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THQ Q3 Results: $56M Loss, SR3 = 3.8M, $47.7M Cash Left, [Stock Drops 30%]

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So the burn rate in full was they were projecting $850 million at some point (for next year it sounded?) but now they're half the company (but had a higher burn rate this year of around $900 million), and not all their expenses come off right away.

Even if we assume they've cut their costs in half (very unlikely), we're looking at $450,000,000 in burn rate and at $35 per copy sold profit (assuming almost all full price and some DLC help for what isn't) we're still assuming 13 million.

So yes, they'd need to average almost 2 million copies sold at full price even in the rosiest of situations.

Looks like expenses are cut by 160 million
The company currently expects these actions will result in a reduction in its annualized run rate of selling, general and administrative expenses of approximately $60 million, and a reduction of its annualized product development expenditures of approximately $100 million, primarily due to its exit from the kids' licensed console games category.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Looks like expenses are cut by 160 million

Right, I was just trying to be ridiculously favorable based on any statements from the call to show that even in this situation it's still nigh impossible for them to make money.

Listening to the conference call. This is a new thing for me but am I wrong in assuming that everyone from THQ sounds completely unconfident in everything that they're saying? He certainly doesn't make you want to invest in their 50 cent stock.

Normally conference calls are extremely upbeat no matter what and people act like they're doing a victory lap unless they are in horrible shape.

This was essentially what EA's call was like: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGXzlRoNtHU

But yeah, this call was quite brutal.
 

SapientWolf

Trucker Sexologist
So the burn rate in full was they were projecting $850 million at some point (for next year it sounded?) but now they're half the company (but had a higher burn rate this year of around $900 million), and not all their expenses come off right away.

Even if we assume they've cut their costs in half (very unlikely), we're looking at $450,000,000 in burn rate and at $35 per copy sold profit (assuming almost all full price and some DLC help for what isn't) we're still assuming 13 million.

So yes, they'd need to average almost 2 million copies sold at full price even in the rosiest of situations.
Seems like they'll have to lay off staff the day the games go gold unless they scrounge up some cash. Sad day for THQ.
 
Also need to factor in catalog sales, SR3 will probably do another 1-2 million this year based on their projections. WWE games also will sell throughout the year.

UFC in a couple weeks is going to be something to keep an eye on. The UFC brand is bigger than ever with the Fox deal, so maybe all that extra exposure can give the game a huge boost. They've had ads on the mat for all the shows over the last couple of months.

Poor sales for that game would be the final nail in the coffin.
 

erragal

Member
Also need to factor in catalog sales, SR3 will probably do another 1-2 million this year based on their projections. WWE games also will sell throughout the year.

UFC in a couple weeks is going to be something to keep an eye on. The UFC brand is bigger than ever with the Fox deal, so maybe all that extra exposure can give the game a huge boost. They've had ads on the mat for all the shows over the last couple of months.

Poor sales for that game would be the final nail in the coffin.

Is what type of license agreement they have with Zuffa available? I find it impossible to believe that they aren't getting a nice cut per unit as opposed to a flat payout from THQ.
 

Hero

Member
Year late, not have half the games that were on the Wii, and not have any new games for it either.

I don't really get why they bothered expanding uDraw onto PS3/360, anyone with half a brain could have told them that a game like that would fail on both platforms.

It's like the reverse of how publishers normally treat Wii ports. The Wii one was first, better, had more content...

THQ am Bizarro.


They did the EXACT SAME THING with deBlob. Take moderate Wii success, port sequel up to PS3 and 360. Result?

RIP Blue Tongue.

Yeah, it sucks for all the employees that are going to be hurting because of this but the company was just so mismanaged. I don't see how they thought uDraw PS3/360 would do as well as the Wii version when it came out a year later and there are clear differences in demographics.
 
Is what type of license agreement they have with Zuffa available? I find it impossible to believe that they aren't getting a nice cut per unit as opposed to a flat payout from THQ.

I don't think that info is available but I think its a safe bet that UFC is getting a piece of the action in return for marketing.
 

Brashnir

Member
So the burn rate in full was they were projecting $850 million at some point (for next year it sounded?) but now they're half the company (but had a higher burn rate this year of around $900 million), and not all their expenses come off right away.

Even if we assume they've cut their costs in half (very unlikely), we're looking at $450,000,000 in burn rate and at $35 per copy sold profit (assuming almost all full price and some DLC help for what isn't) we're still assuming 13 million.

So yes, they'd need to average almost 2 million copies sold at full price even in the rosiest of situations.

Back-catalog games still generate some revenue, too. While most games tend to do their biggest numbers up front, They don't generally stop selling entirely unless they're pulled completely from shelves and DD services.

They stated that SR3 has sold 3.8M to date, and they're expecting it to end up between 5 and 6M. While those sales will be at a reduced cost, it's still 1.2 -2.2 million copies. if THQ averages a $15 cut on those, that's another $18-33M (with probably 60-75% of that this year). Other back catalog titles obviously won't hit those kinds of numbers individually, but as a collective group... well, I don't have enough info to even make a guess.
 

Dalthien

Member
Also need to factor in catalog sales, SR3 will probably do another 1-2 million this year based on their projections. WWE games also will sell throughout the year.
I'd be leery of expecting another 2M from SR3. It only added 200k in all of January, and that was with nothing else being released this month by anybody. Once the major titles start rolling in, SR3 will be forgotten. It may do okay for itself at a budget price, but it's not selling another 2M at full price.

bigtroyjon said:
UFC in a couple weeks is going to be something to keep an eye on. The UFC brand is bigger than ever with the Fox deal, so maybe all that extra exposure can give the game a huge boost. They've had ads on the mat for all the shows over the last couple of months.

Poor sales for that game would be the final nail in the coffin.
UFC will definitely be interesting to watch.

UFC 2009 was a monster, selling 1.54M in the first 2 months of NPD.
UFC 2010 fell off drastically, selling 697k (less than half of 2009) in the first 2 months of NPD.

They gave some extra time off to the series before UFC3. Maybe that time off will help reignite sales, or maybe not. I'm curious to see how it responds.
 

LOCK

Member
I think this is when they go to one of the big three and start working out some exclusive deals, either they are time exclusives or exclusive DLC. Have them help with marketing.

4th largest third party is very respectable.
 

Natiko

Banned
Poor THQ :( Hopefully their strategy to refocus on core titles pans out. I'm just worried they won't be able to get out enough games to start making up lost ground before they run out of money.
 

subversus

I've done nothing with my life except eat and fap
Pushing Metro to 2013 is ridiculous. Well, THQ doesn't own IP, so the team will be able to find a new publisher (perhaps a smaller one) and finish the game.
 

subversus

I've done nothing with my life except eat and fap
Why would they find a new publisher because of that? It's been delayed for a reason.

oh you seem to be in the know? for which reason exactly?

4A Games is the professional and cheap (thanks to its location) team. There are about 50 people. The cost of developing Metro 2033 was less than 4 million bucks. If THQ folds they will easily find another million from smaller publishers like Deep Silver, 1C, bitcomposer, CD Project, Kalypso or get private financial backing (which is entirely possible) and self-publish the game with the help of a gaming PR agency.
 

deleted

Member
Wouldn't it make sense to get the 40k MMO out of the gate?
Seems like a game that could generate a steady stream of revenue, if handled properly.

I don't know much about MMOs or their development circle, so maybe I'm wrong here entirely, but if they managed to reduce the scale of the project and get it our earlier, it would make some cash.
Because the game was planned bigger and some things are already done, they could add expansions and content updates pretty early in its life-circle to keep the audience and get extra revenue.

Also: If they decide to only keep the studios, that are doing the already announced work, wouldn't that allow them to cut many extra costs - at the expense of nothing in the works for 2014 and ongoing?
I'd guess short term decisions are a tad more important now.
 
Wouldn't it make sense to get the 40k MMO out of the gate?
Seems like a game that could generate a steady stream of revenue, if handled properly.

I don't know much about MMOs or their development circle, so maybe I'm wrong here entirely, but if they managed to reduce the scale of the project and get it our earlier, it would make some cash.
Because the game was planned bigger and some things are already done, they could add expansions and content updates pretty early in its life-circle to keep the audience and get extra revenue.

Also: If they decide to only keep the studios, that are doing the already announced work, wouldn't that allow them to cut many extra costs - at the expense of nothing in the works for 2014 and ongoing?
I'd guess short term decisions are a tad more important now.

The 40K MMO probably wouldn't stand a chance as it is now with the market, and releasing whatever they have now with the promise of more in the future, if people pay for it, would make sure that the game would not survive after its initial month of release.

And killing anything not formally announced like the Patrice game would be crazy, since that stuff is what could save THQ right now, if they launch a good game at the beginning of the new console cycle, could put them in a Assassins Creed like spot for the future generation.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
I still don't understand how it's been possible not to bring uDraw on PS360, but to rely so much on it, to spend so much money for it...an huge black hole that could kill them. It's absurd. Sometimes, it seems executives, marketing people, etc. etc. ...don't know a shit about the real world. As well as the analyst. Bah.
 

deleted

Member
The 40K MMO probably wouldn't stand a chance as it is now with the market, and releasing whatever they have now with the promise of more in the future, if people pay for it, would make sure that the game would not survive after its initial month of release.

And killing anything not formally announced like the Patrice game would be crazy, since that stuff is what could save THQ right now, if they launch a good game at the beginning of the new console cycle, could put them in a Assassins Creed like spot for the future generation.

Yeah, sure it wouldn't make sense to launch the game in a broken state.
But if they managed to polish it with fewer races and planets and release them steadily over the months after launch... But I guess thats not how game development works.

Sure, I agree. Its just that they are struggling to stay alive until the new generation hits. Short term, the team won't make any money, but the team will still need paychecks.
It's not that I would like the canceling of the games btw, I'm just thinking how it could be possible for them to stay afloat long enough to stabilize.
 

acm2000

Member
I still don't understand how it's been possible not to bring uDraw on PS360, but to rely so much on it, to spend so much money for it...an huge black hole that could kill them. It's absurd. Sometimes, it seems executives, marketing people, etc. etc. ...don't know a shit about the real world. As well as the analyst. Bah.

uDraw is on 360 and ps3 already
 
Are THQ still publishing the Brave game and a final Nickleodeon game, Nicktoons Party or something?

Brave could certainly help them.
 
Sometimes, it seems executives, marketing people, etc. etc. ...don't know a shit about the real world. As well as the analyst. Bah.

I agree wholeheartedly. Since most of the people on the business side don't seem to play games, I imagine there's not much understanding of the market.
 

HYDE

Banned
What's with THQ's infatuation with V titled companies?

Volition, Vigil, Valhalla

They should change their name during this reboot process to Triple V or something cooler than that(because I can't think of anything cooler).

On another note can't wait for Darksiders 2 and Devil's Third.
 

jcm

Member
Pushing Metro to 2013 is ridiculous. Well, THQ doesn't own IP, so the team will be able to find a new publisher (perhaps a smaller one) and finish the game.

I assume they meant FY13, which starts in 2 months. It's not necessarily a long delay.

Edit Nevermind. It's 4QFY13, which is a year from now.
 

x-Lundz-x

Member
This really sucks, we need THQ to stay around. Before too long all we are going to have left is EA and Activision and that would not be good.

REALLY sucks Metro was delayed, I was looking forward to it because the first was amazing, even on the 360.

SR3 was amazing, but even it's sales numbers were a little low but hopefully enough to keep them around and making more SR games(Sounds like it according to this call at least).
 
They are a huge takeover target. I just don't know who is buying right now...

Sony has too many studios as is. Microsoft has been getting rid of 1st party developers not vice versa. Nintendo doesn't typically buy companies -- they partner with them.

That leaves the third party studios. With their "core" audience focus, I can't see them being targeted by EA / Activision, etc, as they conflict with existing franchises.

I’d speculate they’re best hope is an investor outside the game industry or one from the casual market – like Zynga – that wanted to gain some traditional game resources. Or a Japanese company hoping to get a foothold in the west.

Most likely other companies may wait for THQ to enter bankruptcy and try to buy off parts of the company that have value (e.g., relic, volition).
 
Outside of S-E who bought Eidos is there any other Japanese company that could be tempted to pick them up to "Diversify their portfolio"

I wouldn't be surprised if Ubisoft tried to get their studios.

Tom Clancy's Saints Row The Forth - Sounds good.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
thqstockxbin8.png
 

speedpop

Has problems recognising girls
Goodbye THQ. So does this mean that my prediction of Saints Row 3 performing not as well as the competition was on the mark? Truth be told it would probably be hard to compete against BF3, MW3, Skyrim, etc.
 

jcm

Member
Goodbye THQ. So does this mean that my prediction of Saints Row 3 performing not as well as the competition was on the mark? Truth be told it would probably be hard to compete against BF3, MW3, Skyrim, etc.

4 million for SR3 seems pretty good to me. If your prediction was that it would sell less than BF, MW, and Skyrim, well then, yes you were right, but there's no prizes for stating the obvious.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Gonna get bought by Konami I bet. Maybe Namco Bandai. Mayyyyyyyyybe Capcom, but I really doubt it.
 
Gonna get bought by Konami I bet. Maybe Namco Bandai. Mayyyyyyyyybe Capcom, but I really doubt it.

Capcom have said that they're looking at to buy Western devs. THQ are a lot like Eidos before Square bought them. Lots of talent but the management doesn't know how to handle it.
 

speedpop

Has problems recognising girls
4 million for SR3 seems pretty good to me. If your prediction was that it would sell less than BF, MW, and Skyrim, well then, yes you were right, but there's no prizes for stating the obvious.

It was more along the lines of it being treated harshly by the buying public due to the launch month it was set in. Pretty sure I have a post somewhere in November stating so. Kinda unfortunate since I loved SR3, but I suppose even the "yearly plan for DLC!" did not even out whatever ramifications were incoming.

Mismanagement total :(
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Capcom have said that they're looking at to buy Western devs. THQ are a lot like Eidos before Square bought them. Lots of talent but the management doesn't know how to handle it.

Yeah but I don't know, Capcom seems to be happy doing business with studios on the brink of closure.
 
It was more along the lines of it being treated harshly by the buying public due to the launch month it was set in. Pretty sure I have a post somewhere in November stating so. Kinda unfortunate since I loved SR3, but I suppose even the "yearly plan for DLC!" did not even out whatever ramifications were incoming.

Mismanagement total :(
It's really impossible to say whether the game would have sold better at a different time though. There's a reason why publishers keep dumping games out at the holiday time frame.
 
Warner Brothers sounds like the best case scenario for gamers, exclusive DLC shenanigans notwithstanding. If they ate THQ they could become a true powerhouse with some judicious management.
 
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