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[FrankT]

But the financial reports do give worldwide shipment info, and all of the financial reports are available freely at the links I provided. Which gets to my original point: I chose not to go further back than 15 months for the following reasons:

1) The PS3 launched in Europe late. This skews the data.
2) The effects of the 360 channel stuffing would be very conspicuous. While shipment information is never completely reliable in any given quarter (although it presumably is over the long haul), it was particularly misleading in the winter of 2006 and the early months of 07, when oversupply negated the need to ship any more 360s.
3) The very, very early parts of the generation had literally 0 PS3s selling, when the PS3 was not only unavailable in Europe, but everywhere. That data is also unhelpful.

It certainly isn't a perfect picture, but I tried to take as many reasonable data points as I could. I think shipment information is very good in the long run; it may be aberrant for a quarter or two, but the data is much less prone to channel stuffing errors over the course of years.

Your whole analysis is BS because these numbers are made up out of thin air;

Total shipments, LTD:

Playstation 3: 14.74 Million
Xbox 360: 20.35 Million

This gives a disparity of 5.61 million units.

Incorrect information.

Actual known shipment figures June 30 2008;

360 20.3 million
PS3 14.41 million

Difference 5.89 million

There are no known shipment figures past this date.

Correct data points.

What is more, somehow you magically have the PS3 shipping 330k since then while the 360 has only shipped 50k, right. MS has only shipped 50k into the WW channel in two months with the introduction of the 60GB during this time frame, uh huh.

This is not an analysis.

 

[schuelma]

and including the Wii creates an onerous situation because the significantly different consumer base will reflect a vastly different future buying pattern that is (heretofore) impossible to predict.

still...really?

 

[PantherLotus]

^ agreed. "really?"

I want every piece of data Opiate, not just that which serves the hypothesis. Looking at these latest numbers, you could easily be right. I'd like to combine month to month with a shipped LTD for comparison/extrapolation purposes to prove it.

 

[AmMortal]

Sony wanted Blu-Ray to succeed. It did.

They used the Playstation brand to usher Blu-ray in.


In their way of thinking, they won.

MS also won, because among their objectves was to take away, some market share, from Sony.

The only ones that lost were the gamers.

But how will next gen fair?

By then, Sony will have the ability to make the PS4 cheap, VERY cheap, as the format is already established and MS will inevitably have to use Blu-Ray for it's games. The focus of Sony will be on the Playstation brand again, and we'll probably see more games then this gen. Think of it, as a passing between to hills, you'll go down before you can go up again.

 

[Opiate]

Your whole analysis is BS because these numbers are made up out of thin air;


Correct data points.

You are correct, those are the correct data points, and thank you. I'm not sure why you call my analysis "BS," however, as I'm .05 Million off on my 360 data, and the 300k of PS3 data came from transposition of two units from Q3 2007. I specifically asked for assistance to make sure I'd done my math correctly: you could have just given a helpful hand, as I specifically requested, rather than insult me.

 

[FrankT]

You are correct, those are the correct data points, and thank you. I'm not sure why you call my analysis "BS," however, as I'm .05 Million off on my 360 data, and the 300k of PS3 data came from transposition of two units from Q3 2007. I specifically asked for assistance to make sure I'd done my math correctly: you could have just given a helpful hand, as I specifically requested, rather than insult me.

Stated multiple times where did you even pull those numbers. If you were guesstimating shipments since then that was my problem with your whole "analysis".

 

[Mar]

Geez, I really seem to have caused a ruckus, and I can assure people it was not intentional. I still can't quite tell which "side" I'm supposed to be playing for here.

It's GAF dude. Everyone's scared to start a thread, and at the same time anxious to lay into anyone who does start a thread. The first page is usually people calling the OP an idiot, by second page the defenders come in. By the third page a sort of neutral ground is agreed upon and some, just some, of a normal discussion can get through.

 

[Opiate]

^ agreed. "really?"

I want every piece of data Opiate, not just that which serves the hypothesis. Looking at these latest numbers, you could easily be right. I'd like to combine month to month with a shipped LTD for comparison/extrapolation purposes to prove it.

Ugh, I was going to go to sleep!

There are two reasons not to include the Wii. First, and most obviously, the data would tell us this: "Nothing will ever pass the Wii." This particular thread is about streams crossing, and unless there is a dramatic shift some time in the future, there will be no crossing of streams with the Wii.

Second, this post was, as I stated right off the bat, a post to help remove the vague responses I see frequently when discussing the PS3/360 stream crossing. Some people will insist that it will happen soon, perhaps as early as this Christmas; others think it will never happen or could take a decade or more. But people rarely provide data to back up these assertions; they just make nebulous claims about what they think is happening. This thread is intended to provide hard data for the next time that discussion arises. Other threads could make a larger point, and I think I will make such a thread tomorrow or this weekend.

 

[PantherLotus]

Stated multiple times where did you even pull those numbers. If you were guesstimating shipments since then that was my problem with your whole "analysis".

Please post the "correct" data points that you have. I'm looking for shipped data since 360 launch.

 

[Neo C.]

Total shipments, LTD:

Playstation 3: 14.74 Million
Xbox 360: 20.35 Million

This gives a disparity of 5.61 million units.

Shipments in the last 3 months:

Xbox 360: 1.3 Million
Playstation 3: 1.56 Million

At this rate of sales, the Playstation 3 would catch the Xbox 360 in approximately five years and five months, or in November of 2013.

Shipments in the last 9 months:

Playstation 3: 8.78
Xbox 360: 6.9

At this rate of sales, the Playstation 3 would catch the Xbox 360 in approximately 2 years and 3 months, or in October, 2010.

Shipments in the last 15 months:

Playstation 3: 10.8
Xbox 360: 9.4

At this rate of sales, the Playstation 3 would catch the Xbox 360 in approximately five years, or in July of 2013.

The direction you take is wrong. Shipments, broken in years, look more like a bell curve or Gaussian distribution. Therefore one of the first questions should be: When does the shipment peak? Normally, it should be the third year, though when the cycle of the console is short, the shipment could already reach the peak in the second year. Which means: If we assume, that the peak of both consoles is on their third year, we should see the PS3 catching up fast in the next year. But if we assume that the PS3 has the peak on same time as the 360, the PS3 will have a very long time to catch up.

 

[Opiate]

Stated multiple times where did you even pull those numbers. If you were guesstimating shipments since then that was my problem with your whole "analysis".

I linked directly to their quarterly financial statements. Microsoft's often need to be culled from the paragraphs (As in, not listed as a standalone statistic), but Sony's are right there, in every single quarterly report.

Again, there's no need to be rude. I specifically requested help and double checking. We're all in this together, this analyzing-the-industry thing, right?




....Right?

 

[PantherLotus]

 

[Opiate]

Please post the "correct" data points that you have. I'm looking for shipped data since 360 launch.

I've got them. Here you go. All shipments in millions, per quarter:

Xbox 360:

Sep 05: 0.0
Dec 05: 1.5
Mar 06: 1.7
Jun 06: 1.8
Sep 06: 1.0
Dec 06: 4.4
Mar 07: 0.5
Jun 07: 0.7
Sep 07: 1.8
Dec 07: 4.3
Mar 08: 1.3
Jun 08: 1.3

Playstation 3:

Sep 05: 0.00
Dec 05: 0.00
Mar 06: 0.00
Jun 06: 0.00
Sep 06: 0.00
Dec 06: 1.68
Mar 07: 1.93
Jun 07: 0.71
Sep 07: 1.31
Dec 07: 4.90
Mar 08: 2.32
Jun 08: 1.56

Wii:

Sep 05: 0.00
Dec 05: 0.00
Mar 06: 0.00
Jun 06: 0.00
Sep 06: 0.00
Dec 06: 3.19
Mar 07: 2.65
Jun 07: 3.43
Sep 07: 3.90
Dec 07: 6.96
Mar 08: 4.32
Jun 08: 5.17

LTD totals:

Xbox 360: 20.3
Playstation 3: 14.41
Wii: 29.62

I am confident that those shipment totals, per quarter, are correct; in most cases, I've taken them directly from the FRs and simply pasted them here. As to the addition for LTD? Again, please check my math.

 

[liuelson]

Using Opiate's quarterly shipped data:

Aggregating quarters into years so that the most recent full year is compared (sept-jun):

Aggregating quarters into years so that the X360 2nd full year is compared with PS3 first full year (dec-sept):

Google doc:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pXmD-p5GmIuBkZzAk0TkScA

 

[PantherLotus]

360's Lead (in millions)
Sep-05 0.00
Dec-05 1.50
Mar-06 3.20
Jun-06 5.00
Sep-06 6.00
Dec-06 8.72
Mar-07 7.29
Jun-07 7.28
Sep-07 7.77
Dec-07 7.17
Mar-08 6.15
Jun-08 5.89

The PS3 has gained over a million units in less than a year, and has slashed the 360 lead by almost 3 million units since launch (from 9 million to 6 million). Averaging about 1.5 million units per year gain on the 360. Conclusion? The PS3 will catch up or pass the 360 between 4 and 6 years.

2012-2014, all things staying the same. (they won't)

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Why do people attempt to model sales linearly? Video game hardware sales are more complex, and include many unknown future factors.

Modeling the unknown is difficult to do. The simplest way may not be the most accurate, but it's less prone to guesswork.

 

[Vormund]

2012-2014, all things staying the same. (they won't)

I would sure hope there would be a new xbox model by then...it did come out in late 2005 after all.

 

[fanboi]

Sony wanted Blu-Ray to succeed. It did.

They used the Playstation brand to usher Blu-ray in.


In their way of thinking, they won.

MS also won, because among their objectves was to take away, some market share, from Sony.

The only ones that lost were the gamers.

But how will next gen fair?

By then, Sony will have the ability to make the PS4 cheap, VERY cheap, as the format is already established and MS will inevitably have to use Blu-Ray for it's games. The focus of Sony will be on the Playstation brand again, and we'll probably see more games then this gen. Think of it, as a passing between to hills, you'll go down before you can go up again.

This is the truth!

 

[Vaandaviii]

Not that ******** is actually a reliable source for information, but more or less it should be accurate.

In my opinion X360 and PS3 are almost at the same level, with PS3 improving a little and X360 being stable.

At this rate no one can predict if PS3 will surpass X360, it may happen or not, depending on exclusives, announcements, hardware revisions, price cuts... It's too early to play nostradamus here.

True is that X360 is cheaper, and PS3 has more margin to reduce its price, and that could help, but again, no one knows.

 

[domokunrox]

:lol @ all the tards having over a hissy fit over the PS3 passing the 360 2 years from now.

Thanks for the math, Opiate.

 

[vanguardian1]

Vaandaviii, for the sake of your account you should take those down. It doesn't matter if they are correct here or not, it's a bannable offense IIRC.

 

[DCharlie]

i think it speaks volumes about the new console market that speculation regarding PS3 possibly drawing level in two years is almost cause for a street party!

MS have gone from :
4DO what is this lol?
to
Halo box
to
underpowered next gen machine
to
RROD failure lol
to
Drakestation catch you in two years! RAWR!

Impressive gains - will be interesting to see what both MS and Sony have learnt from this round when the next gen hits.

 

[travisbickle]

I'd think you'd have to show data from the seperate continents, buying trends and stuff; there'll be a maximum of potential buyers for the products, and you'd need to see who has reached it and where eg. the Japanese haven't bought the PS3 yet, and pretty much all the sales for 360 are in America, that's sort of opposite ends of the scale.

As an observer you'd say the PS3 has more potential sales - in basic terms because it's sold less and more complicated that it has a large fanbase of PS2 owners and the bluray format gives it value.


Who knows? the wii could stop selling tomorrow!

 

[Kilrogg]

Based on this thread, I strongly question a good number of GAF members' ability to welcome a simple, straightforward number analysis without suspecting the OP of bias.

Seriously, to doubt Opiate of all people, probably the most moderate people on this forum, and one of the most unbiased members... It's ridiculous.

Opiate, don't worry. Just ignore them. Oh, and thank you for the info. Make no mistake: your input is always welcome.

The sad thing is that I know a place where worse situations occur on a regular basis.

 

[Arde5643]

Based on this thread, I strongly question a good number of GAF members' ability to welcome a simple, straightforward number analysis without suspecting the OP of bias.

Seriously, to doubt Opiate of all people, probably the most moderate people on this forum, and one of the most unbiased members... It's ridiculous.

Opiate, don't worry. Just ignore them. Oh, and thank you for the info. Make no mistake: your input is always welcome.

The sad thing is that I know a place where worse situations occur on a regular basis.

Opiate's attempt did create that analysis Panther put in the end though, so it's all good.

After all, you gotta start from somewhere, right?

 

[Kilrogg]

Opiate's attempt did create that analysis Panther put in the end though, so it's all good.

After all, you gotta start from somewhere, right?

Well, yes, but sometimes, you get the feeling that if you make a mistake, it's intentional, because you're biased. Some people here seem unable to question a given analysis without calling BS or being aggressive towards the OP.

Bah, don't worry, I'm out of this thread. Just wanted to cheer Opiate up just in case . He's a fine member, it'd be a shame if he grew tired of GAF and left.

 

[Dead Man]

First of all, thanks to the OP for the analysis.

Second, to the dicks. So you are unhappy that the analysis may not be accurate as it does not take possible future events into consideration, but then you post crazyanalyst.jpg as if there is some crazy extrapolation of future events from a limited data set.

 

[commariodore64]

First of all, thanks to the OP for the analysis.

Second, to the dicks. So you are unhappy that the analysis may not be accurate as it does not take possible future events into consideration, but then you post crazyanalyst.jpg as if there is some crazy extrapolation of future events from a limited data set.

What analysis? Sales trends are just that 'trends' - who knows what the long haul has in store with upcoming price cuts and exclusives... pointless conjecture.
-With Love,
Dick #1265

 

[Dead Man]

What analysis? Sales trends are just that 'trends' - who knows what the long haul has in store with upcoming price cuts and exclusives... pointless conjecture.
-With Love,
Dick #1265

Well shit then, why hang the dick if it is just some maths? Pick your ground man. Is it bad because it may not be a perfect predictor? Pointless conjecture? Why is it pointless? And who cares if it is? Did it get into your panties when you weren't looking?

 

[Rapping Granny]

Just came into this thread...WHOAH.

This looks like some type of board meeting presentation. jesus fuck the graphs.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Not that ******** is actually a reliable source for information, but more or less it should be accurate.

No, it is not accurate, and it's banned here so please do not repost graphs from there.

 

[NarcissisticJay]

I'll preface this by saying that I'm a PSWii60 owner, and I cherise both my 360 and PS3.

The one thing I dont get, will never understand with the whole console warz thing..

Why doesnt anyone ever add in the fact that the 360 greatly outsells the PS3 in software?

Why doesnt anyone ever add in the fact that MS has a LIVE base of 10M+ @ $60 a year?

It will take much much more than the PS3 surpassing the 360 in hardware sales for the PS3 to "overcome" the 360 for this generation.

 

[3rdamention]

Could you please put this in a cool PowerPoint/Excel chart? I cannot comprehend PS3 news without cool PowerPoints.

 

[NarcissisticJay]

Could you please put this in a cool PowerPoint/Excel chart? I cannot comprehend PS3 news without cool PowerPoints.

LBP show or bust!

 

[Raist]

That's one of a hell thread backfire. Completely not deserved.

Anyway. Yeah, I think we won't see the PS3 catch the 360 until 2010, at the earliest.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I'll preface this by saying that I'm a PSWii60 owner, and I cherise both my 360 and PS3.

The one thing I dont get, will never understand with the whole console warz thing..

Why doesnt anyone ever add in the fact that the 360 greatly outsells the PS3 in software?

Why doesnt anyone ever add in the fact that MS has a LIVE base of 10M+ @ $60 a year?

It will take much much more than the PS3 surpassing the 360 in hardware sales for the PS3 to "overcome" the 360 for this generation.

Because it's much more easy and objective to measure something simple like "hardware install base" than some sort of... "essence of victory".

 

[NarcissisticJay]

Because it's much more easy and objective to measure something simple like "hardware install base" than some sort of... "essence of victory".

True, but it's also much more inaccurate.

 

[Kilrogg]

Because it's much more easy and objective to measure something simple like "hardware install base" than some sort of... "essence of victory".

That, and hardware numbers, coupled with an increasing attach-rate (I don't think the PS3's attach-rate is decreasing, now is it?) are the best proof that one system is more valued than another and is still played. At the end of the day, when we talk about the previous gens, we only talk about hardware sales to determine the leader, so why should it be any different now?

Also, NarcissisticJay, I'd expect you to be similarly, if not more baffled at how some tend to completely ignore the Wii, but we're going off-topic here. Not to say Opiate's post was an attempt to take the Wii out of the picture though.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

True, but it's also much more inaccurate.

It's accurate--at looking at hardware base. But of course there are many different things one could measure.

 

[borghe]

PS3 will continue to catch up to 360: Fact
PS3 will outsell 360 this holiday: Likely
PS3 will catch up to and/or surpass 360 at some point: Possible
Likelihood of that happening: Unknown
360 will in anyway suffer or lose support as a result: False

What we basically are down to at this point is a two console generation. HD vs. Wii. More developers will continue to shift to PS3 IN TANDEM with 360 for most projects, and that will continue for the rest of the generation.

About the only suckers this generation are those who bought both HD systems as the only value there is in first a second party titles. Had I known this 3 years ago when I bought my 360, I would have passed and waited for PS3 (blu-ray winning being the deciding factor).

Oh well, at least I can play Gears and Fable 2 this fall.

 

[liuelson]

With the usual caveats about linear regression, taking quarterly sales data for X360 and PS3 and seeing "when the streams cross" - sometime between the 16th and 17th quarter for X360 (between Sep and Dec 2009).

Google doc

 

[Cheech]

PS3 will continue to catch up to 360: Fact
PS3 will outsell 360 this holiday: Likely

The 360 will have a SKU that is half the price of the cheapest PS3. I think you're in for a shock.

 

[genjiZERO]

people are such twats in this thread. Thanks for the analysis Opiate.

 

[Zombie James]

The 360 will have a SKU that is half the price of the cheapest PS3. I think you're in for a shock.

The 360's had a SKU half the price of the PS3 since it launched ($299 Core vs. $599). In fact, the 360's had a pretty much constant $200 price advantage over the PS3 for the entire generation, but it's still losing ground.

 

[Beer Monkey]

I also think that 360 will outsell PS3 in North America in the November/December NPD unless PS3 has a surprise price cut.

Go ahead, bookmark this post.

 

[NarcissisticJay]

Also, NarcissisticJay, I'd expect you to be similarly, if not more baffled at how some tend to completely ignore the Wii, but we're going off-topic here. Not to say Opiate's post was an attempt to take the Wii out of the picture though.

Kilrogg, you are correct but I was trying to stay on topic with the OP.

The Wii is ... well its the Wii, its unprecedented. While you must commend Nintendo on their innovative approach and execution, I think its also fair for the true 'gamers' to make the comparisons just between the PS3 and 360 as its where 95% of the great games are.

 

[Vinnk]

The surprising thing in this thread is that people believe that Microsoft won't have a new console by 2013. The 360 will be 8 years old by then.

PS3 will probably pass the 360, but by that time MS might have moved on.

 

[ScrabbleBanshee]

If the future were the present, then maybe you'd be right about your timelines.

 

[Dark Octave]

:lol Pretty much.

 

[Souldriver]

Now that VGChatrzzzz has been used as a source, there's no reason to leave this thread open. It has delivered everything it could've.



(I don't think Opiate has an agenda like most think in this thread. He just wanted to start a discussion but it went to shit in the second post)