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Roy Moore and Doug Jones tied in new Alabama Senate poll

B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
DMXzj5JWkAAym8h.jpg:large
 
S

skullmuffins

Banned
article with more details on the poll is here: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/10/17/fox-news-poll-alabama-senate-race-all-tied-up.html

The poll, released Tuesday, shows 42 percent of Moore's supporters have some reservations about their candidate. For Jones, that number is 28 percent.

Plus, 21 percent of those in the Jones camp say they're voting against Moore as opposed to for Jones. That's three times the number of Moore supporters who say their vote is based on dislike of Jones (7 percent).

Nearly half of those backing Jones (47 percent) and Moore (48 percent) say they ”strongly" support their candidate.

The main reasons Moore supporters give for backing him include party loyalty (41 percent) and his Christian beliefs (20 percent). Among Jones supporters, it is party loyalty (35 percent) and their belief Moore is extreme (32 percent).

In a Republican stronghold like Alabama, it helps Jones that Democrats are more likely to back him (85 percent) than Republicans are to support Moore (77 percent). Independents go for Jones by 33-26 percent (27 percent undecided).

Moore tops Jones among white evangelical Christians (+51), white men without a college degree (+48), and gun owners (+16).

Jones is preferred among blacks (+66), voters under age 45 (+14), and women (+3).

About 1 in 10 Trump voters defects to the Democratic candidate (11 percent). That's nearly three times the number of Clinton voters who are supporting Moore (4 percent).

Two months out, roughly 1 in 10 Alabamans is undecided about their vote in the Senate race (11 percent).

Thirty-three percent are unfamiliar with the Democratic candidate, while 12 percent say the same about Moore.

Still, more view Jones positively than negatively by 25 points (46-21 percent). Moore has a net positive of 10 points (49 percent favorable vs. 39 percent unfavorable).

About as many Alabama voters view Trump positively as negatively (48-47 percent). Four in 10 have a ”strongly" unfavorable opinion of the president.

Are Moore's attempts to define Jones as a liberal working? The poll finds 29 percent say Jones is too liberal for Alabama.

On the other hand, 39 percent of voters feel Moore is out of step with Alabama today. Even 24 percent of Republicans feel that way.
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H

hobozero

Member
Guy who opposed removing SEGREGATION from the state constitution has 42% of the vote.

Never change, Alabama. Oh wait, you probably won't... :(
 
RPGCrazied

RPGCrazied

Member
Its Alabama, I'm sure Roy will win, but love to see an upset there. Plus Roy is terrible and said some pretty vile things that should have disqualified him. Wait... who does that sound like?

The fucker is president.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
Vena said:
Its not about getting hopes up, its about the nuance that a once Republican strong-hold state and Senate seat is even up in the air.
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If this is close to the final result, then yes. But I'm not buying that this is even a single-digit race, much less tied, until election day.
 
A

Arc

Member
It will be a divisive R win on election day...but its fun to dream of the downstream effects of Jones winning.
 
X

Xe4

Banned
It's more than likely an outlier. Still, there's no reason not to rally everyone you know in AL to fight Moore. If nothing else, it'll make republicans sweat and spend money on the race. Best case scenario, the fuckers isn't elected (not likely), worst case nothing changes and Republicans had to spend money to ensure that (most likely).

Also, GET YOUR HOPES UP. Hopeful passion beats depressed pessimism any day of the week. And if you can't do that, get ANGRY. Both get people out to vote. Being pessimistic does not.
 
B

Brandon F

Well congratulations! You got yourself caught!
HStallion said:
Undecided now, Republican on voting day.
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Yep, some fence-sitters will publicly decline their support of the maniac or be too sensitive to say anything publicly, but when that voting card has that big (R) staring at them in privacy, their complete and total stupidity takes over.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
As others have said, the "unsure" are just embarrassed Republicans.

Although it's possible the stories about Moore skimming off the top of his own Christian charity org might actually work, much how the prostitution scandal surrounding David Vitter caused him to lose the governor's election in Louisiana to John Bel Edwards, a Democrat.
 
S

Steel

Banned
If Alabama is even a single digit difference race then the Republicans are gonna get eviscerated across the board.
 
B

Brakke

Banned
TangoAlphaLima said:
Fox News just trying to rally the base to get support for Moore.
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The Fox News polling operation is pretty much legitimate. Sometimes even methodologically sound polls end up outliers, that’s how error works.

The reason they decided to run the poll as a story is probably to rile up a base though, yeah.
 
V

Volimar

Member
This is the Trump effect. Polls show one thing when the reality is another because the public is too embarrassed to admit they're voting for a terrible person.
 
X

Xe4

Banned
Volimar said:
This is the Trump effect. Polls show one thing when the reality is another because the public is too embarrassed to admit they're voting for a terrible person.
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Polls were more or less ok in the election, especially national polls. State polls in general are less accurate for numerous reasons, but were still mostly in the (higher end) of the margin of error.

There's no convincing evidence that the shy Tory/Bradley effect has any meaningful consequence. Poor methodology is far more to blame when a poll is incorrect.
 
C

CazTGG

Member
VOTE!

Even if it's closer to 8%, vote!

Volimar said:
This is the Trump effect. Polls show one thing when the reality is another because the public is too embarrassed to admit they're voting for a terrible person.
Click to expand...

The polls were within the margin of error.
 
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