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Timothy Lottes: "a 2011 GPU (6970) seems like a possible proxy for nextgen consoles"

low-G

Member
So there was a thread the other day that implied Battlefield 3 PC @ max settings is what we are to expect from the next generation. After reading this I am to assume that was correct?

If the first wave of consoles games don't blow away every PC game released so far I will be disappointed. Nothing looked like PGR3 when that came out.
 

Curufinwe

Member
You will be disappointed then. PC processors and GPUs are much more developed and mature now, and a PC with no restrictions on power draw is not going to be blown away by launch titles on a $400 or even $500 console that has to fit inside a small box without overheating.

Maybe if you want to restrict the comparison to PCs that cost under $1,000, only use one video card, only use so much power, etc.
 

-COOLIO-

The Everyman
You will be disappointed then. PC processors and GPUs are much more developed and mature now, and a PC with no restrictions of power draw is not going to be blown away by launch titles on a $400 or even $500 console that has to fit inside a small box without overheating.

Maybe if you want to restrict the comparison to PCs that cost under $1,000, only use one video card, only use so much power, etc.

launch games will blow away every pc game so far no question. imo last gens 360 line up blew away high end pc games that were new at the time of the launch but others will disagree with me
 

Curufinwe

Member
PGR3 runs at a shit resolution and low framerate. F.E.A.R. looked way better.

Yup.

launch games will blow away every pc game so far no question. imo last gens 360 line up blew away high end pc games that were new at the time of the launch but others will disagree with me

Anyone who saw FEAR running on a PC and Perfect Dark Zero on a 360 in November 2005 will disagree with you. The confidence you have that launch games will blow away PC games in 2013 "no question" is based on dreams, not reality.
 

DarkChild

Banned
AMD can't just come up with a new GPU core architecture like magic. The only reason the 360 had a new type of GPU is because AMD was just about to start that transition on their PC products and the line of chips they released were a refined version of just that.

They've just now put out the GCN architecture for PC so if Xbox goes with AMD next gen it'll be that.
Aren't they about to start tradition with 7xxx series? If people think nextbox GPU will be based on 4 year old architecture than they are wrong. Thats one area where MS will put alot of money to get it done right...
 

aeolist

Banned
launch games will blow away every pc game so far no question. imo last gens 360 line up blew away high end pc games that were new at the time of the launch but others will disagree with me
I completely disagree. Battlefield 2 launched in June 2005 and blew away every launch 360 title.

Also a lot of early 360 games were PC ports that ran and/or looked worse anyway like CoD2 and Quake 4. Then there was Oblivion in 2006 which was miles better on PC.
 

Proelite

Member
Anyone who saw FEAR running on a PC and Perfect Dark Zero on a 360 in November 2005 will disagree with you.

Developers don't have to relearn multicore programming this time around. I say for certain that launch titles for next gen xbox / ps4 will take better advantage of their hardware's power than current gen launch games did.
 

Orayn

Member
launch games will blow away every pc game so far no question. imo last gens 360 line up blew away high end pc games that were new at the time of the launch but others will disagree with me
What blew away Doom 3, Far Cry, or Half-Life 2?
 

mug

Member
I with they would include physx support in future consoles, the few games that actually utilize the feature look great.
 

ghst

thanks for the laugh
Yup.



Anyone who saw FEAR running on a PC and Perfect Dark Zero on a 360 in November 2005 will disagree with you. The confidence you have that launch games will blow away PC games in 2013 "no question" is based on dreams, not reality.
the 360 also launched with a gpu equivalent to mid-high end pc videocards of the time. even if nextbox retails for $1000 and is a 100% committed gaming machine, it won't have anything close to a high-end part purely due to power requirements.
 

aeolist

Banned
Better cost scaling down the road? Better efficiency? Certainly wouldn't be a waste of anything either way.
I don't really see that being the case since GCN is better in a lot of ways that a console maker will care deeply about, specifically power management and more advanced API support.

Also I'm not entirely sure how much of a difference this will make but GCN was designed from the start to be integrated into SoCs and I'm sure having tighter integration and lower BOM from the start of the generation would greatly interest Microsoft.
 
launch games will blow away every pc game so far no question. imo last gens 360 line up blew away high end pc games that were new at the time of the launch but others will disagree with me

They will, but not technically. Unless Microsoft, Sony or Nintendo have managed to produce some unpublished shader tech we haven't seen before, or some kind of texture tessellation detail technique, then I guess technically we won't see something new or something never seen before on current-gen PCs.

Now if we talk about other games characteristics such as: art, direction, story telling, gameplay, cinematic values... then it most probably will blow us away!
 

-COOLIO-

The Everyman
Yup.



Anyone who saw FEAR running on a PC and Perfect Dark Zero on a 360 in November 2005 will disagree with you. The confidence you have that launch games will blow away PC games in 2013 "no question" is based on dreams, not reality.

i can compare the two right now in 2012. pdz looks waaaay better

and even then fear came out in late 05, right on the heels of the xbox launch. the blown away no question statement was in reference to games so far. i even bolded it. its 2012 not 2013, and at this point 2013 would be early for the next gen systems
 
i can compare the two right now in 2012. pdz looks waaaay better

and even then fear came out in late 05, right on the heels of the xbox launch. the blown away no question statement was in reference to games so far. i even bolded it. its 2012 not 2013

That's fair enough, but it's not particularly impressive for consoles coming out in 2013 to exceed graphics from late 2011 or early 2012. And honestly, it's foolish to count on that being the case anyway when you consider that the average PC GPU uses four times the power of a 360 or PS3 under load, and produces a lot of heat and noise in the process.
 

[Nintex]

Member
That's fair enough, but it's not particularly impressive for consoles coming out in 2013 to exceed graphics from late 2011 or early 2012. And honestly, it's foolish to count on that being the case anyway when you consider that the average PC GPU uses four times the power of a 360 or PS3 under load, and produces a lot of heat and noise in the process.

We will see some impressive games since developers are currently targetting their games to run on hardware developed and shipped in 2005. More games will make use of DirectX 11 features. It's going to be a jump either way, it won't beat the PC in terms of IQ/AA/resolution but these machines will set the new standard for game technology and developers will set the bar higher with their games. New consoles will basically remove a whole bunch of limitations and see a substantial increase in RAM.
 

SapientWolf

Trucker Sexologist
i can compare the two right now in 2012. pdz looks waaaay better

and even then fear came out in late 05, right on the heels of the xbox launch. the blown away no question statement was in reference to games so far. i even bolded it. its 2012 not 2013, and at this point 2013 would be early for the next gen systems
"Waaaay better", huh? What was better? The lighting? The textures? The character models? All of the above?

http://pcmedia.ign.com/pc/image/article/653/653534/fear-20050923050657674.jpg

http://xbox360media.ign.com/xbox360/image/article/670/670581/perfect-dark-zero-20051123110154037.jpg

I bought and enjoyed both games but I don't even think it's a contest here.
 

Curufinwe

Member
And honestly, it's foolish to count on that being the case anyway when you consider that the average PC GPU uses four times the power of a 360 or PS3 under load, and produces a lot of heat and noise in the process.

It's amazing how many people can't get their heads around this fact no matter how often it is pointed out.
 

-COOLIO-

The Everyman
"Waaaay better", huh? What was better? The lighting? The textures? The character models? All of the above?

http://pcmedia.ign.com/pc/image/article/653/653534/fear-20050923050657674.jpg

http://xbox360media.ign.com/xbox360/image/article/670/670581/perfect-dark-zero-20051123110154037.jpg

I bought and enjoyed both games but I don't even think it's a contest here.
id say those are decent pics of each game so kudos for that and id say pdz looks a hell of a lot better

and yeah i guess all of the above. fear probably has better art direction though.
 

aeolist

Banned
id say those are decent pics of each game so kudos for that and id say pdz looks a hell of a lot better

and yeah i guess all of the above. fear probably has better art direction though.
Fear also had incredible AI along with partial environmental destruction and insane particle physics, none of which were things the 360 was doing at that point.
 

KKRT00

Member
GPU uses four times the power of a 360 or PS3 under load, and produces a lot of heat and noise in the process.

What average GPU uses 400W under load? o_0
Most mid range GPUs takes up to 140W, but mostly around 100W and those are 40nm cards and not custom made. Hell, my whole PC probably takes 280W under load [i5 2500k, two hdd, 2x4gb ddr3, GTX 560].
 

aeolist

Banned
What average GPU uses 400W under load? o_0
Most mid range GPUs takes up to 140W, but mostly around 100W and those are 40nm cards and not custom made. Hell, my whole PC probably takes 280W under load [i5 2500k, two hdd, 2x4gb ddr3, GTX 560].
280W is still way too much for a console.

I agree that it'll be closer to a midrange 28nm PC GPU but just saying it's "custom" doesn't make a difference when it comes to power draw. The laws of physics still apply.

The point is that it won't be near the power of a 6970, even on a new architecture and process. GCN is good but performance gains weren't big enough to offset the difference you'd see going midrange versus previous gen high end.
 

pestul

Member
I'm primarily a PC gamer, but I have to admit that 1st generation console games still manage to impress me. Dedicated and serious platform specific development along with fantastic art direction creates some pretty good looking games. Exorbitantly large budgets probably play a factor too.
 

SapientWolf

Trucker Sexologist
id say those are decent pics of each game so kudos for that and id say pdz looks a hell of a lot better

and yeah i guess all of the above. fear probably has better art direction though.
Aesthetics aside, FEAR has dynamic lighting and it looks like it even has self shadowing.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v416/SapientWolf/108hv.jpg

Looks at the jowls on that dude. FEAR was clearly ahead of its time in jowl rendering.

To be honest, comparing PC hardware and console launch games isn't going to tell you much about generational graphics. FEAR 3 somehow looks worse than FEAR 1 and Gears 3 looks better than all of them.
 
launch games will blow away every pc game so far no question. imo last gens 360 line up blew away high end pc games that were new at the time of the launch but others will disagree with me

Didn't they end up getting rid of self shadowing in Oblivion because 360 couldn't handle it; but was perfectly fine on PC version? Didn't FEAR 360 look like utter crap compared to FEAR PC despite FEAR 360 coming out much later?

I wouldn't call that a blowout.
 
You will be disappointed then. PC processors and GPUs are much more developed and mature now, and a PC with no restrictions on power draw is not going to be blown away by launch titles on a $400 or even $500 console that has to fit inside a small box without overheating.

Maybe if you want to restrict the comparison to PCs that cost under $1,000, only use one video card, only use so much power, etc.

Yes they will. Closed platform with similar power to what PC's have today (maybe a little less) is going to blow away what PC games are doing right now, no doubt about it. But PC games will move forward as well so console games may only have a slight edge for a little bit.


Aesthetics aside, FEAR has dynamic lighting and it looks like it even has self shadowing.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v416/SapientWolf/108hv.jpg

Looks at the jowls on that dude. FEAR was clearly ahead of its time in jowl rendering.

To be honest, comparing PC hardware and console launch games isn't going to tell you much about generational graphics. FEAR 3 somehow looks worse than FEAR 1 and Gears 3 looks better than all of them.

Is that Jim Sterling from Destructoid? The resemblance is uncanny.

108hv.jpg


Jsterling.jpg


lol
 

TheExodu5

Banned
I think a 6970 is overly hopeful. Unless we move to a smaller process than 28nm, I think a card with that kind of performance will take too much power to be feasible.

The RSX in the PS3 is a cheaper/slower brother to the 7900GT, and the 7900GT only takes 50W of power.

A 6970 takes over 200W of power on its own. You won't be able to get a card with similar performance that consumes ~100W in the near future.
 
I think a 6970 is overly hopeful. Unless we move to a smaller process than 28nm, I think a card with that kind of performance will take too much power to be feasible.

The RSX in the PS3 is a cheaper/slower brother to the 7900GT, and the 7900GT only takes 50W of power.

A 6970 takes over 200W of power on its own. You won't be able to get a card with similar performance that consumes ~100W in the near future.

Yes you will. It's called a Radeon 7870/7850.

The HD7870 would be based on the Pitcairn XT Core featuring 1536 ALU’s Clocked at 950Mhz, 96 Texture Units, 24SIMDs, 32ROPs and 120W TDP design. The 2GB GDDR5 memory would be maintained at a 5.8Gbps 186GB/S along a 256-bit wide memory interface.

The HD7850 price and specs would put it at a sweet spot for budget gamers. Based on the 28nm Pitcairn Pro Core and offering performance similar to the HD6950/GTX560Ti. The card would feature 1408ALUs clocked at 850Mhz, 88 Texture Units, 32ROPs, 22SIMDs and a rated TDP design of 90W. A 2GB 256-bit wide memory interface would run at 5.2Gbps 166GB/s.
 

TheExodu5

Banned
Yes you will. It's called a Radeon 7870.

I'm betting right now that it will take 150W of power and not equal the 6970.

edit: TDP of 90W? Well, that might shut me up. That would be an incredible feat, to more than double power efficiency within about a year's time. I'll remain skeptical.

It seems too good to be true, especially when the 7970 doesn't achieve anywhere near that efficiency. That quote is suggesting that you would get 80% of the 7970's performance for less than half of the power cost.
 

aeolist

Banned
It will be faster than a 6970 and will use closer to 100w. I'll bet $100 on that right now if you'd like to take me up on that offer.
offering performance similar to the HD6950/GTX560Ti
The possibly overly optimistic PR that you just posted says it'll be similar to the 6950 which could mean slower

In case you were wondering that chip is slower than the 6970

Edit: Whoops reading comprehension. My bad.

Seems too good to be true, but we'll see
 

Corky

Nine out of ten orphans can't tell the difference.
Was the xenos a "cutting-edge" gpu on release? What is stopping the next xbox from having a gpu that is top of the line for 2013?
 

itsgreen

Member
Was the xenos a "cutting-edge" gpu on release? What is stopping the next xbox from having a gpu that is top of the line for 2013?

It was above what was available on launch, and there was even tech from the generation after that inside it.

But at a moderate clock frequency for power/heat/yield management reasons...

Whats stopping it is we don't know the route MS will travel for the 720... they could go high end again, but they could throttle it a bit more, much like a 7950 vs 7970... so they'll get more margin, better yields, lower heat, lower power...

Personally I think that is what will happen...
 

aeolist

Banned
Was the xenos a "cutting-edge" gpu on release? What is stopping the next xbox from having a gpu that is top of the line for 2013?
I believe it was the first chip that had a unified shader architecture to be put in a retail product so in that sense it was.

Power-wise it was close to top of the line but outclassed completely within a year.
 

Durante

Member
Was the xenos a "cutting-edge" gpu on release? What is stopping the next xbox from having a gpu that is top of the line for 2013?
Top of the line PC GPUs these days use 300W. When 360 was released they used 100. So a contemporary top of the line GPU is completely out of the question.
 
The possibly overly optimistic PR that you just posted says it'll be similar to the 6950 which could mean slower

In case you were wondering that chip is slower than the 6970

Edit: Whoops reading comprehension. My bad.

Seems too good to be true, but we'll see

Not too good to be true. It's 28nm, it has a more advanced architecture, and will most likely clock higher at lower voltages.
 

Hazaro

relies on auto-aim
I guess I'm the only one expecting a relatively small increase with performance somewhere in the ballpark between a GTX260-GTX460.

Maybe that just means I'll be surprised if we see something better.
I'm with this.
They can optimize for 60fps at 1080 no problem with something like that.

300 and 400W GPU figures? That's entire PC load. Cards than do 60fps at 1080p use under 140W. Much less is needed for optimization if its targeted at a wattage, and less even than that because devs can optimize for a fixed GPU.
 

Yo Gotti

Banned
This thread makes me think about how much Nintendo may be about to bone themselves with the Wii U.

I mean, 2-3 years down the line when Third Parties are moving all resources to the next gen consoles, where the hell will Nintendo be left with their technology that's just a couple years beyond what the 360 and PS3 can do? Will they be stuck with more shitty ports or do they have a proper next gen console in the pipeline for just after MS and Sony's systems?

Has there already been a topic made about this?
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
They will, but not technically. Unless Microsoft, Sony or Nintendo have managed to produce some unpublished shader tech we haven't seen before, or some kind of texture tessellation detail technique, then I guess technically we won't see something new or something never seen before on current-gen PCs.

Now if we talk about other games characteristics such as: art, direction, story telling, gameplay, cinematic values... then it most probably will blow us away!

perhaps launch games on the consoles won't spunk their entire tessellation budget on a damn brick wall, and instead use it efficiently?

PC games already don't stretch their GPUs in terms of polycount because they're restricted by being part of multi platform development with consoles as the lead. So you just get a resolution/texture/framerate bump. I'm sure some are perfectly fine with that, but I'd like to see what could be done with the entire development focused on using that power to its best advantage
 

gatti-man

Member
Got charts, brah? I posted one a little further up.

You said the avg gpu uses 4 times as much as a console gpu. Launch 360 gpu used 100w. So yeah you are wrong.

Even so cpus have come a long way in efficiency. I see no reason why a optimized cpu could clear up room for a 125w gpu which is very close to some current amd offerings. I know you like to shit on consoles but these next gen boxes will be monsters even if its middle of the road tech.
 
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