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Official January NPD Prediction Thread - closes Friday Feb 8

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squatingyeti

non-sanctioned troll
If the 360 still manages to outsell the PS3 despite the colossal fuckup in having any brains to actually ship consoles, I think that will be a sign of the year to come.
 
R

RevoDS

Junior Member
Hmm, another wildcard month :X

[NDS]405,000
[WII]325,000
[PSP]230,000
[PS2]190,000
[360]160,000
[PS3]140,000
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
squatingyeti said:
If the 360 still manages to outsell the PS3 despite the colossal fuckup in having any brains to actually ship consoles, I think that will be a sign of the year to come.
Click to expand...

I believe this to be true as well.
 
D

donny2112

Member
The software thread is up. Here are the games to predict for in that thread.

[360 Burnout Paradise]
[360 Call of Duty 4]
[360 Kingdom Under Fire: CoD]
[360 Rock Band]
[NDS Advance Wars: DoR]
[PS3 Burnout Paradise]
[PS3 Uncharted]
[WII Guitar Hero III]
[WII No More Heroes]
[WII Super Mario Galaxy]
Click to expand...
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
Supply will be an issue....

[WII] 515,000
[360] 322,000
[NDS] 255,000
[PS3] 250,000
[PS2] 245,000
[PSP] 238,000

I used three formulas and averaged them to get these amounts. PS3 seems wrong though, even after adjustment. Oh well.

My brief scan of the thread also shows me as the highest prediction for Wii. Hope my wager pays off. I want back into the GAF aggregate.
 
S

scottnak

Member
[360] 230,300
[NDS] 440,400
[PS2] 170,700
[PS3] 166,600
[PSP] 245,500
[WII] 404,400

Maybe on the high end. WHo knows. It's my first time playing.
 
kbear

kbear

Member
There's a lot of low predictions being posted, across the board < 200k. Isn't January a monster month? It's right after Christmas, people have a lot money to spend, etc. What was it like last year?
 
J

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
I want to kick off the discussion part of this thread a little early because I'll be out of town through the middle of next week.


I expect sales between the 360 and PS3 to be close. I've been witnessing a substantial increase in PS3 sales this last month... probably 2-2.5 times that of October. However, I'm also expecting the NPD thread to be filled with people blaming the outcome on shortages (which may be true), but had PS3 sales not improved it still would not have been close.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
JJConrad said:
I want to kick off the discussion part of this thread a little early because I'll be out of town through the middle of next week.


I expect sales between the 360 and PS3 to be close. I've been witnessing a substantial increase in PS3 sales this last month... probably 2-2.5 times that of October. However, I'm also expecting the NPD thread to be filled with people blaming the outcome on shortages (which may be true), but had PS3 sales not improved it still would not have been close.
Click to expand...
I'm going to be looking at weekly sales rates compared to the past year, especially last January. While the 360 has been up YoY since August, I think it will be down because of the shortages. The PS3 will obviously be higher. Either way, because of the shortage situation I think February will be more indicitive of the rest of the year, with respect to their relative performance.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
[360] 190k
[NDS] 475k
[PS2] 210k
[PS3] 175k
[PSP] 200k
[WII] 450k
 
J

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
GhaleonEB said:
I'm going to be looking at weekly sales rates compared to the past year, especially last January. While the 360 has been up YoY since August, I think it will be down because of the shortages. The PS3 will obviously be higher. Either way, because of the shortage situation I think February will be more indicitive of the rest of the year, with respect to their relative performance.
Click to expand...
I don't think shortages are going to play as big of a role into the month's outcome as people will give it credit for.

The Wii doesn't count. It's been supplied constrained for over a year and will continue to be for a while. My predictions is mostly based on the gap created between rushing supply out for Christmas and then returning it normal, slower method afterward.

With the DS, we would get a large shipment, sell it in a few days and get other large shipment the next week. The biggest shortage seems to have been caused by phasing out the Crimson/Black model and bringing in the Cobalt/Black one.

With the 360, we'd get about 4 in at a time and they'd sell out before our next shipments ... but it would a take a 3 or 4 days. And if we were out, the next store over had them. Its been more of a lack of surplus than actual shortages. It's nothing like the shortages with Wii or DS.
 
C

CrisKre

Member
I think there is no chance nintendo put out 400k wiis.

[360] 210k
[NDS] 395k
[PS2] 150k
[PS3] 180k
[PSP] 200k
[WII] 305k
 
S

Servbot #42

Unconfirmed Member
[360] 250000
[NDS] 420000
[PS2] 170000
[PS3] 210000
[PSP] 360000
[WII] 350000

i am not very good at predicting but ill guess ill give it another try :lol .
 
D

DayShallCome

Member
[NDS] 380,000
[WII] 340,000
[360] 240,000
[PSP] 220,000
[PS2] 212,000
[PS3] 192,000

Tough month to predict... I'm not sure how shortages are going to play out.
 
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