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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
AntraxSuicide said:
You should talk to more Southern people of color. Sanders absolutely could've done better here because Clinton was vulnerable as hell on some of that stuff.

But I'd rather avoid it. Clinton was a bad choice as a prior loser and Sanders is too, in addition to his age. Dems win when they run people with very short records who can still project competence.
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Telling you guys, Klobuchar is a dark horse for 2020. Her entire record is that everyone likes her and likes working with her. She's the most productive Senator in the country and is sufficiently mainstream liberal on just about every issue. Unlike Clinton however she's spent her career being pretty anonymous to the national public.

Here's a special election to look out for: Georgia Republican State Senator Hunter Hill is resigning his seat to focus on a run for governor, setting up a special election in a district that went from 53-46 Romney to 56-40 Clinton. Hill only won reelection last year 52-48.
 
G

GoldenEye 007

Member
Blader said:
Why would that matter at all? Bernie is probably electable than Warren.



If Joaquin Castro would pass on running for governor because he's seriously concerned about it impacting his nobody brother's presidential ambitions, then he's clearly too stupid for me to get behind as a candidate for anything. Talk about entitlement.
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Didn't he also step aside in the senate race? Ceding to Beto O'Rourke?
 
V

Vimes

Member
dramatis said:
NK launched a missile over Japan yesterday, Trump is visiting Texas today while a hurricane is still hovering over the state, and for some reason we are talking about 2016 and 2020 again.
Click to expand...

Every time I take a break for a few days I come back to three pages of this shit.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Telling you guys, Klobuchar is a dark horse for 2020. Her entire record is that everyone likes her and likes working with her. She's the most productive Senator in the country and is sufficiently mainstream liberal on just about every issue.

Here's a special election to look out for: Georgia Republican State Senator Hunter Hill is resigning his seat to focus on a run for governor, setting up a special election in a district that went from 53-46 Romney to 56-40 Clinton. Hill only won reelection last year 52-48.
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Agree with this. If Franken or Bernie don't run (or if Harris/Gillibrand impress me) I'll probably vote her. I really like her rn
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Pence's favorables are pretty mediocre. He's basically even. That looks good next to Trump, Clinton, Pelosi, Ryan, McConnell, and Schumer, but that says more about them (or in some cases the positions they hold) than it really does about Pence.
 
J

jelly

Member
When he pardons Trump though, that will knock him down and he is basically trying to blend in with the curtains at this time and hopes nobody notices.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
I think if we acknowledge that favorables matter, then his should be cause for concern because they are high
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Favorables will change drastically if Trump resigns, or worse, is actually convicted of something.

It's not like Pence's favorability is set in stone.

Pence hasn't done anything. This is basically the approval rating of vanilla pudding.
 
K

Kid Kamikaze10

Member
Re: Black voters and Sanders.

1) People knew that if Sanders could beat Clinton, it would be through black voters. That urgency never came through in their campaign.

Because Jeff Weaver sucks. That is more on him.

2) In my experience and annecdotes, a lot or BLM, Campaign Zero, and others have talked to Bernie about their concerns, and have found his responses lacking. Same with Clinton, but it was more disappointing to see that Bernie wasn't much better

But he is not gonna make the pushes he wants without black people. Driven black people, in his team. Beyond the Nina's. I'm talking black folk that know their communities and speak politics.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
I also think Mike Pence's strength in 2020 is underrated as well. His favorables are really high and I think that Trump has lowered standards so much that should Pence become President at any point everything he says and does will look so amazing and Presidential by comparison

Our media is so desperate to write "he became president today" about Trump any chance they get. Imagine what they'll do with president Pence who I'm sure can manage to give a speech without descending into madness
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As an aside, if Trump gets impeached, someone will write a cheeky "Mike Pence Became the President Today" headline. For sure.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Guess whose approval rating this was, right around this point in his term?

63% approval, 21% disapproval

Dick Cheney, April 2001, Gallup

He's going to be a serious threat in
2008
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Favorables will change drastically if Trump resigns, or worse, is actually convicted of something.

It's not like Pence's favorability is set in stone.

Pence hasn't done anything. This is basically the approval rating of vanilla pudding.
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I just think we should be prepared for operation "Trump-n-Dump" being very successful. The floor and standards have been set so astronomically low that I think it will be incredibly easy for Pence to score some political points or wins by acting "Presidential" and I believe he's reasonably competent enough and capable of doing that. And our media will be desperate to give him opportunities to boost himself.

I think he's done well enough to remain well liked amongst Trump voters and fans, while also maintaining the image of "politician who took on the patriotic duty of serving when asked", like Kelly, McMaster instead of "swamp monster who contributes to the problem" like Bannon to moderate conservatives and independents
 
J

jtb

Banned
I don't think anyone is going to escape from this Trump administration unscathed.

There will be no shortage of young Trump-clones that won't have the stink of being directly associated with the administration's failures for the Republican electorate to choose from, I bet.

Basically, you get Trump-lite with some plausible deniability.
 
B

Blader

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
I just think we should be prepared for operation "Trump-n-Dump" being very successful. The floor and standards have been set so astronomically low that I think it will be incredibly easy for Pence to score some political points or wins by acting "Presidential" and I believe he's reasonably competent enough and capable of doing that. And our media will be desperate to give him opportunities to boost himself.

I think he's done well enough to remain well liked amongst Trump voters and fans, while also maintaining the image of "politician who took on the patriotic duty of serving when asked", like Kelly, McMaster instead of "swamp monster who contributes to the problem" like Bannon to moderate conservatives and independents
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Pence wouldn't generate nearly the same level of enthusiasm that Trump did, but I do think he would energize the evangelical base better than McCain or Romney.

I do think that ultimately if Pence were to become president through Trump being impeached or resigned, he would end up losing re-election, whether that came in 2020 or especially 2024. But I also agree we shouldn't underestimate his chances. Ford may have lost to Carter in '76, but it was a pretty close loss.
 
E

Emarv

Member
jtb said:
If Joaquin won't run now, then when?
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Homeboy lives on CNN and talk shows. If he's putting in all this work for a higher profile and then doesn't run for higher office, it'd make no sense.

And has Julian done anything since leaving the administration? Legit question. Haven't heard from him since.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Emarv said:
Homeboy lives on CNN and talk shows. If he's putting in all this work for a higher profile and then doesn't run for higher office, it'd make no sense.

And has Julian done anything since leaving the administration? Legit question. Haven't heard from him since.
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He'd be hard pressed to find a more favorable environment for a Democrat to win in red territory than 2018, imo. Maybe in 2020 if he wants to go after Cornyn's seat, but I think that will be significantly more difficult than Cruz's seat or running for Governor.

Julian Castro's entire political career was predicated on being Hillary's VP for eight years. Whoops. I don't see how he has any political future unless he takes his brother's seat or something.
 
P

Pastry

Banned
Emarv said:
Homeboy lives on CNN and talk shows. If he's putting in all this work for a higher profile and then doesn't run for higher office, it'd make no sense.

And has Julian done anything since leaving the administration? Legit question. Haven't heard from him since.
Click to expand...

Julian just accepted a position at the University of Texas. He's going to be teaching some seminars on public policy for graduate students.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
jtb said:
He'd be hard pressed to find a more favorable environment for a Democrat to win in red territory than 2018, imo. Maybe in 2020 if he wants to go after Cornyn's seat, but I think that will be significantly more difficult than Cruz's seat or running for Governor.

Julian Castro's entire political career was predicated on being Hillary's VP for eight years. Whoops. I don't see how he has any political future unless he takes his brother's seat or something.
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Yeah, if there's a year to run as a Democrat in Texas and win, it's 2018. 2020 will have any Democrat running against the top of the ticket, and even if we did flip the state in the presidential race that would probably be on the back of some serious ticket-splitting. 2018 you have a race that Republicans are nowhere near as enthused to turn out for as they were in past midterms, and a massively unpopular Republican president (42/51 when Gallup last checked in on Texas). O'Rourke for Senate and Castro for Governor would be a great slate, as well.
 
E

Emarv

Member
jtb said:
He'd be hard pressed to find a more favorable environment for a Democrat to win in red territory than 2018, imo. Maybe in 2020 if he wants to go after Cornyn's seat, but I think that will be significantly more difficult than Cruz's seat or running for Governor.

Julian Castro's entire political career was predicated on being Hillary's VP for eight years. Whoops. I don't see how he has any political future unless he takes his brother's seat or something.
Click to expand...

Totally agreed. Beto only has the support he has right now because he's the Not-Cruz candidate. There's no reason Castro shouldn't run for that seat, imo.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Blader said:
Pence wouldn't generate nearly the same level of enthusiasm that Trump did, but I do think he would energize the evangelical base better than McCain or Romney.

I do think that ultimately if Pence were to become president through Trump being impeached or resigned, he would end up losing re-election, whether that came in 2020 or especially 2024. But I also agree we shouldn't underestimate his chances. Ford may have lost to Carter in '76, but it was a pretty close loss.
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Right, I still think Pence will have a lot of issues, and won't be able to run a fake populist campaign that excited and flipped so many voters

But his position is better than I think many believe and i think he'll be a tough opponent if it is down to him in 2020. Carter did not easily win in 76 despite being from a time where scandal actually mattered
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Emarv said:
Agreed. I just wonder what his internal polling is looking like for gov vs Senate. I'm down for a Governor run for him totally, though.
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It's hard to gauge which would be an easier race. States are more likely to buck their partisan lean for gubernatorial races, but Cruz is a much weaker incumbent than Abbott.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Emarv said:
Totally agreed. Beto only has the support he has right now because he's the Not-Cruz candidate. There's no reason Castro shouldn't run for that seat, imo.
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He's been touring the state and announcing policy positions since announcing. He's not the "Not Cruz" or "Not Castro" candidate.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Emarv said:
Totally agreed. Beto only has the support he has right now because he's the Not-Cruz candidate. There's no reason Castro shouldn't run for that seat, imo.
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Castro didn't want to because he said he absolutely hates congress and has no interest in getting into it

But if that's his opinion he should have just gotten out of politics all together. Completely not interested in the prospects of someone like him moving forward. Put in the work or gtfo.

If he doesn't want to run to congress then run for governor himself. But it doesn't look like he wants to do that either. If he doesn't even want to be governor then what the heck is he doing. How can he say he should be president.

His brother actually earned the right to run for governor because he's actually employed right now. If we do win in 2020 I also don't want there to be pressure to hand the dude a high level position just because. What's he done to earn it. Completely stupid.
 
K

Kaban

Member
Trump Jr will meet with senate panel for transcribed interview, as per CNN. It just flipped back to hurricane coverage, so couldn't get all the details.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Holmes said:
He's been touring the state and announcing policy positions since announcing. He's not the "Not Cruz" or "Not Castro" candidate.
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I don't mean to disparage his effort since announcing. His stuff has been all over my feed for the last few months. Dude is putting in the work!

I'm just saying that those same people who share all of his stuff on my feed have been with him since the very beginning, precisely because he came out as "Meet the Congressman trying to take down Cruz". Had Castro come out at the same time, I'm curious what the support for both would be.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Kusagari said:
Beto is a far better candidate than either Castro brother.
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The simple act of actually running versus hemming and hawing in the media about it and ultimately declining gives him the advantage.

Seriously nothing bugs me more than glory hogs who feed rumors about running for higher office only to dwell in their Congressional seat for like 500 years. Looking at you, Tim Ryan.
 
J

jtb

Banned
This is no time for political cowardice. If you're not going to take the risk of running in a race you might lose, then what are you even in politics for to begin with? Just the slow and steady accumulation of power?

And the thing is, Joaquin will probably be rewarded for taking the risk!

I really don't understand their political calculus.

Aaron Strife said:
The simple act of actually running versus hemming and hawing in the media about it and ultimately declining gives him the advantage.

Seriously nothing bugs me more than glory hogs who feed rumors about running for higher office only to dwell in their Congressional seat for like 500 years. Looking at you, Tim Ryan.
Click to expand...

Tim Ryan would rather run against Democrats than run against Republicans.
 
B

Blader

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Because Jimmy Carter was like the worst presidential campaigner, ever. Unforced errors, stupid remarks, crazy promises, poor debates, he had it all.

And he still won
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There's no guarantee that the next Dem nominee won't make unforced errors or stupid remarks (you know, like our last nominee).

All I'm saying is, there were a lot of people here who not only thought that Hillary was a slam dunk for 2016 but that there wouldn't be another Republican president for decades. We should not be repeating the same mistake of underestimating Republican nominees, whomever they are, and Mike Pence as a relatively well-liked vice president would be a very formidable opponent for any Democrat regardless of what happens to Trump.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Blader said:
There's no guarantee that the next Dem nominee won't make unforced errors or stupid remarks (you know, like our last nominee).

All I'm saying is, there were a lot of people here who not only thought that Hillary was a slam dunk for 2016 but that there wouldn't be another Republican president for decades. We should not be repeating the same mistake of underestimating Republican nominees, whomever they are, and Mike Pence as a relatively well-liked vice president would be a very formidable opponent for any Democrat regardless of what happens to Trump.
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Who was saying there wouldn't be another Republican president for decades? There was a certain degree of overconfidence in Clinton (although it was perfectly reasonable to think she would probably win given the polls going into Election Day) but if anything people were concerned that with a GOP Congress obstructing everything that she'd have a major uphill fight on her hands in 2020. At most I do remember some posts about the supposed "Blue Wall" (which got pushback) but I really don't remember anybody confidently predicting Dem presidents for decades.

If Mike Pence is the 2020 nominee (and I think there's a decent chance he is) then he absolutely could win, but I think part of being realistic is not inflating your opponent. His favorability numbers are middling, his social views are extreme, and he was unpopular as governor of Indiana. By no means do those things mean he can't win or even that he might be tough to beat in certain circumstances, but he's not exactly a once-in-a-generation political star.

I mean, no one is suggesting we don't put forward the best candidate possible or that we just assume 2020 is in the bag. Nor is anyone saying we just repeat all of the Clinton campaign's mistakes. But we're not up against a near-unbeatable juggernaut either.
 
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