-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Ubisoft expects to sell more than 7 million units of Rainbow Six Siege lifetime
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
Sorry for quoting so much, but I do not understand where this is coming from. You guys do know that they have paid professionals that probably went to good schools and learned business marketing, statistics, and more, and these are the people that make these projected sales, right? What makes you guys think paid professionals are just talking numbers randomly?
Rockstar Beaver
Banned
I hope so!
jacksepticeye
Member
OnionPowder
Member
Halph n Halph
Member
It's the only shooter I even remotely care about until Battlefield 5.So put me down as one of the seven million.
TouchMyBox
Member
All of you are talking like a Uplay multiplayer game isn't going to be selling like hot cakes.
Portugeezer
Member
Over its lifetime it will do it, assuming it will be good, if it sucks then no, but if it's good it will continue to sell on PC for many years.
Mufausa The 3rd
Member
The title of this thread should be called, "EA expects to sell mroe than 7 million units of Star Wars Battlefront lifetime."
iNvid02
Member
Compsiox
Banned
I'm not even sure if any of the big 2 would want it.
Michael Pachter is also a "PAID" professional, think about that for a sec.
No matter how much some people like to think he is stupid, he is not, otherwise he would not get paid. Do you think people like to throw money away? The competition for intangible goods, such as statistical analysis, is very strong. If he still gets paid, that means he is doing something right, no matter how much flack he gets from forum members.
Also, the stuff he "predicts" that is public is not really the work he gets paid for.
If it reviews well, gets a fan base going, and releases at a good time, I could see it do 7 million lifetime. But if it's already not getting favorable word of mouth, that might translate to mediocre review scores, in turn resulting in a small fan base. If it then also releases right up against BLOPS 3 and Battlefront 3 it's not looking good.
PinkCrayon
Member
Yes your high expectations worked so well for Blacklist Ubi, keep the dream alive.
GravityMan
Member
2-3 million units sounds more reasonable. 7 million is extremely unlikely, no matter how well the game turns out or how aggressively it's marketed.
The thing is, Rainbow Six has always been a niche, hardcore IP, and Siege won't change that.
Design-wise, R6: Siege is very unlikely to have mass market appeal. (FYI that's not a knock against the game.) Very few casual gamers will be interested in the game. It's tactical and requires a lot of thought and planning. That will bore most casual gaming fans. It's unlikely to be accessible in a pick-up-and-play shooty shooty bang bang kind of way.
Side note: I'm surprised Far Cry 4 managed to sell 7 million.
The thing is, Rainbow Six has always been a niche, hardcore IP, and Siege won't change that.
Design-wise, R6: Siege is very unlikely to have mass market appeal. (FYI that's not a knock against the game.) Very few casual gamers will be interested in the game. It's tactical and requires a lot of thought and planning. That will bore most casual gaming fans. It's unlikely to be accessible in a pick-up-and-play shooty shooty bang bang kind of way.
Side note: I'm surprised Far Cry 4 managed to sell 7 million.
Welfare
Member
Don't discredit him because of his silly comments on games. That's a hobby to him, not his actual job.
alexandros
Banned
Nah.
Sales projection fail all the time. Being a paid professional doesn't mean you are suddently full proof and indicating that is a very naive way to look at things.
Being paid also doesn't mean people can't disagree with you like the case here.
And yeah, hitting 7 million will be very hard when going against Star Wars, BLOPS3 and Halo and with the PC market dominated by CS.
MiguelItUp
Member
Yeaaaah, good luck. I know people have enjoyed what they've played, but I really wasn't impressed. Not sure what it was, I just wasn't feeling it. 
I can see Battlefront selling 10 million units at least by the end of the year. It's the game to go along with a new Star Wars Movie so it should actually surpass that number quite easily.
Rainbow Six on the other hand hasn't seen a new game since 2008 I believe and is coming out in the middle of more than a few bigger releases of the same genre.
TimeEffect
Member
Gotta get rid of all the mainstream stuff though, like hitmarkers and callouts and some of the dumb gadgets.
Game has serious potential to fill in a huge void for the genre, but it's not going all the way
Game has serious potential to fill in a huge void for the genre, but it's not going all the way
Shining Sunshine
Banned
Without a good single player, this is not going to happen.
The multiplayer is fairly shallow imo. It wasn't that great or strategic.
The multiplayer is fairly shallow imo. It wasn't that great or strategic.
I'm not saying he's "Stupid" I'm saying PAID professionals are only human and human make mistakes.
You act like professionals never fuck up. I still think 7mil is too high a number.
If sales projections fail all the time as you say, then why does every business with a product or service to sell have at least one person or department employed and working on sales projections? Do firms like to pour money down the drain? It's not always 100 percent, of course, but it is near it.
And those guys were not disagreeing, they were discrediting the sales projections educated people, or at least that is what it felt like.
Herman Cain
Banned
Then you have Halo and The Division as well.
Chobel
Member
The Division is next year.
JetBlackPanda
Member
wow what are they smoking at ubisoft?
Hyperzephyrian
Banned
I hope the game does well. Everything I've seen and heard from the devs makes me confident that they understand what Rainbow Six is all about. But I think 7 million is optimistic at best. If (when?) it fails to meet that goal, I'm afraid that Ubisoft will permanently can the franchise.
I don't think it's random. But publishers regularly overestimate their sales projections. They have an incentive to do so, to keep shareholders from selling and devaluing their stock.
He often says stupid things, but I really don't have much of an opinion on Pachter. However, in the real world, there are legions of people who get paid to speculate and write up estimates and draft plans, most of which fail or go nowhere. That's what happens when business majors saturate their fields. (Which is what happens when your economy's manufacturing base is demolished by outsourcing.)
To prevent the shareholders from panicking and selling their stock.
RespectThySole
Member
More like 3-4 million.
Triggerhappytel
Member
So in order to reach this in lifetime sales and given typical sales patterns they'd probably need to sell 4+ million copies in its opening month? That seems kind of high, given that the series isn't a sales powerhouse in that way and it's launching against some very strong FPS competition, I think it's going to struggle to hit those numbers.
Welfare
Member
Whatever Square seems to be passing around.
Always-honest
Banned
I'll be buying most of them
What makes you think that? There will be more than just this mode we've seen.
I never said they never screw up, I am defending their work. Being a finance major, I had to take Econometrics. The math involved in building models and regressions to make predictions such as these off of is beautiful and sound. There is a ton, and I mean a ton, of work to do this, and still, at the end of the day you end up with estimations, which is why I know they cannot ever be 100 percent right. However, being employed means they are right far more then they are wrong.
What you are saying about the stock is right only for the first overestimation. If they overestimate their projections over and over again investors will see this, and this will cause speculation and in the end it will be even more damaging than providing accurate estimates.