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[superdeluxe]

Hopefully good news in this chaotic nitemare:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...f-11e5-925f-1d10062cc82d_story.html?tid=sm_tw

By Karen DeYoung February 22 at 11:44 AM

The United States and Russia have agreed to terms of a partial cease-fire in Syria, to go into effect at midnight Friday, according to Obama administration officials.

The terms, still to be announced in detail, are being briefed to a negotiating team representing the Syrian opposition, which has until noon Friday to approve them. It is unclear whether Russia is speaking for the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad in making the agreement.

President Obama was due to speak by telephone to Russian President Vladi­mir Putin on Monday, officials said.

Initially agreed to Feb. 12 by Secretary of State John F. Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, at a meeting with 15 other international stakeholders in the Syrian conflict, the cease-fire was supposed to go into effect last Friday. Since then, Kerry and Lavrov have held near-daily telephone calls to work out problems in the arrangement.

The agreement will allow ongoing airstrikes against the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria.

bolded is mine, If Syria is not held to the cease fire..then not sure how much of a difference it makes outside of Russia not bombing the turkmen or moderate Syrian rebels

 

[GTP_Daverytimes]

This ceasefire is a farce, not going to hold for a second.

 

[smurfx]

is saudi arabia going to stay the hell away from syria too?

 

[Nere]

If Turkey invades Syria let us see how much that cease fire will matter.

 

[superdeluxe]

Agreed. At Best, it is just a great looking headline. SO many different things going on in that region.

 

[dapperbandit]

Probably not worth the paper it's written on.

The timing of this ceasefire proposal is interesting as well, when the government forces are on the offensive and capturing a lot of ground back from the rebels.

But regardless of the the way things are on the ground, the government just isn't going to agree to any terms that ask Assad to stand down. And from Assad's perspective, why would he? He has the momentum currently. With Russian airpower and the SAA it's become a tangible possibility for the first time in years that there could be a military solution, even if in reality the ground war becomes an insurgency.

 

[gutter_trash]

If Turkey invades Syria let us see how much that cease fire will matter.

Poor Kurds.
The Kurds are the most positive force at fighting ISIS.

Turkey are being dicks.

Can we kick Turkey out of Nato please?

 

[superdeluxe]

Poor Kurds.
The Kurds are the most positive force at fighting ISIS.

Turkey are being dicks.

Can we kick Turkey out of Nato please?

Well come on now, Lets not to try paint a picture that the Kurds are entirely blameless in this.

And I don't think it is easy to kick out another NATO country.

 

[Phantast2k]

Pentagon, CIA Chiefs Don’t Think Russia Will Abide by Syria Cease-Fire - WSJ

President Barack Obama’s top military and intelligence advisers don’t believe Russia will abide by a just-announced cease-fire in Syria and want the administration to ready plans to increase pressure on Moscow by expanding covert support to rebels fighting the Russian-backed Assad regime.
Defense Secretary Ash Carter; Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and Central Intelligence Agency Director John Brennan have voiced increasingly hawkish views toward Moscow in recent White House meetings, jointly calling for new measures to “inflict real pain on the Russians," a senior administration official said.

(To Read the Full Story, Subscribe or Sign In)

Summary of the rest:

- There's pressure on Obama by said hawks to counter Russian aggression

- But then there's a risk of a semi open proxy war with Russia (like in Afghanistan)

- RU bombing campaign mainly hit CIA-backed rebels

- Unclear whether supplying the remaining rebels would turn the tide in any way

- Obama has opposed supplying the rebels with advanced ground to air weapons in the past & also prevented the rebel-friendly regional powers from doing so (Thanks Obama)

- Discussions suggest that this "Plan B" to be proposed by Carter and Dunford is likely to include suggestions on how to pressure Moscow outside of just arming the rebels

- Among the options of supporting the rebels is providing them with intelligence to better defend themselves (how is this not happening yet?)

- There's wide support for more economic sanctions in the administration, but the Europeans are likely to oppose (...)

- Carter warned that negotiations with the Russians were likely to offend the regional partners

- Talk of how Russia escalated its bombing campaign during the Geneva talks & how Carter thinks it's a ruse (oh hey, it's Ukraine all over again)

(He's likely correct. For instance the bombing of Talibiseh continued today).

...and I grew tired of summarizing.

Given his track record it's hard to believe Obama is going to do anything meaningful to contain Putin. He'll also want to leave office as clean as possible.
So in the end, the risk of a regional war, one between Turkey & Russia or a greater Shia vs. Sunni one, is going to grow.

 

[Oriel]

If Turkey invades Syria let us see how much that cease fire will matter.

There won't be a Turkish invasion, it was all psy-ops by Russia claiming a massive invasion was imminent. And any ceasefire is equally a sham.

 

[FreedomFighter]

This ceasefire is a farce, not going to hold for a second.

I agree.

Anyone notice how since last summer, the Brookings Institute, and more recently, John Bolton in two NYT op-eds called for the partition of Syria and creating a Sunnistan.

Now John Kerry talking about partitioning Syria as a "plan B" if the ceasefire fails.

And people say the neo-cons aren't running the show.

And SAA along with Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and perhaps the Kurds would just go on fighting rather than see Syria broken up.

If Turkey invades Syria let us see how much that cease fire will matter.

I predict another bomb conveniently goes off in Turkey, Erdogan and Davultoglu will blame the Kurds, as usual, attack Kurdish positions... again.

Turks and Saudi's are livid. Everyone is witnessing how much of a madman Erdogan is and the Saudis are having meltdowns left and right.

 

[Yamauchi]

I hope it works but I doubt it. The good news, I guess, is that the SAA and the YPG seem to be on good terms these days, and they have control over about 80% of the population, so if it comes to a slow reconquest of Syria, they'll have the resources to do it.

 

[thefro]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/28/fragile-syria-ceasefire-enters-second-day

Good news... seems like it's mostly holding so far although both sides reporting some breaches, but things are way quieter and aid might be able to get in.

 

[params7]

Yeah, Kerry talking about plan B had me facepalming hard. Tough, tough times ahead for Syria. Neither side wants to let go.

 

[Rebel Leader]

It somewhat worked?

 

[Phantast2k]

It somewhat worked?

Not really. It's Russian "cease, fire" like we've seen in Ukraine.

AP: Opposition activists report airstrikes in northern Syria

Just from today:
Talbiseh

Idlib (Al-Najiyeh)

Jisr al-Shughour

Teir Maalah
More from Teir Maalah
And even more.

Hirbnafsah
More from Hirbnafsah

Darat Izza

And why is it not working? Because according to Russia practically everything held by the rebels is Al Nusra territory: Russian military officials prove Russia will not adhere to the Syria ceasefire | Conflict Intelligence Team

According to the map’s legend, the ceasefire areas are marked in blue while areas allegedly held by Jabhat al-Nusra, an Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, are marked in green.

Even where they declared ceasefire, they're still bombing (e.g. Talbiseh):

@CITeam_en
Airstrikes reported on Talbiseh, which, according to @mod_russia, is subject to ceasefire.

 

[Suen]

Yeah, Kerry talking about plan B had me facepalming hard. Tough, tough times ahead for Syria. Neither side wants to let go.

Hopefully the rebels are wiped out, SAA and Russia has made good gains recently so that's positive news. The region doesn't need another Saudi Arabia. The "moderate" cia-backed rebels are just as terrible, a bunch of radical Islamic nutjobs who have plenty of connections with al-Qaida, Isis and other Sunni radical groups not to mention lots in common with them. SAA aside you have YPG and SDF, both effective fighters against these extremists and both being bombed by Erdogan and his terrorist gang - radical Sunni Islamic rebels. The more Russia expands in the country the better resistance against radical Sunni groups and their supporters under western hegemony. If Iraq wasn't under the threat of US influence you'd have already seen Russian air strikes acting as support there as well along with IAF and the coalition.

Also some idiots are reporting that all air strikes violate the ceasefire, but some air strikes are carried out in order to prevent the ceasefire from being broken. I think we can expect both US and Russia to do this if necessary.

 

[old]

I still don't understand why we are involved in this. Fuck Obama. Another war monger like the rest.

 

[pgtl_10]

There are no moderate Syrian rebels. That's a farce that only surfaced when Russia started bombing.