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[BurntPork]

I gotcha now. I guess for me part of it is that I don't believe MS and Sony will make it to 2014. We already have rumors where people have been working on the new Xbox already (not just devs, but people hired by MS). Then there was the "PS4 in 18mos." rumor. So that would eliminate the power jump you are talking about. But even if that were the case, there would be no need for Nintendo to step back in power when they could enjoy a roughly 18-month window of being the most powerful console before the other two came out. And once they began hitting their stride, Nintendo would be about ready to release their next console.

All of this is true, but my biggest fear is that Nintendo will miss the mark even more than that and offer a console that's only 3x the current gen while MS and Sony will likely be going for at least 9x. My previous minimum estimate was 6-7x for PS4/XB3, so seeing that AMD managed to create such an amazing efficient GPU threw me for a loop.

 

[Lonely1]

There always something better, more efficient, more powerful, around the corner.

 

[AceBandage]

There always something better, more efficient, more powerful, around the corner.

Technology, how does it work?

 

[bgassassin]

All of this is true, but my biggest fear is that Nintendo will miss the mark even more than that and offer a console that's only 3x the current gen while MS and Sony will likely be going for at least 9x. My previous minimum estimate was 6-7x for PS4/XB3, so seeing that AMD managed to create such an amazing efficient GPU threw me for a loop.

But "fear" doesn't provide a foundation for proper logic and analysis. Emotion has to be kept in check or else a person will be all over the place when making points. *hint* *hint*

You should also acknowledge the power efficiency of a 7000 doesn't work one way. MS and Sony (if they use it) would benefit, but so would Nintendo.

 

[AmFreak]

Okay, I'll answer this first.

I'm thinking that Nintendo needs to has to be at least half as powerful as the other next-gen consoles to stand a chance of getting most ports

So you think if the oter consoles are 2,1 or 2,2 x as powerfull the Wii U will get no ports? Why? If the Wii U gets ports depends solely on it's market penetration or better said it's sales of ports. I think u widely overestimate what difference 2 times the power makes. Wii U will be x times as powerfull as PS3 or 360 and Wii U will get a ton of ports from them besides the power difference.

 

[TunaLover]

Kinda off topic, but...
After PS3 launch, no one thought that Sony could use the "going all out" route again with Vita, the fact they will recoup cost after 2 or so years is frightening, seeing the actual state of handheld market.

I can see Sony going all out again with PS4, even when it doesn´t make too much sense due their financial position.

 

[guek]

Kinda off topic, but...
After PS3 launch, no one thought that Sony could use the "going all out" route again with Vita, the fact they will recoup cost after 2 or so years is frightening, seeing the actual state of handheld market.

I can see Sony going all out again with PS4, even when it doesn´t make too much sense due their financial position.

I hope they do and I hope it buries them.

 

[AceBandage]

Kinda off topic, but...
After PS3 launch, no one thought that Sony could use the "going all out" route again with Vita, the fact they will recoup cost after 2 or so years is frightening, seeing the actual state of handheld market.

I can see Sony going all out again with PS4, even when it doesn´t make too much sense due their financial position.

Err, Vita ISN"T going all out...
It's using pretty standard parts.


The thing is, mobile tech has been making gigantic leaps lately.

 

[BurntPork]

But "fear" doesn't provide a foundation for proper logic and analysis. Emotion has to be kept in check or else a person will be all over the place when making points. *hint* *hint*

You should also acknowledge the power efficiency of a 7000 doesn't work one way. MS and Sony (if they use it) would benefit, but so would Nintendo.

Yes, but the question is: Will Nintendo take advantage of that benefit? They dropped the ball with 3DS, so I think it's possible that they won't. Ideally, they'd use a Thames core cut down to 960SPs, imo. I just have doubts that they'll realize that it's time to be aggressive, not to play it safe like they did with Wii.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

man what the heck do we have to talk about in this thread that has the slightest remote connection to the WiiU?

 

[bgassassin]

Kinda off topic, but...
After PS3 launch, no one thought that Sony could use the "going all out" route again with Vita, the fact they will recoup cost after 2 or so years is frightening, seeing the actual state of handheld market.

I can see Sony going all out again with PS4, even when it doesn´t make too much sense due their financial position.

Ace said the same thing I was going to say. I see them doing for PS4 what they did with Vita. Setting a wholesale price target and doing everything they can to build the console at that target.

Yes, but the question is: Will Nintendo take advantage of that benefit? They dropped the ball with 3DS, so I think it's possible that they won't. Ideally, they'd use a Thames core cut down to 960SPs, imo. I just have doubts that they'll realize that it's time to be aggressive, not to play it safe like they did with Wii.

Handhelds are a pretty different tangent though. The amount people are willing to spend on them will have a big affect on what can be done. Also I don't think they use odd numbered clusters. 14 (896) is a more reasonable number and within the count range of a 4870. I think the Wii slow down and the realizing that non-gamers don't buy games on a consistent basis woke them up.

 

[guek]

man what the heck do we have to talk about in this thread that has the slightest remote connection to the WiiU?

BS hypotheticals while we wait for iwata to drop the bomb?

I'm predicting it right now, the wii U is going to be like a 360 duct taped to a PS3 duct taped to a coleco vision

 

[TheExplodingHead]

@BurntPork: I think you're a bit too hung up on the idea that system specs in relation to 360/PS3 successors will determine the success factor of the Wii U. Aligned with Nintendo's thinking of the hardware goals I find it hard to believe they'd go much further than necessary (basically a 4000x-5000x performance comparison on paper). Which looking at their implied and obvious company goals fits great. I don't think we largely need to worry about the power gap, considering the thirst for multiplats in general these days among dev's, if it can keep a overall PS2 or even Dreamcast power gap (somewhat bad comparison architecturally speaking) and competitive sales, Nintendo is fine and it's customers happy.

 

[MadOdorMachine]

Unless Sony or Microsoft come out with a full unveiling, I don't expect a new system from them until 2014 at the earliest. The 360 and PS3 still have some life left in them, but the Wii is on it's last legs. Nintendo has to release a new system. Unfortunately, the economy is their biggest competition. If they don't get the price low - like $250 - they risk low sales. If the economy tanks and people have less disposable income, they aren't going to be as willing to spend their money unless some magical mass appeal happens like it did with the Wii. It's also likely Sony and Microsoft will cut prices when the Wii U is released. It's a fine line to tread and 2012 is going to be very interesting. I really hope Nintendo is taking the economy into consideration especially after the 3DS.

 

[guek]

As long as nintendo targets a modest leap using something like a 4870, I think they'll be A-OK pretty much no matter what.

Even if Sony/MS built a monster machine using modern parts, most games would still be able to scale down. If Sony/MS wait until 2014 or late 2013 to make huge leap over current consoles, nintendo will have a big enough installed base that most companies will build games with the wii U in mind anyway. The difference between the wii U and wii as far as a development platform goes will be scalability.

Plus metroid/zelda/mario in 1080p is going to sell to a ton of gamers

 

[AzaK]

I think the Wii slow down and the realizing that non-gamers don't buy games on a consistent basis woke them up.

I'm with you on this one. Also add in the fact that a certain amount of their handheld market is now satisfied by smart phones and they can't ignore those core gamers and games anymore. Something that's pretty evident by the 3DS I think. Much more core oriented so far and the whole fact that the main screen is now the top screen means touch gaming like the DS had is probably not going to be as common.

Plus metroid/zelda/mario in 1080p is going to sell to a ton of gamers

I think there's always that staple of Nintendo nerds like myself that will buy their console for these titles, so they already have a set market that they can rely on. How big that is I'm not sure anymore though (20-30 mill??) It's all those other people they need to convince to move over, or get the Wii's blue-ocean audience to upgrade in order to have the success they did this generation.

I really do wonder what their target #'s and approach is going to be. Are they thinking they can get as high as Wii again this time around or more in the modest range like the P60. Will be interesting to see their marketting.

 

[Gaborn]

Kinda off topic, but...
After PS3 launch, no one thought that Sony could use the "going all out" route again with Vita, the fact they will recoup cost after 2 or so years is frightening, seeing the actual state of handheld market.

I can see Sony going all out again with PS4, even when it doesn´t make too much sense due their financial position.

The biggest problem with "going all out" is not SONY'S financial position, it's the fact that development costs already rose far too high and drove many developers effectively into the ground. a more modest upgrade means more reasonable development costs which helps smaller and indie developers.

 

[bgassassin]

Unless Sony or Microsoft come out with a full unveiling, I don't expect a new system from them until 2014 at the earliest. The 360 and PS3 still have some life left in them, but the Wii is on it's last legs. Nintendo has to release a new system. Unfortunately, the economy is their biggest competition. If they don't get the price low - like $250 - they risk low sales. If the economy tanks and people have less disposable income, they aren't going to be as willing to spend their money unless some magical mass appeal happens like it did with the Wii. It's also likely Sony and Microsoft will cut prices when the Wii U is released. It's a fine line to tread and 2012 is going to be very interesting. I really hope Nintendo is taking the economy into consideration especially after the 3DS.

Sony did a "partial" (looking back it was very detailed) reveal of the PS3 at E3 '05, final unveil at E3 '06 with a launch Fall '06. MS did a full unveil E3 2005 with a launch Fall '05. Personally I'm expecting some type of reveal from both at E3 '12 with a possible full unveil from MS and launch Fall '12. The point is that even if they were to show nothing next year, the window between the full unveil and launch is small enough to believe they could wait till E3 '13 and still launch by Fall '13.

 

[guek]

This next E3 is going to be something else...the hype train will be unbearable.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

The biggest problem with "going all out" is not SONY'S financial position, it's the fact that development costs already rose far too high and drove many developers effectively into the ground. a more modest upgrade means more reasonable development costs which helps smaller and indie developers.

Even the largest publishers are wary about spending $100 million on a game. The only time they seem confident in doing so is when it sells multimillion units every release.

Unless you're Nintendo.

In which case be lucky you got $1.5 million.

Anyway... anyone expecting a metric jump is on some seriously bad drugs. Give devs 2 gigs of high quality RAM and iterations of modern tech and they should be more than happy.

 

[Gaborn]

Even the largest publishers are wary about spending $100 million on a game. The only time they seem confident in doing so is when it sells multimillion units every release.

Unless you're Nintendo.

In which case be lucky you got $1.5 million.

Anyway... anyone expecting a metric jump is on some seriously bad drugs. Give devs 2 gigs of high quality RAM and iterations of modern tech and they should be more than happy.

Yep. People need to realize the PS3/360 were unusually large increases in console power. They're not typical of the industry and the industry cannot sustain hardware increases of that magnitude without further contraction.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Yep. People need to realize the PS3/360 were unusually large increases in console power. They're not typical of the industry and the industry cannot sustain hardware increases of that magnitude without further contraction.

On top of that look at the high initial price of the PS3 and the very slow adoption rate as another reason Sony and MS might see some disincentive to fighting that war again.

Yes they've sold 50 million units. Good job Sony. You just gave up 100 million users. A move they aren't likely to repeat. At MS and Nintendo's expense if they do it right. Completely equal footing between them? I see the market being an interesting place.

 

[AzaK]

This next E3 is going to be something else...the hype train will be unbearable.

Totally, it's bad enough as it is! We have no official core specs at all so all they'd have to do is tell us something like the amount of RAM it will have and we'd have another 190 pages added to this thread overnight.

I really do hope it's not an E3 '12 full reveal and Christmas '12 launch however, that to me just seems an insanely long period of time financially with the Wii doing so poorly now. Of course it might not be anything they can actually do anything about, having left things so late and being caught by the Wii plummet. Unless the 3DS somehow goes gangbusters, I don't see them doing well for the next year if Wii U is so late.

I'm really hoping they can get enough software together for a launch in April but if they haven't/only just finalised the system and Pachter knows what he's talking about (6 months to ramp up production enough for a solid launch) then it may very well be E3 or >.

 

[snesfreak]

Yep. People need to realize the PS3/360 were unusually large increases in console power. They're not typical of the industry and the industry cannot sustain hardware increases of that magnitude without further contraction.

This kind of logical reasoning has no place in this thread!

 

[guek]

but if they haven't/only just finalised the system and Pachter knows what he's talking about

*chortle*

 

[StreetsAhead]

*chortle*

But all Wii U needs to be a success is "a competitive price, compelling first party launch titles, and compelling third party launch titles." The man is clearly a genius of some kind.

 

[mrklaw]

Yep. People need to realize the PS3/360 were unusually large increases in console power. They're not typical of the industry and the industry cannot sustain hardware increases of that magnitude without further contraction.

no they weren't. PS2 and PS3 were perhaps. A couple of generations of major jumps might set expectations high, but next gen there is no major technical hurdle to aim for. We're already (occasionally) at 1080p, so that just needs to be more comfortable, we're already 5.1 lossless digital audio. We just need faster.

and mobile tech still suggests to me there is a big leap there somewhere. If Vita is nearly PS3 level, then mobile tech will be surpassing PS3 before PS4 is out. PS4/Xbox 720 *needs* to be a big jump forwards to stay relevant.

 

[guek]

We're already (occasionally) at 1080p, so that just needs to be more comfortable, we're already 5.1 lossless digital audio. We just need faster.

What games are native 1080p?

edit: huh. did a search. did not know there were so many ps3 games at native 1080p

 

[AzaK]

*chortle*

Yeah I hesitated myself as I typed it. His predictions might be off but I could believe he knows about manufacturing times etc.

Regardless, April is what I would be OK with. If its coming much later I'll probably get a 360 before then which equals less money for Wii U and games for it.

 

[guek]

I'm predicting a summer release, maybe July or August. Probably August.

The wii will shrivel up and die between now and then, but I don't think that can really be avoided. I think nintendo should just go all out after this holiday season and slash the price of the wii, pump out a ton of crazy colors, and add their entire first party lineup to the "wii select" pricing.

 

[AniHawk]

I'm predicting a summer release, maybe July or August. Probably August.

The wii will shrivel up and die between now and then, but I don't think that can really be avoided. I think nintendo should just go all out after this holiday season and slash the price of the wii, pump out a ton of crazy colors, and add their entire first party lineup to the "wii select" pricing.

they'll definitely do the price slashing if the ds is any indication. they'll probably ship enough so that they can say they hit 100 million consoles sold with the machine and then let it die in 2013 so it won't siphon sales from the wii u (or people don't get too confused between the two).

i imagine they'll keep the nintendo selects stuff around a good long while, especially if they can successfully convey that the wii u is the upgrade to the wii and plays wii games.

 

[Gaborn]

they'll definitely do the price slashing if the ds is any indication. they'll probably ship enough so that they can say they hit 100 million consoles sold with the machine and then let it die in 2013 so it won't siphon sales from the wii u (or people don't get too confused between the two).

i imagine they'll keep the nintendo selects stuff around a good long while, especially if they can successfully convey that the wii u is the upgrade to the wii and plays wii games.

I think between proper marketing, word of mouth, and posssibly re-designed cover art for Wii U games so they don't look like Wii games this won't be an issue. I mean, it's the same idea with the 360. What you need with the Wii U is simply a little marketing. Yes there was some initial confusion after the first unveiling because of the way they focused so heavily on the controller but the idea that actual consumers are going to be confused when the marketing push hits is pretty ridiculous.

 

[Dreamwriter]

I think between proper marketing, word of mouth, and posssibly re-designed cover art for Wii U games so they don't look like Wii games this won't be an issue. I mean, it's the same idea with the 360. What you need with the Wii U is simply a little marketing. Yes there was some initial confusion after the first unveiling because of the way they focused so heavily on the controller but the idea that actual consumers are going to be confused when the marketing push hits is pretty ridiculous.

Well, you assume there'll be a good marketing push that shows how different it is Nintendo didn't do a good job with the 3DS, lots of people thought it was just a DS that could make some games 3D. I could easily see Nintendo making the same mistake with the Wii-U, ending up with customers thinking it's just a new Wii model that can play Wii games in HD. Let's hope Nintendo learned from their 3DS mistakes.

 

[JJConrad]

Well, you assume there'll be a good marketing push that shows how different it is Nintendo didn't do a good job with the 3DS, lots of people thought it was just a DS that could make some games 3D. I could easily see Nintendo making the same mistake with the Wii-U, ending up with customers thinking it's just a new Wii model that can play Wii games in HD. Let's hope Nintendo learned from their 3DS mistakes.

I have yet to see actual evidence that this ever happened. I think the general audience is a lot smarter than GAF gives it credit... and in cases like the Wii U reveal, smarter than GAF as a whole.

 

[Übermatik]

I'm predicting a summer release, maybe July or August. Probably August.

The wii will shrivel up and die between now and then, but I don't think that can really be avoided. I think nintendo should just go all out after this holiday season and slash the price of the wii, pump out a ton of crazy colors, and add their entire first party lineup to the "wii select" pricing.

July/August seems extremely likely.
Enough time from now till then for 3rd parties and Nintendo's developer teams to get working on games for the show reel, whether they be launch titles or future holiday releases.
Also allows the system to get a good line up of games and an established user base ready for seasonal sales.
If Nintendo play this right marketing/advertising wise, they could look at dominating the Christmas charts.
Judging by their past performance, this is perfectly possible. Just hoping they have enough first party titles to push the system come holiday.

 

[nickcv]

I have yet to see actual evidence that this ever happened. I think the general audience is a lot smarter than GAF gives it credit... and in cases like the Wii U reveal, smarter than GAF as a whole.

most of my friends totally believed it...
i had to explain to each of them that it was a totally new system.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

I don't think it helped when journalists who knew it was a new system, followed the news, and many of which had seen it beforehand, wrote stories about how they didn't know if it was a new system or a new controller.

They saw the sizzle reel of current gen games and went "Fuck, another five years of graphics I am already used to" and everything just went to shit in their minds.

The comments from some of the press (Giant Bomb) that the PS3/360 footage looked "like 360 launch games at best" was evidence of that.

 

[Übermatik]

I don't think it helped when journalists who knew it was a new system, followed the news, and many of which had seen it beforehand, wrote stories about how they didn't know if it was a new system or a new controller.

They saw the sizzle reel of current gen games and went "Fuck, another five years of graphics I am already used to" and everything just went to shit in their minds.

The comments from some of the press (Giant Bomb) that the PS3/360 footage looked "like 360 launch games at best" was evidence of that.

This annoyed me so much. Typical media bullshitting.

 

[DaSorcerer7]

It would appear that EA are planning to bring Mass Effect 3 to Nintendo’s forthcoming Wii U console, which wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise.

The company’s official extranet currently states that BioWare’s finale to their epic space opera will release on Xbox 360, PlayStation 3, PC and “Next Gen” platforms.

EA Games label manager Frank Gibeau has previously commented, “I can’t say we are going to do it on the Wii U, but you can imagine what we could do with that controller in the Mass Effect universe. It feels like a really nice fit, but we’ll announce that when the time is right.”

Still, if true, this is the direction that Nintendo certainly need to take to ensure they can shrug off the overriding “casual” image that they have been unfairly labelled with following the Wii.

Source

 

[Plinko]

The comments from some of the press (Giant Bomb) that the PS3/360 footage looked "like 360 launch games at best" was evidence of that.

This was my favorite part of the E3 thread. So many people got burned because of that as they were absolutely ripping on the graphics. Hilarious.

 

[walking fiend]

This was my favorite part of the E3 thread. So many people got burned because of that as they were absolutely ripping on the graphics. Hilarious.

That was SOOO goood!

 

[Übermatik]

That was SOOO goood!

That thread supplied me with many laughs indeed.

Also, Mass Effect on Wii U would be great, albeit 5 months too late, going on the August system release speculation...

 

[Sneaky Gato]

Link? Sick in bed and needing a laugh.

 

[Übermatik]

Link? Sick in bed and needing a laugh.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=432783

Think it starts at about page 70 iirc.

 

[guek]

so much doom in that thread. it's hilarious

 

[Bending_Unit_22]

This annoyed me so much. Typical media bullshitting.

To be fair, if I recall the excuse was that Nintendo caused them believe it was true and so they believed Nintendo and not their obviously lying eyes. So still Nintendo's fault.

I have yet to see actual evidence that this ever happened. I think the general audience is a lot smarter than GAF gives it credit... and in cases like the Wii U reveal, smarter than GAF as a whole.

I've heard a clerk at Wal Mart and Gamestop ask someone trying to buy a 3DS game if they understood the 3DS was a new system and that those weren't just DS games that had 3D on the 3DS. One was and one wasn't, but the point is it was asked at 2 different stores in 2 different states so it seems like an issue store clerks have to deal with.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I remember thinking "Damn, the average GAF IQ must be really low... we know they are showing a new console off today."

 

[BurntPork]

The comments from some of the press (Giant Bomb) that the PS3/360 footage looked "like 360 launch games at best" was evidence of that.

Giant Bomb actually wrote that? Can I see?

 

[BurntPork]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=28397510&postcount=7021

AHAHAHAHAHA

 

[Hobbestetrician]

I don't think it helped when journalists who knew it was a new system, followed the news, and many of which had seen it beforehand, wrote stories about how they didn't know if it was a new system or a new controller.

They saw the sizzle reel of current gen games and went "Fuck, another five years of graphics I am already used to" and everything just went to shit in their minds.

The comments from some of the press (Giant Bomb) that the PS3/360 footage looked "like 360 launch games at best" was evidence of that.

Just goes to show how terrible the media is and how they had their minds made up on how they were going to react to what was shown.