Technosteve
Banned
next gen will not have 1080P xbox already has dedicated hardware for scaling and it's super fast.
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Timothy Lottes: "a 2011 GPU (6970) seems like a possible proxy for nextgen consoles"
- Thread starter angular graphics
- Start date
Yeah, I can definitely see that happening. It would be a similar situation to the Xbox 360's Xenos having features from ATi's 2000 series.
brain_stew
Member
A 6970m is an underclocked 6850. We'll get something better than that next generation.
Necronomikon
Member
Not happening.
Ease answer: The Wii (not Wii U but Wii) set an example as how to sell hardware, make a huge profit and use old tech while narrowing costs down. Now, I believe consoles will be upgraded but they won't be almost "top of the line" primarily because of the costs.
Sony (if they have learned anything) wouldn't launch any new console at those elite prices as they did with the PS3 EVER AGAIN! Neither will Microsoft and even less Nintendo. They just need to have better performance right now and people won't bother about the specs. Game Art is what will always compensate for hindrances on consoles.
I really wish something like the 6970 would be a standard, but to maintain a ~$400 or less console price, that card is out of the question! (The 6970 costs around $350 alone!)
Ease answer: The Wii (not Wii U but Wii) set an example as how to sell hardware, make a huge profit and use old tech while narrowing costs down. Now, I believe consoles will be upgraded but they won't be almost "top of the line" primarily because of the costs.
Sony (if they have learned anything) wouldn't launch any new console at those elite prices as they did with the PS3 EVER AGAIN! Neither will Microsoft and even less Nintendo. They just need to have better performance right now and people won't bother about the specs. Game Art is what will always compensate for hindrances on consoles.
I really wish something like the 6970 would be a standard, but to maintain a ~$400 or less console price, that card is out of the question! (The 6970 costs around $350 alone!)
Oppo
Member
You think? I would imagine the mobile variant would be what the platform holders would want.
I'm happy if we do get something better but that's roughly where my expectations are right now.
The games that need to be 60fps, will be. It's not vital for every game. Though it would be nice.
you're misreading the piece if you think it's implying a late 2013 next gen console will have a 6970 equivalent chugging inside. if we go by the performance scaling chart, combined with estimates of next-gen console wattage, a 2013 release would sit at around 7x the horsepower of the current 360 chip - as opposed to the 11x of the 6970.
of course, programming to the metal changes everything - but is also a slow learning process (unlike today, there were no first gen 360 games that couldn't have gotten by with similar performance on contemporary nvidia 7-series video cards).
and this is assuming that microsoft are even going to make gaming anything more than a supplementary service on their forthcoming tv iphone. maybe sony will make wheezing, power gobbling dragster, but their power=success philosophy and how it sits with investors will surely be riding on the vita, having already been wounded by the ps3.
chaosblade
Unconfirmed Member
This is kind of how I feel. Console manufacturers don't benefit from spending all that money on bigger, more expensive GPUs. Console gamers aren't going to care, or even know in a lot of cases, that what they are getting isn't "top of the line graphics" that you could get on a PC. They'll just know it's better than their Xbox and PS3 they have now.
Sure, you would have people on GAF and the like complaining, but how many times does it have to be proven that people like that are not the norm?
Proelite
Member
A card on the level of 6970 will cost $50 (maybe not exactly but definitely a fraction of what 6970 goes for in 2013) to MS and Sony in 2013 and beyond.
To the OP:
Predictions like these are dime a dozen on b3d, some are even more detailed and delve into memory configuration and CPU.
It is my opinion that both Sony and MS will sink hundreds of millions into a extremely customized GPU that has a TDP of somewhere around 100W, and uses a bus (256 bit?) that allows for aggressive cost reduction years down the line. I really don't think BOM at launch of the GPU / CPU individually would matter that much to them, they'll still be a fraction of the cost of contemporary off the shelf cards and those components always decrease in costs drastically year over year with the exception of the Nvidia GPU in the Xbox.
Graphics Horse
Member
Whenever it's due out, I expect they've already decided what they are going to make by now.
Profit gobbling is more of a concern than power gobbling, so they'll probably try to cut back on that this time round, but they'll want to sell it on new capabilities and experiences more than power.
Smiles and Cries
Member
This is true for Nintendo only... They simply don't care so much about being the most advanced or powerful hardware. They have one goal = Profit
Just look at Vita and tell me Sony has learned to cut corners on tech.
The problem for Sony/MS now is the core gamers who buy their consoles DO expect this high end system if they start slacking off now because they rushed in losing billions gamers will just move to PC or wait for another console maker to become as agressive as they come to expect
Kai Dracon
Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
Personally, I think next-gen should support 1080p as standard native rendering frame, period. This gen was a kind of funny broken promise about the "HD generation" when half the big games can't even manage 720p.
However, being locked at 30fps for games that don't need 60 is fine.
And really, with the increase in power over what we already have, I think next-gen will allow developers MUCH more freedom to choose 30 or 60fps without sacrificing nearly as much as they had to this gen.
Look at it this way. Games that look as good as Tekken Tag 2, or MVC3, or even MK9, can be accomplished on five year old hardware and hit the 60fps target. Native 720p too, no sub-HD resolution. Forza and GT also output good visuals at 60fps.
Next-gen, the games that demand 60fps should have way, way more than enough power available to paint plenty pretty pictures that can satisfy demands.
However, being locked at 30fps for games that don't need 60 is fine.
And really, with the increase in power over what we already have, I think next-gen will allow developers MUCH more freedom to choose 30 or 60fps without sacrificing nearly as much as they had to this gen.
Look at it this way. Games that look as good as Tekken Tag 2, or MVC3, or even MK9, can be accomplished on five year old hardware and hit the 60fps target. Native 720p too, no sub-HD resolution. Forza and GT also output good visuals at 60fps.
Next-gen, the games that demand 60fps should have way, way more than enough power available to paint plenty pretty pictures that can satisfy demands.
Absolutely not. Much, much more.
Yeah I wonder if the 720 will incorporate some DX12 features since MS would know what's coming next.
BTW, I think that AMD/MS will make next xbox GPU with new and more efficient architecture, you won't see something like 6xxx series in it. We have seen, from this gen, how much does efficiency matter in closed system. Same amount of transistors in off shelf RSX GPU and 360 one, yet 360 one is about 1.4-1.6 times faster because of its design. Plus, its much better in terms of vertex shading than RSX, which was best GPU you could get off shelf at date.
jim-jam bongs
Member
That's the second time he's referenced a thread here that I can remember, might be time to get Tim a GAF account.
bgassassin
Member
My belief is that they will probably be between the upper 77xx and lower 78xx. Or more specifically no more than 20 CUs.
angular graphics
Banned
More like 4th+
He's frequently using the HD PC screenshots thread for source images to show the progress he's making with FXAA.
I really hope he joins us.
Whoops. Misread the OP, I should've known he was from Nvidia. This confirms that Nvidia isn't involved though
Yeah. The RV770LE is there for the reason that the final GPU will be most similar in terms of raw performance. The final GPU should be recognizable as 2011/2012 tech and feature either VLIW4 or GCN shaders and a modern tesselator.
1.5 is really not indicated at all by the RAM count, GPU and likely CPU. It'll be closer to 3x than 2x more powerful I think. 32MB has been implied as being the EDRAM size in the Wii U (which, given die shrinks, is not as much of a technological marvel as it looks).
I agree. Still, it is not ruled out a custom 1536 SPU GPU at 28nm is possible at the size of the Xbox 360 GPU at launch. That's a size that might be acceptable for Sony or Microsoft. It's a bit of a stretch, but probably still a possibility.
That is the only rule both Sony and Microsoft have too. Nintendo has just validated a business model that cuts costs on the base consoles severely. I don't think we'll get a straight copy, but a Kinect/Move based console does not have to redefine gaming hardware by any means.
The PSP SoC is basically a double iPad 2 SoC. It's probably not that expensive at all, especially not with bulk Sony has them produced. It is well chosen by Sony though.
Missed expectations will be heard of on GAF, but mostly the games still sell the consoles. Quotes like "I want Samaritan or I won't buy" are reserved for the most elitist (and ignorant) of GAFers. Besides, we will probably still say wow
Not a chance really. It has been announced that Windows 8, which ships in roughly the same timeframe as the Xbox Next, will come with DirectX 11.1 only (which itself is only a very very minor update to DX11). DirectX and OpenGL will seemingly be stale for a couple of years, there seems just not that much to improve anymore about these graphics pipelines.
There's no reason to think that AMD doesn't try the most efficient stuff in their desktop cards. The new AMD cards already have a new shader architecture, and there's no reason to expect that the Xbox Next will innovate much on that yet again, especially given that DirectX will likely keep the same featureset until Windows 9.
Zoramon089
Banned
nincompoop
Banned
60 fps is pretty vital for first person shooters, racing games and 3D action games, yet most of those types of games don't run at 60 on PS3 or 360, and some of the more popular ones don't even reach 30.
dragonelite
Member
60 fps also helps against Temporal aliasing some people are sensitive for it.
*brofist*
I'll most likely own all the consoles eventually next gen, but it'll take a long time since I have a decent pc this time around.
People keep saying that, when's it's 100% bullshit. COD, BF and Halo aren't "half" anything.
BoobPhysics101
Banned
No. And nobody said that, lol. Anybody who did is a tard.
dragonelite
Member
Crysis 2,bf3 and many more but it has more to do with deferred rendering and shooting just a bit too far. Cod has a different reason 60 fps and such.
They aren't native either stop bitching about something you just did yourself. I'm not even gonna have this argument outside of my next statement. Devs and manufactuers flagarantly misrepresented performance of games this generation and it shouldn't be tolerated.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
I wish I knew what these numbers meant, as well as the whole "2-3x" as powerful thing. All of these comparisons seem very arbitrary
Pimpbaa
Member
I'm mostly ok with this considering what good developers now can get out of something as antiquated as the RSX. Closed platform and lower level access to the hardware does wonders. Although I would have preferred the 7xxx series just because of more flexibility that architecture would bring.
I would say 2x the visual quality of BF3. Or 1/2 that unreal demo.
Remember that performance is heavily dependent on software AND hardware. High end PC games on modern GPUs would look worse than a console with the exact same specs.
Release after release of high end PC games you can get 50% gains in performance by tweaking settings, crossfire profiles, etc.
If they used a mobile design it would be the recent die shrink. But I don't think they will. Consoles will probably release with 300-350W power and be reved in the future to 150W just like this generation.
SapientWolf
Trucker Sexologist
I think people sometimes underestimate the importance of Good Art™ in graphics. The Samaritan demo would probably run fine on current DX11 single GPU cards. Frostbite 2 and UE3.0 are not a generation apart, tech-wise.
Whine about a minority of releases as much as you want, stating half of them can't manage HD is simply incorrect.
I remember someone breaking down the B3D pixelcount list and around 80% was native somewhere around 720p or higher.
So Frankfurt is right.
The Next-Gen machines will have whatever IBM and Gobal Foundries roll out early this summer:
http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/36465.wss
http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/36465.wss
LabouredSubterfuge
Member
It already is on a number of games.
Deus Ex: HR is one off the top of my head. Sure there are others.
specialguy
Banned
People should stop looking at it as some horrible trick. Crysis 2 is one of the best looking console games this gen and it's "sub HD". And we see with the sub native res games already on Vita it's not going away.
It's a perfectly valid design choice to cut the resolution 10 or 20% and add more effects instead. It's all a tradeoff, one is not better than the other. There are plenty of 720P games too.
At least next gen they should be shooting for 1080P, so when they miss it'll be say, 1000P, and way better off than now anyway.
It's just odd and unfair to draw a line and say "well if the game is not 720P it's shit".
In fact I find the whole thing really arbitrary, because 720P is not the native resolution of almost anybody's TV anyway (it's way below it)! So it's a completely arbitrary line. Now if the line was native resolution for most people aka 1080P, it would make slightly more sense.
nelsonroyale
Member
6970? No thank you
SkylineRKR
Member
Nintendo proves that raw power isn't everything. And to be honest, art direction does a lot too. I think Mario Galaxy looks excellent and more appealing than a freaking lot of HD games out there. They are the masters of art and design.
Fine and dandy but you really didn't quote the whole sentence. It was an assumption based on the dev kit. Doesn't mean that the Wii U won't be updated with present day DX features etc.
Fine and dandy but you really didn't quote the whole sentence. It was an assumption based on the dev kit. Doesn't mean that the Wii U won't be updated with present day DX features etc.
AMD can't just come up with a new GPU core architecture like magic. The only reason the 360 had a new type of GPU is because AMD was just about to start that transition on their PC products and the line of chips they released were a refined version of just that.
They've just now put out the GCN architecture for PC so if Xbox goes with AMD next gen it'll be that.
Haha, nope. You're seeing this happen already to some extent but the consoles and their software are still selling like crazy which basically refutes this point. If people weren't satisfied with lower-power out of date hardware then 360/PS3 sales would be dead in the water right now.
For the most part console gamers buy the hardware because it's the easiest and quickest way to play CoD, Fifa, etc. They don't care too much about graphics.
Year over year sales were down 8% in 2011. Considering that the economy is improving and that 2011 had a payroll tax cut, I'd say the market is saturating. Also consider the lineup for this year is thin and December YOY was down 21%. Next gen will happen within 1.5 years or the industry is going to start seeing layoffs.
"Everyone who wants one has one" is a different problem from "nobody will buy one because it's out of date"
It's the same thing. You have to have a new product with new features that shows that the old one is out of date and creates the demand for it. Also software sales are down. New game designs need new hardware. FPS on rails is boring. Or how about a Zelda with a large world that isn't mostly air or water that you can explore.
It's because it's Nintendo and when there are 2 other console manufacturers, risks can be taken. If all 3 go the cheap hardware route, even tho we'd still see a jump, the hardcore will not rush out to buy a new console. The industry would tank. Bigger and better is ALWAYS needed.
iamshadowlark
Banned
Why waste transistors on gcn though?
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