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[Killing_Joke]

$399 seems very plausible. Sony was able to launch the PS2 at $299 because of the beautiful profit the PSone was making. Or maybe they'll have a limited edition SKU for $499. They'll sell out easy for x-mas but would drop like a rock as the months go by. PS3 $199 for the holidays should help cover up any losses from the PS4. Now that Sony has PSN+, thrown in a free month in every box and that would kick off your new service with a huge start.

 

[Tex117]

That is not brutal.

 

[Chinpoko_Master]

How much cheaper will these parts be in approximately 9 months when it launches?

 

[TheExodu5]

Seems mostly reasonable, aside from PSU and cooling. I doubt either will be anywhere near the stated cost. And, of course, these costs don't take into account a massive production scale, which should certainly bring costs down. All in all, they're probably going to be able to sell this for roughly $500 and break even at worst. Maybe a loss leasing $400 SKU as well.

This is way to low. The GPU by itself in PS3 at launch costed ~$120, it was the second most expensive item next to the $220 bluray drive. The Cell was around $80.

I would expect the APU to be at least $160. Also your "other" costs are too low. iSuppli last estimate of PS3 slim was ~$55 for other.

I'm predicting the total BOM to be between $500-600, with Sony taking about a $100 hit. we'll see once iSuppli does their analysis and teardown of the PS4.


edit: LOL wow I just saw the post above mine. Look how close my rsx and cell numbers were from memory.
edit: I was way off on the bluray drive though.

PS3's GPU was reasonably high-end at launch. PS4's GPU is midrange at best. The CPU is a low power netbook variant. I would be surprised if the processor even cost that much.

 

[Arde5643]

Based on zomgbbqftw's analysis as well as Sony's current financial condition, anything below $400 is a no-go.

My guess is :

$450/tard pack
$550/premium pack
$350- less than $400 / premium pack with 2 yr subscription

I think both tard pack and premium pack won't break even although premium pack less so.

 

[Coconut]

How much cheaper will these parts be in approximately 9 months when it launches?

About the same it also doesn't help costs since these will be custom components built to fit the PS4 case. There isn't much of a secondary market to shift the price of these parts.

 

[Crunch2600]

$399 would be pulling a $250 Vita.

 

[EMT0]

I'm probably the exception but I'd happily buy a PS4+PSV bundle for 599.99, and based on the cost analysis I'm seeing here, it actually seems financially possible.

Good news for my pipe dream!

 

[googleplex]

$399 would be pulling a $250 Vita.

You mean awesome hardware for a excellent price?

 

[iamshadowlark]

This is way to low. The GPU by itself in PS3 at launch costed ~$120, it was the second most expensive item next to the $220 bluray drive. The Cell was around $80.

I would expect the APU to be at least $160. Also your "other" costs are too low. iSuppli last estimate of PS3 slim was ~$55 for other.

I'm predicting the total BOM to be between $500-600, with Sony taking about a $100 hit. we'll see once iSuppli does their analysis and teardown of the PS4.


edit: LOL wow I just saw the post above mine. Look how close my rsx and cell numbers were from memory.
edit: I was way off on the bluray drive though.

There's no way to quantify how much it costs to build this type of machine today at a mass scale, without access to bulk manufacturer data. Which Zomg has. You especially can't figure anything looking at PS3. We're looking at a almost net book class CPU and mid-high range GPU. Bluray is a commodity product and outside of the controller, everything else is standard fare.

The only way this thing approaches $500 is if they include things like the dual-camera, which I don't think they will.

 

[devonraynor]

450-500 normally
if MS sells lower, i think Sony is willing to sell at a loss for 400

 

[Korezo]

I just hope Sony doesn't cheap out on the design and materials used for the actual ps4 to save money or make console price cheaper. The ps3 revisions were a disgrace, ps3 went from high quality to cheap ass quality with each change. Please Sony... I hate owning cheap looking ugly things..

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

No, it will be $399 or $449. The $429 price point makes no sense whatsoever.

FWIW at the office everyone thinks $399 is locked from these specs, we figure Sony will eat $50-60 up front to get to $399 since that is just one accessory/online subscription and one game away from profitability which is not a big jump like PS3 which required 6 games and two accessories.

Wait. I thought the HW manufacturers only make $10-$15 on a single game in profit.

 

[pieatorium]

Wait. I thought the HW manufacturers only make $10-$15 on a single game in profit.

yeah thats why he said one accessory/subscription ($50) and one game ($10). Also Sony makes their own games so once the budget of said game is made back further sales of first party titles push this down further.

 

[Unknown One]

Perhaps they can sell at a reasonable lost if they can offset those with PS3 sales in the Holidays.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

yeah thats why he said one accessory/subscription ($50) and one game ($10). Also Sony makes their own games so once the budget of said game is made back further sales of first party titles push this down further.

Wait, profit on those accessories can't be $50. I know accessories are profitable but it's not 100% profit.

One game and one accessory don't equal $50 in profit.

 

[GashPrex]

My assumption is 499 and 550 premium bundle with game or something.

I think Durango will be 399 and 450 or something...though they might similarly price them for perception

 

[deviljho]

Perhaps they can sell at a reasonable lost if they can offset those with PS3 sales in the Holidays.

That's not exactly a situation geared toward building momentum for the PS4 install base. The PS4 has to avoid some of the issues that plague the PSV (in various degrees) in the west and in Japan. PS4 will be expensive and Sony has to find out the right balance of passing the cost to consumers and eating it themselves. I think their marketing will be more important than any one particular must-have game.

The advantage PS4 has (that let's say Wii U doesn't) is that developers will likely be more forgiving with a slower pace of hardware sales initially.

 

[Omnistalgic]

$399/500GB
$499/1TB

Lose money on the core, break even or make a little money on the premium. All SKUs include one DS4, one headset (confirmed), one PSE4YE

I like this...just add in one subsidized based unit for $299 with 2 years of plus and they've covered all bases...

 

[SummitAve]

$500 base model. $650 top bundle. I have a feeling that this generation in general will be more expensive than last.

 

[KefkaPalazzo]

$450 and $500 are my predictions...I could see $400 possibly...anything less is doubtful.

 

[dmr87]

I'm buying whatever the cost but I expect $399-$499.

 

[Loudninja]

$500 base model. $650 top bundle. I have a feeling that this generation in general will be more expensive than last.

What the hell haha.

Some really crazy prices in here

 

[Kambing]

Honestly i'm expecting:

$449/500GB - Break even "standard" model
$549/1TB - Profit "premium" model

Similarly to the Vita, i just don't see Sony pricing themselves out of the realm of profitability when taking into account the entire "cost" of purchasing the system. Given the numbers we have, i think pricing at $449 will lead to an initial lost that will be offset by the purchase of software, accessories and or subscription services such as PS+.

However, it is difficult to gauge for me personally if an initial price tag of $399 will yield that much more of a market share than at $449. But of course, all this specualtion does not take into account what Microsoft is going to price their system. In fact, more than anything Sony needs to have price parity with Microsoft upon launch.

Damn i just contradicted myself hahaha

 

[TheRagnCajun]

If the cost is indeed $500 I can see Sony selling for $400 with a premium SKU at $500

 

[RaijinFY]

zomg> do you have any estimation of what was CELL bom at PS3 launch?

EDIT: well, while we're at it, for blu-ray too?

 

[demosthenes]

zomg> do you have any estimation of what was CELL bom at PS3 launch?

EDIT: well, while we're at it, for blu-ray too?

~900+ for the whole PS3.

 

[-COOLIO-]

this really puts things in perspective. im willing to pay $500 day one if they bundle in a move controller and a game.

 

[Yasae]

It's called a cost analysis buddy. Not a "costing" analysis.

And this is called accosting ^

$600 would get you two consoles, the vita bundle would be something of a special edition and Shuhei himself said he would like to see something like that. Maybe not this year, but if the remote play thing is for real and works as good as advertised, then I wouldn't be surprised to see that bundle on BF 2014 (probably cheaper though).

We also don't know if the HDD will be 2.5 or 3.5 or proprietary, so those can all change. I was assuming 3.5 like PS2, but if it's 2.5 like PS3, then yeah maybe 250/500.

The other two prices and what they come with are reasonable based on what is being rumored.

Reasonable. Isn't it about time for the manufacture price to come down on the Vita too? It's been a year, perhaps there are some revisions...

Good mention on the HDD.

 

[RaijinFY]

~900+ for the whole PS3.

Yeah but more specifically CELL and blu-ray?

 

[AndyD]

Wait, profit on those accessories can't be $50. I know accessories are profitable but it's not 100% profit.

One game and one accessory don't equal $50 in profit.

A controller is $50-$60 or so new (at launch) and it costs about $20 to make. A Sony made and published game yields them about $15 out of $60, perhaps more. So you get very close to $50 with one of each.

 

[Yasae]

A controller is $50-$60 or so new (at launch) and it costs about $20 to make. A Sony made and published game yields them about $15 out of $60, perhaps more. So you get very close to $50 with one of each.

Accessories print money. They're expensive for a reason.

 

[AndyD]

Accessories print money. They're expensive for a reason.

Yep, HDMI cables, headsets and other minor stuff are pretty much free money to them, they cost $1-3 to make and sell for $15-$50.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

A controller is $50-$60 or so new (at launch) and it costs about $20 to make. A Sony made and published game yields them about $15 out of $60, perhaps more. So you get very close to $50 with one of each.

$20 to make the controller but does that take into account shopping, retailers cut, other expenses? And how many people are picking up these controllers? I just doubt those numbers that a game and controller will put Sony into the black. Would love to see some other sources confirming this (controller costs).

Otherwise, these guys can go take a fucking leap. I hated MS for their pricing this past gen on the hdd and the Wi-Fi dongle and I would be pissed off if any manufacturer was making $30-$40 on controller.

 

[Crunch2600]

You mean awesome hardware for a excellent price?

Yeah, that's exactly what I mean. It wasn't some slight against Sony.

 

[noah111]

I think even they don't have a concrete price set. It all comes down to what MS ends up offering, really. If there's is more expensive by a considerable margin, it's ovah.

 

[Espada]

$399 and $499 models is my guess.

The former will just be the base PS4, DualShock 4, and a smaller capacity HDD.
The latter will be the "bells and whistles" model with a nice subscription to PSN Plus, PS Eye packed in, and possibly a game.

They'll take a hit on the $399 models and recoup money on the premium priced ones. As stated earlier in the thread Sony is making a healthy profit off of PS3s and the hardware situation is completely different from the PS3 days.

There's also another factor to consider: A number of components of the machine will see cost reductions in the near future (the memory, for instance).

 

[SRG01]

I'd like to interject that, depending on the specs, the APUs, GDDR, etc can be selected from more bins. That alone will significantly reduce the cost of the silicon.

 

[RaijinFY]

Samsung is producing 4Gb chips too:

http://www.samsung.com/global/business/semiconductor/product/graphic-dram/catalogue

 

[Hazelhurst]

The big cost is not the parts but R&D.

Well, they saved a lot on R&D this time versus the Cell.

 

[onipex]

$450 and $500 is my guess. They went for the high end price with the Vita and I see them doing that again here.

 

[Hazelhurst]

I just hope Sony doesn't cheap out on the design and materials used for the actual ps4 to save money or make console price cheaper. The ps3 revisions were a disgrace, ps3 went from high quality to cheap ass quality with each change. Please Sony... I hate owning cheap looking ugly things..

Every PS3 model was made of the same material. Also, I think the PS3 slim introduced in 2009 was the best looking version.

 

[Iacobellis]

$450 and $500 is my guess. They went for the high end price with the Vita and I see them doing that again here.

High end price? The Vita itself is cheaper than anybody expected. Pre-E3, numerous people thought it would cost at the minimum of $400.

 

[To Far Away Times]

By the time you factor in the controller, shipping, and whatever cut retail will get, this thing is going to be FIVE HUNDRED AND NINETY-NINE U.S. DOLLARS all over again.

 

[Hazelhurst]

Plus the retail markup, which I've always heard to be 15%.

I don't think retailers make anything on the systems. It's the games and accessories that they profit from.

 

[Ranger X]

This means 399$ US is easily doable.
And Sony need it anyways if they want any kind of significant sales and not a "Vita 2".

 

[Baki]

The PS4 was definitely designed with $399 in mind. That said, if the PS4 ditched the PS4 Eye and the HDD (went for flash), they could afford a $349 PS4 with similar margins. I think they are waiting to see MS price before making such a drastic decisions. Otherwise, expect $399 and $499 SKUs.

 

[Loudninja]

By the time you factor in the controller, shipping, and whatever cut retail will get, this thing is going to be FIVE HUNDRED AND NINETY-NINE U.S. DOLLARS all over again.

Sure if you ignore Shuei and Jack Tretton comments.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=514833&highlight=

 

[polyh3dron]

Considering shipping costs, assembly costs, discounts for high quantities, r&d, Sony willing to take a small loss and all that, I'm guessing that the price will be $499.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I really think it depends on what Microsoft does. They have to be competitive with them.