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Timothy Lottes: "a 2011 GPU (6970) seems like a possible proxy for nextgen consoles"

You said the avg gpu uses 4 times as much as a console gpu. Launch 360 gpu used 100w. So yeah you are wrong.

Even so cpus have come a long way in efficiency. I see no reason why a optimized cpu could clear up room for a 125w gpu which is very close to some current amd offerings. I know you like to shit on consoles but these next gen boxes will be monsters even if its middle of the road tech.

And if you look at the chart I supplied you'll see that, on average, current GPUs are drawing those amounts of power under peak conditions. We can play this game now where you go and count how many are exceeding 400W and then we can argue for hours and pages about whether that number is equivalent to "average" but I don't see much point since my main argument has already been established; that is, that modern GPUs draw a lot of power and generate a lot of heat, so in their current forms are not appropriate for consoles.

Also, I'm not sure who you are but it's nice that you've come to know and love me. I actually feel a bit warm and fuzzy.

On the topic of power consumption, does anyone know roughly how much power a GTX 580M uses?

Check the chart, it's on this page.
 

Reallink

Member
Top of the line PC GPUs these days use 300W. When 360 was released they used 100. So a contemporary top of the line GPU is completely out of the question.

Well to be fair, the OG PS1 probably pulled 10-20W, the OG PS2 40-50W, and the OG PS3 200W. Obviously the same has applied to case volume as well. If the new consoles are the same size (or smaller) drawing the same (or less) power, they will be bucking a 20+ year trend. I do agree that it's very unlikely they'll exceed the PS3's phat dimensions and PSU, but it's not entirely out of the question either. For example, I wouldn't be taken completely by surprise if one of them decided to go with a foot print more on the scale of Cable/SAT DVR set tops, or a slime line AVR--especially Sony.
 

gatti-man

Member
And if you look at the chart I supplied you'll see that, on average, current GPUs are drawing those amounts of power under peak conditions. We can play this game now where you go and count how many are exceeding 400W and then we can argue for hours and pages about whether that number is equivalent to "average" but I don't see much point since my main argument has already been established; that is, that modern GPUs draw a lot of power and generate a lot of heat, so in their current forms are not appropriate for consoles.

Also, I'm not sure who you are but it's nice that you've come to know and love me. I actually feel a bit warm and fuzzy.



Check the chart, it's on this page.

I lurked on this site long before becoming a member :D
 

Hazaro

relies on auto-aim
'Modern' can be a 6850 which can draw 120W, or it can be a GTX 580.
A trimmed and targeted 6850 would be a perfect fit for a newer console.

Newer consoles won't have a 200W GPU because it costs too much fucking money and makes no sense. With optimizations and a focus on yields/power draw they could easily have a 65W 6850 equivalent that will handle 1080 60fps. If it's 28nm that much easier and possibly lower.
 

duk

Banned
totally fine with a high end gpu from 2011 tailored and customized for 720. that will be an affordable beast in a closed box system.
 

Durante

Member
Well to be fair, the OG PS1 probably pulled 10-20W, the OG PS2 40-50W, and the OG PS3 200W. Obviously the same has applied to case volume as well. If the new consoles are the same size (or smaller) drawing the same (or less) power, they will be bucking a 20+ year trend. I do agree that it's very unlikely they'll exceed the PS3's phat dimensions and PSU, but it's not entirely out of the question either. For example, I wouldn't be taken completely by surprise if one of them decided to go with a foot print more on the scale of Cable/SAT DVR set tops, or a slime line AVR--especially Sony.
That would be awesome, but in a post-Kutaragi world I don't really see it happening.
 

SapientWolf

Trucker Sexologist
I'm with this.
They can optimize for 60fps at 1080 no problem with something like that.

300 and 400W GPU figures? That's entire PC load. Cards than do 60fps at 1080p use under 140W. Much less is needed for optimization if its targeted at a wattage, and less even than that because devs can optimize for a fixed GPU.
Depends on the card and the software. 300W is about right for a 7970 running Furmark. GPU manufacturer's hate that program. It adds about 50W over normal gaming.

edit: nvm Those were fake numbers. 300 is too much. It's looking like it's around 270W with Furmark.
 

aeolist

Banned
Besides just thermal characteristics you need to take into account that Sony and Microsoft's investors are probably really tired of loss-leader consoles that never quite make back their investment.
 

gatti-man

Member
Now cut that in half again and you have a GPU that has adequate power draw for a console.

I should start bookmarking all these posts for the serious servings of crow when next gen consoles release. no way does the most powerful next gen console have a 60w gpu.
 

chaosblade

Unconfirmed Member
I should start bookmarking all these posts for the serious servings of crow when next gen consoles release. no way does the most powerful next gen console have a 60w gpu.

What are you expecting? The entire console will probably draw 100-120W at launch. I don't see why people expect MORE than a 60W or so GPU, unless you're also expecting more five-ninety-nine US dollar price tags.
 
'Modern' can be a 6850 which can draw 120W, or it can be a GTX 580.
A trimmed and targeted 6850 would be a perfect fit for a newer console.

Newer consoles won't have a 200W GPU because it costs too much fucking money and makes no sense. With optimizations and a focus on yields/power draw they could easily have a 65W 6850 equivalent that will handle 1080 60fps. If it's 28nm that much easier and possibly lower.

The 6870 is about the equivalent of the 560Ti.

The 560Ti pretty much already exists in notebooks in the form of the 580M.

I don't see a custom console GPU with roughly the performance of a 6970/580 as being such a big problem regardless of the power consumption arguments that are being made here, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see =)
 

Durante

Member
I don't see a custom console GPU with roughly the performance of a 6970/580 as being such a big problem regardless of the power consumption arguments that are being made here, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see =)
I don't think anyone claimed that this won't be doable. But when the consoles are released the 6970/580 performance level will be ~2 GPU generations out of date in high-end PC GPU terms.
 

gatti-man

Member
What are you expecting? The entire console will probably draw 100-120W at launch. I don't see why people expect MORE than a 60W or so GPU, unless you're also expecting more five-ninety-nine US dollar price tags.

Im expecting a typical ms console. Strong gpu, avg cpu with a big ass power brick and a draw of 150-200w. I have no clue what sony will bring.
 
Besides just thermal characteristics you need to take into account that Sony and Microsoft's investors are probably really tired of loss-leader consoles that never quite make back their investment.

Investors? Huh? Im pretty sure they both have their own capital for this type of project, especially MS.
 

ghst

thanks for the laugh
Was the xenos a "cutting-edge" gpu on release? What is stopping the next xbox from having a gpu that is top of the line for 2013?
as i said before, the power draw and heat output of top-of-the-line chips in 2005 was far more muted than today. efficiency has scaled with time, but the ceiling has become that much higher.

also consider that the 360 was originally intended to be a total gaming powerhouse, a real dragster that frequently whirred and melted itself into oblivion. microsoft's next living room device will be nothing of the kind. it will be an ultra sleek and discreet jack-of-all-trades tv box that will seek to become the iphone of the living room, with gaming as an asset rather than a focus.

you will never see a console with the equivalent contemporary performance of a launch day xbox 360 again.
 

K.Jack

Knowledge is power, guard it well
The 6870 is about the equivalent of the 560Ti.

The 560Ti pretty much already exists in notebooks in the form of the 580M.

I don't see a custom console GPU with roughly the performance of a 6970/580 as being such a big problem regardless of the power consumption arguments that are being made here, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see =)

The 6850 and 6870 are already in notebooks too. They're called the 6970M (~95W) and 6990M (~100W).

The GTX 580M is a solid 100W under load, btw.
 
Im expecting a typical ms console. Strong gpu, avg cpu with a big ass power brick and a draw of 150-200w. I have no clue what sony will bring.

Well sony just revealed like last week that they are going for a SoC at 28nm. They also want some dsp so I would expect some form of cell too.
 

Hazaro

relies on auto-aim
Shouldn't you guys be comparing laptop gpus and not desktops?
Yes. It's much easier to relate to a desktop GPU though and you have similar comparisons like what KJack posted below.
The 6850 and 6870 are already in notebooks too. They're called the 6970M (~95W) and 6990M (~100W).

The GTX 580M is a solid 100W under load, btw.
Right, just speeds down and you have a 65W part and optimization makes up for the rest to bring consoles to a doable 1080 60fps.

I'm confused as to why the 300W GPU powerhouses are being mentioned. It's only if you think the next generations of consoles will be some kind of insane powerhouses that blow out PCs today. I would think parity with a 6850 / GTX 460 would be a targeted goal.
 

TheExodu5

Banned
Well to be fair, the OG PS1 probably pulled 10-20W, the OG PS2 40-50W, and the OG PS3 200W. Obviously the same has applied to case volume as well. If the new consoles are the same size (or smaller) drawing the same (or less) power, they will be bucking a 20+ year trend. I do agree that it's very unlikely they'll exceed the PS3's phat dimensions and PSU, but it's not entirely out of the question either. For example, I wouldn't be taken completely by surprise if one of them decided to go with a foot print more on the scale of Cable/SAT DVR set tops, or a slime line AVR--especially Sony.

PS1 and prior didn't really need any active cooling. That started with the PS2 and cooling was a large concern with the 360 and PS3. As loud as both of these consoles were, their coolers failed to cool them properly and resulted in very high failure rates. The only way to properly cool these consoles is to have big coolers and big fans. Do you really think we'll see a console significantly bigger than the PS3 in the near future?

I'm confused as to why the 300W GPU powerhouses are being mentioned. It's only if you think the next generations of consoles will be some kind of insane powerhouses that blow out PCs today. I would think parity with a 6850 / GTX 460 would be a targeted goal.

That's been my guess for a while.

I don't think the PS3 and 360 successors will be relative powerhouses like their predecessors. I think they'll be a lot more restrained in terms of power requirements and cost this time around.
 

KKRT00

Member
I'm betting right now that it will take 150W of power and not equal the 6970.

edit: TDP of 90W? Well, that might shut me up. That would be an incredible feat, to more than double power efficiency within about a year's time. I'll remain skeptical.

It seems too good to be true, especially when the 7970 doesn't achieve anywhere near that efficiency. That quote is suggesting that you would get 80% of the 7970's performance for less than half of the power cost.

And it will be custom design, so it'll take even less power.
 

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Question to the techies. How does not having to deal with pcie, dual monitor ports, and other pc standards affect gpu size?
 
Given how well the 360's design worked out for MS, minus RROD, I don't see a majorly different approach, imo a 100 watt next-gen offering at launch seems insanely conservative.
 

chaosblade

Unconfirmed Member
Question to the techies. How does not having to deal with pcie, dual monitor ports, and other pc standards affect gpu size?

Not a big difference, the bulk of the die is taken up by the actual cores/shaders. Interface connection should be pretty small, and still existent on a console die, just different. And I don't remember how ports work, but I'm pretty sure those aren't handled on the actual GPU die.

Edit: Unless you're asking about the physical size of the video card versus a console GPU, but that's not a proper comparison. In a console the GPU is a single chip soldered to the main board, while the GPU in a PC is pretty much a PC in and of itself. This is a GTX 460 die (and it's worth noting this is "big":
gf104-coin.jpg


Of course the console GPU when it's all said and done will probably be closer to this size:
cypress-chip.jpg
 

Durante

Member
I'm confused as to why the 300W GPU powerhouses are being mentioned. It's only if you think the next generations of consoles will be some kind of insane powerhouses that blow out PCs today. I would think parity with a 6850 / GTX 460 would be a targeted goal.
The discussion started because someone asked why no one expects the upcoming consoles' GPUs to be on-par with high-end PC GPUs around the time of launch, even though the 360's GPU was (to some extent). And the answer to that is the disparity in power consumption between high-end PC GPUs then and now.


Question to the techies. How does not having to deal with pcie, dual monitor ports, and other pc standards affect gpu size?
Negligible.
 

ghst

thanks for the laugh
Question to the techies. How does not having to deal with pcie, dual monitor ports, and other pc standards affect gpu size?
very little. i'd say that 80% of a card's mass is purely to do with cooling, and even so, if you shoved it in a console sized case it'd still fry.
 

SapientWolf

Trucker Sexologist
Yes. It's much easier to relate to a desktop GPU though and you have similar comparisons like what KJack posted below.

Right, just speeds down and you have a 65W part and optimization makes up for the rest to bring consoles to a doable 1080 60fps.

I'm confused as to why the 300W GPU powerhouses are being mentioned. It's only if you think the next generations of consoles will be some kind of insane powerhouses that blow out PCs today. I would think parity with a 6850 / GTX 460 would be a targeted goal.
The prediction from many people is that next gen console launch games will shit on current games running on a high end PC, and the power to do that has to come from somewhere.
 

Hazaro

relies on auto-aim
The discussion started because someone asked why no one expects the upcoming consoles' GPUs to be on-par with high-end PC GPUs around the time of launch, even though the 360's GPU was (to some extent). And the answer to that is the disparity in power consumption between high-end PC GPUs then and now.
Ok
The prediction from many people is that next gen console launch games will shit on current games running on a high end PC, and the power to do that has to come from somewhere.
I strongly disagree with that opinion.

Consoles will get nice 1080p + 60fps games and hopefully PC ports get better because of it.
What I'd really like to see are improvements in environments, physics, and interactivity more so than graphics.
 
What are you expecting? The entire console will probably draw 100-120W at launch. I don't see why people expect MORE than a 60W or so GPU, unless you're also expecting more five-ninety-nine US dollar price tags.
360 was a 299/399USD console and it draw ~180W under load.

PS3 (which would have been much cheaper if it wasn't for certain design decisions) was a little over 200W under load.

Depends on their goals, but usually power consumption goes up, not down.
 
Also software sales are down. New game designs need new hardware. FPS on rails is boring. Or how about a Zelda with a large world that isn't mostly air or water that you can explore.

Might want to read your own links. People are perfectly happy to purchase the current software.
Bright spots came from HD console software sales, which were up 9 percent in 2011
 

DCKing

Member
Some people think GPU customization and 'optimization' of the hardware is some holy grail in this thread. Customization helps a bit in choosing transistors a bit more effectively for a specific box. It does not allow manufacturers to circumvent the laws of physics and create a GPU that uses much less power or is much smaller than its desktop equivalent (or 'proxy') or is much more powerful than a low power component. It helps only a little bit, but definitely not enough that it makes reasoning about this with PC components useless.
 

RaijinFY

Member
I guess I'm the only one expecting a relatively small increase with performance somewhere in the ballpark between a GTX260-GTX460.

Maybe that just means I'll be surprised if we see something better.

A GTX460 would be a big upgrade compared to what we have now.
 

chaosblade

Unconfirmed Member
A GTX460 would be a big upgrade compared to what we have now.

Yeah, I meant relatively. When people are talking about 6970s, 580s, and 7870s, those are are pretty significantly faster, even more so in a closed box like consoles.

I don't think some people realize just how big of an upgrade to a 460-like part would be. I seriously don't think many console gamers would be disappointed in that leap.
 
Aren't the PS3 and 360 GPUs roughly equivalent to NV 8600GT? If so yeah, a 460 or better yet a 560 level GPU on a console would be big upgrade. And the move to 28nm could allow either cooler parts or more powerful for the same TDP.
 

LCGeek

formerly sane
Yes they will. Closed platform with similar power to what PC's have today (maybe a little less) is going to blow away what PC games are doing right now, no doubt about it. But PC games will move forward as well so console games may only have a slight edge for a little bit.

You do realize once they move to DX11 or sm of that level that a lot of the problems of the DX9 era will disappear? Closed box advantages are becoming smaller and smaller as pc tech software and hardware evolve.
 
Closed box has less to do with it than lack of high end PC development. PC's have a lot of power but nobody really develops anything to take advantage of them. 2007 Crysis really remains the last PC targeted high budget game.

And besides, I'm not aware of any lessening of the advantages of targeting a fixed spec. I find that claim dubious.
 
as i said before, the power draw and heat output of top-of-the-line chips in 2005 was far more muted than today. efficiency has scaled with time, but the ceiling has become that much higher.

also consider that the 360 was originally intended to be a total gaming powerhouse, a real dragster that frequently whirred and melted itself into oblivion. microsoft's next living room device will be nothing of the kind. it will be an ultra sleek and discreet jack-of-all-trades tv box that will seek to become the iphone of the living room, with gaming as an asset rather than a focus.

you will never see a console with the equivalent contemporary performance of a launch day xbox 360 again.

And you know this cause you work at Microsoft?

What makes you say anything as dumb as saying the Next XBOX won't focus on gaming as its prime feature? Baseless claims i read.
 

TheExodu5

Banned
And you know this cause you work at Microsoft?

What makes you say anything as dumb as saying the Next XBOX won't focus on gaming as its prime feature? Baseless claims i read.

It's not exactly an unsupported claim. Microsoft has been moving in that direction for a few years now.

If you expect the 360 successor to be as cutting edge as the 360 was at the time, then expect their new console to be twice of the size of the original 360. I just don't think that's going to happen.
 

eastmen

Banned
We wont see anything less then GCN from AMD.

I also think we will see something around radeon 7970 performance in the console. Its a first gen 28nm part and has alot of stuff that a console wouldn't need.

Also i believe we will see 40 or 50 MB edram buffer in the next xbox which will make up for the vram speed diffrences
 

eastmen

Banned
It's not exactly an unsupported claim. Microsoft has been moving in that direction for a few years now.

If you expect the 360 successor to be as cutting edge as the 360 was at the time, then expect their new console to be twice of the size of the original 360. I just don't think that's going to happen.

Why ? The 360 was drawing close to 200w at launch.

Want to see something cool ?


Anand tested the 7970 with system specs listed

I7 3936 @ 4.3ghz
EVGA X79 SLI
Samsung 470 240GB ssd
16 gigs of ddr 3 1867

43137.png


The 7970 with that complete system is only 100w off the mark of last gen consoles .

Now remember the CPU has a 1GHZ overclock on it and is a 130W TDP by itself at default speeds that chip carrys a 80W diffrence over the i5 2500k with the same hardware.

YOu also have a power hungry motherboard with a ton of features that wont be required in a console .

I think they can easily get 7970 performance in a 200w box . 200w puts it right were the 360 was at launch.

How willing they are to do this depends on how close 22nm is from the consoles launch. If the console hits in 2012 and 22nm is schedualed for 2013 or the console hits in 2013 and 22nm is schedualed for 2013 then i see no reason why ms wouldn't take advantage even if initial chips are on 28nm
 

KKRT00

Member
Also i believe we will see 40 or 50 MB edram buffer in the next xbox which will make up for the vram speed diffrences

I dont really see why we would need edram. I dont really follow edram technology, but X360 edram has transfers similar to 7970 GDDR 5 on 384bit bus.
I would love to have 4gb of GDDR5 shared for whole console in next-gen systems.
 

TheExodu5

Banned
Why ? The 360 was drawing close to 200w at launch.

Want to see something cool ?


Anand tested the 7970 with system specs listed

I7 3936 @ 4.3ghz
EVGA X79 SLI
Samsung 470 240GB ssd
16 gigs of ddr 3 1867

43137.png


The 7970 with that complete system is only 100w off the mark of last gen consoles .

Now remember the CPU has a 1GHZ overclock on it and is a 130W TDP by itself at default speeds that chip carrys a 80W diffrence over the i5 2500k with the same hardware.

YOu also have a power hungry motherboard with a ton of features that wont be required in a console .

I think they can easily get 7970 performance in a 200w box . 200w puts it right were the 360 was at launch.

How willing they are to do this depends on how close 22nm is from the consoles launch. If the console hits in 2012 and 22nm is schedualed for 2013 or the console hits in 2013 and 22nm is schedualed for 2013 then i see no reason why ms wouldn't take advantage even if initial chips are on 28nm

That's 200W above current consoles at launch. The PS3 and 360 launch systems drew just under 200W under load.

If we reach 22nm in time, sure, but that's doubtful since NVidia has extended their projected release to 2014.
 

chaosblade

Unconfirmed Member
I think they can easily get 7970 performance in a 200w box . 200w puts it right were the 360 was at launch.

How willing they are to do this depends on how close 22nm is from the consoles launch. If the console hits in 2012 and 22nm is schedualed for 2013 or the console hits in 2013 and 22nm is schedualed for 2013 then i see no reason why ms wouldn't take advantage even if initial chips are on 28nm
They won't use 22/20nm, at least not at launch. Even assuming it's ready yields likely won't be high enough yet. And there's no way you can magically cut down a 250W part and fit it in a closed box just because it's a closed box.

6970 performance is already seriously reaching. No way we see 7970.

I dont really see why we would need edram. I dont really follow edram technology, but X360 edram has transfers similar to 7970 GDDR 5 on 384bit bus.
I would love to have 4gb of GDDR5 shared for whole console in next-gen systems.
Bigger bus means more RAM chips, meaning more expensive boards, and that means it's hard to cost-cut later. We'll probably see 128 bit GDDR5, or XDR RAM. No reason to have a huge 50MB eDRAM pool though. Anything more than 32MB is overkill as a framebuffer. In fact 24MB is probably all they would need.
 

McHuj

Member
I dont really see why we would need edram. I dont really follow edram technology, but X360 edram has transfers similar to 7970 GDDR 5 on 384bit bus.
I would love to have 4gb of GDDR5 shared for whole console in next-gen systems.

I don't think you'll see a 384-bit bus in console. I/O is a significant contributor to power. I think they can get a similar performance with a smaller bus and edram, but at a much lower power.
 
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