It's a bit early in the generation to know how things will pan out, but for posterity's sake, can we just have people predict total lifetime numbers here?
With the market contraction that has happened in the last few years, and the collapse of the Wii casual market, the eighth generation is virtually guaranteed to sell less than the seventh. No way is this generations selling 270,000,000 consoles. The question is, how much lower will the number be this time?
I doubt any of the consoles will reach 100M this time. 90M for the PS4 seems right if it keeps up some reasonable momentum over the next few years; current market conditions do not allow for PS2-style ubiquity, but it will still be a great success in its own right. The Xbone is the hardest system to pin down because the trajectory of the US market is still uncertain. I think we can safely say it will not reach the 80M+ that the 360 did, due to the PS4 eating away its market share in the US/UK. Mainland Europe numbers are likely to be considerably diminished too, due to the delayed launch in the Tier 2 countries. I'll say 40M, assuming it sells around 25M in North America.
I may as well predict the handhelds here too. I'll say 70M for the 3DS. Sales have slowed considerably in 2014. and it is therefore unlikely to reach PSP or GBA numbers. I expect Nintendo will replace it by the end of 2016, though it's unclear whether that device will be another standalone handheld or "hybrid" with HDMI output. Vita is doing alright in Japan now but is practically dead everywhere else. Assuming it's at about 8M now, I can see it reaching 12M or so before Sony exits the handheld market.
So, my predictions:
PS4: 90M
Xbone: 40M
Wii U: 15M
3DS: 70M
Vita: 12M
So, everyone, what numbers will you record for future GAF to see?
With the market contraction that has happened in the last few years, and the collapse of the Wii casual market, the eighth generation is virtually guaranteed to sell less than the seventh. No way is this generations selling 270,000,000 consoles. The question is, how much lower will the number be this time?
I doubt any of the consoles will reach 100M this time. 90M for the PS4 seems right if it keeps up some reasonable momentum over the next few years; current market conditions do not allow for PS2-style ubiquity, but it will still be a great success in its own right. The Xbone is the hardest system to pin down because the trajectory of the US market is still uncertain. I think we can safely say it will not reach the 80M+ that the 360 did, due to the PS4 eating away its market share in the US/UK. Mainland Europe numbers are likely to be considerably diminished too, due to the delayed launch in the Tier 2 countries. I'll say 40M, assuming it sells around 25M in North America.
I may as well predict the handhelds here too. I'll say 70M for the 3DS. Sales have slowed considerably in 2014. and it is therefore unlikely to reach PSP or GBA numbers. I expect Nintendo will replace it by the end of 2016, though it's unclear whether that device will be another standalone handheld or "hybrid" with HDMI output. Vita is doing alright in Japan now but is practically dead everywhere else. Assuming it's at about 8M now, I can see it reaching 12M or so before Sony exits the handheld market.
So, my predictions:
PS4: 90M
Xbone: 40M
Wii U: 15M
3DS: 70M
Vita: 12M
So, everyone, what numbers will you record for future GAF to see?