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Worst Case Scenario for the Vita

I don't think I'll ever own one because I hardly game anymore, but would like it to succeed to help keep up dedicated handheld gaming. I think Sony should have invested some time creating properties with long-term appeal. They have their Gods of War and Uncharteds, but interested in those only go so far.
 

Pandaman

Everything is moe to me
I can't imagine Sony making a profit on this device as currently priced. One, it has an oled display, yes it is small but it still costs quite a bit to produce. Two, It has a touchpad on the back of it, touchpads are not all that cheap. Three, the mobile graphics processor is quite cutting edge as well, not cheap. Same goes for it's cpu, this all adds up.
good news!
UBM's VP of business intelligence, Jeffrey Brown, tells us that the total bill of materials for the 3G-enabled version of the system comes in at an estimated $159.10 - that's around £102.90. That figure breaks down as follows:
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-01-20-is-the-playstation-vita-worth-230
 

MYE

Member
This is such a myth.

Most of Nintendo's outout is portable versions of their mainline systems.

Starfox? Zelda? Mario Land? Mario Kart?

Lets not use double standards...

And guess what, they all adapt perfectly to the pick up and play nature of handheld gaming.

Cant say the same thing about resistence, uncharted, god of war, and all the other wierd, serious, cinematic experiences sony keeps trying to push on a small screen.
 

ReBurn

Gold Member
Didn't this thing just come world wide a couple of months ago? How many was it supposed to sell in two months to be a "success"?
 

Sipowicz

Banned
it's already happened man.

on paper the vita was excellent, in reality it is a joke that only the most ardent of fanboys could love

the best parts of the psp were the excellent and unique first party games and the fantastic third party support

the worst parts were the watered down ports/spinoffs outsourced to "handheld teams"

the vita plays almost nothing but watered down ports/spinoffs outsourced to "handheld teams", it has nothing coming out for it and it is selling like shit

the 3ds is closer to a psp successor than the vita is and that's just sad
 

BigDug13

Member
Didn't this thing just come world wide a couple of months ago? How many was it supposed to sell in two months to be a "success"?

Sales don't normally flatline so quickly like it did this generation. Nintendo experienced the same thing and had to price drop to sell it. Sony is experiencing it as well but they're in competition with a $150 machine that has been out for awhile and has the full force of Nintendo's primary first party development houses making great games.

The situation is untenable at $250 plus $30 memory card. Nintendo also has full BC while Vita only has BC with titles you buy online, not UMD's, giving 3DS a much larger library of games. That whole used game market giving a large selection of cheap DS games doesn't get replicated with the online PSP game purchases that Vita offers.
 

Plasma

Banned
As long as Persona 4 The Golden gets localised it will all be worth it, for me at least.

Hopefully they'll announce some stuff at E3 anyway for games coming out at the end of the year.
 
3DS´s comeback is only happening in Japan. It´s under preforming in the west. I would say that is a very bad thing for the 3DS especially after 80$ price cut and Mario games are out.
That's even worse news for Sony though.

This is such a myth.

Most of Nintendo's outout is portable versions of their mainline systems.

Starfox? Zelda? Mario Land? Mario Kart?

Lets not use double standards...
While there is a certain double standard, your examples don't support your argument. With the exception of Zelda (the 3D remake, the portable iterations all had changes to accommodate portable play) all these games lend themselves extremely well to portable play.

The UMD is why the PSP was as successful as it was. Or a contributing factor.

It allowed near PS2 quality games by offering large amounts of storage long before flash cartridge capacity caught up. It made most of the top selling games on PSP (LCS, Battlefront, NFS, etc) possible.

Being optical media, it's cheap and easy to make. This allowed niche companies to do physical releases most cost effectively than on the DS. Sure, MH caused the PSP to dominate in Japan, but look at all those adventure games and low tier RPGs it's gotten - that's possible because of the cheap optical media.

Yes, with poor programming it could be slow. But this was solved years ago when flash media finally caught up to optical media in capacity at a cheap price - you could simply install the game to the memory stick. Again, it was up to the programmers to implement it, but the solution exists.

Going to cartridge means the Vita has no advantage vs the 3DS - no backwards comparability (without rebuying games on PSN and hoping they work) and for niche companies, it's no longer cheaper to produce physical copies than the competitor.
There are more niche and cheap games on DS than on PSP. Do you have any further information on costs for publishing and distribution? From my gut feeling royalties and distribution costs will outweigh raw material costs by far.

The introduction of UMD was also not primarily pushed by the gaming side. It was ditched fast but it was intended to serve as a medium for movies and TV shows. It really was MD reloaded.

These component breakdowns breakdowns always work with general assumptions and don't incorporate manufacturing, distribution, marketing etc. As per link costs for 3DS were estimated to be $ 100 and Nintendo said they make a loss when selling it at $ 170 and have the financial report to back that claim. That doesn't mean Sony can't break even on PSV but this component breakdown sure isn't proof of that.
 

gofreak

GAF's Bob Woodward
Sonys pockets are empty

No they're not.

Vita's worst case scenario depends on Sony's commitment to it.

I think its worst possible scenario is that it muddles along as is. Financially the Vita business seems to be pretty neutral, so it would be sustainable at low volumes, more than any previous Playstation anyway. But I'd be hopeful of more than that, if Sony is indeed putting more resources into the game business.
 

Paracelsus

Member
it's already happened man.

on paper the vita was excellent, in reality it is a joke that only the most ardent of fanboys could love

the best parts of the psp were the excellent and unique first party games and the fantastic third party support

the worst parts were the watered down ports/spinoffs outsourced to "handheld teams"

the vita plays almost nothing but watered down ports/spinoffs outsourced to "handheld teams", it has nothing coming out for it and it is selling like shit

the 3ds is closer to a psp successor than the vita is and that's just sad

PSP has been a no-games-console for half its lifecycle.
 

ReBurn

Gold Member
Sales don't normally flatline so quickly like it did this generation. Nintendo experienced the same thing and had to price drop to sell it. Sony is experiencing it as well but they're in competition with a $150 machine that has been out for awhile and has the full force of Nintendo's primary first party development houses making great games.

The situation is untenable at $250 plus $30 memory card. Nintendo also has full BC while Vita only has BC with titles you buy online, not UMD's, giving 3DS a much larger library of games. That whole used game market giving a large selection of cheap DS games doesn't get replicated with the online PSP game purchases that Vita offers.

So what is the gap between 3DS and Vita per month? Is 3DS selling more than double or something?
 
I imagine the Vita is selling 20-25K a week in the US, assuming a similar sales curve to that revealed by Nintendo for the EU.

Most feasibly best case scenario is that it holds that line until a price drop. I think it could since I think the software and product in general seems to be strangely designed more for a Western audience.

Worst case scenario it experiences similar gradual declines as it's seen in JPN where it's now hovering around 8K/week.

If it does manage to hold it will be at around a WW sell through of around 3 million by the end of Q3. :/

If it doesn't and Sony does nothing... it's morte.

So what is the gap between 3DS and Vita per month? Is 3DS selling more than double or something?
Probably roughly double, maybe just under/over double depending on the week. In the EU region 3DS weekly sales are around the 40-50K/week, US about 50K/week on average.

It's too soon to tell if the PSV will maintain a 20-25K/week sell through.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Unrealistic worse case senarion: Some patent infringement happeneds, resulting in that Sony must stop producing and selling Vita.

Funny/interesting worse case senario: The Vita becomes financially succesful, meaning that tons of people would be wrong with the early doom & gloom prediction.

Realistic worse case senario: The Vita ends up being a huge financial loss for Sony.
 

ShinNL

Member
My worst case scenario is if they don't seem to manage to make a smaller, better looking redesign and get certain (W)RPGs for it, like Skyrim, Dark Souls, Diablo 3 and the like.

Considering they don't seem to be breaking even right now, I doubt they have the option to make a redesign. And so far there's no sign of any of the games I listed.

It's looking grim.
 
Worst case scenario: Vita becomes wildly successful at $250 with $50 games becoming the norm, causing them to go for $350 next time around with Nintendo at $300 and $50 games of its own.

Best case scenario: Vita is wildly successful at a $150 price point and actually lowers the price of most games to $30, beating even Nintendo's pricing. Console makers realize that reasonable pricing is more important than power and price future systems accordingly.
 
Aah... innovating console experiences!

Well in some ways I'd say yes - lots of these types of games will be 'playable' in that other sense of the word on handhelds for the first time. ;)

Personally one of the worst case scenarios for me would be that LBP gets cancelled or endlessly delayed, because that should be really something else on the Vita, with user creation tools like that and access to basically all the input devices that Vita sports. On that screen, it should look amazing too. So definitely if that doesn't make the announced June release, that would be a disaster for me. ;)

Same for PS Suite - that looks very promising. There's still somework to do but so far they're doing a very good job, so if they end up messing that up or it stays in beta forever, that would be a big shame too ...
 

Oppo

Member
Here's my thoughts. Sony knew when they were launching in NA that it was going to be gradual. The Vita had the softest of launches. Very little promo. I still think this is by design. They are trying several new things, launch wise and hardware wise. If the Vita hits 60 million over its lifetime like the PSP did then I think they will be very pleased.

Anyways. Summer drought is upon us. They knew the launch being just before this span would result in a long slow grind. I think partly to get it out there and get it going, to let PS Suite get finished, and check for any mad piracy action. One or two teases along the way to E3 like Gravity Rush and maybe Sound Shapes (no one mentions this when ranting about "watered down nonportable console ports"), then do a big blowout at E3 with the CoD Vita, maybe some Square stuff, the BioShock Vita game and a bunch of others. It only needs a few hits to be really viable as it doesn't have nearly the baggage the PSP had. And I do believe that if Nintendo can carry their handheld mostly single-handed (1st party) then there's no reason Sony can't as well. (No, they don't sell the same volume as Nintendo, I just think that is their own fault.)
 
This would be awesome, i rather have an improved Morrorwind than a downgraded Skyrim.

I agree. I guess they could cut Skyrim in half, but then they'd have to have some GTA "The bridge is out due to terrorists" crap. I guess they could also easily port Oblivion.

There's a lot of Nintendo avatars in this thread.

Because there was nary a Kratos, Sackboy, or Cole avatar in sight in all them "3DS is fails" threads last year, right?
 

Cipherr

Member
people hated the UMD drive, remember?

barely anyone bought UMD games/movies and there usually were more Torrents of PSP games online than units sold at retail....

200+ million UMD games sold is a rough way to say 'barely anyone'. Truth is, no matter how shitty of a format it was, being able to run those hundreds of millions of UMD's that are out there would probably be a plus.

I mean, I don't think the 3DS is managing to do near a quarter million a month right now in the US based solely on the 3DS's catalog. And I suspect when the new Pokemon comes out in a few months we will see the 3DS benefit from it tremendously. Early in a systems life, compatibility with its predecessors dominant form of medium is important.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
3DS went through this exact same period, although the saving grace on that horizon was knowing Kingdom Hearts, Mario Kart et al were coming at some point.

Sony has bizarrely chosen to play a lot of Vita announcements close to their chest. I remember many industry insiders surprised at the amount of games just not getting unveiled after launch that they knew were being made. We're probably still in that situation and hopefully E3 will be the big coming out party.

I also find it amazing dev companys havent seen the boon of reusing HD gen assets for cheaply produced but amazing looking sister games. EA seems to be the biggest culprit of that with Mass Effect and Dead Space guff for iOS no-one touches yet no Battlefield game for Vita. The first big quality FPS with wifi online stuff should have been the focus of Sony's ambassadors and outreach to dev's all along. Its so weird we're getting Resistance and nothing else in the short term.
 
Not having the Vita Call of Duty game for launch was a big mistake. If they had managed that, I feel the Vita situation could be completely different.

The fact that no CoD game was out when the 3G was launched was a big reason I told a friend that the system is falling behind. I still believe that the longer they wait to put out the Vita COD, the more it will hurt the system.
 
200+ million UMD games sold is a rough way to say 'barely anyone'.

This is a poor argument. When are people allowed to refer to it as being a relatively poor number compared to competition?

Can 50 million be "barely anyone?"

10 million? How's that?

What if it was 1 million? That's a lot of games! How dare anyone say 1 million games sold is a small number.

The fact remains that when you're dealing with large scales, as in the game industry, 200 million can indeed be "barely anyone."
 
Sony's loss on the WiFi Vita is probably comparable to the loss Nintendo is eating on 3DS per unit. There's an almost identical value difference in each between parts teardown and retail pricepoint ($70-80).

Sony probably makes a return on the 3G Vita (which no one buys) though. Given the system's overall slow sales though, Sony might not be able to bring production costs down as fast as Nintendo can through economies of scale.
 

Hatten

Member
The worst real case scenario is that in two years the PSV will be obsolete

Why I say "real"? because it's gonna happen

Now the Galaxy SIII is going to have a quadcore too, soon every phone and tablet will

2 years from now quads and ever more powerful duals (like the Krait) will be the standard

The Vita is already struggling against smartphones and tablets, its edge being that its more powerful than anything on the market

How long is it going to last when even cheap android phones have better graphics?
 
3DS went through this exact same period, although the saving grace on that horizon was knowing Kingdom Hearts, Mario Kart et al were coming at some point.

And yet some of the titles they announced in 2010 we still have little to no info on.
I'm looking at you Animal Crossing, Super Smash, Luigi's Mansion and Paper Mario

It could be that Sony has lots of announcements stacked up for E3, as they prepare to steal the show. That would be pretty cool, and if CoD game isn't just a lazy port, it could be very succesful. And yet, I still think Monster Hunter will be a no show; with the Vita doing as it is in Japan, Sony would announce it if it had anything to announce. It can't just afford to hold news back for the sake of "Surprise!" at E3. E3's still over a month away.

Difference between Nintendo and Sony is, Sony can probably dedicate the whole conference to the Vita, with I guess some time dedicated to God of War 0 & PASBR. Nintendo will be too busy with the WiiU, so I'm predicting we won't get many 3DS announcements, maybe some release dates for games we already know about.
 

Acheron

Banned
Yes. I don't care what has to be cut or downgraded for such a thing to happen, but for all the Sony fans asking for a MH-like juggernaut, this would be it.

Yeah cut down games not designed for mobile use and...

NO. If the game has all the usage characteristics of a console game but is crappier, people will play it on the console. Sony's continuous mistake is not understanding mobile games are used in different situations and thus require lower involvement, small increment gameplay. This is why iOS titles that GAF may think are shit do so well, mobile gaming users have different tastes because the context in which they use games is different.
 

zroid

Banned
Pretty sure that most people are taking that information from Kaz, who always made it clear that they would be aiming for profitablity as early as possible for the Vita. Thats partly why they designed it the way they did.

I don't know how it could be generally accepted that they are taking a "huge" loss on anything, when no one but Sony knows how much they sunk into the Vita. I can't imagine the R&D for Vita is massive.

That might be true. Well, the "generally accepted" comment was based on speculation more than anything else, but this is the first time I've ever heard someone posit that they might not be taking losses, so it came as a bit of a shock. I suppose it's possible, but I still don't quite buy it.

3DS went through this exact same period, although the saving grace on that horizon was knowing Kingdom Hearts, Mario Kart et al were coming at some point.

It's not quite the "exact same" if you've been keeping up with Sales-Age at all, but I think it would indeed be wise to wait until E3. If they've got software megatons coming, then the Vita could very well be pulled afloat.
 

Clear

CliffyB's Cock Holster
Hatten said:
How long is it going to last when even cheap android phones have better graphics?

You seem to be assuming that in such as a scenario Vita won't also be drastically cheaper than it is now.

Do you honestly think that manufacturing costs for a Vita are that much different to a high-end smartphone despite it using largely the exact same parts?
 

aeroslash

Member
People is really saying PSV needs WRPG and FPS?

In my opinion what a Portable console needs are games that can be played for a few minutes and that are easy to start when you have some time.
People don't want a portable to play for many hours or games in which you have to spend 1 hour in order to make huge advances...
Look at Kid Icarus for instance, it's a great, long long game, which can be replayed many many times, but its stages are constructed of no more than 5 to 10 minutes, so you know that when you have some time, you can turn it on, play a little and make some advances.

Maybe there's people out there who plays the PSV and the 3DS for hours and hours but i'm sure the majority just use a portable when they have some spare time, not long hours.
When Sony realizes that, maybe they will start to regain some of market share.
 
People is really saying PSV needs WRPG and FPS?

In my opinion what a Portable console needs are games that can be played for a few minutes and that are easy to start when you have some time.
People don't want a portable to play for many hours or games in which you have to spend 1 hour in order to make huge advances...
Look at Kid Icarus for instance, it's a great, long long game, which can be replayed many many times, but its stages are constructed of no more than 5 to 10 minutes, so you know that when you have some time, you can turn it on, play a little and make some advances.

Maybe there's people out there who plays the PSV and the 3DS for hours and hours but i'm sure the majority just use a portable when they have some spare time, not long hours.
When Sony realizes that, maybe they will start to regain some of market share.

You see these portable experiences as system sellers?

People are going to look at these games and say "oh, that's exactly what I've been looking for! Games I can pick up and play for a couple minutes without a lot of messing around! I have to buy a Vita, now that I know where I can find those bite sized experiences I crave!"
 
So this thread is now the OT for Sony hating Nintendo and Apple fans?

I love my Vita but Sony clearly has a lot of work to do. It needs to court smaller developers, and hopefully PSsuite will do that. It needs more original games. It also needs to keep churning out console franchises - even though this thread has deemed that to be it's death knell.





But as I said earlier, the main question posed by this thread is flawed and is designed to just become a piss on the Vita thread. What's the worst case scenario for anything, ever? Death. That's true of the Vita, 3DS, iPhone and also myself.


All of these devices fill different roles. I love my iphone. I love my 3DS. I love my Transformer Prime. And I love my Vita. I just don't understand the fucking hate you guys feel for the Vita. It seems so... juvenile. Like if the Vita happens to succeed it will hurt you guys personally.


Basically I need to stop coming into these threads.
 

zroid

Banned
You see these portable experiences as system sellers?

People are going to look at these games and say "oh, that's exactly what I've been looking for! Games I can pick up and play for a couple minutes without a lot of messing around! I have to buy a Vita, now that I know where I can find those bite sized experiences I crave!"

It's a tricky balance, isn't it? They can't release console ports and spinoffs because people will say "why should I play this on Vita?" and they can't release archetypal portable games as everyone has an iPhone or DS already. I suggested earlier in this thread that what the Vita needs most are portable-type experiences which actually make use of its unique features. Specifically, its dual-analogues.

So this thread is now the OT for Sony hating Nintendo and Apple fans?

The hell? Maybe I'm reading a different thread than you, because I don't see much hate at all. It's more concern than anything else. Nobody wants the Vita to fail.
 
My worst case scenario is if they don't seem to manage to make a smaller, better looking redesign and get certain (W)RPGs for it, like Skyrim, Dark Souls, Diablo 3 and the like.

Considering they don't seem to be breaking even right now, I doubt they have the option to make a redesign. And so far there's no sign of any of the games I listed.

It's looking grim.
I wouldn't hold my breath for Skyrim (why would you want to play that on a portable?) or Diablo 3 but there is Soul Sacrifice coming. Although it could be a spin-off with changed gameplay for all we know.

A re-design is always in the books, not shortly after launch though.

Here's my thoughts. Sony knew when they were launching in NA that it was going to be gradual. The Vita had the softest of launches. Very little promo. I still think this is by design. They are trying several new things, launch wise and hardware wise. If the Vita hits 60 million over its lifetime like the PSP did then I think they will be very pleased.

Anyways. Summer drought is upon us. They knew the launch being just before this span would result in a long slow grind. I think partly to get it out there and get it going, to let PS Suite get finished, and check for any mad piracy action. One or two teases along the way to E3 like Gravity Rush and maybe Sound Shapes (no one mentions this when ranting about "watered down nonportable console ports"), then do a big blowout at E3 with the CoD Vita, maybe some Square stuff, the BioShock Vita game and a bunch of others. It only needs a few hits to be really viable as it doesn't have nearly the baggage the PSP had. And I do believe that if Nintendo can carry their handheld mostly single-handed (1st party) then there's no reason Sony can't as well. (No, they don't sell the same volume as Nintendo, I just think that is their own fault.)
Interesting, here in Germany they had a big marketing blitz with lots and lots of TV ads. PSVita is also the focus of the UEFA Champion's League sponsoring of Sony (was PS3 before). It's comparable to American Football play-offs and the Super Bowl (best football teams in Europe compete). Can't get more exposure than that in the relevant target group.

There's a lot of Nintendo avatars in this thread.
As long as they surrender to PS3 it's all good, no?

How long is it going to last when even cheap android phones have better graphics?
Same as with 3DS: As long as there is compelling enough software for people to buy the system.
 

Acheron

Banned
You see these portable experiences as system sellers?

People are going to look at these games and say "oh, that's exactly what I've been looking for! Games I can pick up and play for a couple minutes without a lot of messing around! I have to buy a Vita, now that I know where I can find those bite sized experiences I crave!"

I think the era of a single title selling systems is over. I think Sony should have made a very different Vita with weaker specs. Yes bringing console experiences over is what makes sense given what you've got to play with and the limited reasons of the people who would buy PSV.

I think the biggest issue is that the market for PSV like portables has probably shrunk.
 
It's a tricky balance, isn't it? They can't release console ports and spinoffs because people will say "why should I play this on Vita?" and they can't release archetypal portable games as everyone has an iPhone or DS already. I suggested earlier in this thread that what the Vita needs most are portable-type experiences which actually make use of its unique features. Specifically, its dual-analogues.

I'd say what it needs are brands that people will buy the system for, but gameplay that's unique, quick, and keeps people coming back.

Because he was actually right, Nintendo has that portable pick-up-and-play thing down pretty well...but these games are also their system sellers. People buy for Mario and don't necessarily think to themselves "psh, I could've been playing this game on Wii instead with better graphics."

Heck, on that note, maybe the secret is not having a graphically amazing home console. :)
 
I think the biggest issue is that the market for PSV like portables has probably shrunk.


first-year-nintendo-ds-sales.jpg


Maybe. Maybe not.
 

aeroslash

Member
You see these portable experiences as system sellers?

People are going to look at these games and say "oh, that's exactly what I've been looking for! Games I can pick up and play for a couple minutes without a lot of messing around! I have to buy a Vita, now that I know where I can find those bite sized experiences I crave!"

I am not talking about "bite sized experiences" like you said. I am talking about full blown games, AAA titles, that have to be designed different than the home console counterparts. Why would anyone spend hours in front of a portable, experiencing games when they can have the better experience on the home console?

I really can't imagine someone using his/her VITA (nor 3DS) to play the next COD online for 2 or 3 hours.

The time the gamer spends playing a game on a portable, has always been very low compared to the home consoles and thus the games have to be designed taking that into account. And for me, and i suppose many others, Sony has only been trying to put the heavy hitters of the PS2/3 on PSP and VITA without thinking about it. I'm not saying i don't want the AAA experiences on my portable, i'm saying they can't be designed as a home console game put on a portable.
 

sajj316

Member
I don't know ... for every system the worst case scenario is irrelevancy and death. This could've been answered with one post. I could give you the best case but I might as well wait for that thread.
 
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