Aquamarine
Member
NOV. 2013 CONSOLES:
360 - 647K
XB1 - 909K
PS3 - 425K
PS4 - 1138K
WII - 83K
WIU - 223K
-
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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
NOV. 2013 CONSOLES:
360 - 647K
XB1 - 909K
PS3 - 425K
PS4 - 1138K
WII - 83K
WIU - 223K
burntchomsky
Member
I just noticed the following page on Amazon--"Most Wished For":
http://www.amazon.com/gp/most-wished-for/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_mw
Fairly interesting, Nintendo is dominating that list. Not sure if you can pull that up for the month of November similar to the Sales page, but I'm wondering if this might indicate that though the amount purchased of Xbone / PS4 games and systems is high due to the sales offered this month, next months NPD may lean a bit more in Nintendo's favor (though I don't see them breaking sales of either Xbone / PS4 any time soon).
http://www.amazon.com/gp/most-wished-for/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_mw
Fairly interesting, Nintendo is dominating that list. Not sure if you can pull that up for the month of November similar to the Sales page, but I'm wondering if this might indicate that though the amount purchased of Xbone / PS4 games and systems is high due to the sales offered this month, next months NPD may lean a bit more in Nintendo's favor (though I don't see them breaking sales of either Xbone / PS4 any time soon).
Unlikely to be definitive, it generally takes Amazon a few days to have an "accurate" tally. I think around Tuesday/ Wednesday we might know the actual rankings for the month.
This being said, dayum, what a climb back for the PS4 compared to the first 2 weeks of November...
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Thank you^^ Hmmmm... I think I will wait for Black Friday PR before making my prediction... I already have an idea for what order they come in, but numbers are leaving me a little stumped...
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Dont forget it was the launch month for PS4 and Xbox One.
freefornow
Member
Is Amazon such a good guide though? I thought Amazon is only responsible for 6% of retail sales (gaming). I thought I read that in one of the NPD threads? where someone was pointing out Gamestops % of retail sales/market share.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Yeah, that is why I am stuck on forming numbers. Traditionally the second holiday is more than the launch, but most machines only sold half or a third the number at launch that PS4 and Xbox1 managed. There really has never been a gen quite like this one...
Final Verdict
Member
Thought it would be interesting to compare Amazon's placement results for some of the closer months to the actual numbers.
I will update this when the final numbers are in for Nov. but these are near final.
March 2014 (Amazon)
#1 PS4
#11 X1 Titanfall Bundle
#76 X1 (Standard)
June 2014 (Amazon)
#8 PS4
#49 X1 (kinectless)
#50 X1 Titanfall Bundle
Nov. 2014 (Amazon)
#2 X1 AC Bundle
#11 PS4 GTA Bundle
#31 PS4
#48 PS4 Destiny Bundle
#79 PS4 LBP bundle
#82 X1 AC + Kinect
#100 X1 Cod Bundle*
*Remember that this only counts orders for this bundle that were placed in November. This bundle was available for preorder since mid August, and so all those preorders count towards Aug.-Oct. months.
-Also worth noting that while the SSO X1 bundle and LBP PS4 bundles are not in the rankings, they both did fairly well, and X1 also had Standard Kinect & Kinectless bundles which are not ranked either.
Have fun guys!
I will update this when the final numbers are in for Nov. but these are near final.
March 2014 (Amazon)
#1 PS4
#11 X1 Titanfall Bundle
#76 X1 (Standard)
June 2014 (Amazon)
#8 PS4
#49 X1 (kinectless)
#50 X1 Titanfall Bundle
Nov. 2014 (Amazon)
#2 X1 AC Bundle
#11 PS4 GTA Bundle
#31 PS4
#48 PS4 Destiny Bundle
#79 PS4 LBP bundle
#82 X1 AC + Kinect
#100 X1 Cod Bundle*
*Remember that this only counts orders for this bundle that were placed in November. This bundle was available for preorder since mid August, and so all those preorders count towards Aug.-Oct. months.
-Also worth noting that while the SSO X1 bundle and LBP PS4 bundles are not in the rankings, they both did fairly well, and X1 also had Standard Kinect & Kinectless bundles which are not ranked either.
Have fun guys!
Thanks for posting that; Shows that Amazon has always been accurate with the rankings -- even during the Titanfall month that surprised many people (including me; which thus made me use Amazon during the months after that for predictions).
It's amazing how the PS4 GTA V bundle outsold the standard SKU in just a day or two.
I think it's also worth noting that the XB1 Unity bundle has been available since the beginning of the month. That gave MS a huge advantage since it was paired with a price cut. MS really might have won the month. There's still 1 day left in November so let's see how things end up then.
Heyo_Rockbreaker
Member
I'm surprised to see such grim predictions for the WiiU. With Nintendo actually advertising the thing and the release of two big games, I figured that predictions would be higher.
michaelius
Banned
[PS4] 850k
[XB1] 800k
[3DS] 450k
[360] 350k
[WIU] 300k
[PS3] 150k
[XB1] 800k
[3DS] 450k
[360] 350k
[WIU] 300k
[PS3] 150k
Duxxy3
Member
Can always edit prediction til the last minute. Nintendo wasn't aggressive with their pricing and interest, outside of the smash community, is not particularly high.
brianmcdoogle
Member
It is going to be close, and that Amazon ranking just proves it. Xbox and PS4 are trading places every other sku, but I still think smart money is on the XB1 by a several thousand.
Aquamarine
Member
Okay...finally finished the November 2014 game release list and sent it to donny2112.
It's massive...the industry really stuffs all their releases in the holiday season.
It's massive...the industry really stuffs all their releases in the holiday season.
DarthWalden
Banned
[360] 230k
[3DS] 550k
[PS3] 130k
[PS4] 1050k
[WIU] 280k
[XB1] 1430k
[3DS] 550k
[PS3] 130k
[PS4] 1050k
[WIU] 280k
[XB1] 1430k
Wii U sales in November 2013 were a little bit above six times what they were in October 2013. Definitely going to get a Holiday shopping season boost but it's not going to compare to the other current gen systems. Bayonetta isn't really popular. Smash is but I don't think it will help to sell a ton of Wii U systems -- many who got Smash already had the system.
theprodigy
Member
average prediction as of this post is 357k, I don't see how this is particularly out of expectations
Final Verdict
Member
~330k should be right as they have been consistently up by about 50% YOY, and last Nov. they sold just ~220k.
I agree, though it is harder to tell this month with sooo many SKUs in the rankings.
Yeah, having all the deals at the beginning of the month has really helped X1 sales. I personally am betting that X1 will win, but am really having a hard time figuring how big/small the gap is. I think stock will play a big role in the numbers.
Also, it is incredibly hard to gauge just how big the overall sales are this year. It is usually rare for a console to break the 1M marker in Nov. early in the console cycle (NPD).
Going back and looking at past NPD's for Nov. the X360 sold around 800k for Nov. 2007, 2008, & 2009.
It wasn't until 2010 that the X360 broke 1M for Nov, and the X360 led US. console sales in November every single year!
So I think that this history shows us that it is likely that X1 will win Nov. (since X360 won every single Nov. NPD), and that it will likely be under 1M.
Of coarse I can't discount the fact that PS4 has been dominating every month this year, I still think it will be close, but I don't think PS4 can pull off an upset here. If they would have put more effort into bundles and deals this holiday, I think it would be different, but then again, I don't think they really care about losing one or two NPDs out of the whole year.
Edit: ^^^^^^ PS4 is the new 360. If XB1 wins it is thanks to the price drop and bundles.
Amazon did have inflated sales of the Destiny bundle versus the Titanfall bundle. Had Amazon's rankings been true it would have sold a lot more in its opening month.
Amazon did have inflated sales of the Destiny bundle versus the Titanfall bundle. Had Amazon's rankings been true it would have sold a lot more in its opening month.
Aquamarine
Member
You're absolutely right. People give Amazon a lot of weight because it's the only major retailer that ranks its monthly sales.
However, there are definitely discrepancies between a smaller, online retailer like Amazon and much larger, big-box retailers like GameStop and Wal-Mart.
Amazon rankings must be taken with a grain of salt.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Maybe Aqua can correct me, but Destiny bundle did outsell Titan Fall bundle at retail. It accounted for over 300K of Sony's 535K that month
El-Pistolero
Member
[XB1] 900K
[PS4] 700K
[WIU] 300K
[3DS] 480K
[360] 175K
[PS3] 100K
[PS4] 700K
[WIU] 300K
[3DS] 480K
[360] 175K
[PS3] 100K
Final Verdict
Member
Agreed.
Only reason i think people cite it so much is because like you said, they are the only retailer that ranks their sales.
Last number I have of TF bundle is 280k so it might be the quithillion time I spoke too soon. I should have written the Destiny bundle down
Edit: Looks like you're right. The difference doesn't seem as big as it did on the rankings though.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Last number I have of TF bundle is 280k so it might be the quithillion time I spoke too soon. I should have written the Destiny bundle down
Edit: Looks like you're right. The difference doesn't seem as big as it did on the rankings though.
That's fine^^ I believe October added an additional 120K for the Destiny bundle if my decoding skills in the NPD thread are to be believed^^
Fox_Mulder
Rockefellers. Skull and Bones. Microsoft. Al Qaeda. A Cabal of Bankers. The melting point of steel. What do these things have in common? Wake up sheeple, the landfill wasn't even REAL!
November NPD: Xbox One revenge
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Didn't know this was up.
[Wii U] 255k
[XBO] 912k
[PS4] 718k
[3DS] 280k
[360] 225k
[PS3] 186k
[PSVita/TV] Deadk
I had completely forgotten about the SO bundle also dropping in the last week of October, and it's with that I'm revising. I kinda feel like an idiot lol, but hey it happens. Part of my XBO guess also includes just giving them a weekly 80k bonus right before BF, which I figure isn't hard for them to do.
My new PS4 is just based on an average from their October #s, so literally just taking the October sales, adding 90% on top, and I guess a 150k boost to be safe. I went back and added 100k to everything else except Wii (just 50k more) and Vita (lol, not even bothering w/ that one).
[Wii U] 255k
[XBO] 912k
[PS4] 718k
[3DS] 280k
[360] 225k
[PS3] 186k
[PSVita/TV] Deadk
I had completely forgotten about the SO bundle also dropping in the last week of October, and it's with that I'm revising. I kinda feel like an idiot lol, but hey it happens. Part of my XBO guess also includes just giving them a weekly 80k bonus right before BF, which I figure isn't hard for them to do.
My new PS4 is just based on an average from their October #s, so literally just taking the October sales, adding 90% on top, and I guess a 150k boost to be safe. I went back and added 100k to everything else except Wii (just 50k more) and Vita (lol, not even bothering w/ that one).
Software-wise yeah they could clean house. But I don't see a single Wii U system or bundle there. If it's like that w/ other store sites, I don't think Wii U will outsell either system in December.
Oh no, I should thank you for correcting me!
The odd thing I remembered from that month was regular PS4 sales were down which I hadn't expected. Not by much (~15%) and it makes sense people brought out to get Destiny opted for the bundle.
It is very interesting how much the bundle sold this month. I would have thought impressions of Destiny had tanked interest, but I guess that's just me in my bubble
I'm curious how much the color had to do with it.
Isn't a tripling of sales in the weeks before BF quite rare? I know that they weren't a tripling of baseline sales, but still.
Definitely. The GTA bundle did well but the AC Unity bundle has been doing well all month (Black Friday included). The sales of the latter for November may be more than the standard PS4 and GTA PS4 combined (though I'm thinking only by a little bit if true).
Outside of that you have the Destiny bundle and the "Family" bundle for PS4; Xbox One has AC Unity with Kinect, Sunset Overdrive, Call Of Duty, and the standard SKU.
Xbox One had more SKUs on top of it having what seems to be the highest selling SKU out of the bunch (AC Unity w/o Kinect). I would say one of the biggest things that makes this month hard is that the Sunset Overdrive bundle (and seemingly) the COD bundle is sold out and we don't know how many were made.
Aquamarine's comprehensive list in the OP.
No. They only count once they reach a consumer's hands. "Productions shipments" are so passé!
No. They only count once they reach a consumer's hands. "Productions shipments" are so passé!
You guys forget that only followed through when Bestbuy and Gamestop showed PS4 on top for a month too. When I'm making predictions on who will be number 1 for the month, I don't only use Amazon. I use all 3 retailers. November will be a tricky month to predict since PS4 is number 1 at Gamestop and was number 1 at Bestbuy until the GTAV bundle got sold out. I think what we are seeing here is that XB1 sold the most at the beginning if the month and now PS4 is selling more.
EDIT-
It's back up actually-
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olstemp...000&browsedCategory=&gf=y&sp=-bestsellingsort skuid&cp=1&nrp=15
The November NPD sales of the Xbox 360 didn't go above one million until the second half of the gen so therefore I'm not expecting it to happen for the PS4 or Xbox One this year.
I would be very happy if I'm wrong though since it would possibly help push current gen only games to come out even earlier.
I know people are using last year's November sales for this current month but next-gen/launch hype played a huge role in those numbers (obviously).
i expect the wii u to continue to grow year over year, especially with the system's best-selling month-one title ever. the 3ds should shrink, but that should be offset by the new pokemon game driving sales that weren't there in october.
i don't see anything in the ps4 that would make its weekly numbers jump too far beyond the 50k-60k a week it had been doing, so i think that means it would have to have an excellent black friday to reach the numbers i'm predicting. xbox one seems to have had less units shipped on black friday, but the deal throughout the month seemed to outpace the ps4 rather solidly. in the end, it's probably not going to be a huge difference, but enough for a lot of really heated debate about sony's complacency and microsoft's profit margins.
i don't see anything in the ps4 that would make its weekly numbers jump too far beyond the 50k-60k a week it had been doing, so i think that means it would have to have an excellent black friday to reach the numbers i'm predicting. xbox one seems to have had less units shipped on black friday, but the deal throughout the month seemed to outpace the ps4 rather solidly. in the end, it's probably not going to be a huge difference, but enough for a lot of really heated debate about sony's complacency and microsoft's profit margins.
This might be a stupid question, but i''m not American so I haven't a clue:
Is Amazon as relevant around Black Friday as it is the rest of the year? I had always imagined BF as being a go to the actual shop kind of thing, and not as much a order it online thing.
Can we look back at Amazon rankings for 2013/2012 and compare those with NPD rankings, or do they not go that far back?
Is Amazon as relevant around Black Friday as it is the rest of the year? I had always imagined BF as being a go to the actual shop kind of thing, and not as much a order it online thing.
Can we look back at Amazon rankings for 2013/2012 and compare those with NPD rankings, or do they not go that far back?
Welfare
Member
That Wii U number has no chance in my opinion.
I remember Gamestop's website showing the Wii U above the Xbox One during a previous month; I remember seeing it but I don't remember how long the system stayed in that position. (I never put much weight into what GameStop's website showed due to that reason alone haha).
Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze doing better than Call of Duty on the 360? Ehhh...
Markitron
Is currently staging a hunger strike outside Gearbox HQ while trying to hate them to death
I think this is highly unlikely.