Support NeoGAF

[Karma]

That's assuming both companies will continue to support their systems at the same rate until that period.

Thats why I said at current rate.

 

[spwolf]

Pushing closer to 3.6 now.

are you saying that brain_stew cant count to 3?

 

[Opiate]

At the current rate of 230,000 units per quarter the PS3 will catch the 360 in 6.18 years. So not 2010 or 2011 but 2014 which is too late.

At the rate from this quarter alone, yes. Holiday sales significantly skew this, and my previous models had factored those in.

If this holiday sees the 360 outsell the PS3 worldwide, I will alter my model -- but as it stands, the PS3 has been consistently outselling the 360 by small margins every quarter. My model is simply based on the last 15 months of history.

I'm really not sure if my predictions are very complimentary to the PS3 either, however: I know MS fans don't like my model, but I'm actually predicting the PS3 will catch the 360 5-6 years in to the generation. That will certainly be the generation's twilight years.

 

[spwolf]

this just proves that without weaker yen, there is no way we will get cheaper PS3... All Japanese companies are hurting due to strenght of Yen, which rose 40% in recent times vs USD... without lower yen, I doubt that PS3 will go cheaper than $350 in 2009...

 

[Raistlin]

Oh shit...What am I supposed to make of this???

mindblown

 

[FrankT]

At the current rate of 230,000 units per quarter the PS3 will catch the 360 in 6.18 years. So not 2010 or 2011 but 2014 which is too late.

Aye, at the beginning of this generation we had analysts saying it would take over in 07, 08, 09 and on and on with all the nice little charts. Those predictions have continued to get pushed back, and now the reality of it is that it really looks like it isn't going to happen this generation. As for this Christmas I still see it highly unlikely for them to ship more with no price cut whatsoever. System is the same price it was last October going into this holiday season. While Europe may make up for some of the difference I certainly do not see making up for Nov, Dec in NA. Japan has become of little difference as of late as well. Of course, for Sony turning a profit is their number one goal as it should be because they are headed into their third full year of loss, which is quickly approaching the 4 billion dollar mark. They certainly cannot maintain that as a sustainable business model this gen.

 

[Karma]

At the rate from this quarter alone, yes. Holiday sales significantly skew this, and my previous models had factored those in.

If this holiday sees the 360 outsell the PS3 worldwide, I will alter my model -- but as it stands, the PS3 has been consistently outselling the 360 by small margins every quarter. My model is simply based on the last 15 months of history.

I'm really not sure if my predictions are very complimentary to the PS3 either, however: I know MS fans don't like my model, but I'm actually predicting the PS3 will catch the 360 5-6 years in to the generation. That will certainly be the generation's twilight years.

Ok, using the last 15 months of history the PS3 will catch the 360 in 4.33 years or early 2013. Still not your 2010-2011 number.

 

[Opiate]

Ok, using the last 15 months of history the PS3 will catch the 360 in 4.33 years or early 2013. Still not your 2010-2011 number.

Actually, you're right, thank you. I did this math last quarter, and this is what I found:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=333085

There was one snapshot in which the PS3 would catch the 360 by the end of 2010 -- the last 9 months (now 12 months). That sample is no longer viable, as new data pushes the catch up date to an even more distant time frame.

I think 2013-2014 is more likely. Regardless, the general concept is what I wanted to highlight: the PS3 has been catching up to the 360 by small but non-trivial amounts with consistency over the last 18 months. However, I purport that the actual "catch up" date is so far in to the future that it will either be after the PS4/Xbox 720 have shipped or in the very late twilight of those system's lifespans.

As you can see by the thread I've linked, that is an answer that pleased no one.

 

[Fuzzy]

Well that is odd. That page (or its English equivalent with the same numbers) was my source, but at some point they've gone back and changed the data for FY2006. It used to be 1.66+1.91=3.57, but it's now 1.68+1.93=3.61.

Archive.org version with old numbers.

We all know of another site that changes figures without notice.

 

[J-Rzez]

The PS3 outshipped the 360 by .23 million units this quarter.

This continues to support my previous argument: the PS3 will likely catch up to the 360 in late 2010 or 2011. General trends have not changed.

What is LTD though WW? I'm curious to see if people have a reason to say it's the new GC, because it seems like it's already rather close to the GC's numbers last gen and there's lots to go yet here.

At least the close battle between MS and Sony will allow the consumer to win as they have to try harder for your bucks. Owning both systems and a solid PC you can't go wrong with for home gaming.

 

[Opiate]

What is LTD though WW? I'm curious to see if people have a reason to say it's the new GC, because it seems like it's already rather close to the GC's numbers last gen and there's lots to go yet here.

The LTD is ~16.84 million shipped. Assuming a normal Christmas of ~4 million shipped (that's likely conservative), the PS3 will either pass the Gamecube this quarter or next year. The Xbox 360 has already surpassed the Gamecube. Both systems will handily outsell the Cube.

At least the close battle between MS and Sony will allow the consumer to win as they have to try harder for your bucks. Owning both systems and a solid PC you can't go wrong with for home gaming.

Absolutely, it is great for us. It is terrible for them, but great for us. In fact, from a consumer standpoint, there is very little negative to say about such a vicious contest, at least when looking at the immediate future.

 

[J-Rzez]

The LTD is ~16.84 million shipped. Assuming a normal Christmas of ~4 million shipped (that's likely conservative), the PS3 will either pass the Gamecube this quarter or next year. The Xbox 360 has already surpassed the Gamecube. Both systems will handily outsell the Cube.

Guess I should've been clearer. I was curious the LTD for both.

 

[FrankT]

Guess I should've been clearer. I was curious the LTD for both.

X360 22.5
PS3 16.84

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

A few thousand k here and there really isn't going to do much for the PS3, especially when the 360 erases the deficits through price drops Sony can't afford with the PS3.

I fully expect the "catch up" date for the PS3 to get forever extended, at least to the point where people don't care anymore; see GameCube.

 

[J-Rzez]

X360 22.5
PS3 16.84

Thanks. Wow, a lot closer than I expected. I think MS will pull away a little more through the holiday, I think they're going to have a great turn out with the lower price on the entry system.

 

[Phife Dawg]

That is crazy. Now is the time to strike Bill Gates!!! Take PS3 out in one swift swoop!!

I know it was half in jest, but you have the board of directors at Sony who probably don't think this idea is too hot. The only option would be a hostile take-over (don't inform the board or defy the decision of the board). A hostile take-over would then provoke anti-measures by Sony. Maybe Nintendo could be Sony's White Knight in that case? :lol

That is mindboggling. I thought Toyota was the #1 car manufacturer, having surpassed GM, what's going on...

The whole automobile and automotive industry is having problems right now.

It would take a lot longer than 2 to 3 years at that rate to happen. They'll be lucky to see it happen before the next gen begins. We also know per sales that the 360 sold more in NA during the quarter and I'm pretty sure in Japan the differences over the quarter were negligible. I also highly doubt the EU made up for that much of a difference during the time frame especially when we know from ChartTrack 360 had a boost while the PS3 sales fell post price cut. Reasonably speaking, Sony could have very well pushed retail well before the holiday season actually takes off. Considering this is shipped to retail that really wouldn't have been a bad idea with how the currency rates started to fall in September. Q4 should be quite telling this year.

Not that I disagree with the general statement but Europe!=UK.