Yeah but they've all heard/seen them before. People who have never played Metroid before will have heard the name Samus before. The same with Captain Falcon (who people actually confuse with Falco...)
Haha no. People are not that videogame savvy. We (Gaffers/hardcore gamers) are an exception to the rule, we live in our own little bubble.
There are two insanely popular Nintendo characters, Mario and Pikachu. I have friends that have played both FZero and Metroid as kids and they'll have no idea who Captain Falco or Samus is, but if you say FZero or Metroid, they'll recognize it right away. Zelda/Link is a little more popular but not as ubiquitous as Mario or Pokemon. Hell, when I gave my GC with twighlight princess to my nephew, my sister kept referring to that game as the "peter pan" game lol
You know it's weird to say but I think microsoft has a much better stable of IP to choose from for this type of thing, despite sony having a much more relevant stable of IP.
Hopefully this is good though.
Master Chief, Joanna Dark, and what else? Fable guy? I guess you can say someone from Gears even though that's a 3rd party franchise. The rest of their franchises are even more niche than the Sony ones.
Why? I think the MS ip stable is pretty good, they just don't use it for shit. To my understanding MS would be able to include characters from these ip with no licensing fees.
Killer instinct
Gears of war
KI is co owned by Nintendo and Rare, there's a reason there has been no KI or its characters anywhere since they broke up. Gears is all Epic. There's a couple more on your list I'm not sure about but I don't care to look up. You can google copyright and patent ownerships and see for yourself if you're curious.
I'm not gonna guess characters but I definitely think there will be some 3rd party ones in there. Sony has good relationship with 3rd parties and I'm pretty sure they will try to include a couple of characters there. I also reckon it will be revealed at the VGAs.