CosmicQueso
Member
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Seriously, I just can't stress enough just how unlikely year on year growth is for HW this nov/dec.
It's the 4th holiday. If these consoles follow the cyclicality of nearly all other cycles before it, sales will be down for both boxes compared to last year.
Check your expectations. It will be a waste of time for everyone to moan about sales being down when of course they're going to be down. Not because gaming is dead but because of normal market behaviors.
Seriously, I just can't stress enough just how unlikely year on year growth is for HW this nov/dec.
It's the 4th holiday. If these consoles follow the cyclicality of nearly all other cycles before it, sales will be down for both boxes compared to last year.
Check your expectations. It will be a waste of time for everyone to moan about sales being down when of course they're going to be down. Not because gaming is dead but because of normal market behaviors.
Keep in mind of how well the Xbox performed last holiday.while i would agree normally, xbox one was up YoY the last 3 months thanks to the xbox one s.
do you expect that to chnage magically this holiday, while being $50 cheaper compared to 2015?
Sony will probably announce another CoD bundle this December. I think the price this year will help keep things from declining too much. It'll be doom either way, of course, but yeah.It's pretty obvious when last year, Sony released the Battlefront bundles and the Black Ops III bundle last December. This time, it's just the UC4 bundle that has been out since September.
Since you rightfully bring up Battlefront... software in Nov also going to be down. The market this November has nothing to comp to Fallout 4 and Battlefront launching last year. And if COD is also down, we could see a pretty big drop in software.
Not because gaming is dead, but because COD may be down and because EA decided to launch BF1 in Oct instead of in Nov.
But I'll still look forward to 40 pages of people handwringing about how gaming is dying.
great reply, thoYes.
Has Abdiel posted his disaster impressions yet on this Month+Black Friday or does he not do it for this month to rest up?
I believe PS4 will be flat due Pro launch.Seriously, I just can't stress enough just how unlikely year on year growth is for HW this nov/dec.
It's the 4th holiday. If these consoles follow the cyclicality of nearly all other cycles before it, sales will be down for both boxes compared to last year.
Check your expectations. It will be a waste of time for everyone to moan about sales being down when of course they're going to be down. Not because gaming is dead but because of normal market behaviors.
Pokémon will offset Battlefield and Fallout 4.My guess is total software spend will be down at least 15-20% and stupid article after ridiculous post will ensue.
My opinion.great reply, tho
care to elaborate?
becuase i personally see just one possible szenario why xbox one s would be down YoY. less supply
we got several reports about lower and faster moving stock than ps4. mostly anecdotal, but still kinda weird because microsoft tend to (over)stuff the channels in the holiday season and ia get rid of leftover stock in q1 the next year. i just dont know if that observation is demand or supply driven. or a mixture of both.
but here is the reason, why i dont see xbox one being down.
- the product itself is better.
xb1s is more desireable than the original xb. it even has a usp in the uhd blu-ray player
- better bundles compared to last year. bf1 as the biggest multiplat, gears as the biggest exclusive and minecraft as the biggest kids/family game this holiday.
-weaker competiton who could take away some sales. wii u is dead. ps4 has weaker bundles compared to 2015 and the slim is not a better console over xbox one s anymore compared to original xbox one vs original ps4
the ps4 pro on the other hand has a difderent target audience. not really aimed at 4th holiday season shopper.
i also do see this as the third holiday season. the first was launch period
Pokémon sold 3.7m in NA for the first 2 weeks (November NPD)... of course that includes Canada and digital.... but I can see 2.5m NPD.Pokémon has to sell 1.5 copies to make up for every 1 copy of the big games last year in terms of revenues. Fallout 4 and Battlefront sold a metric shit ton of copies last year, so Pokémon does help but can't make up for it. And you're absolutely right on COD.
Only thing that could mix things up is if digital way overperformed when compared to last year with the digital sales during BF weekend. Then it may come out better.
Well it's down in UK after a similar streak of last few months, so it's not without precedent - but granted that was just BF.hanspampel said:care to elaborate?
This is something I'm curious to as well. Maybe the deals on the xbox weren't attractive enough to previous deals and people interested in the product would rather wait out? It's certainly a surprise looking at the uk bf drop from last year. Also during BF consumers would be looking for the best deals so I think the buyers are more swayed by value and price and I remeber people mentioning sony had a bundle that had uc4, ratchet and tlou and was undercutting MS at some retailers so maybe interest just swayed during the period towards ps4.I wonder what caused the X1 momentum to come to a halt like that. It doesn't make sense to me that it did so well building up to the holidays and then dropped during the first part of the holiday period. I don't think blaming it on the PS4's regained momentum is enough either.
Price.I wonder what caused the X1 momentum to come to a halt like that. It doesn't make sense to me that it did so well building up to the holidays and then dropped during the first part of the holiday period. I don't think blaming it on the PS4's regained momentum is enough either.
I wonder what caused the X1 momentum to come to a halt like that. It doesn't make sense to me that it did so well building up to the holidays and then dropped during the first part of the holiday period. I don't think blaming it on the PS4's regained momentum is enough either.
Without pro, core gamers would have bought slim and ps4 sales would continued beating Xbox outside of slim and maybe gears launch. With pro announced core gamers decided to just wait and get the pro. The younger and more casual gamers can't go out and buy the consoles or don't buy day 1. This led to a decrease in sales. Only then during the holidays do younger gamers get the console they want, a ps4 slim.I wonder what caused the X1 momentum to come to a halt like that. It doesn't make sense to me that it did so well building up to the holidays and then dropped during the first part of the holiday period. I don't think blaming it on the PS4's regained momentum is enough either.
Because the hardware difference between them XB1 needs always to be cheaper than PS4 to sell more.
Real shame Aqua can't throw us bones until Jan
xbox one s was the same price or even more expensive if you talk about the 1tb and 2tb model and sold more than ps4 in the last 3 months.
at leat in the us.
in uk ps4 sold more on black friday, but was cheaper. that was the reason for the huge sales gap.
+ the fact ps4 has more and argueably even better bundles in uk
XB1 S was cheaper $250 deals vs $300 in US... the $300 XB1 S had three or more games included.xbox one s was the same price or even more expensive if you talk about the 1tb and 2tb model and sold more than ps4 in the last 3 months.
at leat in the us.
in uk ps4 sold more on black friday, but was cheaper. that was the reason for the huge sales gap.
+ the fact ps4 has more and argueably even better bundles in uk
Seems like Aqua was legally threatened by NPD....don't know what she'll be able to share in the future.
To be fair looks like She is running from them... first chertz and the message on her wall (after that she never back to post there) and now twitter.Seems like Aqua was legally threatened by NPD....don't know what she'll be able to share in the future
no. not the xbox one s. only the old discontinued modelXB1 S was cheaper $250 deals vs $300 in US... the $300 XB1 S had three or more games included.
XB1 S was a hell cheaper the last months... you could get deals for $250 in September and October in US.no. not the xbox one s. only the old discontinued model
and the old discontinued ps4 model was also sold for $279
august 2016 xb1 asp was $330 and ps4 close to $350. xb1 sold 70% more
september 2016 both had ~$300 asp. xb1 sold 17% more
october 2016 xb1 asp was close to $340 and ps4 just above $290. xb1 sold 40% more
the last time xb1 was cheaper and sold worse, was june 2016.
xb1 asp below $300 and ps4 $350.
ps4 sold 10% more
XB1 S was a hell cheaper the last months... you could get deals for $250 in September and October in US.
A lot of deals were posted on GAF.
The discussion about XB1 winning October in prediction thread was due the deals that happened across most retails.
BTW Aqua leaked the avg. price sold each console and XB1 was cheaper in October than PS4.
Microsoft's silence on top of the reports signaling a PS4 overall BF win and how things went in the UK should tell you the whole story.
They haven't won.
Seriously, I just can't stress enough just how unlikely year on year growth is for HW this nov/dec.
It's the 4th holiday. If these consoles follow the cyclicality of nearly all other cycles before it, sales will be down for both boxes compared to last year.
Check your expectations. It will be a waste of time for everyone to moan about sales being down when of course they're going to be down. Not because gaming is dead but because of normal market behaviors.
UK launch was 42k. Nothing to write home about. Also Japan hardware launches are really good for PlayStation so the overall market being weak wouldn't affect Pro much.I just have hard time to see PS4 down yoy with Pro launch. Pro sold 65k units first week in Japan and Japanese home console market is not exactly healthy (and Pro is extra expensive in Japan). Should be at least 400k units for full month in US. With that base PS4 could be 400k units down yoy and still as a whole PS4 family would be flat yoy.
Damn, nothing from Sony and a vague as hell PR from MS.
So what you are saying is that consoles are doomed.Seriously, I just can't stress enough just how unlikely year on year growth is for HW this nov/dec.
It's the 4th holiday. If these consoles follow the cyclicality of nearly all other cycles before it, sales will be down for both boxes compared to last year.
Check your expectations. It will be a waste of time for everyone to moan about sales being down when of course they're going to be down. Not because gaming is dead but because of normal market behaviors.
XB1 S was a hell cheaper the last months... you could get deals for $250 in September and October in US.
A lot of deals were posted on GAF.
The discussion about XB1 winning October in prediction thread was due the deals that happened across most retails.
BTW Aqua leaked the avg. price sold each console and XB1 was cheaper in October than PS4.
Pokémon sold 3.7m in NA for the first 2 weeks (November NPD)... of course that includes Canada and digital.... but I can see 2.5m NPD.
both are likely down YOY, but that's expected. So we'll get info this coming Thursday right?