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[hanspampel]

Don't forget PUBG on console :s

Certainly possible. I expect Destiny 2 to be the #1 game of Sept and the #5 game of Q4. Call of Duty: WWII should get a double digit % sales increase over IW and keep #1 for Q4, Star Wars Battlefront 2 could be not too far behind at #2, and we still have games like Wildlands, Siege, Overwatch, as well as COD and BF catalog doing nice numbers every month.

this is a very good question
since Microsoft is the publisher of the game on Xbox One and not Bluehole Inc,
would a digital only early access release be tracked???

or only games, that are at least physical AND digital?
or is early access a program preventing it from being counted as a normal release?

Yes.

I'm just not counting on it as there's still no announced release date.

this_is_so_good.jpg
great that the NPD Group is keeping up with the (digital) future of gaming

 

[MatPiscatella]

since Microsoft is the publisher of the game on Xbox One and not Bluehole Inc, would a digital only early access release be tracked???

Yes.

I'm just not counting on it as there's still no announced release date.

Thanks for the video, Mat!

Cheers!

 

[Obliterator]

Certainly possible. I expect Destiny 2 to be the #1 game of Sept and the #5 game of Q4. Call of Duty: WWII should get a double digit % sales increase over IW and keep #1 for Q4, Star Wars Battlefront 2 could be not too far behind at #2, and we still have games like Wildlands, Siege, Overwatch, as well as COD and BF catalog doing nice numbers every month.

Interesting you are that bullish on Battlefront. I'm expecting a similar large drop for BF2 as Destiny 2 has had from the original

 

[vareon]

Thanks for the video, Mat!

 

[Zeouterlimits]

[Up: Video From NPD]

Wow. That must be fairly new.

 

[MrMephistoX]

Surely everyone in North America owns GTA V at this point?

Not the folks buying a PS4 or Xbox for the first time? Would be interested to see the attach rate of GTAV with new console sales.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

It makes me really happy to see BotW chugging along nicely. Makes me hopeful for the longevity of its sales.

It's sales have been incredible. I'm starting to wonder if this will finally be the game to break OoT's lifetime sales. Would love to know what BotW's LTD numbers are.

BotW overtaking OoT's lifetime sales (not including OoT 3D) is all but guaranteed at this point and it's probably going to end up outselling lifetime sales of Twilight Princess as well. I'm fairly certain there's never been a Zelda game with this much staying power in the market and I'm positive there's never been a Zelda that has driven hardware sales to this degree. People are still going to be buying BotW with their new Switch hardware come 2018, alongside Super Mario Odyssey.

 

[Host Samurai]

Good to see Crash in the top and god damn GTAV is a beast. No wonder R* hasn't released any SP DLC.

 

[Nirolak]

Wouldn't that be a big hill to climb when you look at 2015 which also had a Battlefront and probably the best selling COd this gen. Along with halo 5 and siege

We're already tracking ahead of 2015. Only 2013 and 2016 are ahead of 2017 so far, so that helps in that comparison.

 

[black070]

BotW overtaking OoT's lifetime sales (not including OoT 3D) is all but guaranteed at this point and it's probably going to end up outselling lifetime sales of Twilight Princess as well. I'm fairly certain there's never been a Zelda game with this much staying power in the market and I'm positive there's never been a Zelda that has driven hardware sales to this degree. People are still going to be buying BotW with their new Switch hardware come 2018, alongside Super Mario Odyssey.

Yup, not even a fan of Zelda but still picked it up along with my Switch.

 

[ZeoVGM]

Is the video something new? Because that's a really cool idea. It feels like NPD is being more open these days.

 

[ZeoVGM]

Good to see Crash in the top and god damn GTAV is a beast. No wonder R* hasn't released any SP DLC.

I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here:

Crash will be a top 10 game on the NPD in either November or December.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here:

Crash will be a top 10 game on the NPD in either November or December.

If I were Sony, I'd bundle Crash + Horizon with PS4s this holiday.

 

[blakep267]

I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here:

Crash will be a top 10 game on the NPD in either November or December.

Too hard to tell at this point. You have stuff like ultra sun and moon which count as 2 separate games and then who knows if PUBG will be out by that point. Then you have switch games like Mario kart and Zelda which will pop Back up

 

[darkstar0155]

BotW overtaking OoT's lifetime sales (not including OoT 3D) is all but guaranteed at this point and it's probably going to end up outselling lifetime sales of Twilight Princess as well. I'm fairly certain there's never been a Zelda game with this much staying power in the market and I'm positive there's never been a Zelda that has driven hardware sales to this degree. People are still going to be buying BotW with their new Switch hardware come 2018, alongside Super Mario Odyssey.

Agreed, at least in NA I would expect BOTW to maintain a extremely high attach rate well into 2018.

 

[GabeTheGrouch76]

So what's with Sonic Mania again?

digital not counted here?

But I thought it had a physical release on Switch or something

It's a digital exclusive, even with the Collector's Edition. There's no physical release.

Which I still think was a boneheaded move on Sega's part not to do. On top of receiving great reviews (first time in ages for a Sonic game) it's also been charting high in the eShop and PSN, and sold over 100K on Steam in just a few days. It was also said to have outsold Crash in the UK "by a wide margin" in its first week, but because it has no retail release it didn't show up in the charts.

 

[Vyrance]

Great video Mat! Going to be a new monthly thing?

The racing increase for the year is going to be crazy, especially with Gran Turismo hitting later on. A lot of genres seem to be doing very well.

 

[Zalman]

The video is awesome. Great work!

 

[Diprosalic]

If I were Sony, I'd bundle Crash + Horizon with PS4s this holiday.

Why would you give your big sellers away for a discount?

 

[AdanVC]

Zelda has been on the top ten since it launched in march wich is awesome! I dislike congratulating big ass companies that don't give a damn about us but congratulations to Nintendo for such an amazing turnaround from last year.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Why would you give your big sellers away for a discount?

UC4 has been their main bundle since late last year.

Edit - Or to put it another way, why did Nintendo just announce a Mario bundle?

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Why would you give your big sellers away for a discount?

Why did Sony start bundling Uncharted 4 last holiday?

 

[hanspampel]

I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here:

Crash will be a top 10 game on the NPD in either November or December.

no way
way to much competition
and cash is still an exclusive $40 dollar game (probably $20 at Black Friday)


in the recent history no other game than Minecraft has ever achieved that.
November and December top 10 is reserved for the big Holiday games and huge late Summer / early Fall games like Madden, NBA2K, Destiny, GTAV


you can have a look here:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=18

 

[Duderz]

Do we have an LTD thus far for BOTW?

 

[ZugZug123]

Regarding GTA V, is it like a CSGO situation where it keeps selling because some of the installed base keeps getting banned all the time? Game is 3 years old, certainly everyone that wants it bought it, right? Either way, this a phenomenon and good for them.

 

[Leona Lewis]

UC4 has been their main bundle since late last year.

Edit - Or to put it another way, why did Nintendo just announce a Mario bundle?

But the Mario Odyssey bundle is $379.99.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Do we have an LTD thus far for BOTW?

As of June 30th, the Switch version is at 3.92 million units globally. Those are the latest official numbers we have.

Edit - Or to put it another way, why did Nintendo just announce a Mario bundle?

That's not a good comparison. The Super Mario Odyssey bundle isn't sold at a discount. Your first example was more apt. Sony has no problem bundling high profile games during the holiday season for the standard price of the base system (or cheaper).

 

[sixteen-bit]

As I said in the other thread, Injustice 2 showing some nice legs.

And with the PC version recently announce we can only expect the most dominant fighting game of the year to continue its successful showing, right?

 

[DriftingSpirit]

But the Mario Odyssey bundle is $379.99.

That's not a good comparison. The Super Mario Odyssey bundle isn't sold at a discount. Your first example was more apt. Sony has no problem bundling high profile games during the holiday season for the standard price of the base system (or cheaper).

I was more getting at the idea of bundling big sellers in general.

 

[LegendofLex]

I was more getting at the idea of bundling big sellers in general.

UC4 is bundled at no additional cost. That is, when Sony first bundled a game with a PS4, it didn't impact the PS4 SKU price - $399.99. The bundle was a de facto price cut on the cost of a system + game. Now that future, cheaper models have come, they've seen formal price cuts - but we haven't seen a bundle sell for more than a system without a game bundled.

With Switch bundles, the bundles cost more than a system with no bundled game. Nintendo isn't using bundles to create de facto price cuts. You spend the same on a bundle than you would buying the items separately. The only benefit of the bundle is it comes with controller colors that aren't available standalone in all markets.

There's a huge difference between the way PS4 bundles are driving sales and the way Switch bundles are.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

I wonder if Sony will have a first party bundle this holiday or just ride third party ones.

 

[Elandyll]

If I were Sony, I'd bundle Crash + Horizon with PS4s this holiday.

In Europe I'd say it's all but guaranteed, alongside a GTS bundle.

In the US SCEA will probably be conservative as usual and rely on a Battlefront 2 and COD bundle (with the Pro Destiny one), but I could see a $199 Black Friday bundle with Horizon.

 

[Tsosie]

I normally am just a lurker in these threads, but I wanted to say "Thank You" to Mat for the video. It was a great watch during my lunch break. I hope that we see these on a monthly basis.

 

[Jasong7777]

I wonder if Sony will have a first party bundle this holiday or just ride third party ones.

Maybe a GT one. Biggest thing is a healthy price drop for the holidays, eventhrough they will sell well without one. Personally I want a Pro price drop to $349 so I can scoop one.

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

I wonder if Sony will have a first party bundle this holiday or just ride third party ones.

I thought a Gt was already announced or maybe that's just Europe

 

[Guymelef]

I wonder if Sony will have a first party bundle this holiday or just ride third party ones.

In US I expect COD and Battlefront bundles only, then at the end of December a Horizon bundle instead of the Uncharted 4 as default.

Hi everyone, sorry just waking up on the west coast.

I'm around if anyone has any questions.

Also, thanks Guymelef for dropping the link to my first go at a summary video:



I'm trying to make everything a bit easier to digest with some added points of clarification. It's certainly more info than can be included in a tweet or thread, so I hope you dig it. But yeah, it's very much done in corporate-speak. I have a new found respect for everyone who makes videos now, that's for sure!

(And please excuse the error when I called it a 5 week period. DOH!)

You're welcome, thanks for the excellent job.

 

[Nategc20]

Madden on switch would work. Just port the PS3/360 engine. Wtf EA? Huge missed opportunity.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Madden on switch would work. Just port the PS3/360 engine. Wtf EA? Huge missed opportunity.

It's almost certain to happen next year. They were very cautious on Switch initially.

 

[Plinko]

Madden on switch would work. Just port the PS3/360 engine. Wtf EA? Huge missed opportunity.

If FIFA sells this is almost a near certainty, which is why I am begging people to buy FIFA.

 

[FiggyCal]

I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here:

Crash will be a top 10 game on the NPD in either November or December.

Not if the price drops, which it probably will.

 

[Gamer @ Heart]

Madden on switch would work. Just port the PS3/360 engine. Wtf EA? Huge missed opportunity.

Madden sells in NA. FIFA sells worldwide. It was the safer test release.

 

[blakep267]

I wonder if Sony will have a first party bundle this holiday or just ride third party ones.

Well the COD that was announced was limited. So I'd expect Horizon to be the main bundle. 2015 was uncharted collection, 2016 was UC4, so Horizon makes sense for this year. And the BF2 and COD are LE

 

[Portugeezer]

Switch is a beast, GTA is a beast... You know what that means...

Spoiler

they are both beasts

 

[Zeouterlimits]

Video is really good, hope it keeps being done.

 

[jon bones]

If FIFA sells this is almost a near certainty, which is why I am begging people to buy FIFA.

haha same

i need portable full feature Madden 19

 

[Salvadora]

Nintendo not providing digital numbers is disappointing.

I'd imagine it's (considerably) lower than other major publishers, but it would still give us a greater picture of the industry.

 

[The James]

If FIFA sells this is almost a near certainty, which is why I am begging people to buy FIFA.

Arlo just gave some pretty good reasoning for not doing that.

Nintendo not providing digital numbers is disappointing.

I'd imagine it's (considerably) lower than other major publishers, but it would still give us a greater picture of the industry.

Historically that's been true, but I wonder how much it holds up with Switch. I've never been too inclined to buy digital copies of games, but I find the portability of the Switch makes it much more appealing.

 

[Celine]

It'll be categorized in the "Plug N Play" subsegment of Console hardware, just like the NES Classic is.

Speaking of plug & play consoles, can you confirm that NES Classic sold much more than the other plug & play consoles consoles released before it?
It's hard to find data about these plug & play consoles for Sega, Atari, Intellivision, SNK.
The only one I'm aware is that Atari Flashback shipped more than 500K while Atari Flashback 2 shipped almost 1 million units in North America back in 2005.

 

[thestopsign]

I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here:

Crash will be a top 10 game on the NPD in either November or December.

Crash won't be in the Top 20 in November/December. Too many games are coming out that you may not be considering. Assassins Creed, Battlefront, COD, NBA 2K, Madden, Fifa, Mario Odyssey, Wolfenstein, Pokemon, Grand Theft Auto (will be above Crash at least), Gran Turismo, Middle Earth 2, Destiny 2.

That is a hard top crust to break through.

 

[MatPiscatella]

Speaking of plug & play consoles, can you confirm that NES Classic sold much more than the other plug & play consoles consoles released before it?

Confirmed.

Nintendo not providing digital numbers is disappointing.

I'd imagine it's (considerably) lower than other major publishers, but it would still give us a greater picture of the industry.

It is a bummer. Hopefully someday!

Video is really good, hope it keeps being done.

Wow thanks! This is the plan. I've been quite surprised by how many views it's gotten and the positive feedback. Thanks everyone for checking it out. I definitely want to improve both the content and pace of it, and I'm even thinking of moving to a live stream with perhaps some Q&A at the end of the presentation bit?

Anyways, yeah thanks again!