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NPD January 2013 Sales Results [Up7: Wii U 57K (CNET), Vita ~35K, PS3 201K]

When that happens they'll drop the price. You out of all people should know they need money when and where they can get it...

A price cut would eat into their margins, but introducing a HDD-less SKU would not as they would be removing a large fixed cost in the PS3 BoM. Maybe a 28GB version like Elios mentioned is a better bet than the 12GB one, but I'm quite sure some kind of $199 SKU will be out soon in the US along with a marketing change to emphasise casual games. They will probably bundle games like LBP Karting and some Move stuff to shift PS3 into the budget category so it doesn't compete with PS4 in November, especially if they are advertising it with stuff like "Yoga isn't gaming".
 

Laguna

Banned
Yup,I feel that this gen of handheld will end sooner this time, it wont last as long as PSP/DS gen and next handheld might be closer to ipad/android devices than dedicated gaming handheld.

I think this gen will have a normal 5-6 year lifecycle, at least for 3DS, don´t know what will happen to PSV though.

The last one was from Nov. 2004 to Feb. 2011 so 6 years and 4 months.

This gen started on Feb. 2011 so we are already close to 2 years in. Later this year launches Pokemon which should help the system to remain healthy into the 3rd year. In 2014 I expect a revision which should push again the system at least well into 2015. This would already be at the very least 4+ years and to be honest I don´t see a reason why they should then abruptely end this gen, especially knowing that they´ll be able to offer their systems in a more mass market friendly pricepoint. So a normal 5-6 years lifecycle is a sure bet in my opinion, at least for 3DS.
 

AzaK

Member
I'm just surprised that the "Nintendo core" is so small.

You have to assume that a good chunk of the Nov/Dec sales were holiday gifts. So the "Nintendo core" willing to buy a Nintendo console at launch is something in the 500K range. Tiny compared to what it probably was a decade ago. Nintendo did its level best to corrode its base during the Wii years.
There weren't really any Nintendo core games. NSMB just wasn't compelling enough.
 

noobie

Banned
A price cut would eat into their margins, but introducing a HDD-less SKU would not as they would be removing a large fixed cost in the PS3 BoM. Maybe a 28GB version like Elios mentioned is a better bet than the 12GB one, but I'm quite sure some kind of $199 SKU will be out soon in the US along with a marketing change to emphasise casual games. They will probably bundle games like LBP Karting and some Move stuff to shift PS3 into the budget category so it doesn't compete with PS4 in November, especially if they are advertising it with stuff like "Yoga isn't gaming".

i am sure they will never go for HDD-Less machine. as lot of their earlier game used to have installation.. so they can run into legal troubles.
 
There weren't really any Nintendo core games. NSMB just wasn't compelling enough.

I can vouch for that. I've bought every Nintendo home console within a month of launch, yet I've been holding off on a Wii U for this exact reason. And I realize this is entirely anecdotal, but I know several people that are doing the same thing. Not to say that a few more first-party games will solve all of Wii U's problems, though.
 

Jezbollah

Member
i am sure they will never go for HDD-Less machine. as lot of their earlier game used to have installation.. so they can run into legal troubles.

How about them doing what MS did with the 360S? An onboard memory module with empty hard drive bay to allow expansion if the user wants to add a HDD?
 

ASIS

Member
I can vouch for that. I've bought every Nintendo home console within a month of launch, yet I've been holding off on a Wii U for this exact reason. And I realize this is entirely anecdotal, but I know several people that are doing the same thing. Not to say that a few more first-party games will solve all of Wii U's problems, though.
Although I bought a Wii U. I can also vouch for this. This is the first time where I bought a console with an investment mentality rather than hype. I mean, it's Nintendo's console for the eighth generation of gaming, how could I say no? But if I look the Wii in absolute terms.. The value proposition is pathetic.
 
I don't see the 3DS having a GBA lifecycle because that would put a successor out next spring, but I do see a shorter 4 year lifecycle for the 3DS where Nintendo introduces a "3rd pillar" at E3 of next year. The biggest issue I think with that would be the fact the 3DS is dominating Japan, and for that fact alone I can see Nintendo just accepting mediocre/bad sales in the west and trying to make money in Japan.
 
i am sure they will never go for HDD-Less machine. as lot of their earlier game used to have installation.. so they can run into legal troubles.

As long as there is a hard drive bay and instructions on how to install one it won't matter. Plus they had a 20GB SKU at launch, so low storage hasn't caused a lawsuit.

A potential lawsuit is not a reason for scotching a flash based SKU in the US. It's more to do with production capacity, sales priority and 12GB probably not being enough for the US market. Waiting for a 32GB chip to get cheaper before going into the US makes sense, luckily for Sony, Toshiba are shopping 32GB MLC chips for super cheap right now, something like $9 per chip in with 1k minimum volume because they have some super duper 3D NAND coming 16 and 32GB sizes later this year.
 
The lessons learnt from the PS3 launch will be interesting this time. I still remember all the pre launch hype, how the console would usher in the real next generation of gaming, how it would make the 360 look like a .5 step up in power, visuals, you name it and then the games were shown and that hype was deflated faster than anything I've ever witnessed.

PS4 announcements wouldn't be the same without such things and GAF would be boring.
 
I hope we can eliminate that notion that the 3DS is selling good in the west.

Nintendo answer should start considering that software is not really the problem and that handhelds games needs a price drop...

That's most certainly the problem for me. I flatly refuse to pay $40 for a portable game. I don't care what it is. $35 is a stretch. At $30 I'd probably own twice as many 3DS games.

And if there were a TV solution (ahem Wii U 3DS player), I'd own double that, but that's another topic.

MSRP at $40 has got to be a huge turnoff, especially in the face of that $1 or less mobile market.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
I hope we can eliminate that notion that the 3DS is selling good in the west.

Nintendo answer should start considering that software is not really the problem and that handhelds games needs a price drop...

It was ridiculous to me in the age of the GBA that games were like £30-£35, same as consoles, and then again with DS. When I left the handheld ghetto with the PSP, I imported all my games on the dollar, so I was often paying £15-£20, the sweet spot I found for portable experience. No importing though on the worlds first REGION LOCKED HANDHELD!

I've been more understanding of Vita game prices with cross-platform initiatives and the fact this shit all has full console game production values, but the smartphone app market has permanently changed the landscape on portable gaming and how much people expect to pay. Like right now, Cordy 2 Full Version is £3, with the demo for free. How do I square that against NSMB2 for £30? Alright we got shit touch controls, but if Tactus Technology ever becomes de-facto, the ball-game ends.
 

1-D_FTW

Member
I hope we can eliminate that notion that the 3DS is selling good in the west.

Nintendo answer should start considering that software is not really the problem and that handhelds games needs a price drop...

Unfortunately, I think their answer seems to be that Mario can command a premium and still get away with it. So everything seems to be Mario (or Year of the Luigi... close enough).
 

Celine

Member
Last January the 3DS sold around 250k
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=34999454&postcount=317 made through calculations, and now the 3DS has less than 150k, and yet people are still saying that the 3DS is doing really well. Especially after Nintendo have lowered the expectations for both hardware and software. Handheld gaming is shrinking every single year in the west.
3DS isn't doing really well in US.
I think that some are relieved since it could be way worse.
DS outsold Vita and PSP combined this month...
 

Sandfox

Member
3DS isn't doing really well in US.
I think that some are relieved since it could be way worse.
DS outsold Vita and PSP combined this month...

I still don't get how the Vita somehow killed the PSP while still selling as little units as it does.
 

Hero

Member
I don't see the 3DS having a GBA lifecycle because that would put a successor out next spring, but I do see a shorter 4 year lifecycle for the 3DS where Nintendo introduces a "3rd pillar" at E3 of next year. The biggest issue I think with that would be the fact the 3DS is dominating Japan, and for that fact alone I can see Nintendo just accepting mediocre/bad sales in the west and trying to make money in Japan.

I don't see Nintendo being to launch a third pillar piece of hardware while the Wii U is doing as poorly as it is.

Honestly I think for the 3DS to do better in the west it needs price reductions (129.99 for OG, 149.99 for XL) and more software. Pokemon XY launching in October is a clear signal that they're fast-tracking that for the western world since it's important. If Animal Crossing and Pokemon can't cause it to jump up in sales then it just shows how big the handheld market is these days.
 

Soriku

Junior Member
That's most certainly the problem for me. I flatly refuse to pay $40 for a portable game. I don't care what it is. $35 is a stretch. At $30 I'd probably own twice as many 3DS games.

And if there were a TV solution (ahem Wii U 3DS player), I'd own double that, but that's another topic.

MSRP at $40 has got to be a huge turnoff, especially in the face of that $1 or less mobile market.

There isn't any conceivable way that Nintendo could lower the MSRP for 3DS games to $30 midway through the gen, right?
 

Sandfox

Member
There isn't any conceivable way that Nintendo could lower the MSRP for 3DS games to $30 midway through the gen, right?

I mean, yeah, there's plenty of ways.

But if they did it and third parties didn't? It would be the end of any third party support on the system, full stop.
 

Soriku

Junior Member
There is.

But that'd also lead to less meaty games.

I mean, yeah, there's plenty of ways.

But if they did it and third parties didn't? It would be the end of any third party support on the system, full stop.

In that case I don't know what they should do, except appeal to third parties that they could get more sales with a lower price and still come out ahead. But at the same time, I wouldn't want game budget/quality to take a hit.

This may be something they could only fix next gen...if they feel making a dedicated gaming handheld is still a smart idea. And game costs are sure to increase...

The handheld market may be in for a rough fall outside of Japan in the future. Hopefully AC and Pokemon and such really help the 3DS for now.
 

Celine

Member
I still don't get how the Vita somehow killed the PSP while still selling as little units as it does.
Cause it didn't.
In US PSP was long declining even before Vita.
In japan and Europe PSP is ouselling Vita on behalf of cheapness of both hardware and software.
 
There isn't any conceivable way that Nintendo could lower the MSRP for 3DS games to $30 midway through the gen, right?

That's most certainly the problem for me. I flatly refuse to pay $40 for a portable game. I don't care what it is. $35 is a stretch. At $30 I'd probably own twice as many 3DS games.

And if there were a TV solution (ahem Wii U 3DS player), I'd own double that, but that's another topic.

MSRP at $40 has got to be a huge turnoff, especially in the face of that $1 or less mobile market.

I mean, yeah, there's plenty of ways.

But if they did it and third parties didn't? It would be the end of any third party support on the system, full stop.


At this point something like PS+ would be the best solution, people could get 3DS games for a reasonable reason along good discounts and Nintendo and third parties could still selling their games for that premium price.

Of course the eShop should get much better in terms of content and functionality before that could ever happen. Also this is Nintendo we're talking about....
 

LOCK

Member
This year has been mapped out almost perfectly for 3DS software, so that sales momentum should build right up to the holiday season. So I won't worry too much for the 3DS.

It is clear that slow sales for the system in January are a direct result of a poor holiday sales momentum. February should give us a better indication of where the system is headed
 

TheSeks

Blinded by the luminous glory that is David Bowie's physical manifestation.
My original point was that the DMC brand name is weak regardless of quality. What's the purpose in adding extra crtiera?

I said plenty of resident Evil games have sold less than 2 million throughout the years, you claimed it was BS. I showed you various sources showing those numbers.

Yeah, that's why DMC4 sold more than Donte must Cry, huh?

Fact: Capcom OVER estimated how popular action games are in the world.
Fact: Capcom then tried to reinvent their only action game franchise to "appeal to the west."
Fact: ...That didn't work.
Fact: Capcom THEN revised their over-inflated worth to try to save face.
Fact: ...Gamers still didn't want the game. They wanted DMC5.

Fact: "I didn't ask for this." -Gamers to DINO/Donte.

Fact: This is known.gif with these sales.

No one asked for Donte, they wanted Uncle Dante May Cry 5. The character and systems are more important to people than story, and it readily shows.

Capcom done fucked up by outsourcing their IP's to western studios that couldn't nail what made people want said IP's in the first place. Or they fucked up development by trying to "appeal to the Western world" (see: Bio6). It's readily apparent Capcom doesn't have that ability and should go back to focusing on what they do best: "Japanese"-y games that appeal to niches and sell decently but not at "Call of Duty" numbers they want.

So:

-Make DMC5
-Make Biohazard 6 with Mikami by throwing money at him to do it and retcon Bio5-6.
-Take a hot dump on Ninja Theory and Donte must Cry 2, thereby saving themselves from further disappointment.
-Also take a dump on Lost Planet 3 being out-sourced. That's going to bomb just as hard as Donte did, even moreso since it looks NOTHING like the previous two games for the small and loyal niche that Lost Planet 1-2 had.
-Stop fucking outsourcing and chasing the western dollar, that's clearly not working with the exception of Dead Rising.
 

donny2112

Member
As I understand it, the Fire Emblem thing was at first a legit distribution issue where something major happened in the process and copies didn't go out as scheduled. Then something else happened in manufacturing which is far more their fault.

Did they print enough for what they thought it would sell for a few months, shift to another game, and now they can't quickly shift back to FE:A?

This year has been mapped out almost perfectly for 3DS software, so that sales momentum should build right up to the holiday season.

What would we think the Fall game would be, though? Wouldn't be DQVII or MH4 in the U.S., and don't know of any other big games that would be coming out in Japan that would be available in U.S. later. Pokemon is October, but their big game is always November. Maybe a handheld Zelda LttP 2 or SM3DL 2?
 

AniHawk

Member
I mean, yeah, there's plenty of ways.

But if they did it and third parties didn't? It would be the end of any third party support on the system, full stop.

you know, this was a thing in 2001 with the gba. games were $39.99 back then too, and then the prices fell as carts became cheaper later in the year. with the psp, $29.99 became the standard price for a lot of games (despite starting out at $39.99 or $49.99) and that didn't stop third-parties from releasing games.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Did they print enough for what they thought it would sell for a few months, shift to another game, and now they can't quickly shift back to FE:A?



What would we think the Fall game would be, though? Wouldn't be DQVII or MH4 in the U.S., and don't know of any other big games that would be coming out in Japan that would be available in U.S. later. Pokemon is October, but their big game is always November. Maybe a handheld Zelda LttP 2 or SM3DL 2?

SM3DL2 is impossible: this is 3D Mario's year yes, but for Wii U. Zelda, instead, it's almost a given IMHO: I've always thought this year they'd have released both DK and Zelda. Well, Donkey Kong is actually happening, despite not as I thought. But Zelda should be a brand new main title. And maybe there's another title. Remember: they said they would have released 10 key titles for 3DS this year, before thursday we knew 7 of them, and Mario & Luigi: Dream Team is by far the most obvious guess for the 8th key title.

About third parties, maybe next week's Direct will give us some hint. What if a big Japanese title relevant in the West too is announced next week?
 

Soriku

Junior Member
112k for Ninokuni is more than you could hope for for a JRPG in the US, really.

I wonder what Hino's expectations were when he said a sequel is possible if the game sold well in the West though. Hopefully he sees these sales as encouraging. A sequel on PS4 hardware/graphics would be a sight to behold.
 
In that case I don't know what they should do, except appeal to third parties that they could get more sales with a lower price and still come out ahead. But at the same time, I wouldn't want game budget/quality to take a hit.

This may be something they could only fix next gen...if they feel making a dedicated gaming handheld is still a smart idea. And game costs are sure to increase...

The handheld market may be in for a rough fall outside of Japan in the future. Hopefully AC and Pokemon and such really help the 3DS for now.

Well, Nintendo could also lower licensing and/or cartridge manufacturing costs to make up for the lower margins but I don't know how feasible that is. They absolutely have to be cost-conscious though, there's no way around it.

As for their next round of hardware, if they can't get a healthy handheld market in 2016/17 they might as well completely drop out since I can't see a Nintendo home console after the Wii U. I could talk about a hybrid console but that'd be the third of fourth time in the last two days :p
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
112k for Ninokuni is more than you could hope for for a JRPG in the US, really.

I wonder what Hino's expectations were when he said a sequel is possible if the game sold well in the West though. Hopefully he sees these sales as encouraging. A sequel on PS4 hardware/graphics would be a sight to behold.

To me it seems unlikely that Level 5 is willing to risk funding another major console JRPG on their own given how much their current series are struggling.

However, if Namco sees potential for notable growth, they may (partially) fund a sequel for them.
 
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