At this point, I honestly don't see any realistic way for Microsoft to convince me to buy an Xbox One in the next 1-3 years. I'll probably get one near the end of the generation when the dust has settled.
Here are the three main things making me uninterested in buying their console. They're all interrelated:
1. Microsoft's Xbox business unit seems untrustworthy, incompetent, scummy, and overly reliant on brute financial force. They can promise lots of things, but based on past behaviour I trust neither their intentions nor their capability. I don't really care about apologies, acknowledgements, or a revamp of their messaging; I wouldn't be convinced of their sincerity anyways. There's clearly massive institutional dysfunction at play (or maybe some inscrutable behind-the-scenes brilliant strategy that doesn't align with my interests).
2. Considering the PS4/PC are the clear choices for multiplatform stuff, can I count on Microsoft to invest a lot into worthwhile exclusives for the long term, even if the console drastically underperforms and is crushed by Sony? Are those exclusives going to be the type of game I'm interested in? Are those exclusives actually going to be exclusive, or just timed? The problem is that--because of the trust issue--I can't really believe much that Microsoft says about these.
Contrast this with Nintendo. I haven't bought a Wii U yet, but I plan to, because I can trust that the console is going to have a sufficient number of exclusives that interest me. Heck, even if no new games were announced, it probably still would.
3. There are more great games competing for my time than ever. They are cheaper than ever. Even if MS does everything I want in point #1, I'm not going to care as much as I would have a few years ago. They don't just have to secure great exclusives (and convince me that they're going to do so for the next 5 years or whatever), but they have to do that to a greater degree than ever before. It just seems mindbogglingly unlikely at this point.
So, shorter version: I need a sufficient amount of high-quality, exclusive stuff to convince me to buy an Xbox. I don't trust Microsoft to deliver that--not only because it would be hard for any company to deliver that (given the glut of amazing, cheap games competing for my attention)--but because Microsoft seems dickish and liable to try and get away with underdelivering.