Support NeoGAF

[Manmademan]

Lets watch VR and AR,

Let's not. Both of these technologies are HYPER niche, and only going to appeal to the hardest of the hardcore- at least in regards to gaming. No one in their right mind thinks VR like Oculus is going to put a dent in the PS4 or Xbone marketshare- especially since Facebook just bought them. Oculus is going to be rapidly targeted towards virtual vacations and living room tours. Facebook has no experience at all with core gaming, and no motivation to compete in that sector.

and lets watch what the potential of living room machines governing TV viewing along with a myriad of other services as well as supplementing with gaming. VR has pretty wide ranging implications and has the power to drive industries that wouldn't typically have programmers, engineers, designers, artists etc synonymous with gaming, to start taking more of them on board.

Oh wait, you're serious?? Let me break this down for you. We're talking about the impact of these machines on the existing playstation and microsoft userbase. I'm sure someone super casual somewhere will find some use for an amazon box or an appletv, but as it is it will be YEARS before Amazon or Apple put together a device that outperforms a PS3, let alone a PS4 or an Xbone.

Keep in mind there are already 160 million PS3's and Xbox 360s installed in the homes of the gamers intending to buy a PS4 or Xbone. These two systems *already have access* to Netflix, HBO GO, Amazon Prime, Hulu Plus, Crackle, Vudu, Crunchyroll, Epix, MLBTV, NBA, NHL, downloadable movies on demand, movies for rental, and god knows how many other niche video services I've forgotten about (YuppTV?) And if you own a PS3, the cost for those services is $0 (beyond your subscription, that is). And that's before we consider the damn near 2000 games available on both platforms in physical and digital form that can be had extremely cheaply.

Why on earth would an existing PS3/Xbox owner buy an apple TV *instead* of a PS4? It does far less than the systems they already own, and are worse at it.

You assume that these TV boxes from apple, google, amazon etc as well as mobile will sit at the same graphical fidelity for over a decade? I would not count on that at all. Particularly with the living room boxes, they are not going to just target TV but all manner or streaming services along with gaming. I wouldn't be surprised to see them invest in more powerful machines as time moves on and these machine become common place. And of course steam machines seem a lost cause right? We'll see how that turns out in 10 years. Of course all of this is hypothetical, but the investments are there and this is the first time many of these big players are actually dedicated to serving "the biggest screen in the house" also often where the console sits. It is unknown whether this is of benefit to consoles or detriment

I don't need to "assume" anything. the business model for these boxes means that building something that outperforms a PS4 at the same or lower price point is extremely cost prohibitive- especially since Sony has the luxury of selling those devices at no cost, or a loss- and does so all the time. Apple in particular is extremely loath to do this, and builds substantial margins into everything they sell. Amazon has no motivation to, especially since PS3 and PS4 already support Amazon instant streaming. They've got your money either way.

We can also look at how the iphone and ipad have fared next to dedicated gaming platforms like the PSP, PS3, or Vita. Apple TVs and (presumably) Amazon boxes are or will be built around existing portable technology. How long did it take iphone games to outperform the PSP? A good vita game is still WELL past the top end smartphone or ipad game, and the PS3 has been on the market for 8 years and smartphones aren't anywhere CLOSE to the performance of that thing. The PS4 is estimated to be a good 10 to 20 times more powerful. There is no chance an apple TV outperforms a PS4 before I have grandkids. Mobile has battery life to worry about and will always have power issues holding it back- to say nothing of touch controls being horrendous for just about every significant console genre. Forget about it.

Those devices, much like smartphones and i-devices, are not aimed at the dedicated gamer segment and not meant to go after that marketshare. It's an extremely high bar for apple/amazon to try and hit, and pointless for them to try.

Edit: and for some reason you mentioned "10 years" several times. This last gen was the longest anyone can remember (outside of generation 2) and only went for 7 years. in TEN years we'll be halfway through the PS5 and hearing rumors about the 6!

 

[Markitron]

PS4 - 90m
XB1 - 60m
WiiU - 15m
Vita - 18m

I think the XB1 will improve drastically in the next few years, but will still fall short of the PS4 in the US and be nowhere near it worldwide.

 

[robo]

As time goes on I can see quite a few only going with one console, people aren't going to pay £350-£400 for each console and then have to pay £40 a year for online for both consoles on top. This I think is the elephant in the room that will hurt xbone more than PS4. The PS4 should always have the better multiplats and arguably the better 1st party offerings.

Logically people will go for the more powerful system and as it's currently cheaper this should make the decision easier for the masses as it seems to be as it stands.

It then starts to look like a self for filling prophecy. People buy more PS4's, potential buyers see it leading and getting better versions of games, decide to buy it as well, increasing the gap even more, more potential buyers see the PS4 selling more, rinse and repeat.

Microsoft can't buy mindset, and currently the mindset is the PS4 is the better option.

I think the gap will be quite a bit more than 20m in favour of PS4.

PS4 95m
Xbone 40m
WiiU 20m

3ds 65m
Vita 25m

 

[Mxrz]

Unless MS invents KinectPorn, what's going to sell all these Xbones? 30-35 million seems about what they're on pace for.

 

[LegendofLex]

In the absence of any unexpected megatons (like an early successor to Wii U), these are my ~2018 estimates for consoles (all ≤ estimates):

PS4 | 70m
Xbox One | 50m
Wii U | 20m

~2016 estimates for handhelds:

3DS | 60m
PS Vita | 16m

 

[gigantor21]

Random spitball estimates:

PS4 - 100 million
Xone - 60 million
WiiU - 15 million

3DS - 60 million
Vita - 10 million

I expect Sony to cannibalize the PS360 market due to MS's lack of brand strength outside the US and UK, and the further decline of the Japanese market. We'll see little growth between the two of them combined compared to their predecessors IMO.

The handheld market will continue it's collapse compared to last gen. It peaked along with the 3DS in 2012; mild growth for the Vita in Japan isn't going to offset it's shitshow performance globally, let alone make up the difference for Nintendo's now-waning device.

 

[Dire]

If they just meant the gap gets smaller than they just have to not lose by as much each month. A far more likely scenario.

And you're not understand what he's saying.

360 Model = Great in America, Crushed everywhere else.
PS3 Model = Crushed in America, Great everywhere else.

The PS4/XBone being at all close in America is actually a huge gap. The mistake people are making is extrapolating NPD to the rest of the world. It's not at all. The XBone "closing the gap" would entail starting to outsell the PS4 in the US by 50%+ or exponentially increasing its sales outside the US. Neither of those scenarios has any justification in reality.

 

[LordOfChaos]

No way will the PS4-One difference be 50 million imo. Probably like 90M and 75M, or even closer, or who knows, they could cross over at some point. Wii U will be under 30M.

 

[Biker19]

And you're not understand what he's saying.

360 Model = Great in America, Crushed everywhere else.
PS3 Model = Crushed in America, Great everywhere else.

The PS4/XBone being at all close in America is actually a huge gap. The mistake people are making is extrapolating NPD to the rest of the world. It's not at all. The XBone "closing the gap" would entail starting to outsell the PS4 in the US by 50%+ or exponentially increasing its sales outside the US. Neither of those scenarios has any justification in reality.

This. Anyone who seriously thinks that Microsoft can easily pull a PS3 in sales with Xbox One, are dreaming. Reasons why:

1.) Last generation lasted for 8 years, which is one of the main reasons why PS3 had caught up to Xbox 360 in sales worldwide & have even surpassed them, despite the 360 having a 18+ million lead over PS3 in the U.S. This generation is only going to be lasting for 6 years at the very most.

2.) Like I said earlier, MS doesn't have worldwide like Sony does. In order for MS to close the gap, Xbox One would basically have to sell around the same numbers like Xbox 360 did (with 46+ million in sales) in the U.S., possibly more than that. Much, much more. I can't see that happening.

 

[infiniteheteroskdasticity]

I'm assuming lifetime = till successor is released because older consoles can still have big sales. I'm assuming both consoles will have replacements released by the end of 2018 (I think Microsoft might try to replace the Xbox One earlier though). I'm assuming the Wii U is replaced by the end of 2016.

PS4 65m-75m. The easy winner that outperforms the PS3 on a year normalized basis. Dominant across the rest of the world and tied in the US.

Xbox One 40m-50m. Big disappointment for Microsoft after the 360s success. Loses marketshare across the board but still manages to match the PS4 in the US market. Forces Microsoft to be much better prepared for the next console transition.

Wii U 15m-20m. Absolute Disaster. Nintendo's last home console. Replaced by TV dockable portable of comparable power in late 2016.

 

[Nzyme32]

Let's not. Both of these technologies are HYPER niche, and only going to appeal to the hardest of the hardcore- at least in regards to gaming. No one in their right mind thinks VR like Oculus is going to put a dent in the PS4 or Xbone marketshare- especially since Facebook just bought them. Oculus is going to be rapidly targeted towards virtual vacations and living room tours. Facebook has no experience at all with core gaming, and no motivation to compete in that sector.



Oh wait, you're serious?? Let me break this down for you. We're talking about the impact of these machines on the existing playstation and microsoft userbase. I'm sure someone super casual somewhere will find some use for an amazon box or an appletv, but as it is it will be YEARS before Amazon or Apple put together a device that outperforms a PS3, let alone a PS4 or an Xbone.

Keep in mind there are already 160 million PS3's and Xbox 360s installed in the homes of the gamers intending to buy a PS4 or Xbone. These two systems *already have access* to Netflix, HBO GO, Amazon Prime, Hulu Plus, Crackle, Vudu, Crunchyroll, Epix, MLBTV, NBA, NHL, downloadable movies on demand, movies for rental, and god knows how many other niche video services I've forgotten about (YuppTV?) And if you own a PS3, the cost for those services is $0 (beyond your subscription, that is). And that's before we consider the damn near 2000 games available on both platforms in physical and digital form that can be had extremely cheaply.

Why on earth would an existing PS3/Xbox owner buy an apple TV *instead* of a PS4? It does far less than the systems they already own, and are worse at it.



I don't need to "assume" anything. the business model for these boxes means that building something that outperforms a PS4 at the same or lower price point is extremely cost prohibitive- especially since Sony has the luxury of selling those devices at no cost, or a loss- and does so all the time. Apple in particular is extremely loath to do this, and builds substantial margins into everything they sell. Amazon has no motivation to, especially since PS3 and PS4 already support Amazon instant streaming. They've got your money either way.

We can also look at how the iphone and ipad have fared next to dedicated gaming platforms like the PSP, PS3, or Vita. Apple TVs and (presumably) Amazon boxes are or will be built around existing portable technology. How long did it take iphone games to outperform the PSP? A good vita game is still WELL past the top end smartphone or ipad game, and the PS3 has been on the market for 8 years and smartphones aren't anywhere CLOSE to the performance of that thing. The PS4 is estimated to be a good 10 to 20 times more powerful. There is no chance an apple TV outperforms a PS4 before I have grandkids. Mobile has battery life to worry about and will always have power issues holding it back- to say nothing of touch controls being horrendous for just about every significant console genre. Forget about it.

Those devices, much like smartphones and i-devices, are not aimed at the dedicated gamer segment and not meant to go after that marketshare. It's an extremely high bar for apple/amazon to try and hit, and pointless for them to try.

Edit: and for some reason you mentioned "10 years" several times. This last gen was the longest anyone can remember (outside of generation 2) and only went for 7 years. in TEN years we'll be halfway through the PS5 and hearing rumors about the 6!

Well you clearly didn't read my original post and the guy before so there is clearly no way to debate when you don't know my argument. Typical defensive gamer. Nevermind

 

[Usobuko]

I'm expecting this ratio for console.

Ps4 : Xbox One : Wii U

5.5 : 3.5 : 1

 

[Trevelyan9999]

PlayStation 4 = 90 million

Xbox One = 45 million

Wii U = 25 million (China is going to raise the system past Gamecube levels)

 

[IdreamofHIME]

PS4/XBONE same as PS3/360

I dont see the market collapsing and them bombing, while I don't see a Wii like thirst that will shoot them to the moon.

WiiU, who knows. All depends when Nintendo pulls the plug. I could predict 20mil and Ninty could bin it by the end of the year leaving that number as crazy high. Who knows, eh.

 

[quetz67]

The PS4/XBone being at all close in America is actually a huge gap. The mistake people are making is extrapolating NPD to the rest of the world. It's not at all. The XBone "closing the gap" would entail starting to outsell the PS4 in the US by 50%+ or exponentially increasing its sales outside the US. Neither of those scenarios has any justification in reality.

There is always the argument: "The PS3 caught up after a slow start, why shouldn't the XB1 do the same?"

I think this is exactly the wrong way to see this. PS3 caught up DESPITE not being cheaper nor more powerful than the 360. All it had going for it was brand name and exclusive games.

XB1 still has the weaker (damaged) brand name (outside US and right now there too), will probably only reach price parity if at all and still does not have nearly the number of first party studios and IPs Sony has.

So even with MS trying hard all I can see they can reach is slowing down the increase of the gap. But as far as they have moved from the reality of customer preferences they might even think the September Tier 2 launch is all they need.

 

[jryi]

There is always the argument: "The PS3 caught up after a slow start, why shouldn't the XB1 do the same?"

People have been playing too much Need for Speed, and are accustomed to rubberbanding. In real life, if you are losing, there is no magical hand slowing down the one in lead and boosting the chaser.

 

[serversurfer]

There is always the argument: "The PS3 caught up after a slow start, why shouldn't the XB1 do the same?"

Because contrary to popular belief, PS3 didn't actually have "a slow start." Yes, they had some production issues the first couple of quarters, but after that, PS3 consistently outsold the XB360. The only exception being when XB360 got a temporary Kinect bump in … 2011, maybe?

PS3 didn't get a slow start, and XB360 didn't get a fast start. PS3 got a late start, and XB360 got an early start. PS3 sold better than XB360 virtually every year it was available; there was never any "turnaround." I actually can't think of an example where the slower-selling console ever made a consistent turnaround to become the faster-selling console, or even significantly changed its sales curve.

 

[Lynn616]

For every XBone sold this year, 3-4 PS4s were sold.

Yet instead of 1:3 or 1:4 ratios, a lot of people are predicting 2:3 or 3:4 ratios. Can anyone explain what would cause such a massive turnaround in sales? That's completely unprecedented, AFAIK. Please be more specific than, "Price cut and Halo," or something similar, since obviously the PS4 will be getting price cuts and awesome games as well.

Current sales rates indicate that when PS4 is hitting 100M, XBone will be around 30M. What causes an additional 30-40M XBone sales? It seems more likely that developers and/or consumers will lose interest in it entirely and it'll sell 25M or less.

Why would developers not make an X1 version with the system specs so close to the PS4?

 

[serversurfer]

Why would developers not make an X1 version with the system specs so close to the PS4?

First, the specs aren't close, and even if they were, the XBone has the extra headache of the eSRAM, so a port isn't just a matter of a recompile, even if they're both x86. Plus, the PS4 has all of the hUMA stuff, which will be hard to fully leverage if you plan on porting to the XBone.

Anyway, at the current sales rates, in a few years we'll have a split of about 80% PS4 and 20% XBone, and that assumes XBone sales don't drop any more than they already have.

Spoiler

Yes, I'm purposely ignoring the Wii U.

Given purchase overlap, porting your game to XBone may only boost your sales 10-15%. That being the case, are you better off doing the port, or spending those same man-hours developing DLC for your PS4 users?

It's not gonna be a 50-50 split like we had in Gen7. Not even close. Porting means delaying release on your primary platform — delaying your payoff — and diverting resources which could've otherwise been devoted to serving that larger market — reducing your payoff. Neither of those strike me as particularly wise decisions.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Why would developers not make an X1 version with the system specs so close to the PS4?

Why doesn't every PC game have a linux port?

Note: I don't actually believe that there will ever be a time when the XB1 starts to significantly lose 3rd party support because of its sales but specs aren't the end all of porting cost aspects