Nah, they make it through unscathed.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Wkd BO 0623-2517 - Transformers snore than meets the eye, Woman keeps up with Cars
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
Nah, they make it through unscathed.
BronsonLee
Member
Slayven gonna threaten everybody if they see Captain Marvel
I am curious to see how much this one cost.
The last one was really expensive
https://fastlane.louisianaeconomicd...Details.aspx?ProjNum=YE9uBPmHPjEAwoQwBJgcFQ==
BronsonLee
Member
235 million?!
I can't see it. Ant-Man (which is a good film) passed 500M and that seemed like the most likely to miss the mark.
I see 500M for everything on that list including Captain Marvel.
Guardians 3 and Doctor Strange 2 are likely to be their 2020 films, so Marvel might hit 20 films over $500M in a row.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Nope. Not with that slate. Ant-Man & the Wasp will probably be the lowest-grossing on that list but even then, it'll still do 500+.
If they ever do a Black Widow movie, I could see it in the 400 mil range, which would still be good.
At this point it is a well oiled machine of a studio.
Maybe if Captain Marvel misses the mark with critics it could miss 500M but that is a big maybe.
Ant man sequel could get beat up coming right after IW. It depends how heavily plot involved his character is in IW I suppose. But, it seems safe.
Black Panther could fail because we don't deserve nice things from amazing cast and directors, but that trailer was hype and the comic run it's based off of is too good to fail.
So, probably they make it through unscathed.
Given that DC hasn't dipped below 600m worldwide with exactly one good movie to their name probably means anything with any kind of appeal to anyone worldwide with a budget is gonna make 500m for a bit from here on out.
A lot of that budget was on screen though. Beautiful, detailed and believable.
I think their biggest risk is just franchise fatigue. Though, there has been no sign of that and the only franchises that have run into that problem globally are really shitty franchises that made more money than they should have.
They need to handle the post IW transition smartly. If they do they are golden. But any major shakeups coming out of that (losing big name actors, characters) could potentially rock the boat.
But honestly, at this point I think an Avengers made up of their C teamers would probably limp to 800 million globally.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
The only one that seems even slightly at risk is Captain Marvel, and I only say that because we haven't see anything. The sequels are all locked, and Spider-Man and Black Panther look like they'll easily make it.
And nixing Clone Wars doesn't count as cheating as far as I'm concerned.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
It is weird to me that Captain Marvel is releasing a mere 2 months before the massive blowoff that will be Avengers 4. Even a month earlier in February would feel like suitable breathing room.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
A month is breathing room enough, really. 2 months should be more than fine.
I'm sure K-Swiss knows, but what percentage of most Marvel movies box-office comes in the first 30 days of release?
I'm sure K-Swiss knows, but what percentage of most Marvel movies box-office comes in the first 30 days of release?
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
It's not really box office so much as perception and marketing, in my eyes. The 2019 Avengers film is going to be culmination of eleven years of films, and is presumably going to have just about the most aggressive marketing campaign we've ever seen. Trying to sell a relatively unknown property like Captain Marvel while also pushing for your biggest film ever just two months later doesn't sound like a great idea... but I may be wrong.
Given that they've had years to prepare that movie, given all the shit Feige has said over the years, anything but a homerun would be a big disappointment. For me at least.
If that's the movie they fuck up, that'd be really unfortunate.
Solid reasoning...any chance it moves?
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Here's the current February release schedule for 2019
The LEGO Movie 2 (WB) - 2/8
Isn't It Romantic (WB) - 2/14
Untitled Fox / Marvel Film (2019) (Fox) - 2/14
Bride of Frankenstein (2019) (Uni.) - 2/15
If Black Panther is a huge success next year, I think they would have no problems pushing it forward by a month.
Maybe.
Yes.
The current release date for Captain Marvel is International Women's Day.
Sibersk Esto
Banned
welp
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Yeah. It'll be fine.
They'll blitz Avengers hard with 30 days to go. They'll blitz Captain Marvel the month before that opens.
I bet they have some sort of plan somewhere that will use the marketing campaigns as some sort of amplifier of each other. Like very early Avengers marketing will make it a point to highlight Marvel. Marvel's ads will highlight Avengers again. Then the movie will drop on International Women's Day, and will blow the fuck up for the next 3 straight weeks, and then after the 4th weekend, the Avengers train will fucking explode towards the finish line.
They'll blitz Avengers hard with 30 days to go. They'll blitz Captain Marvel the month before that opens.
I bet they have some sort of plan somewhere that will use the marketing campaigns as some sort of amplifier of each other. Like very early Avengers marketing will make it a point to highlight Marvel. Marvel's ads will highlight Avengers again. Then the movie will drop on International Women's Day, and will blow the fuck up for the next 3 straight weeks, and then after the 4th weekend, the Avengers train will fucking explode towards the finish line.
Here are the 4th weekend totals vs domestic totals for the last 10 Marvel films.
Code:
TITLE Wkd 4 TOTAL DOM TOTAL % Earned in 24 Days
Avengers $513M $623M 82.3%
Iron Man 3 $367M $409M 89.7%
Thor The Dark World $187M $206M 90.8%
The Winter Soldier $225M $260M 86.5%
Guardians of the Galaxy $251M $333M 75.4%
Age of Ultron $405M $459M 88.2%
Ant-Man $148M $180M 82.2%
Captain American: Civil War $373M $408M 91.4%
Doctor Strange $206M $232M 88.8%
Guardians of the Galaxy 2 $334M $390M 85.6%Disney is just going to send everyone in the US a monthly subscription notice in Summer 2019
Untitled Avengers - 5/3/19
Star Wars: Episode IX - 5/24/19
Toy Story 4 - 6/21/19
The Lion King (Live Action) - 7/19/19
RastaMentality
Banned
What are you thinking about Lion King? Does the month clue in anything on it's possible performance?
Solid reasoning. You guys make pretty compelling arguments.
BGE, how do you respond?
They stole WB's Dark Knight/Harry Potter slot
EDIT: Right now, Secret Life of Pets 2 and Spider-Man Homecoming 2 (or whatever they retitle it to) are scheduled to go head to head on July 4th weekend in 2019.
BronsonLee
Member
Spider-Man: Junior Prom
Spider-Man: The Next Class
Spider-Man: We're Just Degrassi Now, btw Drake's Paralyzed
Spider-Man: The Next Class
Spider-Man: We're Just Degrassi Now, btw Drake's Paralyzed
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Considering the "If Jungle Book made this much, then surely..." logic didn't fault us with Beauty and the Beast, I think The Lion King will make $700M+ domestically
BTW, Secret Life of Pets 1 started off strong, but went off the rails within about 20 minutes.
Something something Slayven's opinion on Captain Marvel.
It's Thursday afternoon and I may already be drunk.
BTW, Secret Life of Pets 1 started off strong, but went off the rails within about 20 minutes.
It has an appropriate acronym. No doubt kids are up for a second helping of SLOP though. That might end up being one of the biggest weekends of all time.
Paramount originally had Transformers 6 scheduled for the weekend before, but something tells me that those plans will be adjusted.
Moved to 2022.
Dash_Riprock
Member
From talking with friends and fam, even though the films are good, people are tired are seeing the whole "Apes vs last remants of humans" plots and want a remake of the first film already with the space ship crashing and Ape civilization in full wing.
Theatre counts for this weekend are out. Wonder Woman drops from 529 venues. The Mummy, All Eyez On Me, and Rough Night are hit the hardest.
47 Meters down has the smallest venue drop out of any of the current top 10 (not counting TF5 which is in its second weekend).
Despicable Me 3 did indeed set a new record with 4529 venues. The third Twilight was the previous record holder with 4468 venues opening weekend.
47 Meters down has the smallest venue drop out of any of the current top 10 (not counting TF5 which is in its second weekend).
Despicable Me 3 did indeed set a new record with 4529 venues. The third Twilight was the previous record holder with 4468 venues opening weekend.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Just got back from Baby Driver. It was...okay.
The performances, cinematography, editing, etc were all very strong. But the whole flow of the film just felt mediocre. I know the whole schtick of it was it being edited to the music (which was done extremely well), but by about 45 minutes in, it just felt like Wright jerking off and making some mix tape and showing off that he can coherently edit a film to random songs. Even when it felt like it was building and building in the tension, it just kind of skids along with no real release.
I am actually surprised at how bland I feel after it. Although, I did try not to speed on the way home while listening to Brighton Rock.
The performances, cinematography, editing, etc were all very strong. But the whole flow of the film just felt mediocre. I know the whole schtick of it was it being edited to the music (which was done extremely well), but by about 45 minutes in, it just felt like Wright jerking off and making some mix tape and showing off that he can coherently edit a film to random songs. Even when it felt like it was building and building in the tension, it just kind of skids along with no real release.
I am actually surprised at how bland I feel after it. Although, I did try not to speed on the way home while listening to Brighton Rock.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I DON'T WANNA HEAR THAT SHIT
I'M NOT TRYIN TO HEAR ANY OF THAT
I'M NOT TRYIN TO HEAR ANY OF THAT
PhoncipleBone
Banned
I am curious if you saw it too.
I am still bummed at how cold I am feeling to it.
I am still bummed at how cold I am feeling to it.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Work/life is being a bit of a motherfucker right now, but I think I'm gonna be able to see it next week.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Baby Driver is easily the best film I've seen this summer. Don't feel cold on it, brother.
Hell, might as well rank the summer films I've seen
1. Baby Driver (A-)
2. It Comes at Night (B+)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy (B)
4. Wonder Woman (C+)
5. Rough Night (C)
5. Atomic Blonde (C-)
6. Alien: Covenant (C-)
7. Pirates of the Caribbean 5 (D+)
8. King Arthur (D)
9. Baywatch (D-)
9. The Mummy (D-)
10. Transformers 5 (F)
Hell, might as well rank the summer films I've seen
1. Baby Driver (A-)
2. It Comes at Night (B+)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy (B)
4. Wonder Woman (C+)
5. Rough Night (C)
5. Atomic Blonde (C-)
6. Alien: Covenant (C-)
7. Pirates of the Caribbean 5 (D+)
8. King Arthur (D)
9. Baywatch (D-)
9. The Mummy (D-)
10. Transformers 5 (F)
PhoncipleBone
Banned
There is a lot to like in the film. Almost everything is there for it to work and be great. But by the fifth time we see Baby lip singing to a song it starts to get old.
Also, Jamie Foxx is a scary MF in this.
Also, Jamie Foxx is a scary MF in this.
After watching Baby Driver and finding out my GF hasn't seen any of the other Wright movies we naturally had to change that.
She was a bit cold on Scott Pilgrim, mainly because she thought no girl of Flowers caliber would go for such a loser (I almost wanted to respond by saying hey I'm kinda like the Cera in our relationship) but okay. I can feel with it.
Then we watched Shaun of the Dead which she liked but didn't love. At this point I was in full on panic mode.
I WAS LIKE WHO IS THIS WOMAN.
We just finished Hot Fuzz and she loved it. Called it one of the best comedies she has ever seen and can't stop talking about it.
Whew lad 😅
She is a keeper.
She was a bit cold on Scott Pilgrim, mainly because she thought no girl of Flowers caliber would go for such a loser (I almost wanted to respond by saying hey I'm kinda like the Cera in our relationship) but okay. I can feel with it.
Then we watched Shaun of the Dead which she liked but didn't love. At this point I was in full on panic mode.
I WAS LIKE WHO IS THIS WOMAN.
We just finished Hot Fuzz and she loved it. Called it one of the best comedies she has ever seen and can't stop talking about it.
Whew lad 😅
She is a keeper.
Calling it now: Lion King will outgross both Star Wars and Avengers.
Discotheque
Banned
Jamie Foxx and Jon Hamm were so dope in it. Im gonna have to watch it in theaters again. Loved it.
That chase in the third act set to that guitar track (hocus pocus by focus) was fucking nuts. I was geeking out to the way the machine gun fire was timed to the songs guitar riff but also it was just a really fun and fast paced scene to watch as everything went to shit for the characters
That chase in the third act set to that guitar track (hocus pocus by focus) was fucking nuts. I was geeking out to the way the machine gun fire was timed to the songs guitar riff but also it was just a really fun and fast paced scene to watch as everything went to shit for the characters
That's...not an unreasonable prediction.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Did love the use of Hocus Pocus
LordOfLore
Banned
Any good cinemas in LA I should watch Apes in? Going to be here for a week.