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Pachter: Wii U will sell out for months (through April 2013)

I think Nintendo held off on Pach's Wii HD advice 3 years ago cause it would of been a bizarro NES and killed the industry by being too successful.
 

Smellycat

Member
He also believes that Activision’s support of the Wii U with a lot of casual titles (sans Black Ops 2), signals that “they think the Wii U market is casual”.

He actually gets paid to make these bold predictions?
 

forrest

formerly nacire
I actually like Pachter well enough, but it wasn't long ago that he was saying Nintendo missed their window for the WiiHD.
 
Michael had some more predictions on Twitter today. This my favorite:
On Wii U success/failure: I think that it will sell 50% as well as Wii, but will start as well because of fan base and supply constraints
Lack of supply will lead to record-breaking launch sales (going by that 7-million-through-March thing), which will then fall away completely.
0QKRL.png


There was also
I think Wii was 50% casual, 50% core; 360 was 85/15; PS3 65/35. Casual alternatives (tablets, phones, social) hurt Nintendo more than others

Flip those percentages for 360 and PS3, should have been 15/85 and 35/65. Sorry for the excess tweetage . . .
So playing out the theoretical, what if his percentages were accurate and the extreme case happened of losing all the casuals to Zynga and Gameloft? So Wii U does 50% as well as Wii, Durango 85% as well as X360, and PS4 65% as well as PS3? Assuming they'd launch a year after Wii U, through the end of 2017 things would go something like
2013-11-11

A division not unlike this generation, really, except everyone smaller and Nintendo would need the headstart to achieve it rather than earning it with monster sales the first few years.
 
Michael had some more predictions on Twitter today. This my favorite:

Lack of supply will lead to record-breaking launch sales (going by that 7-million-through-March thing), which will then fall away completely.
0QKRL.png


There was also

So playing out the theoretical, what if his percentages were accurate and the extreme case happened of losing all the casuals to Zynga and Gameloft? So Wii U does 50% as well as Wii, Durango 85% as well as X360, and PS4 65% as well as PS3? Assuming they'd launch a year after Wii U, through the end of 2017 things would go something like
2013-11-11

A division not unlike this generation, really, except everyone smaller and Nintendo would need the headstart to achieve it rather than earning it with monster sales the first few years.
yep

 

donny2112

Member
So playing out the theoretical, what if his percentages were accurate and the extreme case happened of losing all the casuals to Zynga and Gameloft? So Wii U does 50% as well as Wii, Durango 85% as well as X360, and PS4 65% as well as PS3? Assuming they'd launch a year after Wii U, through the end of 2017 things would go something like
2013-11-11

A division not unlike this generation, really, except everyone smaller and Nintendo would need the headstart to achieve it rather than earning it with monster sales the first few years.

People continually underappreciate what Wii did with surpassing 360 in < 1 year and almost being > PS360 in the U.S. at one time all while launching a year later than 360. The year headstart they're getting, even with substantial declines from last generation, is just huge.
 
I think they will sell out in Japan for a while through the holidays. I don't see interest remaining extremely high unless Nintendo has something up their sleeves around February we don't know about. That doesn't mean it won't sell well just not sell out levels
 

roddur

Member
like a lot others said, i'm really sad that wii u is going fail, fail hard. i'm not even joking.

he was right about nintendo everytime.
 

spwolf

Member
People continually underappreciate what Wii did with surpassing 360 in < 1 year and almost being > PS360 in the U.S. at one time all while launching a year later than 360. The year headstart they're getting, even with substantial declines from last generation, is just huge.

so what exactly did Wii do for Nintendo?

Anyway, he is trolling Wii U since selling only 1m/month would be pretty damn bad for Nintendo.
 
Well, maybe he'll be wrong in the sense that Nintendo will produce more than a milliion consoles per month and won't get into supply problems.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
That might be the worst thing I've ever read.

Can he rate the respective CEO's in terms of DBZ power levels next?

I'd love to see his source on this, because it sure isn't tie-ratio.
 

BibiMaghoo

Member
This fucking guy.

Reads Neogaf - threads of Wiiu selling out.
Makes a prediction - Wiiu will sell out.
Gets paid - by someone presumably.

I would love his job :(
 
I think they will sell out in Japan for a while through the holidays. I don't see interest remaining extremely high unless Nintendo has something up their sleeves around February we don't know about. That doesn't mean it won't sell well just not sell out levels

True, true. Mario, Monster Hunter & Dragon Quest in the first few months are cool, but that's not really what Japan goes for.
 

isny

napkin dispenser
So this will be cheap as heck to buy used in the Spring after all kiddies get it for Christmas and then never use it again? Thanks Pach!
 

isny

napkin dispenser
Anyone else go from being hugely skeptical after E3 to being completely sold? Pretty much what happened to me.

Not me. What killer IP's does it have at launch besides a Mario game? What games do we even have to look forward to that were announced besides Pikmin?

Zelda, Smash Brothers, Metroid? Nope? All will probably end up on the 3DS before the WiiU. The 3DS really has a much more solid line up of games for the next year compared to the nothingness that is the WiiU.
 
Not me. What killer IP's does it have at launch besides a Mario game? What games do we even have to look forward to that were announced besides Pikmin?

Zelda, Smash Brothers, Metroid? Nope? All will probably end up on the 3DS before the WiiU. The 3DS really has a much more solid line up of games for the next year compared to the nothingness that is the WiiU.

The only thing Nintendo has for the 3DS next year is Luigi's Mansion 2 and Fire Emblem (in the US).
 
Anyone else go from being hugely skeptical after E3 to being completely sold? Pretty much what happened to me.

The only things that I've seen that interests me is NSMBU, Bayonetta 2 (no release date), Wonderful 101. Only NSMBU launches with the system. And is Rayman Legends confirmed exclusive? I still want to know the specs on the thing as well as the online aspect.
 

Meelow

Banned
Not me. What killer IP's does it have at launch besides a Mario game? What games do we even have to look forward to that were announced besides Pikmin?

Zelda, Smash Brothers, Metroid? Nope? All will probably end up on the 3DS before the WiiU. The 3DS really has a much more solid line up of games for the next year compared to the nothingness that is the WiiU.

Just think, what other consoles had this amount of games at launch/launch window?, not much.

And we don't know fully 2013 games yet, just because they aren't announced doesn't mean it's there :).
 

ironcreed

Banned
Not me. What killer IP's does it have at launch besides a Mario game? What games do we even have to look forward to that were announced besides Pikmin?

Zelda, Smash Brothers, Metroid? Nope? All will probably end up on the 3DS before the WiiU. The 3DS really has a much more solid line up of games for the next year compared to the nothingness that is the WiiU.

I guess it just depends on what you want. As for myself? I am looking forward to Zombie U, Bayonetta 2 and Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate. Beyond that, the controller has really grown on me with it's hybrid classic controller/tablet design and I am excited to have a new way to play with my games that will feel like an actual next step without doing away with the comfort and familiarity. A hell of a lot more appealing than the Wiimote because I can still play with it like a regular controller, yet it has added features.
 
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