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[Tallshortman]

Im thinking 549-599 or so, no way they will take a loss this time around. The company is barely sticking around as it is.

lol no it isn't, the company's financials are not going to be significantly impacted by the loss taken on consoles. R&D is a way bigger factor than selling hardware at a loss and this time around it looks like they really reigned in hardware R&D.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Looking at that costing, I think $399 is still surprisingly on the cards without breaking the bank. And if they can get this thing out for $399, I'd be genuinely amazed and impressed.

 

[Psychotext]

lol no it isn't, the company's financials are not going to be significantly impacted by the loss taken on consoles.

Tell that to the $5bn the xbox lost Microsoft and the PS3 lost Sony.

Both companies publicly stated (in quarterly / yearly reports) that hardware costs were what lost them that money.

 

[spwolf]

My point is valid. If they don't include the Move controller, what makes you think they will include the camera? A color bar?

$230+$350, Just an estimate, but what else do we have?

we have proper one:

edit: as to the camera, we know its in... it provides depth sensing for the controller, controller doesnt have the hardware.

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

double post.

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

So a couple of us at the bank have done a costing analysis this morning. I won't be able to give exact figures, as if we ever decide to release them publicly it will definitely blow my cover.

All figures in USD.

APU (CPU/GPU) - 85-90
8GB GDDR5 - 110-140
OS Chip (supposedly ARM based) - 12-18
Video encode/decode chip - 8-12
Blu-ray drive - 18-25
Hard drive - 38-50
I/O - 9-12
Wireless chip + antenna - 4
HDMI+HDCP - 11-15
Other - 25-35

Total - 320-401

These figures are preliminary, and do not include assembly costs, power costs, cooling or shipping as the final design has not been shown and can't be estimated at this time.

Please, please, please remember that this is based on the specification only and cost prices that we know, without a PS4 in the hand there will be mistakes.

This is way to low. The GPU by itself in PS3 at launch costed ~$120, it was the second most expensive item next to the $220 bluray drive. The Cell was around $80.

I would expect the APU to be at least $160. Also your "other" costs are too low. iSuppli last estimate of PS3 slim was ~$55 for other.

I'm predicting the total BOM to be between $500-600, with Sony taking about a $100 hit. we'll see once iSuppli does their analysis and teardown of the PS4.


edit: LOL wow I just saw the post above mine. Look how close my rsx and cell numbers were from memory.
edit: I was way off on the bluray drive though.

 

[Crunch2600]

included in the APU

Oh, I see. So, it's technically an APU, but it isn't using a GPU of the calibre of the PC APUs AMD has on, or intends to bring, on market, I guess. The Jaguar APUs they'll be releasing won't have a GPU as powerful as this, right? If correct, what's the estimated price of the APU based on?

 

[.GqueB.]

$429.99

 

[casmith07]

I'm still holding out hope for $399.

$499 wouldn't make me not buy it, but $399 pretty much lets me reach well for my "$600 Total Entry" pricepoint I personally set for myself, meaning $600 to spend on the console plus games and additional controllers or accessories.

 

[spannicus]

Vita Launched with puny 3G for 300 bucks, lol you guys really think Sony is only gonna charge 100 more for everything the PS4 is gonna come with lmao. 450 minimum but thats just my opinion. Smart phones cost more than what you guys are thinking its gonna be. Dont think its gonna cost lest than an I PAD OR IPAD MINI. I think if someone really wants a PS4 they will buy one no matter the cost especially when Sony delivered a hell of a machine. I love a deal but most people should understand that really good things dont come cheap. Shiiiiit people flock to Ipads, like free crack in the hood and they pay full price 500 or better for a tablet. I personally think 500 is justifiable.

 

[Stronty]

Dont forget the money Sony will be raking in on all the Bluray drives MS will be putting into the 720. Could be a billion $ over the 720's lifespan.

 

[dwu8991]

Dont forget the money Sony will be raking in on all the Bluray drives MS will be putting into the 720. Could be a billion $ over the 720's lifespan.

How then does MS make their x360 disc games compatible then ???

 

[kuroshiki]

How then does MS make their x360 disc games compatible then ???

Blu ray can read DVD.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Oh, I see. So, it's technically an APU, but it isn't using a GPU of the calibre of the PC APUs AMD has on, or intends to bring, on market, I guess. The Jaguar APUs they'll be releasing won't have a GPU as powerful as this, right? If correct, what's the estimated price of the APU based on?

Cost of a custom GPU, 8x Jaguar cores and cost of integration onto a single package. None of the separate components are particularly expensive and AMD have said they have perfected integration of CPU an GPU so that cost is quite low too.

It's actually not very expensive based on the info Sony have given out, Jaguar cores are very cheap and the GPU is equivalent to a 2010 flagship from ATi so build in 55nm to 28nm and you have a very big saving.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Dont forget the money Sony will be raking in on all the Bluray drives MS will be putting into the 720. Could be a billion $ over the 720's lifespan.

Isn't it proprietary Blu-Ray like what the WiiU has? I thought since they weren't "Blu-Ray" and just extremely similar, they didn't have to pay fees.

 

[jey_16]

Can Sony afford to lose a lot of money on each console sold? They were probably in a much better position financially in 2006 compared to now

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Are we factoring how much money a Japanese money loses by selling overseas with the exchange rate?

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Right, so we did the analysis of accessories:

DS4 - $18-30
PS4 Eye - $12-20
Mono headset - $3
Cabling/misc - $3

We also tackled the cooling, power and assembly, but these are almost like Alpha figures so they aren't worth all that much:

Internal PSU - $25-55
Cooling - $20-38
Assembly - $13 (Based on being made in China, for made in Japan, make that ~ $45)

Our total system cost estimate without shipping and packaging is ~ $450-490.

Once we get a look at the system we will get a better fix on the costs, our estimates have tended towards the conservative side so it may be cheaper than this initial estimate. Our biggest surprise was how cheap the Eye camera is, based on the spec it is basically just two plastic f2.0 lenses and a couple of cheap 720p sensors behind them. No processor is listed on the specification and it just outputs a RAW/YUV video stream much like the PSEye.

 

[Coconut]

So is the PS3 currently profitable or are they taking a loss. If it's still taking a loss I can't see the PS4 coming out if the gate taking a loss it needs to break even at minimum. I can't see them producing two consoles at a loss at the same time.

 

[Dreaver]

Right, so we did the analysis of accessories:

DS4 - $18-30
PS4 Eye - $12-20
Mono headset - $3
Cabling/misc - $3

We also tackled the cooling, power and assembly, but these are almost like Alpha figures so they aren't worth all that much:

Internal PSU - $25-55
Cooling - $20-38
Assembly - $13 (Based on being made in China, for made in Japan, make that ~ $45)

Our total system cost estimate without shipping and packaging is ~ $450-490.

Once we get a look at the system we will get a better fix on the costs, our estimates have tended towards the conservative side so it may be cheaper than this initial estimate. Our biggest surprise was how cheap the Eye camera is, based on the spec it is basically just two plastic f2.0 lenses and a couple of cheap 720p sensors behind them. No processor is listed on the specification and it just outputs a RAW/YUV video stream much like the PSEye.

Doesn't sound cheap, though I am happy we have 8gb of ram. I rather pay $50 more for 4gb. I hope Sony will release their console for $399, though I think it will be $449.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

So is the PS3 currently profitable or are they taking a loss. If it's still taking a loss I can't see the PS4 coming out if the gate taking a loss it needs to break even at minimum. I can't see them producing two consoles at a loss at the same time.

PS3 is currently sold at a very nice profit.

 

[BuzzJive]

Nice analysis. There's no reason that with Sony specific bulk purchasing and whatnot that it can't launch at $400, which would be under cost, but not by as much as the PS3 or even the Vita launched at.

 

[AranhaHunter]

Right, so we did the analysis of accessories:

DS4 - $18-30
PS4 Eye - $12-20
Mono headset - $3
Cabling/misc - $3

We also tackled the cooling, power and assembly, but these are almost like Alpha figures so they aren't worth all that much:

Internal PSU - $25-55
Cooling - $20-38
Assembly - $13 (Based on being made in China, for made in Japan, make that ~ $45)

Our total system cost estimate without shipping and packaging is ~ $450-490.

Once we get a look at the system we will get a better fix on the costs, our estimates have tended towards the conservative side so it may be cheaper than this initial estimate. Our biggest surprise was how cheap the Eye camera is, based on the spec it is basically just two plastic f2.0 lenses and a couple of cheap 720p sensors behind them. No processor is listed on the specification and it just outputs a RAW/YUV video stream much like the PSEye.

How can PS4Eye cost 20 bucks and Kinect cost over 100 at launch and Kinect 2 rumored to be over 100 as well? Doesn't make sense.

If your numbers are right, $399 for base SKU and eye on all SKUs are pretty much confirmed.

Also leave the opportunity wide open for Sony to do an affordable and attractive PS4/PSV bundle this holiday season (presumably, assuming vita gets a revision and its BOM goes down as well, Kawano said sony is losing price on HW at $200).

 

[zomgbbqftw]

How can PS4Eye cost 20 bucks and Kinect cost over 100 at launch and Kinect 2 rumored to be over 100 as well? Doesn't make sense.

If your numbers are right, $399 for base SKU and eye on all SKUs are pretty much confirmed.

Also leave the opportunity wide open for Sony to do an affordable and attractive PS4/PSV bundle this holiday season (presumably, assuming vita gets a revision and its BOM goes down as well, Kawano said sony is losing price on HW at $200).

Kinect has a lot of processors and the IR sensor in it which is said to be very costly. PS4Eye has none of this, according to the specification it is 2x f2.0 lenses and 2x 720p sensors (not even 1080p ones), we also assumed that PS4Eye would use mostly in house components so they won't have to pay over the odds.

 

[AgentP]

Right, so we did the analysis of accessories:


Internal PSU - $25-55
Cooling - $20-38
Assembly - $13 (Based on being made in China, for made in Japan, make that ~ $45)
.

Those upper ends sound really high, where do they come from? Cooling is an engineering problem, not really a cost one. PSU should be something simple, especially if it is external. The system will probably only be around 150W.

 

[Salaadin]

Right, so we did the analysis of accessories:

DS4 - $18-30
PS4 Eye - $12-20
Mono headset - $3
Cabling/misc - $3

We also tackled the cooling, power and assembly, but these are almost like Alpha figures so they aren't worth all that much:

Internal PSU - $25-55
Cooling - $20-38
Assembly - $13 (Based on being made in China, for made in Japan, make that ~ $45)

Our total system cost estimate without shipping and packaging is ~ $450-490.

Once we get a look at the system we will get a better fix on the costs, our estimates have tended towards the conservative side so it may be cheaper than this initial estimate. Our biggest surprise was how cheap the Eye camera is, based on the spec it is basically just two plastic f2.0 lenses and a couple of cheap 720p sensors behind them. No processor is listed on the specification and it just outputs a RAW/YUV video stream much like the PSEye.

How much do companies typically lose per console sold at launch time? Is a 400.00 price point for the PS4 actually feasible?

This whole thing is starting to remind me of the Vita. I was in the "no way that thing is less than 350.00" camp and then it was and all was good. If the PS4 pulls something similar, I might cry.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

They are sacrificing 50-70 usd for additional 4 gigs of memory to help developers - impresive.

That GDDR5 cost is insane. I'm really shocked the Sony managment allowed this. Still, it's going to be amazing for (hardcore) consumers.

this may have already been said in this thread, but I'm thinking maybe Sony cut some deals with big publishers for exclusives and better support in exchange for adding that extra RAM.

Could be a good strategy if they intend to draw support away from Microsoft.

 

[Coconut]

PS3 is currently sold at a very nice profit.

So lets say 450 American for a low end model of the PS4 550 for what ever their premium SKU is.

 

[Snakeyes]

$350-400 for the low end SKU.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Those upper ends sound really high, where do they come from? Cooling is an engineering problem, not really a cost one. PSU should be something simple, especially if it is external. The system will probably only be around 150W.

It will probably be internal if it follows PS3/Slim design philosophy. As for cooling, to some degree, but the APU will require a heat sink and thermal design challenges could lead to a requirement for higher quality components.

The estimates are very wide for these items because we haven't seen the design.

 

[ASIS]

How much did Sony lose over the last three home consoles percentage wise? If we see a trend there then "maybe" we can have a better understanding of their pricing strategy.

Also, how much does the Vita cost?

 

[Drek]

This is way to low. The GPU by itself in PS3 at launch costed ~$120, it was the second most expensive item next to the $220 bluray drive. The Cell was around $80.

I would expect the APU to be at least $160. Also your "other" costs are too low. iSuppli last estimate of PS3 slim was ~$55 for other.

I'm predicting the total BOM to be between $500-600, with Sony taking about a $100 hit. we'll see once iSuppli does their analysis and teardown of the PS4.


edit: LOL wow I just saw the post above mine. Look how close my rsx and cell numbers were from memory.
edit: I was way off on the bluray drive though.

The APU in the PS4 is an entirely different animal from the GPU in the PS3 though. In the PS3 they had a heavily customized build from Nividia, while the PS4's APU is heavily based on a well established, high yield ATi chipset.

The #1 cost by a mile on silicon is R&D. Sony's R&D costs for the PS4's APU should (inflation relative) be lower than that of the PS3's GPU. The #2 cost is poor initial yields in fabrication, again the PS4's APU is going to be superior to the PS3's GPU in that regard as well.

Much like the Vita, the PS4 is using standardized parts in a well thought out optimal configuration to provide a cost efficient, high powered product. Most thought the Vita's $250 price tag was crazy when first announced, and come to find out that entailed very little per unit loss for Sony, if any, with an OLED screen.

Now the PS4 has one premium priced "bell" amongst it's bells and whistles and that is the 8GB of GDDR5. But then we have no idea what kind of deal they've struck with their memory provider. They're using fairly new tech here, but memory prices drop like a rock once production is ramped up and yields improve. It's very possible that Sony is effectively subsidizing that for 4Gb chips and as a result would be able to demand near at cost pricing. They'll instantly be the biggest GDDR5 consumer out there.

 

[AranhaHunter]

How much do companies typically lose per console sold at launch time? Is a 400.00 price point for the PS4 actually feasible?

This whole thing is starting to remind me of the Vita. I was in the "no way that thing is less than 350.00" camp and then it was and all was good. If the PS4 pulls something similar, I might cry.

Sony lost over 200 on the PS3. 50-100 is pretty normal.

If his numbers are right, a $399 is all but a given. I have been saying I think it'll be:

$399
PS4, DS4, PS4Eye, HDMI, Headset, 500GB HDD, 1 month PS+

$499
PS4, DS4, PS4Eye, PSMove, PSNav, HDMI, Headset, 1TB HDD, 3 months PS+

$599
PS4, DS4, PS4Eye, HDMI, Headset, 500GB HDD, PSV (cheapest SKU available), 1 year PS+

Loses money on the core, break even on the premium, and depending on PSV's BOM at the time, break even on the bundle

How much did Sony lose over the last three home consoles percentage wise? If we see a trend there then "maybe" we can have a better understanding of their pricing strategy.

Also, how much does the Vita cost?

PS3 buckled that trend lol

PSV's BOM has been rumored from $154 to ~$200, maybe zomg can give a better range than me.

 

[Yasae]

Sony's balance sheet and share price would have an equal and opposite reaction.

But they'd explode! Into the red...

Cerny did not give a specific hard drive spec, implying there will be different sizes available at different price points. I imagine something in the $500 range will be premium. They aren't going back to $600 ever again.

 

[Pachinko]

It's going to cost 600-700$ to get one of these onto the store shelf and it will sell for around 500$ . Pachinkodamous predictions.

 

[Screenboy]

599

 

[Yasae]

Sony lost over 200 on the PS3. 50-100 is pretty normal.

If his numbers are right, a $399 is all but a given. I have been saying I think it'll be:

$399
PS4, DS4, PS4Eye, HDMI, Headset, 500GB HDD, 1 month PS+

$499
PS4, DS4, PS4Eye, PSMove, PSNav, HDMI, Headset, 1TB HDD, 3 months PS+

$599
PS4, DS4, PS4Eye, HDMI, Headset, 500GB HDD, PSV (cheapest SKU available), 1 year PS+

Loses money on the core, break even on the premium, and depending on PSV's BOM at the time, break even on the bundle



PS3 buckled that trend lol

PSV's BOM has been rumored from $154 to ~$200, maybe zomg can give a better range than me.

Ouch, bundle the vita in there for $600? They're going to have to make a new bare-bones SKU for that kind of margin shaving.

 

[Oppo]

Yeah it seems clear that the range will definitely be $400-500.

There's no way they will go anywhere near $600 after last time. The optics are horrible. I'd be really surprised if even a premium model crested $529.

I bet the thing becomes profitable somewhere between $400 and $430.

Hoping for a single SKU @ $450, will be very pleased with $400. I mean I'd pay whatever, but I'm concerned about mass market here

 

[Coconut]

Sony lost over 200 on the PS3. 50-100 is pretty normal.

If his numbers are right, a $399 is all but a given. I have been saying I think it'll be:

$399
PS4, DS4, PS4Eye, HDMI, Headset, 500GB HDD, 1 month PS+

$499
PS4, DS4, PS4Eye, PSMove, PSNav, HDMI, Headset, 1TB HDD, 3 months PS+

$599
PS4, DS4, PS4Eye, HDMI, Headset, 500GB HDD, PSV (cheapest SKU available), 1 year PS+

Loses money on the core, break even on the premium, and depending on PSV's BOM at the time, break even on the bundle



PS3 buckled that trend lol

PSV's BOM has been rumored from $154 to ~$200, maybe zomg can give a better range than me.

Those packages are nonsense specifically the vita bundle. If it can't survive on its own I don't see Sony producing a bunch of them a sending them to market also the 1tb hard drive is unlikely 250 or 350 and 500gb for the high end model.

 

[pestul]

Dont forget the money Sony will be raking in on all the Bluray drives MS will be putting into the 720. Could be a billion $ over the 720's lifespan.

A billion? seriously? I thought it was like $9 per device in 2009, and that's split between the entire Blu-ray consortium.. It's probably $5 or less by now.

If MS blew the gates off and sold 100M Durangos that would still only be $500M at max if Sony owned Blu-ray outright. I'm guessing Sony probably only gets a buck off of each device sold or less through this. MS probably bites them back with other licensing fees for codecs or something anyway.

 

[Coconut]

A billion? seriously? I thought it was like $9 per device in 2009, and that's split between the entire Blu-ray consortium.. It's probably $5 or less by now.

If MS blew the gates off and sold 100M Durangos that would still only be $500M at max if Sony owned Blu-ray outright. I'm guessing Sony probably only gets a buck off of each device sold or less through this. MS probably bites them back with other licensing fees for codecs or something anyway.

Accessories are where the big money is at.

 

[AranhaHunter]

Ouch, bundle the vita in there for $600? They're going to have to make a new bare-bones SKU for that kind of margin shaving.

Those packages are nonsense specifically the vita bundle. If it can't survive on its own I don't see Sony producing a bunch of them a sending them to market also the 1tb hard drive is unlikely 250 or 350 and 500gb for the high end model.

$600 would get you two consoles, the vita bundle would be something of a special edition and Shuhei himself said he would like to see something like that. Maybe not this year, but if the remote play thing is for real and works as good as advertised, then I wouldn't be surprised to see that bundle on BF 2014 (probably cheaper though).

We also don't know if the HDD will be 2.5 or 3.5 or proprietary, so those can all change. I was assuming 3.5 like PS2, but if it's 2.5 like PS3, then yeah maybe 250/500.

The other two prices and what they come with are reasonable based on what is being rumored.

 

[MikeE21286]

Right, so we did the analysis of accessories:

DS4 - $18-30
PS4 Eye - $12-20
Mono headset - $3
Cabling/misc - $3

We also tackled the cooling, power and assembly, but these are almost like Alpha figures so they aren't worth all that much:

Internal PSU - $25-55
Cooling - $20-38
Assembly - $13 (Based on being made in China, for made in Japan, make that ~ $45)

Our total system cost estimate without shipping and packaging is ~ $450-490.

Once we get a look at the system we will get a better fix on the costs, our estimates have tended towards the conservative side so it may be cheaper than this initial estimate. Our biggest surprise was how cheap the Eye camera is, based on the spec it is basically just two plastic f2.0 lenses and a couple of cheap 720p sensors behind them. No processor is listed on the specification and it just outputs a RAW/YUV video stream much like the PSEye.

We're fucked. Either that or Sony is lol

 

[Dartastic]

It's called a cost analysis buddy. Not a "costing" analysis.

 

[verbum]

I'm thinking $529 and $429 would be about right. A $500 purchase in a young married couple household is probably a purchase by mutual agreement. It might be tough for Sony if MS comes in at $349 for a decent game console. .

 

[SykoTech]

Interesting stuff, thanks for the effort.

I'm still firmly in the "they're crazy if there isn't a $399 starting SKU at the very least" camp.

 

[KingJ2002]

$399/500GB
$499/1TB

Lose money on the core, break even or make a little money on the premium. All SKUs include one DS4, one headset (confirmed), one PSE4YE

that's my bet as well.

it would be even sexier if Sony had a SSD or Hybrid option for the hard drive.

makes it that much more sexier.

 

[deviljho]

It's called a cost analysis buddy. Not a "costing" analysis.

just wow...

 

[sono]

Interesting analysis

 

[DaBoss]

I expect $450 being the turd pack and $499 or higher being the premium pack.

It's called a cost analysis buddy. Not a "costing" analysis.

Seriously...?