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[Phediuk]

It's a bit early in the generation to know how things will pan out, but for posterity's sake, can we just have people predict total lifetime numbers here?

With the market contraction that has happened in the last few years, and the collapse of the Wii casual market, the eighth generation is virtually guaranteed to sell less than the seventh. No way is this generations selling 270,000,000 consoles. The question is, how much lower will the number be this time?

I doubt any of the consoles will reach 100M this time. 90M for the PS4 seems right if it keeps up some reasonable momentum over the next few years; current market conditions do not allow for PS2-style ubiquity, but it will still be a great success in its own right. The Xbone is the hardest system to pin down because the trajectory of the US market is still uncertain. I think we can safely say it will not reach the 80M+ that the 360 did, due to the PS4 eating away its market share in the US/UK. Mainland Europe numbers are likely to be considerably diminished too, due to the delayed launch in the Tier 2 countries. I'll say 40M, assuming it sells around 25M in North America.

I may as well predict the handhelds here too. I'll say 70M for the 3DS. Sales have slowed considerably in 2014. and it is therefore unlikely to reach PSP or GBA numbers. I expect Nintendo will replace it by the end of 2016, though it's unclear whether that device will be another standalone handheld or "hybrid" with HDMI output. Vita is doing alright in Japan now but is practically dead everywhere else. Assuming it's at about 8M now, I can see it reaching 12M or so before Sony exits the handheld market.

So, my predictions:

PS4: 90M
Xbone: 40M
Wii U: 15M
3DS: 70M
Vita: 12M


So, everyone, what numbers will you record for future GAF to see?

 

[Courage]

You're nuts if you think that PS4 and Xbox One gap won't close up by the end of the generation. It'll be less than 20M difference.

 

[McDougles]

thisgonnabegood.gif

 

[daman824]

that ps4-bone gap gonna get smaller after all is said and done.

But Sony still has this gen on lock. Wii u is dead.

 

[Aquamarine]

I think 15 million for Wii U is a good number.

Existing sales:

1 month, 14 days: December 31st, 2012: 3.06 million
4 months, 14 days: March 31st, 2013: 3.45 million
7 months, 13 days: June 30th, 2013: 3.61 million
10 months, 13 days: September 30th, 2013: 3.91 million
1 year, 1 month, 14 days: December 31st, 2013: 5.86 million


That's 2.8 million in one year of sales.


If we project it out optimistically:

December 31st, 2013 - 5.86 million

December 31st, 2014 - 10.0 million

December 31st, 2015 - 13.0 million


Then Nintendo will move onto QoL / their next handheld.


December 31st, 2016 - 15.0 million (discontinued)

 

[Jamix012]

You're nuts if you think that PS4 and Xbox One gap won't close up by the end of the generation. It'll be less than 20M difference.

I don't think so? 20m difference would imply they have equal footing in the US, which I don't see happening; because its a given that they'll track behind everywhere else. Either way I'm pretty much exactly with OP on numbers, maybe a bit more conservative.

PS4: 82m
XB1: 38m
Wii U: 14m
3DS: 70m
Vita: 13m

Interestingly, people seem to be predicting pretty low sales for this gen overall. Everyone so far has predicted numbers lower than Gen 6.

 

[SwiftDeath]

[PS4]100M
[XB1] 60M
[WiU] 13M

[3DS] 65M
[Vita] 11.5M

My optimistic predictions

 

[Comandr]

PS4 90M
XB1 70M
Wii U 12M

 

[molnizzle]

You're nuts if you think that PS4 and Xbox One gap won't close up by the end of the generation. It'll be less than 20M difference.

I highly doubt it. The US is still the most important market, but the rest of the world is crucial for LTD numbers. Xbone is dead in the water everywhere else.

 

[GiantEnemyGoomba]

PS4: 80M

Xbone: 50M

Wii U: 15-20M

3DS: 70M

Vita: 13-15M

 

[Courage]

I don't think so? 20m difference would imply they have equal footing in the US, which I don't see happening; because its a given that they'll track behind everywhere else. Either way I'm pretty much exactly with OP on numbers, maybe a bit more conservative.

PS4: 84m
XB1: 38m
Wii U: 14m
3DS: 70m
Vita: 13m

MS is about to aggressively price their console along with 2 Halo games and a Gears of War. It won't outsell the PS4, but it's definitely gonna reduce the lag they had at launch.

I still feel it won't be enough to overtake Sony though.

 

[prag16]

I don't see this thread going anyplace good. But I'll throw my hat into the ring.

PS4: 80mm
xbone: 50mm
Wii U: 20mm

3DS: 65mm
Vita: 12mm

 

[MetroidPrimeRib]

PS4: 80m
XOne: 60m
Wii U: Wild Card, 15-30m, highly unlikely to reach the success of the other two

3DS: 75m
Vita: 20m

 

[Biker19]

You're nuts if you think that PS4 and Xbox One gap won't close up by the end of the generation. It'll be less than 20M difference.

It's going to be much different this time around. Microsoft doesn't have worldwide like Sony does, & I don't see Xbox One getting the same 46+ million owners in the U.S. like 360 did, either.

 

[maneil99]

PS4 -103m
X1 89m
Wii U 11m

3DS -54m
Vita 17m

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

MS is about to aggressively price their console along with 2 Halo games and a Gears of War. It won't outsell the PS4, but it's definitely gonna reduce the lag they had at launch.

I still feel it won't be enough to overtake Sony though.

The only territory where this even matters is the US, and even then it's not that big of a deal. It may get them up to parity with Sony in the US, but Microsoft needed to beat Sony substantially in two major regions (US and UK) AND have a year to a year and a half head start in order to merely break even with them this generation.

There's not a single chance that the gap by the end of the gen will be less than 20 million.

 

[Jamix012]

MS is about to aggressively price their console along with 2 Halo games and a Gears of War. It won't outsell the PS4, but it's definitely gonna reduce the lag they had at launch.

I still feel it won't be enough to overtake Sony though.

I really feel like those games mean little to nothing outside of America for a console that's had a pretty dismal past few months outside of US/UK/Canada/Aus. I think that the XB1 will be somewhat competetive in the US if it drops price E3 and gets its halos and gears of war, but I still think it will lag behind the PS4 and still be irrelevent elsewhere.
The Xbox one is this gen's N64.
...and by that analogy, the Wii U is this gen's Saturn.

Fully expect the PS Vita to outsell the Wii U tbh.

I feel that could go either way. Really depends how long the Vita's lifespan is in Japan and how quickly Nintendo replaces the Wii U. It's not exactly a race I'd be proud of winning though.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

PS4 -103m
X1 89m
Wii U 11m

3DS -54m
Vita 17m

The console market is not going to be bigger now than it was in the prime PS2 era. I have a hard time seeing that.

 

[The Weeknd]

PS4 - 95 Million
Xbox One - 60 Million.
Wii U - 14 million.
PS Vita - 16 million.
3DS - 68 Million.

Fully expect the PS Vita to outsell the Wii U tbh.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I actually like your predictions.
Although I'd probably say 50M for XB1.

...So maybe that means I don't agree.

 

[Indiscipline]

Interesting thread. I'd say:

PS4 - 75M
XBox One - 45M
Wii U - 17M

3DS - 70M
Vita - 18M

The Vita number might me a little high but I have this feeling that Japan will carry it to that if it keeps selling as well over there as it is now

 

[atr0cious]

PS4: 40 M
Xbone: 20 M
Wii U: 15 M

I don't see this generation lasting longer than 2018. The "next-gen" kicked off already a generation behind, and if and when VR picks up, it will be quickly apparent the consoles are not viable for it.

I see MSFT spinning off the Xbox division depending on how this Winter fairs, and if their release schedule is really Halo2 Anniversary, it will be sooner than later. I think Sony is already getting a PS4.5 ready for the Morpheus, that way they can absorb the costs of both, while not having to compromise on VR. Nintendo will again lead the next generation with a handheld release in late 2016 early 2017, followed by the home console in 2017.

 

[coldone]

70M - PS4
50M - Xbone
10M - WiiU
11M - Vita
55M - 3DS

We are going to get a new Wii-2-U soon. Also PS4/Xbone are not going to be in market for long. There will be a lot of cheap Nvidia Tegras and AMD ARM APUs in 20/14nm that could easily compete with PS4,Xbone in 4-5 years

 

[Mass Effect]

You're nuts if you think that PS4 and Xbox One gap won't close up by the end of the generation. It'll be less than 20M difference.

that ps4-bone gap gonna get smaller after all is said and done.

But Sony still has this gen on lock. Wii u is dead.

I don't see how this will be possible unless A.) Microsoft retakes the US on a massive scale (as in 360 levels) or B.) they somehow gain a lot of momentum elsewhere in the world (EU, China), but both of those scenarios seem unlikely.

Even tying in the US is still a big loss for MS. It may not end up being 2:1 like some are predicting, but I just can't see there being less than a 10-15 million difference at minimum (more likely 20-30+ million).

So maybe:

PS4: 90 million
Xbone: 55 million
Wii U: 15 million
3DS: 70 million
Vita: lol

 

[FTF]

PS4: 91M
Xone: 62M
Wii U: 16M
3DS: 70M
Vita: 13M

 

[SwiftDeath]

Hmm the PS4 is currently selling about 55% more units worldwide than the XB1 is [assuming a very very generous 4.5M WW XB1 LTD]

For those who can't believe the gap when all is said and done can't be more than 20M, let's look at a couple PS4 sales projections

PS4 -> 60M | 80M | 100M

With these sales, for a 20M gap or less XB1 has to sell at least

XB1 -> 40M | 60M | 80M

And the relative gap would be

Gap -> 50% | 33% | 25%

I don't understand why anyone would look at the current sales numbers and state that a larger than 20M gap is "nuts", I'd say its more probable than not the gap will be greater than 20M unless something majorly changes and I'm not convinced a pricedrop will be that change

 

[The Weeknd]

PS4: 40 M
Xbone: 20 M
Wii U: 15 M

I don't see this generation lasting longer than 2018. The "next-gen" kicked off already a generation behind, and if and when VR picks up, it will be quickly apparent the consoles are not viable for it.

I see MSFT spinning off the Xbox division depending on how this Winter fairs, and if their release schedule is really Halo2 Anniversary, it will be sooner than later. I think Sony is already getting a PS4.5 ready for the Morpheus, that way they can absorb the costs of both, while not having to compromise on VR. Nintendo will again lead the next generation with a handheld release in late 2016 early 2017, followed by the home console in 2017.

PS4 is GREATLY outpacing the PS3, has sold 7M units to date with no games and at launch price, it's on pace to do 15 million at the end of this year alone thanks to the holiday bump. So after price drops and big games, you expect the PS4 to sell around 8M a year, WITH PRICECUTS, HOLIDAYS, and BIG games. It's only gonna sell 33M more, is this a serious post?

 

[Aaron]

MS is about to aggressively price their console along with 2 Halo games and a Gears of War. It won't outsell the PS4, but it's definitely gonna reduce the lag they had at launch.

I still feel it won't be enough to overtake Sony though.

Halo 4 and the last Gears burned a lot of goodwill for their respective franchises. People will buy consoles for them, but not in big numbers.

 

[UltraGunner]

No way there will be such a disparity between XB1 and PS4 sales by the end of the gen. If I had to guess I'd say it will be a repeat of this gen with the HD twins being more or less "equal" in sales.

 

[Jamix012]

PS4 is GREATLY outpacing the PS3, has sold 7M units to date with no games and at launch price, it's on pace to do 15 million at the end of this year alone thanks to the holiday bump. So after price drops and big games, you expect the PS4 to sell around 8M a year, WITH PRICECUTS, HOLIDAYS, and BIG games. It's only gonna sell 33M more, is this a serious post?

It's outlandish, but he did mention that he expects consoles to be replaced in 2017 which means that he expects the PS4 to sell 11 million a year from now...

 

[jett]

I expect much shrinkage this generation compared to the last one, no thanks to the Wii U being stillborn, but I also highly doubt PS4+One will match PS3+360.

 

[Speedy Blue Dude]

Xbox One: 80M-90M
Playstation 4: 70M-80M
Wii U: 40M-50M

I'm pretty optimistic about this generation overall. I know the Wii U can sort of do a decent job selling as it gets cheaper, the PS4 is destined to sell high numbers, and so is the Xbox One.

 

[Rembrandt]

I don't think so? 20m difference would imply they have equal footing in the US, which I don't see happening; because its a given that they'll track behind everywhere else. Either way I'm pretty much exactly with OP on numbers, maybe a bit more conservative.

PS4: 84m
XB1: 38m
Wii U: 14m
3DS: 70m
Vita: 13m

Interestingly, people seem to be predicting pretty low sales for this gen overall. Everyone so far has predicted numbers lower than Gen 6.

I really doubt the PS4 is gonna sell almost 50 million more than the XB1. Microsoft would have to constantly shoot themselves in the foot for that to happen, imo.

 

[The Weeknd]

No way there will be such a disparity between XB1 and PS4 sales by the end of the gen. If I had to guess I'd say it will be a repeat of this gen with the HD twins being more or less "equal" in sales.

Using what logic? The Xbox brand doesn't have the one year head start, nor the price advantage, and at the end of the gen won't have a bigger lead in the US over Sony. It's pretty clear that there'll be a 10M+ gap between the two, if not more.

 

[Goddard]

You're nuts if you think that PS4 and Xbox One gap won't close up by the end of the generation. It'll be less than 20M difference.

I disagree that it is guaranteed to close up, but 50 million gap is rediculous. My guess would be on 10~20

 

[gtj1092]

You're nuts if you think that PS4 and Xbox One gap won't close up by the end of the generation. It'll be less than 20M difference.

that ps4-bone gap gonna get smaller after all is said and done.

But Sony still has this gen on lock. Wii u is dead.

The only way the gap would shrink is if you think the xb1 will outsell the ps4 at some point. As long as ps4 is ahead ww the gap will grow. It may grow slowly or quicker at times but it will always be growing.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Xbox One: 80M-90M
Playstation 4: 70M-80M
Wii U: 40M-50M

I'm pretty optimistic about this generation overall. I know the Wii U can sort of do a decent job selling as it gets cheaper, the PS4 is destined to sell high numbers, and so is the Xbox One.

You know speedy when all is said and done, it's your Wii U numbers that I find the hardest to believe

 

[SnakeEyes]

I highly doubt it. The US is still the most important market, but the rest of the world is crucial for LTD numbers. Xbone is dead in the water everywhere else.

Quoted for truth.

 

[Aquamarine]

15 million takes into account some optimism from Mario Kart + Smash Bros. + Zelda sales.

A pessimistic approach to Wii U sales would be 10-11 million.

This assumes:

1 month, 14 days: December 31st, 2012: 3.06 million
4 months, 14 days: March 31st, 2013: 3.45 million
7 months, 13 days: June 30th, 2013: 3.61 million
10 months, 13 days: September 30th, 2013: 3.91 million
1 year, 1 month, 14 days: December 31st, 2013: 5.86 million


December 31st, 2012 - December 31st, 2013 = 2.80 million Wii U consoles sold

Take that figure and project it:

5.86 + 2.80 million = 8.66 million as of December 31st, 2014

8.66 + 2.80 million = 11.46 million as of December 31st, 2015

...with the expectation that Nintendo will discontinue Wii U by the end of 2015.


That is, the Wii U never rises above the status quo.

 

[Hatchtag]

PS4: 80-110
Xbone: 65-100 (There's really not enough PS4 or Xbone data to make a guess yet)
Wii U: 9-15
3ds: 50-100 (HUGELY dependant on when they cut it off, Ninty handhelds haven't really had consistant lifespans).
Vita: 10-20

 

[Angelus Errare]

Xbox One 82M
PS4: 71M
Wii U: Discontinued

 

[Tmecha]

Despite the talk of consoles will sell less this gen, I think it will sell more.

100mil+ for PS4 and Xb1. They offer so much more than just games and that will continue to grow.

Cross platform will push sales up too. PS4 with PSnow and Xbox with PC and Wp8.

 

[daman824]

I don't see how this will be possible unless A.) Microsoft retakes the US on a massive scale (as in 360 levels) or B.) they somehow gain a lot of momentum elsewhere in the world (EU, China), but both of those scenarios seem unlikely.

Even tying in the US is still a big loss for MS. It may not end up being 2:1 like some are predicting, but I just can't see there being less than a 10-15 million difference at minimum (more likely 20-30+ million).

So maybe:

PS4: 90 million
Xbone: 55 million
Wii U: 15 million
3DS: 70 million
Vita: lol

I'm guessing 15M difference. 20M at worse.

Anyone comparing the xbone to the wii u is taking crazy pills.

 

[Kyzon]

PS4: 90m
Xbone: 75m
Wii U: Bout 10 consoles or so.

Spoiler

25m

I'm not too sure on handhelds though as I don't really follow the sales of them too hard.

 

[Mass Effect]

Xbox One: 80M-90M
Playstation 4: 70M-80M
Wii U: 40M-50M

I'm pretty optimistic about this generation overall. I know the Wii U can sort of do a decent job selling as it gets cheaper, the PS4 is destined to sell high numbers, and so is the Xbox One.

Please walk me through how you arrived at these numbers.

And Wii U at 40 million? Come on now.

 

[The Weeknd]

Xbox One 82M
PS4: 71M
Wii U: Discontinued

Out of curiousity, why do you think the Xbox One will overtake the PS4

 

[GamerJM]

PS4: 101M
Xbox One: 78M
Wii U: 15M
3DS: 60M
Vita: 10M

 

[Jamix012]

I really doubt the PS4 is gonna sell almost 50 million more than the XB1. Microsoft would have to constantly shoot themselves in the foot for that to happen, imo.

Don't think so personally. They really have no presence in mainland europe or Japan and I don't think they've got themselves a chance of winning anywhere. I also think its decreasing relevance will lead to decreasing sales as people stop caring about the xbox brand as much in the same way people did about the N64 (mass market wise at least.)

Perhaps it could be closer to 40m difference, but I'd probably sooner reduce my PS4 number than increase my Xb1 number.

I'm guessing 15M difference. 20M at worse.

Anyone comparing the xbone to the wii u is taking crazy pills.

Obviously not Wii U numbers wise, but I think there'll be some serious questions being asked next month after NPD, and when and if we ever find out worldwide numbers. I doubt the Xbox 1 will overtake the Wii U before the holidays (at which point it most likely will.)

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Despite the talk of consoles will sell less this gen, I think it will sell more.

100mil+ for PS4 and Xb1. They offer so much more than just games and that will continue to grow.

Cross platform will push sales up too. PS4 with PSnow and Xbox with PC and Wp8.

I think you are underestimating just how much the console market has potentially contracted from the last 2 generations. This is going to be the first generation where we might really see the effect that phones and tablet gaming have on consoles (we've seen it on handhelds). A lot of people (or that type of consumer) that made up those huge numbers during the PS2 and Wii era are not coming back to consoles.

What might make up that difference is if PC gaming continues to grow but it won't be evident in console sales.

 

[atr0cious]

PS4 is GREATLY outpacing the PS3, has sold 7M units to date with no games and at launch price, it's on pace to do 15 million at the end of this year alone thanks to the holiday bump. So after price drops and big games, you expect the PS4 to sell around 8M a year, WITH PRICECUTS, HOLIDAYS, and BIG games. It's only gonna sell 33M more, is this a serious post?

The PS3 still hasn't reached saturation point because of it's price point. I don't see the PS4 dropping in price for awhile, if at all. They have no need as the market leader, especially if all MSFT can do is hope to catch up. And they will want to recoup losses from last generation. And finally, I don't think the graphical leap is going t be the driver of sales this generation, especially if the industries tastes continuing to consolidate. I see steamboxes grabbing a large section group once the OC1 hits.

I think the media has done a very poor job of overselling the next generation leap, and people will settle will not be as attached to their underpowered boxes, as true compelling games are released outside the capability of the consoles. I've seen an argument used against the xbox, that all the multiplats are inherently inferior, so why grab it. When steamboxes it, the same will go for the PS4. Especially IF, and it's a big if, developers start going linux.

But this is just my opinion, no need for attacks.