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[Haunted]

While done with an admirable goal in mind (just concentrating on the raw numbers and straight extrapolation), it simply doesn't work that way. There'll always be bigger bumps and smaller bumps on the road, maybe a breakout hit etc. etc.


So yeah, this does give a very rough ballpark of when it's going to happen, but not much more.


Don't really understand all the hate OP's been getting, thanks for the effort.


edit: Yeah, I love that retarded analyst pic as much as anyone else here, but it's really not appropriate in this case.

 

[Metaphoreus]

Why do people attempt to model sales linearly? Video game hardware sales are more complex, and include many unknown future factors.

It's a simplified way to model sales, sure, but it's a good place to start. "Other things being equal" is frequently used by economists and others to model a system even as complex as entire economies, and while it isn't perfect, it is something. What Opiate has provided is a metric against which future developments can be measured; whether or not the trajectories follow these predictions is irrelevant.

 

[TunaLover]

ps3 will catch 360 eventually though

 

[justchris]

I think what people are missing here is that he gave a range of 2.5 years for this crossover to happen in. That could potentially put us at the end of the generation. Sure, it's a purely linear comparison based on limited data, but I think the difference in range for the lowend and highend predicitions are probably the most telling point here.

The great thing about predictions like these is you can update them every 3 months and maybe get a better idea of where things are going. You don't have to make a prediction and stick to it no matter what comes like some analysts do. You can update a prediction with new information when it's available. That's the way you're supposed to do it, you know.

 

[Narcosis]

This linear method of looking at things is fine as a predictive device, I dunno why some people's panties got in a twist over it. I personally am interested to see what effect the 360's impending price drop has on things in the US, as I am a firm believer in price being the biggest stopping point for people buying into HD gaming. I'm pretty confident in my own out-of-my-ass guess that the final worldwide units sales will be very, very close. If I were placing a money bet I'd probably say PS3 will slightly sell more when this gen's final numbers are tallied.

 

[FrankT]

Opiate, don't let them get to you. There's nothing wrong with your post. All the guys posting or laughing at the silly crayon chart are...well, let's just say they have something in common with the guy in the chart. You don't. I don't see how someone could look at your post and see that chart.

Come on, people. "Current trends continue" is the most common and most effective predictive method. There's no money praise in it, but it works. We've all seen how poor it is for the videogame market when a generation change happens, but for the rest of the gen, it works perfectly well.

Well you could always start with the numbers as the shipment figures are dead wrong. Not really any kind of analysis when your numbers are completely made up out of thin air.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Crazy people.

I can see the HD generation working out in two ways.

Option 1: The $200 dollar price of the 360 Arcade causes sales to skyrocket to Wii levels for a while, and find sustained sales at a higher level then previously. Subsequent price drops sustain sales. The PS3 very nearly catches up to the 360. It gets really close, but never quite makes it. Squeaker!

Option 2: The $200 price doesn't mean as much as everyone is lead to believe, and PS3 sales continue on their upward climb. The PS3 catches up in late 2010 and never looks back... for the remaining year or two left. Hollow Victory!

 

[SIP YEK NOD]

Come on, people. "Current trends continue" is the most common and most effective predictive method. There's no money praise in it, but it works. We've all seen how poor it is for the videogame market when a generation change happens, but for the rest of the gen, it works perfectly well.

It is the most effective predictive method when the trends are expected to continue. Using the last 3 months as a point of data for a prediction of the future will create an incredibly inaccurate image of the industry.

In this industry the sales come in cycles, with the latter half of the year being quite heavy, and the mid summer months being the lightest. If you don't take whole years into account it will create an inaccurate outlook.

Also in this industry, the lions share of the sales come at a "mass market price point" which these two consoles haven't even touched yet. the 360 is barely under the original Xbox's launch price. a 5 million unit gap looks large when its 50% of a units yearly sales, but when its under 25% of a systems yearly sales, we could see 2-3 million unit swings either way.

There is a reason companies don't pay people to look at current graphs, then just extend the current line. Thats because a 3 year old could do it. that doesn't make it an analysis. that barely qualifies it as a guess.

There isn't a single person who accurately predicted we would be where we are at this point in the generation, and there isn't a single person now who can predict where it will be in 5 years. there are too many factors to take into account, and it ultimately becomes an opinion on how heavy to weigh said factors.

 

[D.Lo]

There's also the problem of sales slowing (or increasing).

IMO it's a possible scenario that PS3 and 360 sales will slow down over the next couple of years. It will take too long for them to get to decent prices and/or have more general market games, in the meantime the Wii will continue to sell multiple times either, more and more devs will move to Wii, and by the time either has a good SKU at $200 with a good varety of game types that appeal all gamers (including casual, female, kids etc) the Wii will be so dominant it won't even matter. Current PS360 owners will continue to buy racing/shooting games just as GCN owners kept buying first party hits, so it will remain a decent market, but all growth will be with the Wii. In this scenario it will take longer for PS3 to catch the 360, as even if it continues selling more the smaller absolute numbers will mean smaller 'winning' margins.

On the other hand, sales of both could pick up with price drops, which if current ratios remain will mean the PS3 will catch up sooner.

 

[MorisUkunRasik]

Does this not matter to anyone else?

 

[SuperBonk]

Who gives a shit? This generation is so different then all the others that nothing like that matters. Both consoles will continue to have the same support trough out the generation.

This.

Battle for 2nd place doesn't matter because:

A) The difference in sales between them is going to be very small.
B) We already know all three are making money on current consoles and will release another console.

Oh, and the same amount of support thing the guy I quoted said.

 

[GameGamer]

Won't the xbox 720 be on the shelves by then?

 

[D.Lo]

B) We already know all three are making money on current consoles and will release another console

While this is probably more true then it's been every other gen, every gen ever has had a player drop out (Sega, NEC, Panasonic/3D0, Atari). While Sony and MS are making money right now (even that's debateable as Sony made just 81mil even with profitable PS2 and PSP and MS made small profits by writing off repair expenses eariler), neither will make return on investment this generation.

 

[Nafai1123]

Nice analysis Opiate.

To all the haters out there, the OP explicitly stated that if you think you can do a better job, go for it! Let's get a serious discussion going on instead of trying to discredit him because your panties are in a bunch.

 

[Zophar]

It really doesn't matter much one way or another. There's only a gap of around 5 million units worldwide, as the numbers get bigger that gap means less and less of an impact. If the 360 sells 30 million units in its lifetime and the PS3 only sells 27 million all said and done, the difference is still completely inconsequential.

I know I'm lowballing it but the difference becomes even more meaningless once they're passing 40, 50, 60 million units.

 

[neight]

It really doesn't matter much one way or another. There's only a gap of around 5 million units worldwide, as the numbers get bigger that gap means less and less of an impact. If the 360 sells 30 million units in its lifetime and the PS3 only sells 27 million all said and done, the difference is still completely inconsequential.

I know I'm lowballing it but the difference becomes even more meaningless once they're passing 40, 50, 60 million units.

wow good point.

 

[Darkpen]

Opinions are like assholes.

Everybody's got one, and they all stink.

yours is no exception.

your post is uncalled for.

The OP is just making a projection for what could potentially happen. Jeez.

 

[KernelPanic]

I don't see how PS3 can catch up. 360 will always be cheaper. PS3 is an awesome console but it's $399.

But they will stay in the game.

 

[Darkpen]

I don't see how PS3 can catch up. 360 will always be cheaper. PS3 is an awesome console but it's $399.

But they will stay in the game.

considering how poorly the saturn did in the US, and how gamecube did in general, I'd say otherwise.

 

[HallucinatingElvis]

jesus christ, that thing makes me chuckle EVERY FUCKING TIME:lol

 

[JRW]

Good thing I own all 3 current consoles, I just skim through threads like these.

 

[KernelPanic]

considering how poorly the saturn did in the US, and how gamecube did in general, I'd say otherwise.

Yes you're right.

I don't know anything about the Saturn's sales but I think the PS2 vs. GC scenario mirrors the Wii vs PS3/360 situation this gen. If you're getting drastically outsold by a competitor, price drops will not help much(if at all). A $199 360 will not touch the Wii in sales. People are paying PS3 prices for Wii's on ebay already. People want the Wii because it's a Wii not because it's cheap.

The 360 and PS3 are largely the same console. Due to MP titles, most of their game libraries will be the same. Since the 360 will always be cheaper I'd have to give it the edge.

But Sony has a great selection of titles as well not to mention Blu-Ray which will ensure good sales as well but in the end I think lower price will win over great value. I think the sales rankings this Xmas will be the same as last year.

Sony needs to drop some megatons to win. So far they're only tossing hand grenades.

 

[Darkpen]

Yes you're right.

I don't know anything about the Saturn's sales but I think the PS2 vs. GC scenario mirrors the Wii vs PS3/360 situation this gen. If you're getting drastically outsold by a competitor, price drops will not help much(if at all). A $199 360 will not touch the Wii in sales. People are paying PS3 prices for Wii's on ebay already. People want the Wii because it's a Wii not because it's cheap.

The 360 and PS3 are largely the same console. Due to MP titles, most of their game libraries will be the same. Since the 360 will always be cheaper I'd have to give it the edge.

But Sony has a great selection of titles as well not to mention Blu-Ray which will ensure good sales as well but in the end I think lower price will win over great value. I think the sales rankings this Xmas will be the same as last year.

Sony needs to drop some megatons to win. So far they're only tossing hand grenades.

On the other hand, the PS3 is selling steadily. Whether that's because of blu-ray, or PS3 exclusives, or as a media hub, who knows why, but price doesn't appear to be too large of an issue. For college students and highschoolers who have to buy their own stuff, perhaps, but it doesn't really seem to be that much of an issue for everyone else. Ultimately, all 3 systems have a great library of games, and that's what's really driving the sales. After the initial launch/holiday push, PS3 was pretty much dead for the longest time, but thanks to a recent boon of games, which isn't too different from the PSP situation, the system is now thriving, and then some.

When LBP and Home arrives, I think we'll see a larger mindshare for Sony's platform over Microsoft's, unless MS does something drastic. The 360, while powerful, has a stigma that looms over the system's quality, which is info that game retail associates are happy to share.

The games might drive the system, but its the marketing that attracts newcomers, and the PR keeps the boat afloat.

But more importantly, the Sony brand is strong; it killed the Dreamcast, and its games aren't like any other.

Microsoft would've killed the PS3 if RROD wasn't such a problem.

 

[speedpop]

Too many arseholes in this thread. Take your anonymous shit-worth opinions elsewhere.

 

[BishopLamont]

On the other hand, the PS3 is selling steadily. Whether that's because of blu-ray, or PS3 exclusives, or as a media hub, who knows why, but price doesn't appear to be too large of an issue. For college students and highschoolers who have to buy their own stuff, perhaps, but it doesn't really seem to be that much of an issue for everyone else. Ultimately, all 3 systems have a great library of games, and that's what's really driving the sales. After the initial launch/holiday push, PS3 was pretty much dead for the longest time, but thanks to a recent boon of games, which isn't too different from the PSP situation, the system is now thriving, and then some.

When LBP and Home arrives, I think we'll see a larger mindshare for Sony's platform over Microsoft's, unless MS does something drastic. The 360, while powerful, has a stigma that looms over the system's quality, which is info that game retail associates are happy to share.

The games might drive the system, but its the marketing that attracts newcomers, and the PR keeps the boat afloat.

But more importantly, the Sony brand is strong; it killed the Dreamcast, and its games aren't like any other.

Microsoft would've killed the PS3 if RROD wasn't such a problem.

Yeah alot of people really downplay the RROD problem, MS could have stopped PS3 in it's track if it wasn't for the RROD problem. At least the problem is gone could now, but PS3 has already come into it's own.

 

[CitizenCope]

The issue is not the PS3 itself. We want to work 2 jobs to get a PS3 here in the US but finding one job is hard enough right now.

 

[duk]

The issue is not the PS3 itself. We want to work 2 jobs to get a PS3 here in the US but finding one job is hard enough right now.

if u like ps3, vote democrat! zing!

 

[soldat7]

When will the PS3 stomp the 360 bloody into the ground!?! Let me hear a 'boo-yah'!

*looks around for some high-fives*

Spoiler

Never people, just never. Both consoles should thrive in the long run.

 

[jay]

I like this strategy that a lot of you are taking:

The past is the WORST way to predict the future.
The best way is to make things up based on personal desires.
Or declare "No one can know the future!...wait for game x, price drop y, revision z, then things will turn around for my system..."

 

[PantherLotus]

I don't believe this is a good analysis by my friend Opiate.

First of all, we're talking about shipped data (which is fine) over the past 15 months. Is this data in just the US or WW? I saw the link but the burden of proof is on the analyst. Why 3/9/15? Why not since the generation has began?

Second, we have three sets of data that Opiate has chosen to observe, and for an unknown reason the middle one (with the highest rate of gain) is chosen. Why was this chosen? Why isn't this data plotted visually? I can imagine a nice chart from this that could potentially show exactly the conclusion that Opiate has made, but why is this avoided?

Third, where is the analysis? The OP is this: intro, data, conclusion. Missing the most important part, the careful and considerate point-by-point connecting of the dots for the intended audience so that conclusion hits home.

Lastly, why the conclusion of 2010-2011? The data here shows "sometime in 5 years if it continues at this rate." That would be 2013. This is not the way that metric was intended to be used. Rather, it is used (successfully by JoshuaJSlone) to demonstrate the sales-time-distance that market leaders have over their competition, not as a means of predicting/showing when a particular console will catch up with the one in front of it.



This analysis has potential but we need to start from the beginning.

 

[KGKK]

As long as great games are coming out which this fall they are, I don't care.

 

[PantherLotus]

As long as great games are coming out which this fall they are, I don't care.

If you don't care why are you in a sales-age thread?

 

[jman2050]

As PantherLotus just demonstrated, analysis is only worthwhile when it's done properly. Therefore, the OP's analysis is not worthwhile.

 

[PantherLotus]

This would be the appropriate chart to analyze or make conclusions from:


(Click for full set of charts from LC)


Unfortunately, looking at this visually one can see why the OP's conclusion isn't supported by data. The best thing Opiate could do would be to extrapolate this year's PS3 monthly sales rate compared to 360s, where it does look like Sony has gained considerable ground.

Notably, it actually looks like the PS3 line mirrors the 360 line, only one year later.

Conclusion: the PS3 may someday catch up with the 360 in the US, but not according to the data we currently have. If we want to make further projections, it would require a more in-depth analysis of the market, hardware longevity, as well as the impact of upcoming games. That being said, I would acknowledge the 360 appears to be currently growing the slowest of the three.

I would also point out that any "HD Analysis" isn't very fruitful without at least mentioning the Wii.

 

[AkuMifune]

That is heavily flawed as well.

Limiting the market to only the US gives a significant advantage to the 360 in its head-to-head analysis vs the PS3, and including the Wii creates an onerous situation because the significantly different consumer base will reflect a vastly different future buying pattern that is (heretofore) impossible to predict.

 

[Beer Monkey]

This would be the appropriate chart to analyze or make conclusions from:

That chart says that PS3 won't catch up to 360 in America unless something changes.

That something that changes is next year.

Always the next year.

 

[Oblivion]

Don't pay attention to the baby trolls, Opiate. Most of the people that are bitching are just offended with the reality of the current score.

 

[Ranger X]

End of 2010 worldwide =

Wii 120m
PS3 20m
360 19m

 

[Movement]

9/9/09
It will catch up the day GOW3 comes out on that^ day

Spoiler

BELIEVE

 

[Mr.Potato Head]

Opinions are like assholes.

Everybody's got one, and they all stink.

yours is no exception.

hahaahahahaaha..whats hilarious is 50percent of gafers think they know so much and are always right that they ignore this awesome but yet so correct quote of yours.

The problem is..its a fucking guessing game. No one knows whats gonna happen. As it stands right now.. with the 360 price cut coming soon and with 360 DEFINATELY having the strongest holiday lineup once again..the PS3 momentum will be slowed down greatly very soon...

As far as after that..no one knows..not a single gafer knows..its just a guessing game..

 

[davepoobond]

That is heavily flawed as well.

Limiting the market to only the US gives a significant advantage to the 360 in its head-to-head analysis vs the PS3, and including the Wii creates an onerous situation because the significantly different consumer base will reflect a vastly different future buying pattern that is (heretofore) impossible to predict.

i concur

 

[Mr.Potato Head]

Hmmm.. not sure which gafer post to believe, both are flawed

[/URL]

 

[Farnack]

This would be the appropriate chart to analyze or make conclusions from:

No worldwide charts?

 

[PantherLotus]

^that would require ww data, and I don't do guessing (making up bullshit) like the other chartz site does.

=====

1. I agree with the point that only using the US NPD chart is flawed. I was attempting to give Opiate something to work with.

2. Pretending that the 360/PS3 aren't competing with the Wii is horrendously short-sighted and has nothing to do with legitimate analysis. Or reality for that matter.

=====

 

[Speevy]

what are total ltd software sales for each platform in the us?

 

[Zombie James]

This would be the appropriate chart to analyze or make conclusions from:


(Click for full set of charts from LC)

Unfortunately, looking at this visually one can see why the OP's conclusion isn't supported by data.

The OP is talking worldwide, not US-only.

 

[Opiate]

I don't believe this is a good analysis by my friend Opiate.

First of all, we're talking about shipped data (which is fine) over the past 15 months. Is this data in just the US or WW? I saw the link but the burden of proof is on the analyst. Why 3/9/15? Why not since the generation has began?

Second, we have three sets of data that Opiate has chosen to observe, and for an unknown reason the middle one (with the highest rate of gain) is chosen. Why was this chosen? Why isn't this data plotted visually? I can imagine a nice chart from this that could potentially show exactly the conclusion that Opiate has made, but why is this avoided?

Third, where is the analysis? The OP is this: intro, data, conclusion. Missing the most important part, the careful and considerate point-by-point connecting of the dots for the intended audience so that conclusion hits home.

Lastly, why the conclusion of 2010-2011? The data here shows "sometime in 5 years if it continues at this rate." That would be 2013. This is not the way that metric was intended to be used. Rather, it is used (successfully by JoshuaJSlone) to demonstrate the sales-time-distance that market leaders have over their competition, not as a means of predicting/showing when a particular console will catch up with the one in front of it.



This analysis has potential but we need to start from the beginning.

Several questions here.

1) Yes, the data is worldwide. The shipment information is in the financial reports, which I linked to in the original post, and will list individually here:

PS3:

Q1 FY 08: .71
Q2 FY 08: 1.31
Q3 FY 08: 4.90
Q4 FY 08: 2.32
Q1 FY 09: 1.56

360:

Q4 FY 07: .7
Q1 FY 08: 1.8
Q2 FY 08: 4.3
Q3 FY 08: 1.3
Q4 FY 08: 1.3

I've got more answers to these questions, but it's 1 AM here, I'm tired, and I'll edit this post in the morning. Sorry for the confusion, Panther!

 

[PantherLotus]

^ it's all good d00d. unlike some here, the only horse i have in this race is a quality analysis and a potentially awesome chart.

The OP is talking worldwide, not US-only.

and the 360 doesn't exist in Japan (500k) and we have zero hard numbers for Europe.

 

[Opiate]

and the 360 doesn't exist in Japan (500k) and we have zero hard numbers for Europe.

But the financial reports do give worldwide shipment info, and all of the financial reports are available freely at the links I provided. Which gets to my original point: I chose not to go further back than 15 months for the following reasons:

1) The PS3 launched in Europe late. This skews the data.
2) The effects of the 360 channel stuffing would be very conspicuous. While shipment information is never completely reliable in any given quarter (although it presumably is over the long haul), it was particularly misleading in the winter of 2006 and the early months of 07, when oversupply negated the need to ship any more 360s.
3) The very, very early parts of the generation had literally 0 PS3s selling, when the PS3 was not only unavailable in Europe, but everywhere. That data is also unhelpful.

It certainly isn't a perfect picture, but I tried to take as many reasonable data points as I could. I think shipment information is very good in the long run; it may be aberrant for a quarter or two, but the data is much less prone to channel stuffing errors over the course of years. For example, if we saw in a single quarter that the Wii had shipped 5 million consoles, does that mean it had sold that many? No, and the actual figure could be noticably off from that total. However, if the Wii ships exactly 100 million consoles in exactly 5 years, we can reasonably assume that the Wii was in fact selling ~5 million consoles a quarters, because channel stuffing over that long a time frame (and for that large a quantity) simply isn't possible.

 

[Farnack]

and the 360 doesn't exist in Japan (500k) and we have zero hard numbers for Europe.

B-b-but Tales of Vesperia. ;_;