell into Sony's lap with the PS4.
Just like foolish sheeples buying Destiny, which is obviously a terrible, terrible game with no redeeming qualities.
It's all just hype.
 

Calamari41

41 > 38
There really isn't all that much to study. The PS4 owes most of its success to how badly both of its main competitors messed up. Sega could've come back to launch the Dreamcast 2 with PS4-ish specs and without the Xbox One's DRM policies and would have done about as well as Sony is currently.

You can't design a console based on the assumption that your only competition will be two of the most poorly thought out and marketed platforms in the last 20 years.

I agree, what they didn't do is as important as what they did do. Study it all. It's standard industry analysis, I would hope they're paying attention anyway but it is Nintendo we're talking about.
 
Lmao at this idea that the console market just magically fell into Sony's lap with the PS4.

To be fair, Yoshida has said that they have no idea why it has been this successful. But saying they just didn't screw up diminishes the hard work put into designing the system and reaching out to third parties.
 
To be fair, Yoshida has said that they have no idea why it has been this successful. But saying they just didn't screw up diminishes the hard work put into designing the system and reaching out to third parties.
It diminishes everything that went into marketing (this does not mean advertising) towards creating a successful product.

They may not have expected this degree of resonance, but they did and didn't do a variety of things, choices, trade-offs, towards creating a compelling system for a large and lucrative target market.

The PS4 isn't successful simply because Microsoft and Nintendo screwed up, and the former has done a lot to rectify their situation anyway. It's successful because it's a good product. The Wii U hasn't been successful because it's not a good product.

People on here seem to often have difficulty separating "thing I like or don't like" with good or bad products for the wider market.
 

Griss

Member
It diminishes everything that went into marketing (this does not mean advertising) towards creating a successful product.

They may not have expected this degree of resonance, but they did and didn't do a variety of things, choices, trade-offs, towards creating a compelling system for a large and lucrative target market.

The PS4 isn't successful simply because Microsoft and Nintendo screwed up, and the former has done a lot to rectify their situation anyway. It's successful because it's a good product. The Wii U hasn't been successful because it's not a good product.

People on here seem to often have difficulty separating "thing I like or don't like" with good or bad products for the wider market.

From the very start Sony built the console with an open mind and with the hardcore early adopter gamer in mind, which is why they've had the success they deserve. From bringing Cerny on board to their laser-like focus on games pre-launch to their e3 conferences to their 'This is for the Players' slogan - they guessed what the prevailing mood was and simply nailed it. Even if MS hadn't messed it, Sony was clearly making good decisions, and refusing to acknowledge those decisions is ridiculous.

Of course, I personally think that they've been less successful since launch with their first party lineup, the PS+ and PSN services and lack of desperately needed OS updates for the PS4, but anyone should be able to see why the PS4 burst out of the gates and once you've got that momentum the hard work is pretty much done. Kaz, Yoshida, Cerny and the rest deserve all the credit in the world.
 

Days like these...

Have a Blessed Day
It diminishes everything that went into marketing (this does not mean advertising) towards creating a successful product.

They may not have expected this degree of resonance, but they did and didn't do a variety of things, choices, trade-offs, towards creating a compelling system for a large and lucrative target market.

The PS4 isn't successful simply because Microsoft and Nintendo screwed up, and the former has done a lot to rectify their situation anyway. It's successful because it's a good product. The Wii U hasn't been successful because it's not a good product.

People on here seem to often have difficulty separating "thing I like or don't like" with good or bad products for the wider market.

No one said that the ps 4 is "successful simply" because Microsoft and Nintendo screwed up. Correct me if I'm wrong but i don't think anyone has claimed that is the sole reason for Sony's success.
 
No one said that the ps 4 is "successful simply" because Microsoft and Nintendo screwed up. Correct me if I'm wrong but i don't think anyone has claimed that is the sole reason for Sony's success.
It's on this very page of the thread...
Interesting, operating income is up YOY.

So it's not just the foreign exchange gains, unlike some "experts" have speculated...

I just can't wrap my head around the income taxes from last FY, though...82%...WTF?
Someone's already commented that exchange rate changes are part of the cause for improved gross margin - simplistically put, sales in dollars, weaker yen, more yen. Another major factor is reduced selling and admin costs (reduced advertising spend).
 

Calamari41

41 > 38
No one said that the ps 4 is "successful simply" because Microsoft and Nintendo screwed up. Correct me if I'm wrong but i don't think anyone has claimed that is the sole reason for Sony's success.

There really isn't all that much to study. The PS4 owes most of its success to how badly both of its main competitors messed up. Sega could've come back to launch the Dreamcast 2 with PS4-ish specs and without the Xbox One's DRM policies and would have done about as well as Sony is currently.

You can't design a console based on the assumption that your only competition will be two of the most poorly thought out and marketed platforms in the last 20 years.

That's not to say he's totally wrong. Microsoft and Nintendo screwing up gave Sony a huge boost. How else can you explain a conference hall exploding in applause at the announcement of a $400 price point?
 

kingkaiser

Member
It's on this very page of the thread...Someone's already commented that exchange rate changes are part of the cause for improved gross margin - simplistically put, sales in dollars, weaker yen, more yen.


Exchange rate changes are part of the non-operating income, but it's the operating income which is up YOY.


Another major factor is reduced selling and admin costs (reduced advertising spend).

Yeah, reducing costs is a major part of the operating income growth, but that's what is called to be economical.
 
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