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[Lynn616]

Now that is great news. Finally some solid profits for the game division. PS4 must be cheaper to make than I thought. Great numbers.

 

[nynt9]

I think you misunderstood. The new head of the Xbox division has been pushing the message that the Xbox is a game platform first and foremost. That's why it wasn't much of a surprise when they canned the original programming and focused exclusively on games during E3.

Are you sure?
http://www.xbox.com/es-CL/Press/Corporate/phil-spencer

Spencer and team led the development of brand new entertainment offerings including a landmark partnership with the NFL and collaborating with industry luminary Steven Spielberg to bring a new Halo live action TV series to life.

While 3.5m is great, I wonder why they still bundle PS3 and ps4 numbers together.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Was there anything of interest in the earnings call, if anyone listened. The transcript isn't up yet.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

3:1 must be quite troubling. If current trends continue, how big do you guys think the gap will get?

It will get bigger and bigger and friends adopt PS4 because that's where thier gamer friends are.

 

[RamzaIsCool]

PS4 is certainly doing better than the XB1, but I wouldn't read too much into the 3:1 ratio. Microsoft overstocked store shelves last year, and stores are still burning through that initial shipment. Sold-through numbers are closer.

It's not 3:1 ratio. It's somwhere between 4:1 and 5:1 when it comes to shipment numbers between PS4 and XBO this quarter.

But you are right that you have to factor in a correction, because MS was obviously overshipping the thing at the start of the this year. It will be more clear when we get the numbers of the next 2 quarters where the console truly stands.

The PS4 is going strong it will end up between 16-20 mil shipped at the end of the year. Depends how strong q3 for them is.

 

[darkwing]

Holy crap I never would've thought 3:1. That's BIG. Not to mention from here on out the sales are going to grow for both platforms but probably PS4 more than Xbone.

August - TLoU boost
September - Destiny spike
October - shit ton of games month which means ton's of systems sold
November - Black Friday month + CoD
December - Christmas


Will PS4 be at 15 million before January? Who knows.

15 million is very very unlikely, they would have to sell 1M+ units per month until december

 

[Bgamer90]

GOTY 2013 and one of the highlights of last gen? It's definitely possible. The recent announcement of 7m sold on ps3 alone shows that this game still has some legs. It wouldn't surprise me if the ps4 version has considerable legs due to those who are switching from xbox, but still waiting to do so.

I definitely think the game will sell well but I don't see it being a huge post-game launch system seller as much as the cross-gen games coming out to the PS4 soon.

______________________________

It's as much of a system seller as MCC for Xbox One.

I don't know about this; different game genres, different amount of games/content, different time gap in between release of original version(s) and the remake, etc.

Destiny will significantly clip the wings of MCC on XB1.

I would possibly agree if both games came out during the same month but since they aren't, I don't think this will be the case. I think many will buy/have both games.

 

[Freeman]

Holy crap I never would've thought 3:1. That's BIG. Not to mention from here on out the sales are going to grow for both platforms but probably PS4 more than Xbone.

August - TLoU boost
September - Destiny spike
October - shit ton of games month which means ton's of systems sold
November - Black Friday month + CoD
December - Christmas


Will PS4 be at 15 million before January? Who knows.

Add Infamous First Light, LBP3 and Driveclub in between those things and the fact that 2015 starts with Arkham Knight, The Order, The Witcher 3, Bloodborne and there it no room for Xbox to react in a long while.

The question now is if the PS4 will be able to get anywhere close to PS2 levels of sales, otherwise we are going to see a sizable shrink in the market compared to 2 generation ago.

15m seems way low if it is at 9m+ already.

 

[Canis lupus]

15 million is very very unlikely, they would have to sell 1M+ units per month until december

Which they more than will once we're past september. 15M is actually a pessimistic outlook on sales.

 

[RexNovis]

3.5m PS3+4 shipped vs 1.1m 360/XB1 in the same quarter.

Wow yea that's not a battle it's a massacre. I did not expect a 3:1 split at all. That ratio is almost unbelievable especially so early in the console life cycle. I was expecting 2 or 2.5 at the most.

I wonder how close PS4 is to 10 million now. Has to be getting pretty close.

 

[Mario007]

Was there anything of interest in the earnings call, if anyone listened. The transcript isn't up yet.

Mostly mobile talk. I've outlined it in my previous post in this thread, but I can summarise it again if you want? The only thing gaming related is that they expect higher profit thanks to reducing costs and that they aren't revising their HW number but are revising their SW numbers upwards.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Where are they going to unload all these units? In the UK they sold just under 9m Xbox 360s, they won't get anywhere near that figure this time around. No way do they get anywhere close to 20m in Europe, 12-13m is more like it, maybe even as low as 10m if they can't get a foothold in Germany.

That's an at best scenario.

Obviously my real expectations are much lower.

All three consoles have really dampened my expectations for the generation. My initial hope was that WiiU would sell a very respectable number. That's been completely dashed by its performance culminating in me doubting it gets to 15 million units. Then my expectations changed to heavily Sony leading because of the intelligent steps they made in designing the system and the severe missteps of Microsoft. Initial launch fervor has shifted into moderate interest in one platform and relatively low interest in the other.

My hope of 50 million PS4's sold in NA and 40-45 million Ones has been tested by the performance of each. And of course WiiU. There's very little chance we do not see significant market contraction through this generation.

The best hope for stopping the bleeding is PS4 and it's selling like a 360 more than a Wii or PS2. After the initial launch. Which was lets be honest freaking amazing.

Sorry I'm ranting. My point was can't I try to maintain even the veneer of optimism before people start shooting me down?

I love ya zomgbbqftw but sometimes hope can be a beautiful thing. Not this time though. This was vapid self-indulgent nonsense.

 

[Nightengale]

Wow yea that's not a battle it's a massacre.

captamerica.gif

 

[ethomaz]

15 million is very very unlikely, they would have to sell 1M+ units per month until december

US alone sells ~3m in November/December alone.

So yes 5 million is a bad prediction.

 

[shinra-bansho]

15 million is very very unlikely, they would have to sell 1M+ units per month until december

Typically FYQ2 and FYQ3 collectively account for about 70% of the FY sales.

In FY09-FY11 the PS3 sold ~10M units in the back half of the calendar year.

 

[kinoki]

Add Infamous First Light, LBP3 and Driveclub in between those things and the fact that 2015 starts with Arkham Knight, The Order, The Witcher 3, Bloodborne and there it no room for Xbox to react in a long while.

The question now is if the PS4 will be able to get anywhere close to PS2 levels of sales, otherwise we are going to see a sizable shrink in the market compared to 2 generation ago.

15m seems way low if it is at 9m+ already.

Grand Theft Auto V is absent from both of your lists and will move a lot.

 

[PhatSaqs]

Sony is rolling full steam ahead and aint lookin back. It's gonna take something pretty significant from MS if they want to start even a slight momentum shift.

Sony deserves it tho. They havent missed much if at all in their execution.

 

[idlewild_]

15 million is very very unlikely, they would have to sell 1M+ units per month until december

Assuming he means shipments, that 15m number is a pretty low estimate. They are already > 9.4m shipped with the two biggest quarters left to go.

 

[aspiegamer]

The PS division and Sony overall BOTH turned a profit? Earth's rotation stopped confirmed.

Wii will pass it but I can't see that in 2014 anymore.

If the PS4 can outpace the Wii through 2 holiday seasons (until the end of the year) that's legitimately astonishing. I doubt even in Sony's wildest dreams they had things going that well.

Will PS4 be at 15 million before January? Who knows.

That's a safe bet. 20 is probably a bit high, though. Microsoft will desperately be hoping they reach 10.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

The PS division and Sony overall BOTH turned a profit? Earth's rotation stopped confirmed.
If the PS4 can outpace the Wii through 2 holiday seasons (until the end of the year) that's legitimately astonishing. I doubt even in Sony's wildest dreams they had things going that well.
That's a safe bet. 20 is probably a bit high, though. Microsoft will desperately be hoping they reach 10.

Desperate to reach that but failing miserably.

The Xbone hasn't even reached 5 million sales worldwide yet and with support dead in Europe sans UK, I can't see them even getting close to 10. Maybe 8.5 at best.

 

[RexNovis]

Haha! Oh my god dude this made me crack up. I'm in tears. Bless you sir. Bless you. You made my day.

 

[ethomaz]

I agree.

Xbone looks like 8.5-9.0m max.

 

[RexNovis]

captamerica.gif

I'm glad someone got it

 

[Canis lupus]

Assuming he means shipments, that 15m number is a pretty low estimate. They are already > 9.4m shipped with the two biggest quarters left to go.

Yeah as shinra pointed out, most sales come from FYQ2-Q3 I expect PS4 to clear 11M at FYQ2, 18M at the end of FYQ3. PS4 will be pretty close outselling 2:1 either console.

 

[sacrificengineer]

I'm glad someone got it

One battle doesn't win a war. But it's a start.

 

[DieH@rd]

Was there anything of interest in the earnings call, if anyone listened. The transcript isn't up yet.

- they are very happy with the rate the PS4 hardware cost has gone down, they expect larger profits
- they are aware that multiplatform games are expanding PS4 install base right now in US and EU
- they are spending money on network infrastructure to better support PS4
- Japan sales struggling because of small games offerings
- forecast of console sales in this FY remains unchanged [17M shared between PS4/PS3]

15 million is very very unlikely, they would have to sell 1M+ units per month until december

They can sell 600k per month during sumer drought, and then have 2M per month in last 4 months of the year.

15M LTD is easily achievable by Dec31, especially if they activate full-on promotion mode for Q1 2015 games [Order, Bloodbourne, Witcher and Arkham].

 

[MilesTeg]

Once PS4 gets to $299 it's going to rake. I'm thinking fall 2015. I see PS4 surpassing 100 million down the line.

Right now I'm thinking max LTD for Xbone = 50 million, depending on how long the generation lasts of course. Even that might be a bit generous. N64 numbers could end up closer to reality for Xbone tbh.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

Once PS4 gets to $299 it's going to rake. I'm thinking fall 2015. I see PS4 surpassing 100 million down the line.

Right now I'm thinking max LTD for Xbone = 50 million, depending on how long the generation lasts of course. Even that might be a bit generous. N64 numbers could end up closer to reality for Xbone tbh.

Agree, $299 is traditionally when market -leading consoles really start shifting. But I would take your LTD numbers down slightly, as I think this gen is only lasting another 4 years before something else is released that disrupts the market.

 

[vpance]

SNE in jump the creek mode, +7.5%

 

[zomgbbqftw]

SNE up by almost 8% on the outperformance. Clearly the market believes that the restructuring is showing signs of success. I remain unconvinced.

 

[Mrbob]

15 million is very very unlikely, they would have to sell 1M+ units per month until december

Ps4 will be around 11 million sold worldwide by the end of September, if not sooner. 4 million more sold between USA and Europe for October, November, and December is doable. 15 million sold by the end of the year isn't that tough an achievement.

Aquamarine hinted PS4 is around 9 million sold through by the end of June. The holiday season gets the bulk of the sales so when you break down he averages the PS4 will have a monthly average of around one million by years end.

 

[Darksol]

Over 3 to 1 just in the last quarter? Ouch.

 

[thekiddfran]

- they are very happy with the rate the PS4 hardware cost has gone down, they expect larger profits
- they are aware that multiplatform games are expanding PS4 install base right now in US and EU
- they are spending money on network infrastructure to better support PS4
- Japan sales struggling because of small games offerings
- forecast of console sales in this FY remains unchanged [17M shared between PS4/PS3]




They can sell 600k per month during sumer drought, and then have 2M per month in last 4 months of the year.

15M LTD is easily achievable by Dec31, especially if they activate full-on promotion mode for Q1 2015 games [Order, Bloodbourne, Witcher and Arkham].

Good to see they are not delusional about Japan

 

[stevil]

Nintendo (1.43 million) + MS (1.1 million) < PS4. King is back.

so Nintendo is kicking MS ass? (yes a very soft kick)

 

[ethomaz]

This slide is interesting.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

I'm on my phone. But did Sony post a similar Forex loss like Nintendo?

 

[Freeman]

forget it.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

The WiiU is outselling the Xbox One in Europe?

Dat wishful thinking.

Yeah. At least it made the choice of what console to pick up first easy.



It'll be difficult to tell for quite a while. MCC has to claw some of the gap back, but I'd argue that bloodborne will extend the gap once again.

Neither game will move the needle nearly as much as Destiny/AC Unity/Batman in the coming months.

 

[Spiegel]

Ps4 will be around 11 million sold worldwide by the end of September, if not sooner. 4 million more sold between USA and Europe for October, November, and December is doable. 15 million sold by the end of the year isn't a stretch.

Not sure what info you have which suggests they need to sell 1 million a month. Aquamarine suggested PS4 is around 9 million sold through by the end of June.

PS4 will be at ~19-20M shipped at the end of the year, most likely.

 

[Einbroch]

I'm more impressed with the handheld numbers than the console ones.

 

[Doomshroom]

Went to Gamestop here in Sweden (Capitol of the wolrd) the other day and while looking around it hit me, i never seen the covers for games like Deadrising 3, Crimson dragon and so on. So i started to look around and i could not the Xbox one section.
So they guy working there saw me and asked what i was looking for and i said Xbox one stuff. He told me its not released yet, but we sell imported ones if you want one. I said no thanks.

The 360 did good last generation but its like MS told Sony here you go you can have Scandinavia they are not important enough for us.

 

[idlewild_]

so Nintendo is kicking MS ass? (yes a very soft kick)

That Nintendo number includes 3DS, so not really.

 

[BlackBuzzard]

I'm more impressed with the handheld numbers than the console ones.

Vita-chan doesn't want to die yet. No matter how hard SCEA tries.

 

[vpance]

SNE up by almost 8% on the outperformance. Clearly the market believes that the restructuring is showing signs of success. I remain unconvinced.

The stock market is rarely rational! Just forget the fundamentals.

 

[Nikodemos]

M2 is a nice phone (bought one for my wife), but I was super confused and almost put off Xperias entirely trying to work out the differences between all their mid-range products.

I have one as well, but I dislike Sony's forced differentiation attempts, like the 540p screen holding it back so they could slot the C3 just above it.

And they should seriously think about a way of integrating former flagships into an organically evolving product tree.

 

[thehypocrite]

China will save the Xbox.

 

[SuperSonic1305]

Don't read too much into it

 

[Bgamer90]

Right now I'm thinking max LTD for Xbone = 50 million, depending on how long the generation lasts of course. Even that might be a bit generous. N64 numbers could end up closer to reality for Xbone tbh.

I'm honestly think this gen will be similar to the N64 gen in terms of that.

PS4 = PS1
Xbox One = N64
Wii U = Saturn

 

[jabberwocker]

Why the hell is vita tv not coming out till December here in the US. This is absurd. The damn thing has been out almost year now in JP.

 

[theprodigy]

I'm not sure what's worse, "Xbox One can still end up in first" or "maybe Xbox One will end up last".

Also this Wii U/Xbox One Europe narrative is one of the most bizarre things on here, extrapolating Europe sales from France is no better than extrapolating from UK.