Support NeoGAF

[Suzzopher]

They'll be runner up in another couple years easy. Then another 8 years or so to overtake Wii. Sony's 10 year plan starts now.

Love it:lol

 

[Mrbob]

PS3 isn't getting a price cut this year. The system is selling well at $299, no reason to drop. Especially with GT5 in November. Time to emulate PS2 success Sony by making a $329 GT bundle this November with the release of the game.

15 million for the next year is fairly aggressive, but they must have confidence in hitting this goal or they wouldn't have put it out in the public.

 

[RavenFox]

Second place will be important for the PS4 but not necessarily the PS3. If they can secure 2nd place this time around, it will restore some publisher confidence in the brand.




I expect a holiday deal (during black friday) where they sell the MOVE bundle for $299 or PS3 for $249.99 (120GB).

Going from E3 confidence is restored.

 

[Elios83]

Whoa, when was this bump in hard drive announced? I missed it?

A couple of weeks ago:
http://uk.ps3.ign.com/articles/110/1103966p1.html

They go on sale today in Japan (there's also a new white Slim for them).
We (US and Europe) will get them in late august. Announcement at gamescom. They will do bundles with games ( GT5, LBP2) and Playstation Move for the holyday season, there shouldn't be a real price drop this year.

 

[shinnn]

Yep. Its great to be in 1st, awful to be in last, but being in the middle is a comfortable place to be.

In the middle but losing US and UK. Not so comfortable place =p

 

[DMeisterJ]

Just like it's been hilarious pretty much up until the point they are going to actually pull into second place with all the people playing down 360 in second place any way you can think of?

Keep fighting the good fight.

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

So in one or even two of these quarters the PSP needs to sell at least 2 mln units, I guess? I guess that will be interesting to see pulled off this fall and winter.

MHP3. that oughta do it for Japan at least.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

So in one or even two of these quarters the PSP needs to sell at least 2 mln units, I guess? I guess that will be interesting to see pulled off this fall and winter.

Between MHP3, a price drop, and 15 different big name game bundles in NA/EU, they'll be close to or exceed 2M in the fall and/or winter

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

This to me sounds like there's been an upshoot in R&D costs. Perhaps for the PSP 2?




Probably not. There's obviously a cost reduction somewhere, but I haven't heard about a 32nm CELL. In my opinion, we should be seeing PS3's with 32nm CELL's by Spring 2011 or December 2010.

That said, I expect a super slim by Sept. 2011 where both the CELL and RSX is 32nm and the Power Supply brick is external.

get that shit outta here.

 

[flyinpiranha]

Second place will be important for the PS4 but not necessarily the PS3. If they can secure 2nd place this time around, it will restore some publisher confidence in the brand.

I agree with this. No matter who ends up in 3rd this generation (might be MS if the Slim/Kinect thing doesn't work out) both HD twins have secured a spot in the publishers minds. I'm not really sure if a lot of the companies that did jump ship and go multi planned it from the beginning or if it was the extremely slow start of the PS3.

 

[CozMick]

In the middle but losing US and UK. Not so comfortable place =p

Who? Sony or MS?

It was my understanding that Sony "took the lead" between the 2 companies.

 

[Baki]

get that shit outta here.

Power supply being external means a much smaller console (atleast 15% size reduction I'd say).

 

[J-Rzez]

I don't know I'm not a sales kind of gamer.

Hmm, but how are you supposed to know if you are allowed to enjoy a game or system you have then? I'm the same way actually. Some people though are nuts though. It's fun to follow sales, but some people actually put a games quality as a direct indication from it's sales.

"Oh man, can't wait for this months review of games"
"Who do you go for your reviews? IGN, GS, GI, Edge?"
"Naw, only way to go is NPD"

Good for Sony though picking up with the sales. They're going to see a pretty significant bump this holiday season as well with Gran Turismo 5.

 

[tass0]

Wow, PS3 is really close to 360.

Didn't know it was this close, thought it was a 6-7m gap.

 

[Man]

In the middle but losing US and UK. Not so comfortable place =p

Pffft. The best shooters are made in mainland Europe.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

But MS said the first to 10 million won the generation, so why are we still counting?

SEGA said the same thing



I really wish they were still.... decent.

 

[CozMick]

So it's 38 million PS3s WorldWide?

That's damn impressive

 

[spwolf]

Power supply being external means a much smaller console (atleast 15% size reduction I'd say).

and a power brick. which is stupid.

 

[Man]

Do we have estimated RROD numbers?

 

[Baki]

and a power brick. which is stupid.

The PS3 isn't supposed to be a portable device, so a brick doesn't matter.

Plus power brick = smaller PS3, with less fans. Which = lower production costs. ^_^

 

[IoCaster]

Is there a prediction thread up for when PS3 overtakes X360 WW?

What's the consensus? This year or early 2011?

Edit: Does anyone know when EA puts out their quarterly? I'm thinking sometime in August, but I'm not sure. Wondering if we'll get some fresh Mass Effect 2 numbers.

 

[Baki]

Is there a prediction thread up for when PS3 overtakes X360 WW?

What's the consensus? This year or early 2011?

March 2011. Then again, Kinect bundles are a massive wild card.

 

[Psychotext]

What's the consensus? This year or early 2011?

Unlikely to be this year due to the 360 S / 360 S Arcade. Will probably happen next year though.

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

and a power brick. which is stupid.

good man, this guy.

 

[gofreak]

What's the consensus? This year or early 2011?

I don't know if there is a consensus.

Personally I don't think this year. If relative performance kept going the way it has been the last few quarters, it would, but I think over the next quarter at least the gap will widen again.

Too much is uncertain around the new peripherals too. If you were to be optimistic about Kinect it could totally change the growth patterns here and keep Sony at bay for much longer. I dunno how anyone can be confident about any prediction regarding it one way or the other however, it just seems like a very hard thing to judge right now. Which is why I wonder, again, if MS has provided a forecast for hardware for this FY. I would be curious to see what kind of impact they expect.

 

[MassiveAttack]

Is there a prediction thread up for when PS3 overtakes X360 WW?

What's the consensus? This year or early 2011?

They'll surpass 360 WW within their fiscal year, so by March 2011.

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

I don't know if there is a consensus.

Personally I don't think this year. If relative performance kept going the way it has been the last few quarters, it would, but I think over the next quarter at least the gap will widen again.

Too much is uncertain around the new peripherals too. If you were to be optimistic about Kinect it could totally change the growth patterns here and keep Sony at bay for much longer. I dunno how anyone can be confident about any prediction regarding it one way or the other however, it just seems like a very hard thing to judge right now. Which is why I wonder, again, if MS has provided a forecast for hardware for this FY. I would be curious to see what kind of impact they expect.

like i said, they predicted 8.6 million in their FY 2009 results. or Fy 2010 results i can't remember if they are in 2011 or not...

 

[gofreak]

like i said, they predicted 8.6 million in their FY 2009 results. or Fy 2010 results i can't remember if they are in 2011 or not...

Sorry, I thought when you said that it was with reference to a prediction for last year. But they predicted 8.6m for the current FY? That seems terribly low, are you sure that's correct?

 

[IoCaster]

March 2011. Then again, Kinect bundles are a massive wild card.

Unlikely to be this year due to the 360 S / 360 S Arcade. Will probably happen next year though.

It seems like it's mostly a question of when, not if, at this point. I'm not a 'sales age' guy, but the trend seems to be pretty obvious, right?

 

[MassiveAttack]

It seems like it's mostly a question of when, not if, at this point. I'm not a 'sales age' guy, but the trend seems to be pretty obvious, right?

Japan is the X factor that will inevitably push PS3 sales past 360 WW. GT5 will push a lot of hardware in Japan this fall.

 

[Stumpokapow]

It seems like it's mostly a question of when, not if, at this point. I'm not a 'sales age' guy, but the trend seems to be pretty obvious, right?

I don't think there'll ever be an extended period from now until the end of the generation where the PS3 sells less than the 360 worldwide.

Whether or not they overtake depends on whether they continue their current momentum, slow down, or speed up, and whether the 360s/Kinect/etc cause the 360 to pick up, stay steady, or slow down.

Japan is the X factor that will inevitably push PS3 sales past 360 WW. GT5 will push a lot of hardware in Japan this fall.

Europe is the x factor that controls the PS3's position relative to the PS3. Even the best-case scenario for the PS3 in Japan results in Japan+USA being a tie between the two systems. Europe is the tie breaker.

(Note that I also don't agree with your latter optimism, but it's moot anyway)

 

[gcubed]

Japan is the X factor that will inevitably push PS3 sales past 360 WW. GT5 will push a lot of hardware in Japan this fall.

isn't EU its biggest area? (For GT5)

Europe is the x factor that controls the PS3's position relative to the PS3. Even the best-case scenario for the PS3 in Japan results in Japan+USA being a tie between the two systems. Europe is the tie breaker.

(Note that I also don't agree with your latter optimism, but it's moot anyway)

i haven't really followed the hardware sales in japan recently, so Japan cancels out US (or vice versa) as far as sales go? So basically EU is the net gain for either system, with what appears UK as the only market that either favors or is split with the ps3? It'd be nice to get real numbers out of EU instead of just guesses after an earnings call

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

Sorry, I thought when you said that it was with reference to a prediction for last year. But they predicted 8.6m for the current FY? That seems terribly low, are you sure that's correct?

Actually, that is incorrect. number I remember seeing was 10 million.

 

[Rapping Granny]

isn't EU its biggest area? (For GT5)

Yes.

 

[IoCaster]

Japan is the X factor that will inevitably push PS3 sales past 360 WW. GT5 will push a lot of hardware in Japan this fall.

Yeah, I understand that it almost seems inevitable now and that's why I was curious about a prediction thread. The 'sales-age' luminaries attempt to predict just about everything else so I figured this would be a worthy topic. Not to mention fun and entertaining for the diehard console warriors. This should be interesting.

:lol

 

[gcubed]

Yes.

it will be interesting to see next March's reports, if there isn't a large sustained bump from kinect/xbox s it could be really really close with the launch of GT5

 

[gofreak]

Europe is the x factor that controls the PS3's position relative to the PS3. Even the best-case scenario for the PS3 in Japan results in Japan+USA being a tie between the two systems. Europe is the tie breaker.

This has historically been true, and while it is still true that Europe is probably the biggest difference maker, since Slim the situation in the US has recovered sufficiently such that Japan is more a of a net contributor, if you wanna consider it in those terms. This year so far, for example, the balance with Japan+US is over 300k in PS3's favour.

Actually, that is incorrect. number I remember seeing was 10 million.

I've had a look at their Q4 transcript and powerpoint and can't find a single solitary indication of any forecast about 360 unit sales. I guess they don't necessarily give this guidance as a matter of course?

Even 10m would seem too low. They did over 10m last year, and this year they have new models, and Kinect. I presume they are expecting growth! I think, unless someone could point it out, they're keeping their forecasts close to their chests.

 

[thcsquad]

Yeah, I understand that it almost seems inevitable now and that's why I was curious about a prediction thread. The 'sales-age' luminaries attempt to predict just about everything else so I figured this would be a worthy topic. Not to mention fun and entertaining for the diehard console warriors. This should be interesting.

:lol

That does sound like a fun prediction thread. The only way to really guess is by quarter, though. Month to month is guesswork at best. So there'd be a lot of people with the exact right answer.

 

[J-Rzez]

Do we have estimated RROD numbers?

This would probably be the most interesting number we could ever get from this gen. Considering that I know so many people that went out and bought new machines after warranties, I'm sure their numbers are really inflated. It still selling more software, not a surprise, as we know MS fans buy up SW at an alarming rate, even if they let the stuff rot on shelves of their house.

If they're at 40m unit WW now, I would not be shocked to hear that they had 10m RRoD'd.

 

[Dedication Through Light]

Do we have estimated RROD numbers?

In 2008 an estimate was made at 30% just doing a general google search. The lowest estimate in 2008 was 16%.

 

[Revolver]

I'm really surprised to see that Stringer has turned things around this quickly. Especially in the TV division. I seem to recall that's been a drag on Sony's bottom line for quite some time. Anyway, good to see they appear to be on the right track. Competition benefits us all.

 

[Baki]

This has historically been true, and while it is still true that Europe is probably the biggest difference maker, since Slim the situation in the US has recovered sufficiently such that Japan is more a of a net contributor, if you wanna consider it in those terms. This year so far, for example, the balance with Japan+US is over 300k in PS3's favour.





I've had a look at their Q4 transcript and powerpoint and can't find a single solitary indication of any forecast about 360 unit sales. I guess they don't necessarily give this guidance as a matter of course?

Even 10m would seem too low. They did over 10m last year, and this year they have new models, and Kinect. I presume they are expecting growth! I think, unless someone could point it out, they're keeping their forecasts close to their chests.

Doing 10M will mean remaining flat YoY. That said, even in their best year, the system only did 11M.

The main reason why you won't see the Xbox 360 doing better than that is because it is weak in two major regions. PAL and Japan.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Yeah, Europe is the wild card. PS3 rules Japan and won't be touched like the 360 rules in the US and will never be passed up. But like the Sega Master System/NES battle a few decades ago, Europe may be different but I don't know if it will matter for games being released.

But second place is important isn't it? I think it's what gave MS the ability to secure the exclusive DLC, extra packs and exclusive bundles that they used to get for the 360, precisely because of the fact that they were ahead of the PS3 (as well as some money hats, I don't doubt that)

But if the PS3 is in second place, then it suddenly gives Sony more flex to able to secure those things from third parties, which would make the PS3 version the better choice for buying third party games, something which the 360 has enjoyed (and still does, just) for a long time. I think second place is important.

Second place has nothing to do with it. How they get those exclusive DLC, extra packs, and exclusive bundles are from money hats. Sony is in third place and has had it's share of exclusive DLC and extra packs.

The winner of second place at this point in the generation is only important to forum posters and PR bullet points. To the average gamer nothing would change.

Second place will be important for the PS4 but not necessarily the PS3. If they can secure 2nd place this time around, it will restore some publisher confidence in the brand.

If Sony released the PS4 tomorrow they would still have the backing of every single third party. Publisher support won't matter if they are in second or third, they will have it anyway. Both the PS4 and next Xbox will be on equal footing with publishers at launch.

 

[ULTROS!]

Wow, PS3 is really close to 360.

Didn't know it was this close, thought it was a 6-7m gap.

What was the PS3 and 360's gap last year? I keep hearing it was 8m or something.

 

[Psychotext]

The main reason why you won't see the Xbox 360 doing better than that is because it is weak in two major regions. PAL and Japan.

PAL region is far too big to state that conclusively. Especially as it contains a number of (large in terms of games sales) countries where the 360 is far from weak.

 

[gcubed]

PAL region is far too big to state that conclusively. Especially as it contains a number of (large in terms of games sales) countries where the 360 is far from weak.

the PAL region as a whole then. There really is no question that they are weak in the PAL region considered as a whole

 

[Majine]

Wish we could see PAL Hardware numbers more frequently.

 

[flyinpiranha]

March 2011. Then again, Kinect bundles are a massive wild card.

If there is a 3.6m difference, by March 2011 it would mean PS3 would have to sell 450,000 more than the 360 each month wouldn't it? Unless I'm really doing the math wrong (which quite possibly could be true :lol ) ... but I just don't see it doing that.

 

[SoulPlaya]

It's always these kinds of threads that bring out the fanboys in all their shameless BS. People have been predicting that the PS3 will overtake the 360 in WW sales for a LONG time now. Let's see how Kinect/ 360 S does first.

 

[mujun]

Keep fighting the good fight.

And yet you don't say the same to people like Man or Jrzez who are not far off trolling.

Good job Sony, well deserved. They really turned shit around in a pretty short span.

This is "fighting the good fight"?