After reading, many people on different occassions make vague guesses as to when they thought the PS3 would catch the 360 (if ever), I thought I'd put together some real analysis that people could point to when such questions are asked in the future. Of course, this analysis is open to change if something drastic were to occur.
I'll make two projections here, based off of three separate points of data, so as to give a more flexible answer. The first data point is the last quarter: based off of shipments of the PS3 and Xbox 360 in the last 3 months. This data point lacks the accuracy one might get from longer term trends, but emphasizes the state of the industry right now. The third point is the last five quarters: this projection will be based off the cumulative data of the last 15 months. This data point gives a less clear picture of what's been happening in the immediate past, but it gives a better longer term projection. The second point is in between, and has a bit of the strengths and weaknesses of both the other two.
With all of that stated, here are the numbers I've collated. All of this information can be found by simply checking Sony and Microsoft's financial reports, located here and here, respectively.
Total shipments, LTD:
Playstation 3: 14.41 Million
Xbox 360: 20.3 Million
This gives a disparity of 5.89 million units.
Shipments in the last 3 months:
Xbox 360: 1.3 Million
Playstation 3: 1.56 Million
At this rate of sales, the Playstation 3 would catch the Xbox 360 in approximately five years and eight months, or in February of 2014.
Shipments in the last 9 months:
Playstation 3: 8.78
Xbox 360: 6.9
At this rate of sales, the Playstation 3 would catch the Xbox 360 in approximately 2 years and 4 months, or in November, 2010.
Shipments in the last 15 months:
Playstation 3: 10.8
Xbox 360: 9.4
At this rate of sales, the Playstation 3 would catch the Xbox 360 in approximately five years and 3 months, or in October of 2013.
Short answer:
Thus, based on hard data, I predict the Playstation 3 will catch the Xbox 360, and it will do so at some time between the end of 2010/beginning of 2011 and the end of 2013. If anyone would like to make corrections to these calculations, please do. If all of my math seems solid, I encourage anyone to link to this data whenever this topic comes up in the future, which it most assuredly will.
Edit: thanks to Jtyettis for the correction!
I'll make two projections here, based off of three separate points of data, so as to give a more flexible answer. The first data point is the last quarter: based off of shipments of the PS3 and Xbox 360 in the last 3 months. This data point lacks the accuracy one might get from longer term trends, but emphasizes the state of the industry right now. The third point is the last five quarters: this projection will be based off the cumulative data of the last 15 months. This data point gives a less clear picture of what's been happening in the immediate past, but it gives a better longer term projection. The second point is in between, and has a bit of the strengths and weaknesses of both the other two.
With all of that stated, here are the numbers I've collated. All of this information can be found by simply checking Sony and Microsoft's financial reports, located here and here, respectively.
Total shipments, LTD:
Playstation 3: 14.41 Million
Xbox 360: 20.3 Million
This gives a disparity of 5.89 million units.
Shipments in the last 3 months:
Xbox 360: 1.3 Million
Playstation 3: 1.56 Million
At this rate of sales, the Playstation 3 would catch the Xbox 360 in approximately five years and eight months, or in February of 2014.
Shipments in the last 9 months:
Playstation 3: 8.78
Xbox 360: 6.9
At this rate of sales, the Playstation 3 would catch the Xbox 360 in approximately 2 years and 4 months, or in November, 2010.
Shipments in the last 15 months:
Playstation 3: 10.8
Xbox 360: 9.4
At this rate of sales, the Playstation 3 would catch the Xbox 360 in approximately five years and 3 months, or in October of 2013.
Short answer:
Thus, based on hard data, I predict the Playstation 3 will catch the Xbox 360, and it will do so at some time between the end of 2010/beginning of 2011 and the end of 2013. If anyone would like to make corrections to these calculations, please do. If all of my math seems solid, I encourage anyone to link to this data whenever this topic comes up in the future, which it most assuredly will.
Edit: thanks to Jtyettis for the correction!
