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[Rebel Leader]

In my presentation at SXSW on Saturday night, I picked Microsoft to win next generation because I believe that they will include Skype and a TV tuner in the next Xbox. They have told me nothing, but the progression from Kinect, to voice search through Bing, to the integration of smart glass has led me to consistently "predict" that the next generation Xbox will have a TV tuner built in. The purchase of Skype for $11.5 billion in 2011 was done for a reason, and the fact that Kinect has a camera makes integration of Skype into the next Xbox a logical progression.

I do agree. I also thought microsoft would use skype with kinect after they bought it.

OK, that was the easy part. The TV side takes a bit more imagination.

Adding a TV tuner isn't really that big of a deal. However, the WAY the TV signal is delivered is a big deal. If Microsoft were to sign with one or more cable providers, the signal would not come over cable or satellite; instead, it would come over the Internet. Internet service providers are an impediment to this working (will discuss below), but if data cap issues are set aside for the moment, a cable company would be able to offer IPTV beyond their FCC-regulated region. That means that consumers could get any cable TV service in any jurisdiction (yes, this is U.S.-centric, but bear with me for a minute). Right now, Comcast has around half of U.S. households who subscribe to cable or satellite; if they had no territorial limitations, they could go for all households. That is meaningful to them, and to the guys who they plan to take market share from, so it is only a matter of time before everyone will sign up with Microsoft for this, assuming I'm right. I've been saying this for close to two years, and I think the technology has evolved to the point where this can happen with the next console.

Assuming I'm right, there are two advantages to the cable companies: first, the Xbox replaces the cable box (or at least, the primary box); and second, the cable company can sell service outside of its regulated area, since it will be selling IPTV. Choice is good for consumers, so the government will favor this outcome. It's an open question whether Microsoft can route the TV signal from the Xbox to other televisions in the same household wirelessly, but it seems that they could do so by attaching some sort of dongle to the other television, and trick the TV into thinking it was connected to a cable box. The cable company saves capital (no cable boxes to build), operating expense (no installation or service call), and ultimately can attract more customers.

The trick to this working is to get the ISPs to lift data caps. That's a tall order, but for those of you old enough to remember, cellular service used to work the same way as cable television worked, with carriers assigned certain regions. That all changed a few years ago, and roaming charges evaporated as if by magic. In order for that to happen, the carriers had to agree to carry one another's service on their proprietary networks. It worked, and I think something similar will happen with ISPs if cable television becomes IPTV. The good news for ISPs is that IPTV will drive even greater adoption of broadband, and will make broadband more essential, so I think that if the next generation Xbox is an IPTV tuner, we'll see a lot of happy cable companies and ISPs.

That will be a problem.

Though I do like this concept, if I'm reading and understanding correctly.

Why is this a killer app? Because television can go from a static delivery with a handful of programs on demand to a fully on-demand experience. If people are willing to pay, there is no reason why every episode of every TV show ever broadcast couldn't be pulled up and viewed on demand. This can absolutely happen with IPTV, and if a cable company has the rights to the programming, it is likely to happen.

The essential component of all of this is that the cable company sees the potential to sign up its customers to a long-term, high subscription price contract. This is similar to what mobile phone carriers saw when smart phones debuted, where data plans averaged $100 per month, and users got a subsidized smart phone in exchange for a two-year contract. I think we'll see the same thing with the next Xbox (if I'm right about the TV tuner): a subsidized console in exchange for a two-year cable TV contract. Other potential sources of subsidies are Microsoft themselves (subsidized console for a two-year subscription to XBL, at $20 - 30/month but including IPTV, XBL Gold and Skype for free) and ISPs (maybe a two-year broadband contract at $60/month or more).

Again, the 16 year-old who talks his parents into extending their current cable TV subscription or their broadband subscription for two years will end up with a cheap console. That makes Microsoft the favorite (for now), in my view.

Some of you asked why I had "predictions" now, instead of waiting for all of the details on pricing, features, specs and launch date to be announced? The answer is that SXSW was last weekend, and I had to write something. I may be wrong, but it's my best thinking as of now. Once we learn the details of the next Xbox, I'll modify my "predictions".

Hope that helps some of you to understand my madness a bit better.

I think microsoft are tested the waters with the "Xbox 360 deal: $99 with 2-year Xbox Live Gold contract" awhile back


Though I don't think they will be killer apps.

 

[famousmortimer]

If these non game features make the Durango "the winner" of next gen do we, a videogame forum, really care? We didn't seem to care that much that the wii "won" this gen...

 

[XtremeXpider]

i want to understand what you're saying

Pachter is talking about generic people, gafers are talking as "core" gamers. If you are seeing things as a gamer, you will not see why Skype or TV things can be a selling point.

 

[Interfectum]

Poor reading comprehension.

If the teenager who wants the next gen console can sell the idea of the console benefiting the entire family, simply that being a feasible situation alone will raise chances of raising hardware sales. Grandma could be on her Ipad or computer or whatever while the 16 year old and his family are using the Durango to chat with her.

The Durango being a swiss army knife for consumers is the draw, Skype is just one of the tools.

He's not saying Skype is 'just one of the tools.' He's saying its a killer app, as in people will buy the system specifically for Skype video chat. The only way that makes sense in his example is if they loved video chat with grandma so much they bought her an xbox too... because chances are that 16 year old kid owns an xbox because of video games, not a video chat app.

 

[SpartanN92]

I use chat roulette for my video calls. Never can seem to connect to who I meant to, and I've met a lot of strange people there. Made a few friends.

 

[MormaPope]

The OP does float the theory that it would be a compelling reason to buy Grandma a games console. Not just on the 'family-with-teenager' side.

If the next Xbox has a simple UI and you can basically talk to it to get where you need to go, Grandma might be able to use it. Ease of use and a wide array of features could make it a decent gift for Grandma, but it would need a lot more than Skype and such to make that possible.

He's not saying Skype is 'just one of the tools.' He's saying its a killer app, as in people will buy the system specifically for Skype video chat. The only way that makes sense in his example is if they loved video chat with grandma so much they bought her an xbox too... because chances are that 16 year old kid owns an xbox because of video games, not a video chat app.

Once again, he may be calling it a killer app, but his main point was that 16 year old telling his family about Skype and how their family can use it. You can use Skype as a main/home phone line, what if the entire family used Skype as the main way of calling people and such?

It seems like you have a pretty narrow thought process when it comes to this discussion, he didn't say the 16 year old wanted the next Xbox because of Skype.

 

[vasametropolis]

D...Doesn't Wii U have video chat and a Tvii?

Apparently it doesn't.

I think you are missing the point where the new xbox aims to become the industry standard box that is provided to you, subsidized by your cable/internet provider. There is always a difference between something that can do something versus something that was designed to do it.

 

[Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew]

As soon as I can get a 720 call from one of my friends online and it sends it to my Windows Phone, then I am all for it.

This. This is the advantage and the feature that a lot of people will use once they experience it. Youtube pairing with phone looked and sounded silly at first, but now that's the only way I use it on my PS3.

 

[Satchel]

I think there are a LOT of you that need to read Michaels post more thoroughly.

He's not saying Grandma's will line up for Skype on Xbox.

He's saying that kids will use things like Skype and TV to convince their families to buy the new Xbox. World of difference there.

 

[beast786]

As an addendum to my last post, I actually think video calling on the TV is less valuable than on a personal device like a tablet or phone.

Generally speaking my family uses facetime in a way that lets them bring someone into a room with them, so to speak, and let them chat while they're doing other things - very typically I'll facetime my parents while they're watching TV, for example, so we can chat along as if we were all really in the livingroom together. It's a different dynamic than requiring exclusive attention - it's more natural in a way. Conversation ebbs and flows. There's no pressure to keep up a conversation because you're tying up a TV. Or to end a call to free up the big screen.

Now, you can argue that Skype on a console could be put in a little window while people watch something else, but it means audio is sharing the same output channels as the TV, and obscures part of the TV for everyone in the room.

And a neat thing about tablet/phone facetime is being able to 'pick someone up' and bring them into another room when you go make a cup of tea or need some privacy.

All these different dynamics afforded in a personal device context are way more valuable than the value of a wider-angle camera IMO.

Nicely put.

 

[RurouniZel]

Apparently it doesn't.

Huh.

Well, glad that's cleared up.

 

[legacyzero]

I said GAT DAMN, PAC ATTACK INDEED!

Not interested in Skype. But TB tuner? Hmmmm

 

[Meier]

And if that started to move Durangos someone would make something like it but strip out the game features and undercut them.

Very feasible. I think the selling point in this case would be the Skype functionality as everyone in business has it. I know I'm going on a call in 30 minutes to Australia via Skype. Who knows, we'll see how it pans out. Just another scenario where that could be a big selling point for MS.

Much of it may depend on whether or not the new Kinect offers 720p/1080p or some other sort of high resolution.

 

[grimshawish]

Problem Michael I feel is you are not taking into account the changing marketplace. Just because the Xbox has Skype doesn't mean its only competing against Nintendo/Sony hardware on this. Its competing with a wider range of devices that are far cheaper.

People won't by the Durango for Skype.

The TV side isn't a killer app either; I have Virgin Media for this; I watch BBC iPlayer all the time and from a wide range of devices. I won't buy a Durango for this.

Instead putting these features on their system is a way to get you to use their software rather than a competitors. But its not why you buy a Durango.

 

[CamHostage]

{about Skype}
So why isn't this a big deal for the Wii U? The Wii U is also capable of doing video conferencing under the same conditions as you've outlined here (wide-angle camera lens, generally available in the living room, pretty easy to use). Technically it is more convenient with the Wii U since the camera is built into the Wii U Gamepad, which can be moved around and adjusted for optimal placement, while the camera for the upcoming Microsoft console will theoretically be built into the console itself so only one viewing angle will be available (unless you don't mind picking up your console and moving it around while it is plugged into the wall).

Well, you could say the same thing about the PS2 with Eyetoy Chat...

The thing that makes Skype a possible killer app is because it's not proprietary, Skype is everywhere. Grandma doesn't have to have a Wii U to call you.

Also, Grandma can call you with Skype. It depends on the always-online features, but the device itself would I'm assuming have some way of alerting you no matter if the TV is on or not (I'm not sure if the Wii U does that, probably not right?) The whole Skype app feature possibility really only holds its promise if it's as easy and reliable as a phone, so far the tablet and smartphone apps have come the closest but even they don't autoboot/force to stay resident and have to rely on the on/off mechanics as well as charge state of the system; a home box that can alert you to a Skype call in any condition would be huge.

...Still, I'm seeing no evidence why the next Xbox is the device that will both solve all those challenges and also cross over to the mainstream. Like I said, Roku could easily add a camera (or make a version with an embedded camera) and the job would be done for a fifth the price. Apple TV and Google TV also are hot on the subject, and Smart TVs are getting into cameras and voice integration too.

(Still, PS3 is the biggest Netflix box on the market, so nobody should rule out even remote possibilities.)

 

[Interfectum]

I think there are a LOT of you that need to read Michaels post more thoroughly.

He's not saying Grandma's will line up for Skype on Xbox.

He's saying that kids will use things like Skype and TV to convince their families to buy the new Xbox. World of difference there.

He said:

I think it's even a compelling reason to buy a console for grandma, so she can video chat with her grandkids, and it conveniently gives the 16 year-old something to do when he's forced to visit grandma.

 

[Hero]

Nobody is going to go out and buy a 400-500 dollar console just so they can Skype. Especially considering it'll probably be behind the Xbox Live Gold pay-wall barrier. Not saying that nobody will use it since people clearly would if they already had the system but internet video chat is nothing new. Skype is readily available on most consumer electronics and Apple even offers Facetime.

 

[bigdaddygamebot]

The next XBox isn't going to be cheaper than a Nexus 7.

How much is a Nexus 7?

I'll be really surprised if Microsoft doesn't offering significantly subsidized consoles if you sign up for a contract.

 

[JaggedSac]

These arguments are completely silly. Not understanding the mass appeal of it in an entertainment hub is silly. No one will use their Vita for skype especially when it'll require data/wifi. On Xbox however, you are always connected to the internet. Not seeing the great advantages and benefits of having Skype exclusive to Xbox is also silly.

I agree, an always on device in the hub of the house is basically like a new landline. They just need a speaker in the actual box so that you don't need the tv or receiver on to let someone know they are being called. Of course this could be turned off via an option, but for those that wanted it, it would be nice.

And I agree with others, Skype is in no way a system selling feature in my opinion. But it certainly adds value.

 

[gofreak]

If the next Xbox has a simple UI and you can basically talk to it to get where you need to go, Grandma might be able to use it. Ease of use and a wide array of features could make it a decent gift for Grandma, but it would need a lot more than Skype and such to make that possible.

Right. But there's a metric tonne of competition here already, that have huge headstarts.

And on a separate note, I'd argue the whole 'Grandma watches TV!' thing is a reason why she'd actually prefer a second screen for this stuff. My parents like FaceTime because they can put 'me' anywhere in the room, chat to me there, while watching TV - or one of them can plug headphones in if the other wants less (audio) interruption to the TV, or take me elsewhere, out of the room if needs be. It's a superior setup for the TV watcher IMO.

 

[phosphor112]

1) Please stop insulting Pachter. He might not always be right (or even 50%...) but his input has value, he has his predictions as well...

2) To Pachter, that "IPTV" that you call doesn't need a TV tuner. One of our posters here on Gaf has been going on and on for the past several years about how Sony can just update their webkit and start getting "TV" channels through the console via internet. If Xbox will have it, PS4 will have it...

3) An ipad or small tablet is easier to use than setting up a console on a TV for skype, and you know what? People already do that. I know several people that buy their grandparents tablets for video chatting all the time. MS would be "late" to the market with the xbox AND it would have the disadvantage of being a TV only app.

 

[androvsky]

Oh fuck me! I misread his post. Sorry. I read it as "IS" and not "ISN'T". I'll rephrase: the nextbox is going to be more than $200.

Yeah, I figured one of us was misreading something. Agreed!

I have to say using a tablet for Skype is probably going to be easier than the XBox. Newer Android tablets have voice recognition integrated already anyway, and I'd be shocked if it's terribly complicated on iPads.

I will grant Pachter that on the family's (not Grandma's) side of things, it's easier to get the whole family in front of the camera at once if it's on the TV instead of a tablet. I guess the next question is, will that one use case be enough to be a killer app? Will the PS4 not have Skype despite the Vita using it?

How much is a Nexus 7?

I'll be really surprised if Microsoft doesn't offering significantly subsidized consoles if you sign up for a contract.

A Nexus 7 is $199. No subsidy, no subscription needed to use online features. It's just $199. And yes, a fair number of consumers even in the U.S. are capable of telling the difference between a subsidized system that requires a monthly payment and one that does not.

 

[bill0527]

Thank you Michael for taking the time to post your reasoning.

I think you make some valid points, but I am not sure if Skype and the TV tuner are going to be killer apps.

The TV Tuner scenario you predict might be a little ahead of its time because it will require massive cooperation and agreements between cable and ISPs. I don't see something like this happening in the next 1-2 years so the benefit of something like this will not come until late in the cycle.

The next Xbox could however, use a dongle or other small receiver box to send its content to other televisions in your house. That would be an immediate benefit of the TV tuner in the box. My regional cable company already offers something similar called 'ultra TV'. The way it works is that you get one big Gateway media box. This is your cable modem, router, and DVR all in one. You can rent up to 6 very small media receivers to hook into the other TVs in your house. The main Gateway box then distributes any content requested from those receivers. Everyone gets their own DVR, everyone gets their own content, all streamed from one box.

The reason I am not sure about Skype is that we have heard this before. They integrated Facebook Twitter and you could communicate to everyone from your big comfy couch but nobody cared. My feeling is that similar to Facebook and Twitter, people want to use Skype on their mobile devices and not from the big couch. Grandma is more likely to use Skype from her phone or tablet, that she already owns, than she is to invest in a $400 box just so that she can do it from the TV. The world has gone mobile.

I see these things as really being nothing more than value-added apps rather than the killer apps that make you want to run out and purchase an expensive box.

 

[Satchel]

He said:

Point remains.

Many here are talking about how grandmas wont want to buy an Xbox. I don't think he said they would. As you even pointed out.

 

[MormaPope]

He said:

You keep focusing on one sorta silly thing he said instead of what he said as a whole.

 

[kitch9]

The last thing I want near the end of a tight round of BF3 is grandma trying to buzz me and making me feel guilty by ignoring her as I know she'll be banging the remote thinking its not working....

Sorry grandma....

My PS3 has a TV Tuner by the way, I'm not feeling the killer thing....

 

[Shambles]

If the advantage is putting it behind a paywall then god help us.

They'll put it behind a paywall and ad even more adverts to it than they've already done to the client since buying it out.

 

[madmackem]

I just can get my head around skype being put forward as some killa app for a games console. You can already do it with consoles now and nobody cared, its already on smart devices if you want it, i think its bonkers it wont swing anyone to get a next gen games machine imho.

 

[JaggedSac]

Right. But there's a metric tonne of competition here already, that have huge headstarts.

And on a separate note, I'd argue the whole 'Grandma watches TV!' thing is a reason why she'd actually prefer a second screen for this stuff. My parents like FaceTime because they can put 'me' anywhere in the room, chat to me there, while watching TV - or one of them can plug headphones in if the other wants no interruption to the TV, or take me elsewhere, out of the room if needs be. It's a superior setup for the TV watcher IMO.

Picture in picture overlays.

 

[CengizMan]

I absolutely expect Microsoft to end the third place, if they still ask a fee for online gaming and premium features (even though I don't agree with what they call a premium feature, like Internet Explorer).

I see it this way: If Microsoft fails to make the next Xbox backwards compatible (including online features like friends and achievements), there is no real reason to not look at what other systems have to offer. The moment people with common sense look at what the Wii U and probably the Playstation 4 have to offer for free, they will switch systems. People will realize that the features they have been paying for are actually free.

When comparing these services with the Xbox LIVE service, I don't see a way they can justify the pricing for features that, after comparison, aren't so premium after all. And I expect them to make Skype a 'premium' feature that you have to pay for to access it on your next Xbox. Another reason I don't expect Skype to be the killer app you expect it to be, is because it is already available on almost every device. Would that investment in a new console for a couple of hundred bucks really be worth Skype, if I also can just use it for free on my mobile phone?

If they do manage to make the next Xbox backwards compatible, then it is more likely for people to stick with the brand, because all of their precious content is with them anyways and will stay usable.

Xbox LIVE as it is already a bit poor in Europe, comparing with its American counterpart. The TV tuner is, like you already said, too US-centric.

 

[The Omega Man]

Thats the job for the grand kids to do when they are visiting grandma.

the minute the grand kids leave grandma's house disaster will ensue, 3 remote controllers, live gold subscriptions, tv video 3 or 4? heeeeeeeeeelp!

I really really think Pachter is over estimating these features.

 

[BibiMaghoo]

That sounds all very nice.

It also sounds exxpensive. I wonder what the Live fee will be?

Surely they will have to increase it, if taking on more costs for the service.

 

[FStop7]

Seeing a TV tuner as important seems like a vestigial view of the future.

What I mean is this.

Remember the Star Trek PADD? People are always making comparisons of the PADD device to the iPad of today. The thing is, the people who envisioned the PADD were still anchored to outdated thinking. There were scenes of people carrying stacks of PADD devices in the way a person would carry a stack of books. That's obsolete - a current day tablet can hold thousands of books' worth of data. You don't need a stack of them. So why would you in the future? Because the people who came up with that scene in the late 1980s were still thinking within the bounds of the technology of their time. A TV tuner is the same thing. Why do we need TV tuners in the age of Netflix, Amazon, HBO Go, etc? It's vestigial thinking.

 

[Raide]

3) An ipad or small tablet is easier to use than setting up a console on a TV for skype, and you know what? People already do that. I know several people that buy their grandparents tablets for video chatting all the time. MS would be "late" to the market with the xbox AND it would have the disadvantage of being a TV only app.

What if MS used a sub $200 Windows 8 Phone to use and Skype between people using the 720 and someone else on a PC? I think people are too wrapped up in the 720 just being the only box. We can already see the direction MS is heading with their Windows 8 stuff and things like SmartGlass.

 

[Maztorre]

if Kinect can make the Xbox 3 the iPad for the living room it could be big but it could also work against it.

The thing is, the iPad of the living room is...bringing your iPad into the living room. At this point I can really only see the likes of Apple or Amazon successfully bridging their tablet solution into a living room experience through concerted effort with an expanded AppleTV type device. Even then I can only see it happening if they launch it with a dedicated app that will aggregate all available TV/movie content you have subscriptions for into an easy to use on-demand programme guide. I also don't really get the desire for Microsoft to integrate with "old" media through a TV tuner when media consumption habits are changing towards on-demand content that is more and more commonly available on every type of device anyway.

As for Skype, I don't know about the US but I can't think of a situation as a UK resident where I would want to make anything more than a handful of calls a) using video, and b) through a camera pointing at everyone on the sofa in my living room. It just seems completely at odds with the "culture" of typical living room usage to invite people to gawk at your whole family during a call. Smartphone/tablet form factors seem like the best use-case for video calling since it's more personal and portable.

Overall these all seem to be coming very late to the party in terms of changing media consumption habits. This doesn't even include the changes to gaming, where the AAA model has broken down to a handful of giant no-risk releases a year among a number of bombs, while "2nd generation" indies are crowdfunding to release on every available platform (often even forgoing console releases), and user-generated content is coming back to the forefront in a way I haven't seen since Quakeworld/Half-Life 1 mods. I'm not seeing anything addressing this from either Sony or Microsoft yet, and Share buttons and Kinect draped over another iteration of walled gardens won't cut it, I think.

 

[BurnOutBrighter]

Haha. No one cares about TV video calls.

 

[shandy706]

Lifting data caps is like opening a can of worms. Once that happens, the toothpaste is out of the bottle. Are ISPs going to do that in 2013? I don't know, but I have serious doubts.

There are no "data caps" for the two local cable providers (internet) near me.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Skype: Not sure if this is a killer app. Seems more like a bullet point to me. The 16 year old can just as easily sell his grandma a PS4, and let her video chat from there. Or a WiiU which could probably be easier with the touch controls (voice recog isn't perfect). Hell, the WiiU is probably WAY more grandma friendly than the Xbox 720.

As for teens using skype, not sure how popular it is using that stuff on your console. I mean, it is there already on your 360. Hell, it's everywhere. I doubt Xboxs will be flying off shelves because of it, especially if its behind a paywall (and come on, IE is behind a paywall, so it probably will).

TV Tuner: If everything you say is true/possible, that seems really cool. But how big will the be outside United States? Will Canada get the same treatment? What about Poland? Australia? Italy? France?

Can MS negotiate deals with all these countries? Or is the TV tuner a universal thing that will work across all countries? Or will they just be left in the dust? I'm not sure all ISP's will be so eager to pay ball.


A great write up though.

 

[XtremeXpider]

Haha. No one in neogaf cares about TV video calls.

Fixed.

 

[madmackem]

You can almost see the gamestop/bestbuy/game/graingergames sales pitch, you can skype on your xbox 720, customer you mean like face time on my ipad. Stumped.

 

[coldfoot]

Is it the actual, real, verified Michael Pachter who started this thread? I read all the posts and still have a hard time deciding yes or not. Can we "verify" actual insiders with a special color tag sort of like Twitter?
Anyway here are my rebuttals:
1. A $399 Xbox with Skype + a monthly sub is not going to work for grandma, because she already has an iPad and it's very easy to use, and does not require a subscription.
2. Grandma already has a TV tuner and even Apple with their massive finances failed to convince TV networks to make their programming available in such a way that does not require you to pay per episode, so MS won't be able to do it either.

 

[gofreak]

Picture in picture overlays.

Yeah, I tapped on that in a prior post.

It obscures the picture.

Picture-in-picture or full screen, it forces everyone in the room to see my mug when I call. A second screen with the option to sling the picture to a TV is FAR superior IMO.

My mother can chat to me while she keeps an eye on the TV and while my Dad watches the TV in a more engaged manner also, with no visual interruption for him. It's like two people quietly talking in one corner while someone else is watching TV, with one of the conversation participants having an eye on the TV also. He can dip in and out of the conversation with me, and return full focus to the TV when he wants. That's the typical dynamic in my family and the second screen accommodates this perfectly. I'm a 'portable' part of the room, not a fixed part on top of your TV.

Not to mention the audio localisation. On facetime the sound is already very natural, and they can put 'me' wherever they want in the room. Or go private.

There's all sorts of subtle dynamics and advantages to the tablet/'facetime' setup that become apparent once you start using it. It's the closest thing I've ever used to bringing someone into the room with you, who's physically somewhere else. Some of that magic would be lost if it was tied to the TV, IMO. And the option to sling to the TV with a little more equipment is there if you want.

 

[phosphor112]

What if MS used a sub $200 Windows 8 Phone to use and Skype between people using the 720 and someone else on a PC? I think people are too wrapped up in the 720 just being the only box. We can already see the direction MS is heading with their Windows 8 stuff and things like SmartGlass.

Phone != Tablet.

Giving an old couple an iPad with a large interface that's easy to read and navigate is completely different from giving them a phone that is smart and has apps.

iPad is a "computer replacement' iPhone is not.

 

[jlevel13]

I see these things as really being nothing more than value-added apps rather than the killer apps that make you want to run out and purchase an expensive box.

Exactly. That's the main problem with these predictions. Even if both happen (and I seriously doubt the IPTV dreams of access to every old TV show ever - rights nightmare & microsoft making some kind of agreement with major TV and cable or satellite companies), they just aren't "killer apps" that would make masses of people rush out to buy the console that supports them (or sign up for an expensive contract to have that console).

 

[MormaPope]

Skype: Not sure if this is a killer app. Seems more like a bullet point to me. The 16 year old can just as easily sell his grandma a PS4, and let her video chat from there. Or a WiiU which could probably be easier with the touch controls (voice recog isn't perfect). Hell, the WiiU is probably WAY more grandma friendly than the Xbox 720.

As for teens using skype, not sure how popular it is using that stuff on your console. I mean, it is there already on your 360. Hell, it's everywhere. I doubt Xboxs will be flying off shelves because of it, especially if its behind a paywall (and come on, IE is behind a paywall, so it probably will).

TV Tuner: If everything you say is true/possible, that seems really cool. But how big will the be outside United States? Will Canada get the same treatment? What about Poland? Australia? Italy? France?

Can MS negotiate deals with all these countries? Or is the TV tuner a universal thing that will work across all countries? Or will they just be left in the dust? I'm not sure all ISP's will be so eager to pay ball.

I like how you know the Durango's UI looks and such, pretty awesome insider info. And Skype isn't on the 360.

 

[Purexed]

Interesting analysis, but I find it hard to believe that Skype and a TV Tuner will be the aspects that tip the balance in Microsoft's direction. Some amateur armchair analysis below

Skype is on virtually every platform that had a CPU and a camera. If anything, Apple's army of iDevices has successfully captured the "grandma" angle. When you talk about broadcasting an entire living room, you aren't having the intimate experience that someone interested in video chat would want. Plus if your grandmas are anything like the ones I have, they appreciate visits especially when geography is not an issue The portability of all the mobile devices strike me as being a better fit for Skype; can't imagine Skype on a console being next level.

The TV Tuner impact could be feasible assuming the current bandwidth constraints were not a factor. One, bandwidth caps don't seem to be going anywhere soon as its a growing revenue stream. Two, internet speeds are not fast enough to in the United States to guarantee the fast and live broadcasting of HD video with no disruption, lagging, or stuttering. My DirecTV feed is uninterrupted 99.9% of the time, and until Google Fiber gets mainstream adoption, internet streaming will have its flaws. Hell. I have a 35MB downstream and I still get occasional buffering on HD video from YouTube. Three, why would the providers hitch their wagon to Microsoft exclusively when they can cut deals with all the major hardware providers?

Not saying the original idea doesn't merit serious discussion, but it's way too premature to speculate on who's winning anything with so many unknowns.

 

[Doffen]

Thanks for sharing your predictions, Michael. Always interesting to read/listen.

That sounds all very nice.

It also sounds exxpensive. I wonder what the Live fee will be?

Surely they will have to increase it, if taking on more costs for the service.

They could break into different subscription levels: Silver, Gold, Platinum and Diamond.
Offering different levels of subscription will not be a new feature for Microsoft Accounts, in other words; easy to implant.

 

[TGO]

My TV has Skype and a TV turner
That said I'm sure the PS4 will have Skype, PS3 already did that TV turner thing in Europe
I really doubt anyone will care if the PS4 or 720 has them
Plus who is gonna want a a TV turner in their console if they have Sky?

 

[Beaulieu]

Very interesting analysis OP
This sucks for me, being in canada and having riduclous internet costs.
Not to talk about my 2 dead grandmothers.

 

[Eclectic Jabber Monkey]

As for T.V.

America is the wild fuckin west when it comes to deals with cable providers. Here in Canada, shit is locked down tight and cable companies are primarily the internet companies. They don't give a shit about what Microsoft has planned and they LOVE their bandwidth caps.

I use Shaw as my ISP, but right now with Telus you can use your Xbox as a TV tuner/PVR of some sort. If I had that option available to me as a Shaw user I would definitely give it a try.

http://telus.com/content/tv/optik/services-hardware/hardware.jsp

The WiiU's TVii app also shows that console makers are working with cable/ISP companies.

http://www.nintendo.com/wiiu/built-in-software/#/tvii

Lots of people I know have or are thinking of dropping their cable subscriptions. I believe that if cable companies think that working with console makers will help them keep customers they will do it.