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Official January NPD Prediction Thread - closes Friday Feb 8

I

Ike

PissBOX, PeeS2, or Toiletcube
[360] 300k
[NDS] 500k
[PS2] 180 k
[PS3] 150 k
[PSP] 320 k
[WII] 400k
 
J

jarrod

Banned
[360] 250k
[NDS] 500k
[PS2] 200k
[PS3] 175k
[PSP] 225k
[WII] 350k

Burnout 360 ~120k
Burnout PS3 ~40k

Advance Wars ~60k
Mario & Sonic ~100k

Sonic Riders Wii ~60k
Sonic Riders PS2 ~30k

NMH ~25k
 
D

donny2112

Member
One day, we'll be able to have prediction threads where we try to predict based on demand instead of guessing at shipment quantities. One day ...

[NDS] 250K
[WII] 180K
[360] 155K
[PS3] 125K
[PS2] 170K
[PSP] 200K
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
donny2112 said:
One day, we'll be able to have prediction threads where we try to predict based on demand instead of guessing at shipment quantities. One day ...
Click to expand...


but it is not this day

aragorn.jpg
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
[360] 120k
[PS3] 110k
[PS2] 130k
[Wii] 310k
[NDS] 290k
[PSP] 130k

Kind of random projections, but not much going on this month.
 
B

botticus

Member
Let's see if I can get the ordinal ranking of the Playstation family right at least.

[PS2] 222k
[PSP] 221k
[PS3] 220k
[360] 260k
[WII] 300k
[NDS] 325k
 
B

Brakara

Member
[360] 180K
[NDS] 350K
[PS2] 180K
[PS3] 200K
[PSP] 220K
[WII] 320K

Edit: adjusted 360 and Wii down by 60k each (expect shortages).
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
i'm going to go ahead and take the contrarian view that shortages won't be much of an impact at all. call it the "yet somehow wii managed to dominate 2007 anyway" theory.

[nds] 350k
[wii] 400k
[psp] 225k
[360] 220k
[ps2] 205k
[ps3] 152k
 
T

Thunder Monkey

Banned
Odysseus said:
i'm going to go ahead and take the contrarian view that shortages won't be much of an impact at all. call it the "yet somehow wii managed to dominate 2007 anyway" theory.

[nds] 450k
[wii] 400k
[psp] 225k
[360] 220k
[ps2] 205k
[ps3] 152k
Click to expand...
The stance I'm taking truthfully.

The lowest I can see them going for the month is 300,000 and that's if they just completely and utterly fucked up their shipments this month.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Odysseus said:
i'm going to go ahead and take the contrarian view that shortages won't be much of an impact at all.
Click to expand...

Shortages hit the DS last January, and it was < 240K. That was the only month it was less than 380K all year, and that was a five-week month. Shortages don't mean "no sales," but there haven't been much in the way of reported shipments, either. For this month for the 360, NDS, and Wii (again), I think we're more in the way of predicting shipments than sales from available stock. I think I'm too pessimistic in my own predictions, but I'll let it sit for a day or so to see if I want to change it.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
donny2112 said:
Shortages hit the DS last January, and it was < 240K. That was the only month it was less than 380K all year, and that was a five-week month. Shortages don't mean "no sales," but there haven't been much in the way of reported shipments, either. For this month for the 360, NDS, and Wii (again), I think we're more in the way of predicting shipments than sales from available stock. I think I'm too pessimistic in my own predictions, but I'll let it sit for a day or so to see if I want to change it.
Click to expand...

the systems could very well sell nothing at all. who the frap knows.

but all i know is i've never seen a wii on a shelf ever. and yet somehow it still dominated 2007. so much for predicting just because of not seeing product on shelves.

january is just a wild guess, a throwaway.
 
A

apujanata

Member
[NDS] 390k
[WII] 340k
[360] 220k
[PSP] 210k
[PS2] 200k
[PS3] 190k

I hope I didn't do too bad this month. This month is even harder than Dec 07.
 
B

Belgorim

Member
Obviously the hardest month of them all. Lets just hope for the best :)

[360] 200k
[NDS] 350k
[PS2] 190k
[PS3] 180k
[PSP] 210k
[WII] 300k

yeah, I put them all kinda close, so its a crapshoot.
 
D

djtiesto

is beloved, despite what anyone might say
[360] 250,000
[NDS] 400,000
[PS2] 150,000
[PS3] 180,000
[PSP] 270,000
[WII] 425,000
 
A

Anerythristic

Member
[360] 140K
[NDS] 285K
[PS2] 140K
[PS3] 180K
[PSP] 160K
[WII] 170K

No Wiis and 360 very, very difficult to find. PS3 pulls one out to begin 2008.
 
T

theguy

Member
Wait a second. Aren't these predictions based on sell through and NOT shipping? NPD's numbers reflect actual retail and e-tailer sales, not shipping. Are we supposed to predict based on shipping or sales?
 
P

Psychotext

Member
theguy said:
Wait a second. Aren't these predictions based on sell through and NOT shipping? NPD's numbers reflect actual retail and e-tailer sales, not shipping. Are we supposed to predict based on shipping or sales?
Click to expand...
Sales at retail.
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
jarrod said:
[360] 250k
[NDS] 500k
[PS2] 200k
[PS3] 175k
[PSP] 225k
[WII] 350k

Burnout 360 ~120k
Burnout PS3 ~40k

Advance Wars ~60k
Mario & Sonic ~100k

Sonic Riders Wii ~60k
Sonic Riders PS2 ~30k

NMH ~25k
Click to expand...

I really, really hope you are wrong on the Burnout numbers. I'm thinking more like 250k 360 and 150k PS3.
 
B

botticus

Member
theguy said:
Wait a second. Aren't these predictions based on sell through and NOT shipping? NPD's numbers reflect actual retail and e-tailer sales, not shipping. Are we supposed to predict based on shipping or sales?
Click to expand...
The comments about shipments are related to the fact that practically everything is supply constrained in some way, so we're more trying to estimate how many have been shipped (and sold, since they're hard to find), rather than what we think demand is looking like.
 
D

donny2112

Member
theguy said:
Are we supposed to predict based on shipping or sales?
Click to expand...

What botticus said. Yes, we're predicting what the NPD sales will show, but with the DS, Wii, and 360 Premium all being in very short/non-existent supply, it's more like we're predicting how many of those consoles actually made it to store shelves.
 
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