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Sony announces Q2 results

Lagspike_exe said:
Kinect won't even come close to boosting 360 in the same way GT5 will do for Playstation. Not even close.
Would you care to make a wager of...

let's say...

$500,000,000?

O0xQz.png


This post is not endorsed by its poster.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
AranhaHunter said:
I like Chris1964's numbers and posts about past games, but not so much about predicting the future as he has been wrong plenty of times before there.

With that said, I kinda agree with him in the sense that I'm having a hard time seeing GT5 hitting 1 million in Japan. I hope to be wrong about that though, hopefully we'll get a release date soon because the delay pissed me off.
I' ve been wrong but ''plenty of times'' is stretching.
 
N

NinjaFridge

Unconfirmed Member
Karma said:
2.9 Million difference. PS3 should pass the 360 in hardware by the end of 2011.



He is wrong then. 360 has shipped 44.5 Million.

You say shipped, he says sold.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
NinjaFridge said:
You say shipped, he says sold.

100% of the time that any number is given and doesn't directly quote NPD, Media-Create/Enterbrain/Dengeki, or Chart Track, it means "shipped" even if it says "sold".
 
N

NinjaFridge

Unconfirmed Member
Stumpokapow said:
100% of the time that any number is given and doesn't directly quote NPD, Media-Create/Enterbrain/Dengeki, or Chart Track, it means "shipped" even if it says "sold".

*Long fanboy rant on why you are wrong and i am right, followed by complaints that mods are biased*
 

jcm

Member
The transcript of the US call is available on Seeking Alpha. Some interesting bits:

Game sales decreased 13% year-on-year to ¥171 billion. This is primarily due to a decrease in unit sales of PSP hardware and PS2 software, although PS3 hardware and software sales were strong. Operating results improved ¥54 billion year-on-year to ¥13 billion profit. This significant improvement resulted from the PS3 hardware cost reductions and an increase in unit sales of PS3 software despite the negative impact of exchange rates. As I mentioned earlier, the game business has been profitable for four consecutive quarters.

PS3 hardware sales units were 3.5 million units, more than 3.2 recorded in the same quarter last year when the new PS3 model was introduced. This was driven by an introduction hit software titles. We are on track to reach our target of 15 million units for the year. With the launch of the PlayStation Move in September and other actions momentum is growing for the year-end selling season.


...

I will start with the gaming PS3. There are no inventory charges affecting the profitability of PS3 in the second quarter. Cost have come down, again the negative margins on the hardware have been eliminated since last April so, we are in the mode of making money on each unit we sell at the moment. So, the profitability with a combination of reduced costs in the PS3, quite impressive sales on the software of PS3 and reduction in SG&A.

...

Just add a little bit on gaming, we sold 2.5 million Move machine in the US and Europe and the momentum continues to be very strong, yeah.
 

onken

Member
jcm said:
I will start with the gaming PS3. There are no inventory charges affecting the profitability of PS3 in the second quarter. Cost have come down, again the negative margins on the hardware have been eliminated since last April so, we are in the mode of making money on each unit we sell at the moment. So, the profitability with a combination of reduced costs in the PS3, quite impressive sales on the software of PS3 and reduction in SG&A.

Eh, didn't they just announce in one of their press releases that they were hoping to hit profitability on hardware by the end of FY10?
 

Majine

Banned
Stumpokapow said:
100% of the time that any number is given and doesn't directly quote NPD, Media-Create/Enterbrain/Dengeki, or Chart Track, it means "shipped" even if it says "sold".
So... if this does indeed mean shipped, then the gap between the two HD consoles is even smaller. :lol
 

Baki

Member
onken said:
Eh, didn't they just announce in one of their press releases that they were hoping to hit profitability on hardware by the end of FY10?

Apparently the hardware has been profitable since April.
 

szaromir

Banned
Majine said:
Guess not. But shipped vs. shipped is probably as close to the truth as we will get then.
Then let's stick to the 2.9M and not speculate which manufacturer overstuffs the retail channel.
 
szaromir said:
Then let's stick to the 2.9M and not speculate which manufacturer overstuffs the retail channel.

They both do.

Although it wouldn't be a stretch to assume that MS have ensured that anyone who does not yet own a 360 and wants a Kinect will be able to buy both.
 

jcm

Member
onken said:
Eh, didn't they just announce in one of their press releases that they were hoping to hit profitability on hardware by the end of FY10?

They've been talking about having a full year profit for the gaming unit as a whole. Perhaps that's what you're thinking of?
 

Ashes

Banned
Stumpokapow said:
100% of the time that any number is given and doesn't directly quote NPD, Media-Create/Enterbrain/Dengeki, or Chart Track, it means "shipped" even if it says "sold".

NO. You are wrong. It's 99% of the time. Want to bet? :lol
 

Triple U

Banned
onken said:
Eh, didn't they just announce in one of their press releases that they were hoping to hit profitability on hardware by the end of FY10?
No they talked about profit on every console a while back now.
 

szaromir

Banned
MrNyarlathotep said:
They both do.

Although it wouldn't be a stretch to assume that MS have ensured that anyone who does not yet own a 360 and wants a Kinect will be able to buy both.
I don't think MS overshipped in last quarter, they did have very high sell-through in the US and higher than usual in Europe. I'd guess it's October when the serious shipping of Kinect-related SKUs began to appear in retailers' warehouses.
 

jcm

Member
MrNyarlathotep said:
They both do.

Although it wouldn't be a stretch to assume that MS have ensured that anyone who does not yet own a 360 and wants a Kinect will be able to buy both.

I don't know of any reason to believe either company is overstuffing.
 
jcm said:
I don't know of any reason to believe either company is overstuffing.

Both companies stuff channels to some degree all the time because it's in their interests to have full channels and move units in advance of sales. Neither, I think, is doing so in any aggressive or misleading manner right now, but it will mean that the vagaries of shipping will produce variance on the level of a few million here or there.

About the best you can do on this sort of comparison is to look at shipped numbers from three or four consecutive quarters, sanity-check them based on what sold info is available, and produce a ballpark number that way. 3 million should be relatively close, but the margin of error on that is probably something like +/- 3 million in each direction. :lol
 

Ashes

Banned
charlequin said:
Both companies stuff channels to some degree all the time because it's in their interests to have full channels and move units in advance of sales. Neither, I think, is doing so in any aggressive or misleading manner right now, but it will mean that the vagaries of shipping will produce variance on the level of a few million here or there.

About the best you can do on this sort of comparison is to look at shipped numbers from three or four consecutive quarters, sanity-check them based on what sold info is available, and produce a ballpark number that way. 3 million should be relatively close, but the margin of error on that is probably something like +/- 3 million in each direction. :lol

nah... they can't be off by a whole quarter worth of stuff... because then they would shipping to stuffed channels... and that doesn't make much sense...
I reckon, it's the big retailers that make or break things.. companies like, Walmart, amazon, etc,
 

spwolf

Member
it is sold to retailers, not just shipped, so there is no way they stuff the channel - you would see negative effects of that next quarter, it is simple.
 
Ashes1396 said:
nah... they can't be off by a whole quarter worth of stuff... because then they would shipping to stuffed channels... and that doesn't make much sense...

Each manufacturer is supplying retail channels across the entire world, which have varying levels of inventory they're interested in and/or willing to carry. Depending on how close to "sold out" retail is, and how bullish on the product retailers are, and how much the company is entreating retail to stock heavily, each of Microsoft and Sony could have anywhere between, say, 1 and 4 million units in retail inventory worldwide. (It's also possible to mess around with shipments that happen near the edge of a quarter to push them to one side or the other, which wouldn't really be channel stuffing from retail's perspective but would alter the numbers we see reported.)

Then you have to note that these variances are independent. At any given time, MS might be sold through up to 4 million while Sony is only at 1 million, or vice versa.

Therefore, either of the following are possible (entirely fake numbers for illustration):

360: 44m sold through, 45m shipped
PS3: 39m sold through, 43m shipped

(shipped variance of 3m, sold variance of 6m)

360: 44m sold through, 48m shipped
PS3: 44m sold through, 45m shipped

(shipped variance of 3m, sold variance of 0)

This is why it makes sense to compare multiple quarters of shipped data at once and sanity-check them with whatever sold data we might have; otherwise the fact that both companies are shipping independently and we're only measuring on a relatively wide period makes the overall variance of our data pretty high.
 

Ashes

Banned
Still disagree. Can't see a retailer, even as big as Walmart, being off, by hundreds of thousands of units... perhaps tens of thousands, but definitely not hundreds and thousands.... and I'm working on the principle that it is these retailers you can channel stuff through...
ps. and the only time I think you can channel stuff is christmas time I reckon... I can't see people overstocking during the calmer months...
 

Road

Member
Estimated sell-through for 2010 based on Media-Create, NPD and Nintendo data (Chart-Track/Gfk and others for Europe):

pR0vV.png
 

Brimstone

my reputation is Shadowruined
I'm really baffled that Sony hasn't made an alliance with Panasonic to re-enter the Plasma display market. They are now heading into SEVEN straight years of losing money selling TVs.

Sony also announced Friday that it has abandoned its fiscal 2010 goal of returning its TV operations to the black. The move was prompted by cooling demand in North America and intensifying price competition. Ringing up sales of roughly 1 trillion yen, TVs are Sony's single biggest seller, but they had been mired in red ink for six straight years through fiscal 2009.

http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20101029D29JFA12.htm

Both Panasonic and Sony are the largest patent holders in Blu-Ray, so why not form a Plasma display alliance? It was a mistake for them to leave the Plasma market 6 years ago. It isn't like Plasma would generate massive profit, but at least it would restore some of the prestige Sony TVs used to have.
 
Brimstone said:
I'm really baffled that Sony hasn't made an alliance with Panasonic to re-enter the Plasma display market. They are now heading into SEVEN straight years of losing money selling TVs.



http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20101029D29JFA12.htm

Both Panasonic and Sony are the largest patent holders in Blu-Ray, so why not form a Plasma display alliance? It was a mistake for them to leave the Plasma market 6 years ago. It isn't like Plasma would generate massive profit, but at least it would restore some of the prestige Sony TVs used to have.

I'd be all over a Sony plasma, if only because it is clear Panasonic has no intention of improving picture quality and fixing the black level issues on their displays. Sony still has some of that "we're going to make the best and we don't give a damn about anything else" in their DNA that made Pioneer so awesome.

And isn't PDP still a cheaper technology once you get past 50"?
 
Ashes1396 said:
Still disagree. Can't see a retailer, even as big as Walmart, being off, by hundreds of thousands of units... perhaps tens of thousands, but definitely not hundreds and thousands.... and I'm working on the principle that it is these retailers you can channel stuff through...

What do you mean by "off"? Wal-Mart has 8,500 stores. If each store tries to maintain a stock of 10 units at all times, that's 85,000 unsold units at Wal-Marts alone at any given time. If there's intermediate stock (sold through to the chain but not yet delivered to individual locations) it could be higher. Expanded out over all retailers worldwide, the amount of stock that's in between shipping and selling can get quite high.

It's not at all unusual to have millions of units at various points in the retail channel when you're measuring worldwide and especially in the lead-up to a holiday, relaunch, price drop, or other promotion. Broadly speaking, there's a limit to how much retail will stock and so there's a relationship between sales and shipments; it's just that the buffer between the two varies over time and sometimes varies more over time for some products or manufacturers than others.

Again, I'm not talking about anyone stuffing literally millions of unwanted items into the channel; I'm talking about how a) the retail channel has a huge number of as-yet unsold items (inventory) at any given time just normally, and b) a variety of factors (including how aggressively the manufacturer wants to ship items in a given period) affect that up or downwards. These factors are the whole reason the "shipped not sold" mantra exists in the first place; shipped figures aren't a good substitute for consumer sell-through and can be off in a number of ways, ways that become even more significant when we compare two different shipped numbers to one another.
 
Link: Sony Management Discusses F2Q10 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

The results for the second quarter and our upwardly revised earnings forecast for the full fiscal year are reflective of the strong operational turnaround that the company is experiencing. Unlike a year ago, when the bulk of our earnings and our earnings growth came from the financial services businesses, we are experiencing expanding margins in our core businesses with substantial improvement.In particularly this past quarter from both game and VAIO. In fact, this is the fourth consecutive quarter that the game business has been profitable and the third consecutive quarter the Sony Ericsson has been profitable. As a result, we are on track to achieve ¥170 billion year-over-year improvement in operating profit.

The recent successes of innovative products as well as building momentum in new products are helping us to achieve the success. For example, Sony Ericsson Xperia X10 smartphone achieved 21% market share shortly after its launch in Japan. Our new NEX-3 and NEX-5 cameras with interchangeable lenses have met with great success and the recent launch of both Sony Internet TV powered by Google TV and the PlayStation move are both off to a very strong start.Similarly, our entertainment businesses continue to generate earnings in line with our plan, and we have a very strong pipeline of upcoming movies and music in the next six months. In addition, the video game pipeline has a number of image titles including Gran Turismo 5, LittleBigPlanet 2, and Killzone 3...

Game sales decreased 13% year-on-year to ¥171 billion. This is primarily due to a decrease in unit sales of PSP hardware and PS2 software, although PS3 hardware and software sales were strong. Operating results improved ¥54 billion year-on-year to ¥13 billion profit. This significant improvement resulted from the PS3 hardware cost reductions and an increase in unit sales of PS3 software despite the negative impact of exchange rates. As I mentioned earlier, the game business has been profitable for four consecutive quarters.PS3 hardware sales units were 3.5 million units, more than 3.2 recorded in the same quarter last year when the new PS3 model was introduced. This was driven by an introduction hit software titles. We are on track to reach our target of 15 million units for the year. With the launch of the PlayStation Move in September and other actions momentum is growing for the year-end selling season.


Link: Question-and-Answer Session

Q: Daniel Ernst - Hudson Square Research

I have a couple of questions on game and a couple of questions from the TV side. First on the game profitability, what is [happening] with contribution from reversal of prior period inventory charges? Secondly,can you comment on the sales of the new Move motion controller?

On the TV side given the deterioration in sales here in North America, what gives you the confidence to maintain the overall forecast for 25 million units globally? Can you comment on the reception or proportionate sales coming from 3D televisions? Finally, could you comment on the recent moves by the US Broadcast Networks to block access to the video sites from the Sony internet powered Google TV? Thank you.

A: Masaru Kato


I will start with the gaming PS3. There are no inventory charges affecting the profitability of PS3 in the second quarter. Cost have come down, again the negative margins on the hardware have been eliminated since last April so, we are in the mode of making money on each unit we sell at the moment. So, the profitability with a combination of reduced costs in the PS3, quite impressive sales on the software of PS3 and reduction in SG&A.

On the TV side, 25 million, a lot depends on how we do in the third quarter which includes the holiday season. If you look at the business on the global basis, it’s a different picture region by region. If you take the emerging markets Brazil, Russia, India, China they are all doing double digit growth in the TV area at least for our business okay. If you look at Japan our sales is booming in TV because we have this government subsidy in place and you get a refund for certain categories of TV that you buy.

Excluding those areas if you look at North America is a little bit troublesome in that sell through for the past several months have been below last year’s level, and we see some slight develop in inventory. That’s one soft spot we have. All in all, we are still aiming to do 25 million but a lot depends on third quarter.

A: Robert Wiesenthal


Just add a little bit on gaming, we sold 2.5 million Move machine in the US and Europe and the momentum continues to be very strong, yeah.

A: Masaru Kato

On 3D our expectations at the beginning of the year was to do about 10% of our sales. It’s quite early days but so far our forecast seems to be a little bit high in that it’s a little bit below expectations, but think we have to wait for good software (inaudible) to be available for the consumers to really measure what 3D can do for us.

Q:Mark Harding - Maxim Group

Lastly, I want to touch on a few questions from the Tokyo call, I got specifically relating to the product roadmap for PSP and certain mobile gaming as well as tablet, given that most PC companies are coming out with tablet and PSPs really started to show its age at this point. How you are handling the product roadmap or perhaps I can put this in another way, is there a sense of urgency to accelerate product development for the time to market compete more effectively with some of these non traditional competitors like Apple.

A: Masaru Kato

I don’t think we can discuss specific product or features at this conference call. Mobile gaming is a very important business area for us. We started out with the PSP that was our first mobile gaming console, but since then the market as you know has expanded in to bigger arenas that gaming on mobile phones, gaming on tablets, gaming on and also certain mobiles devices.

The PSP being a proprietary platform was more concentrated I’d say core gaming segment rather than the light game, but now we are addressing that market as well. I can not be specific as to how we will introduce new product to address these market, but one thing I can say is that we have those markets address and we will come out with products and services to capture the broader gaming market.

I know this will be a clip of answer, but please wait until we are ready to announce whatever products or services that we may come up with.

A: Robert Wiesenthal

In addition to our strength obviously in the hardware, the strength obviously we have strength around our gaming business having our own gaming content. We have the network services and also we have many different types of devices and the interconnectivity between the devices certainly help our business proposition be more interesting to the consumer and that’s what we have to do.

Mark Harding - Maxim Group

Okay fair enough. Thank you, very much
 

Indyana

Member
Baki said:
Its not even the whole of Europe. Just Spain, Germany, France and the UK.
I don't know if it's the whole Europe, but the charts have different sources and explanations so I think there are more countries in the weekly sales.
x4X0E.jpg

gKUnp.jpg


You can also compare the second chart sales with the pixel-counting Road has done.
Road said:
Estimated sell-through for 2010 based on Media-Create, NPD and Nintendo data (Chart-Track/Gfk and others for Europe):

pR0vV.png
Thanks a lot. So looking at the January - September distribution:

Wii = 3.48 + 3.04 + 1.93 = 8.45
PS3 = 2.2 + 2.4 + 3.5 = 8.1
360 = 1.5 + 1.5 + 2.8 = 5.8

It seems that Microsoft has been clearing stock and / or is about to refill it.
 

Elios83

Member
Stronger results than I expected for PS3 and PS2 which will probably do better than their forecast for the FY. PS3 will be huge (and will probably peak) when the price is cut to 199$/€ next year. Fact that they have been profitable on the hardware since last April will help.
Now what about the GT5 release date Sony?
 

avaya

Member
There is still room for significant cost reductions on PS3 hardware - Blu-ray drive costs are still the largest and should fall by 30% through this year. RSX shrink also has to be in the works.

Brimstone said:
I'm really baffled that Sony hasn't made an alliance with Panasonic to re-enter the Plasma display market. They are now heading into SEVEN straight years of losing money selling TVs.



http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20101029D29JFA12.htm

Both Panasonic and Sony are the largest patent holders in Blu-Ray, so why not form a Plasma display alliance? It was a mistake for them to leave the Plasma market 6 years ago. It isn't like Plasma would generate massive profit, but at least it would restore some of the prestige Sony TVs used to have.

They are basically fucked if they don't fix their TV business. Panasonic has no incentive to get into Plasma with Sony.
 

yurinka

Member
thuway said:
If Move actually makes any sort of momentum, there'll be another avenue of conscious revenue for Sony.

Next year is going to be huge:

Killzone 3
Little Big Planet 2
Infamous 2
Motorstorm Apocalypse
Resistance 3
The Last Guardian
Versus XIII in Japan (lol?)
PSP2

And than bring on 2012.... where we will no doubt hear murmurs of the PS4 :).
Considering GT5 is going to be released late December, I would almost include it here. I think it will move more consoles than all the other games combined.

I'm pretty sure Uncharted 3 will be released in 2011, too.

And who knows, maybe even PS Phone and PS tablet are going to be released this year.
 

Laguna

Banned
Don´t know if it was mentioned already but since a while Sonys console division merged together with some others into the "Networked Products & Services" division (which houses the Playstation products, Vaio PCs and other devices).
 

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
Brimstone said:
Both Panasonic and Sony are the largest patent holders in Blu-Ray, so why not form a Plasma display alliance? It was a mistake for them to leave the Plasma market 6 years ago. It isn't like Plasma would generate massive profit, but at least it would restore some of the prestige Sony TVs used to have.
Sony TV's still have prestige. Maybe not compared to before, but it's still there.

As for Plasma, I don't think they sell enough to warrant Sony moving in at this point? They've been dropping techs that don't sell enough units, not intentionally adding it. Also, the largest patent holder reasoning doesn't really hold water. Panasonic has been (and I suspect will continue to be) amongst the largest share-holders for all digital video discs. They're the reason DVD won over the Sony/Phillips offering way back when.

That said, I would love to see them move back to Plasma :)





H_Prestige said:
I'd be all over a Sony plasma, if only because it is clear Panasonic has no intention of improving picture quality and fixing the black level issues on their displays. Sony still has some of that "we're going to make the best and we don't give a damn about anything else" in their DNA that made Pioneer so awesome.

And isn't PDP still a cheaper technology once you get past 50"?
Your statement regarding Panasonic is patently false. They have continued to improve picture quality and black levels. Would Sony push things faster? Maybe, maybe not. Matters what Sony we're talking about.

As to the question for costs, yes they are cheaper relative to LCD as size increases.
 

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
avaya said:
There is still room for significant cost reductions on PS3 hardware - Blu-ray drive costs are still the largest and should fall by 30% through this year. RSX shrink also has to be in the works.

Do you have evidence of the BD drive costs?
 

fixuis

Member
Sorry to go ofF topic but there have been rumors that panasonic acquired pioneer kuro tech and engineers so if we are to have any hope of kuro tech making a come back or a next gen kuro tech being incorporated into tvs it would be from panasonic. Last I heard was that panasonic was increasing their tv's picture quality and black levels and were getting pretty close to reproducing the 9g kuro and 9g kuro elite black levels and picture quality in their 2011 models. If they have abandoned that goal, then it's a shame and a big loss for those who want pure quality. As someone previously pointed out, Sony like pioneer is a company that has that make the best product in their dna as well. If they merged with panasonic on making plasmas and they both worked on reproducing and expanding the kuro tech, it would be the stuff that dreams were made off, not to mention progress would be made faster.
 
Panasonic has the Kuro patents and acquired some former Pioneer engineers, but so far nothing has come of it, and chances are nothing will happen next year either.

Panasonic has not approached 9G black levels yet. The VT25 equalled the 8G black levels this year, but like all Panasonic plasmas, it suffers from the 3x rising black levels, so those blacks will quickly become average within a year. Panasonic has not improved black levels on any of their other displays this year, but the G20/25 did get a stronger ambient light filter that holds contrast better under light.
 

fixuis

Member
Damn that sucks. Oh well 2012 then. I bought a brand new pioneer kuro 428xg in august. Superb picture quality. Trying to get my hands on a 5090 or a krp 500 as well. But yeah, getting back on topic, one things for sure, we can expect a pretty sleek and powerful ps4 from Sony when it launches. Hopefully they keep the cell design.

Although samsung and panasonic have taken over but Sony tv's still command a fair bit of the tv market. The whole "it's Sony, they know how to make great tv's" still holds true.
 
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