-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Pachter predicts the death of the console
- Thread starter speculawyer
- Start date
Chezzymann
Member
Is it a coincidence that the console market seems to be dramatically retracting this gen and mobile is dramatically expanding, or is it just the Wii/DS market moving to mobile games and forgetting Wii U/3DS? I think the latter has a lot to do with it, but the former can't be ignored. PS4/Xbox One are probably not going to sell 160 million consoles combined like they did last gen, due to the xbox one not having all-that-amazing sales so far. Even with the record setting PS4 numbers last holiday.
Explain.
In general I think Pachter is often correct but underestimates how long it will take to get there. Maybe, as others have said, it's because he doesn't have a good understanding of what is technologically feasible.
Consoles probably will fade in importance, phones are the way most people play games. But I agree, what he's talking about is more like 10 years out or more.
Graphics Horse
Member
I think I'm getting deja vu
Barack Lesnar
Banned
I think we'll get one more traditional gen after this one and then that'll be it. We'll get chips inside TVs that let you play games, or our phones will be powerful enough to tether to your TV and play, or Onlive/Gaikai type streaming will take off. One of those three but I think we still have about 10 more years of consoles.
There will have to be some new revolutionary tech for our phones to be powerful enough to replace them. Graphite? Nanotech? I dunno.
There will have to be some new revolutionary tech for our phones to be powerful enough to replace them. Graphite? Nanotech? I dunno.
Visualante2
Member
Here is the link to the story OP is quoting http://venturebeat.com/2014/09/15/michael-pachter-microsoft-is-preparing-for-life-after-the-xbox/
I don't think the article conveys any of the reasons Pachter is giving for his assertion. But maybe he doesn't have any...
I don't think the article conveys any of the reasons Pachter is giving for his assertion. But maybe he doesn't have any...
GreatestHits
Member
The problem is, when they are finally phones, they will have a Sony logo on them. Baha. Microsoft will be pushing the phone Kinect
rokkerkory
Member
Dedicated h/w will not exist? lol
it will exist but it'll transform so that we can stream games
it will exist but it'll transform so that we can stream games
Hahaha.
speculawyer
Member
He doesn't know.
He's not a dumb guy and he does often say very interesting things. But he's got to learn his limitations and not make proclamations about technology he doesn't understand very well.
Zombie James
Banned
I'm no expert on this stuff, but it doesn't seem like it. Charts?
Chezzymann
Member
Well, I think what he's getting at is that there's only one console that has healthy sales right now. 3DS used to but its not doing anywhere near as much as it was in 2012 and when you compare it to PSP and DS its really behind.
Yeah, he said in two more generations and I'm pretty sure he meant phone generations. That's crazy talk.
The concept of games being processed locally is slowly dying. As Sony and Microsoft gradually improve their back end infrastructure, streaming and real time cloud gaming will only become more prominent. You'll be able to play a game anywhere, irrespective of your device.
In 8 years, "Xbox" and "Playstation" won't be viewed as hardware platforms, but as entertainment services.
In 8 years, "Xbox" and "Playstation" won't be viewed as hardware platforms, but as entertainment services.
Um, I actually think he has a valid point. put aside your knee-jerk typical gamer "THEYZ TAKIN' MUH GAEMZ!" attitude and see that, starting with the iPhone 5, we are now seeing graphics on-par with consoles and think about this scenario, since he brought up Chromecast(which plugs directly into your TV): A micro-HDMI to HDMI cord that goes from your phone(or similar iOs/Android device)to your TV and that's how you get all the ridiculously good-looking graphics on a big screen. Couple that with a Bluetooth/WiFi gamepad and I can legitimately see consoles no longer being "necessary."
Now, I get that scares you, but if you think about it, it's a bright future.
Oh, and don't forget Oculus..
He's not entirely wrong. The home console market is sharply contracting, and when we're at a point where AAA games must sell millions upon millions to make a profit all the while development costs are spiraling out of control, clearly this business model is not sustainable.
Also, this.
Also, this.
Agreed. I don't know about his reasoning, but I think you have to be willfully ignorant to look at the available evidence and claim that the console market is fundamentally healthy.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
SeventhSon
Member
Stormhammer
Member
He tells us consoles are dying while telling us there's an exciting Xbox One bundle we need to purchase this holiday. lol
It'll always be said when there's a new console launch.
AaronWatermelon
Member
I'll go wherever the wind takes me, so long as there's some great games to play.
SwiftDeath
Member
lol ah Pachter, you'll be right eventually at the very least
CrunchyFrog
Member
Why am I chuckling like a mad man at work
Haha was looking for a link. Knew he had said it before.
Seriously. Hasn't he said this exact thing before?
Oh wait, there it is. You found it already... Silly me. ><;
sometimes i game
Member
We roll our eyes at this on this forum, but the more casual hardcore gamer in me says yes I would love to stream Assassin's Creed 12 to my TV from a stick or my phone instead of buying another console. There are positives, not just negatives.
Yes, because this at least being a big option is inevitable. Everything from PlayStation Now, Vita TV, The Sony Z3 with Remote Play, EA's Access Pass and more point to it.
Damn, seems like Sony will do it first. They inch closer to it with everything they do.
Yes, because this at least being a big option is inevitable. Everything from PlayStation Now, Vita TV, The Sony Z3 with Remote Play, EA's Access Pass and more point to it.
Damn, seems like Sony will do it first. They inch closer to it with everything they do.
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
speculawyer
Member
What do you think will replace them? I certainly could see things changing . . . but you are not going to be playing TV-displayed CoD on your Chromecast dongle or cellphone.
Cloud-gaming? I dont' see it. OnLive bombed. It works but the quality takes a hit in both visual aspects, sound, and lag. And I don't see the internet improving enough to fix that except for people that get fiber. And if we go to 4K, streaming will just fail again.
Instead of console, the CPU & GPU could move elsewhere . . . in your TV, in your cable box, using a PC instead, etc. But I wouldn't call that the death of the console . . . just it moving.
^ This.
AHA-Lambda
Member
Jesus Christ, I thought people had stopped this shit now that both consoles have come out of the gate kicking ass, and that games like Destiny and Watch Dogs (despite being crap) are selling gangbusters?
Alcoholikaust
Member
God, i wasn't aware of that...
With enough love and care, consoles can last a long time. I still have a working Atari Super Pong unit that works with out any problems. Maybe this Patch Adams guy has an original XBox with faulty capacitors.
*Reads article*
Yeah, no. They are sticking around. Maybe not in their current form as we know it, but as long as there are (loosely) dedicated devices for hobbies, dedicated hobbyists and casual consumers will pick them up.
*Reads article*
Yeah, no. They are sticking around. Maybe not in their current form as we know it, but as long as there are (loosely) dedicated devices for hobbies, dedicated hobbyists and casual consumers will pick them up.
SenjutsuSage
Banned
Consoles confirmed to stand the test of time.
Corronchilejano
Member
I'd just like to charge my phone twice a week instead of every day.