Eek, this is some scary stuff.
Theres a problem with explaining this shit away with an idle Oh, itll only affect asset flippers and card farmers. The problem is
thats not what Sean J said. Lets take a look at what he actually wrote:
If we are denying keys for normal size batches
So we are talking about Valve denying keys for
normal size batches. Not ridiculous batches. Not huge batches.
Normal size batches.
Its likely because your Steam sales dont reflect a need for as many keys as youre distributing, and youre probably asking for more keys because youre offering cheaper options off Steam and yet we are bearing the costs.
He said it right there: if Valve thinks youre offering cheaper options off Steam, they dont like that. They want to shut that down. They dont want developers to have control of where and how their games are sold. Not if it means Valve isnt nabbing as much revenue as they could be.
So at some point we start deciding that the value youre bringing to Steam isnt worth the cost to us.
You want to sell copies of your game? Well, what have you done for me lately? is a
scary attitude for developers. Steam is a gatekeeper for developers of PC games. Unless youre as big as EA or your only ambition is to sell 50 copies on itch.io, you have to sell your game on Steam, and Steam keys are where the vast majority of your sales are gonna come from. Prove that youre still valuable to me is an ominous thing to hear from the guy who already happens to have a guillotine over your neck.
For example, say youve sold a few thousand copies on Steam but have requested / activated 500K keys, then we are going to take a deeper look at your games, your sales, your costs, etc.
Seans example is 500K keys, but he already said explicitly that Valve is perfectly willing to deny keys for
normal size batches as well. But notice what else Sean said here: if Valve doesnt like how and where you choose to sell your game, theyre going to take a deeper look at your games. Not game. Games, plural. The threat extends to your entire portfolio of PC games. And theyre going to take a deeper look at your costs. What business is it of Valves what a developers costs are? Why would Valve need to know a developers costs? Well, the more you know about a developers income statement, you more you know about how reliant they are on off-Steam sales of their game, and the more you know about how much they could afford to be herded back onto your storefront...
Sean J could easily have said Were only ever going to deny keys to developers who are exploiting trading cards and who have requested a thousand times more keys than copies theyve sold.
If that were what he wanted to say, thats what he wouldve said. He very specifically
didnt say that.
And besides, isnt Valve supposed to be fixing these trading card exploits anyway? Why not just fix that problem directly and make it impossible for these exploits to happen? Why tackle the problem indirectly through case-by-case decisions about free key batches? Because this isnt really about trading card exploiters, which is why Sean J didnt even
claim it was about trading card exploiters.
Heres the thing: Valve is not your friend. They are not your friend if youre a consumer. They are not your friend if youre a developer. They are business men whose job is to make money, just as surely as the CEO of EA, or the CEO of Walmart for that matter. They are not your laid-back video game-loving bros. They are bloodless bureaucrats who care about what customers and developers want exactly to the degree that it helps them make money, and no further.
Weve already seen Valve pursue what is basically a quasi-monopolistic strategy. They used incredibly deep discounts to make huge gains in popularity and force everyone on PC to invest heavily in their storefront. Then when their position was secure, they eliminated their two-tier discounts (regular sale price vs. dailies and flash sales), and voila: sales are garbage now, and Valve makes more money.
But developers can still sell their games off-Steam. So now Valve is eying those off-Steam sales. They dont like Humble. They dont like other key resellers. They want their 30% of those sales. So the next logical step is to start tightening the screws on developers who like the freedom to sell their games wherever they want.
Obviously it wont happen all at once. Theyre not gonna shut Humble down tomorrow. But slowly, starting with borderline-illegitimate developers and moving to unpopular and unknown developers, they could very well start turning up the pressure. You want to deeply discount your game off Steam? Sorry, cant give you those keys. You want to put your game in the $1 tier of a Humble Bundle because you really want as many people to play it as possible? Ooh, sorry, youve only sold 5,000 copies on Steam; we cant give you 25,000 keys.
Maybe they wont do this, or they wont do it soon. But one things for sure: if they want to do it, their conscience certainly isnt going to stop them. They dont care about whats good for customers or developers any more than any corporation does. The second they think they can get away with something like this, or that the gains will outweigh the negative PR, they wont hesitate a moment to pull the trigger, and theyll sleep like babies that night.
And people on here will
still be insisting that these super-rich business moguls just love video games, and love developers, and are just the cuddliest most transparent most consumer-friendly bros a gamer could have. And everything is the fault of those bad evil asset flippers and card exploiters, even though theyre mostly random kids or poor dudes overseas trying to make a quick buck who have no actual power or influence, and Valve controls the entire system and holds all the cards. But Valve would never do anything anti-consumer! Poor beleaguered Valve just cant seem to get rid of those card exploiter vermin! Valve has to start carefully controlling when and where developers get to sell their own games! Because of those wicked asset flipper! Praise Gaben!