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Kuramu · Jun 10, 2009

Deku said:
I doubt NES would still be used today. The reason they were slow to react was like any other company on top. They got very comfortable and did not want to move away from their very profitable platform.

SFC/SNES was already being planned even if Sega had not entered the market.

I'm exaggerating a bit of course. I'm sure they had SNES planned. That's the mistake they made. They had the unfortunate task of convincing people to buy the next thing, robbing HW and SW sales from their older platform when it's at its most profitable for 1st and 3rd parties. The result was a console with a smaller userbase and dwindling software support for the people who didn't upgrade

laserbeam · Jun 10, 2009

Fourth Storm said:
100 million in 18 months! Now that's a prediction perhaps more out there than Pachter's. It took Nintendo 3 years to sell 50m (granted there were shortages). If anything, the signs seem to be pointing to a decline. The Wii is not the unrivaled superpower the NES was. The competition is much more fierce these days. If Sony/MS can bring in motion control as well as leverage their value, Nintendo will lose most of its advantage. And as we've seen with the Gamecube and 64, their franchises only count for so much...

Personally, I can probably only stomach one more year of SD gaming.

Wii sales are still Superior to PS2 level with a worldwide recession. They are not the Elevator to heaven level they were but they are still insane when put into proper context of previous generations.

Vinci · Jun 10, 2009

laserbeam said:
Wii sales are still Superior to PS2 level with a worldwide recession. They are not the Elevator to heaven level they were but they are still insane when put into proper context of previous generations.

Also, it would be reasonable to expect a resurgence in the recently most quiet region, Japan, coming August 1st.

michaelpachter · Jun 10, 2009

Mama Robotnik said:
Is it a case that you form assumptions based on what judgements would make business sense for the company to follow? Or is it more based on history of a company and what you'd expect given their business history and philosophy? Or do you form a number of possible scenarios and narrow them down to a most-likely path? Or something else entirely?

Since you are something of a gif-celebrity (serious props to you), I'll give you my secret: Every one of my forecasts is based upon a subjective view that all players in the industry will behave rationally. I'm an eminently rational fellow myself, and although I can't cite the number of pixels in Link's sword, I know most of the nuts and bolts about the industry. When I am wrong, it's usually because I overestimate one or more constituent's reaction to a move made by another. For example, I thought that more Sony fanboys would support PS3 at $599 than turned out to be the case. Often, I just plain guess wrong, as I did with the cost curve for PS3. It never occurred to me that it would cost over $400 to manufacture three years after launch, but that is shaping up to be the case.

So to answer your question directly, the first guess was the right one. I base my judgments on what I think makes the most business sense. I tend to discount company history, and sometimes, that is a mistake. In this thread, many people say Nintendo won't launch a new Wii because it is not like them to do so. In my view, they HAVE to do so, or risk losing sales to Sony and Microsoft, who are each hopeful of capturing the "trade up" market.

I completely discount company philosophy, as most companies change over time. Look at Sony this cycle, with a bleeding edge box. Last cycle, they put a 295 Mhz processor (waiting for the flames in case I'm off by 10%) when Microsoft chose a 733Mhz (more flames coming). They chose commodity over cutting edge. Before that, they went 32 bit when Nintendo went 64 bit. The PS3 is a deviation from their past philosophy, and may be what got Kutaragi the boot.

As Donny will attest (he's on my distribution), I write well over 1000 pages of this stuff each year, so I don't spend a lot of time on "scenarios". Almost all of my "predictions" are responses to reporter questions, and my answers are usually on the fly. That was the case with Wii HD (Bonus Round in 2007), 4 million WoW accounts (NY Times), and many others. I'm a bit more thoughtful when I publish a note, but only slightly more thoughtful, since I write 20 or more pages of notes a week.

I don't expect anyone to take me as a soothsayer, just take my opinion as it is intended: an educated guess designed to promote discussion.

In the next gif, can I be someone cool?

Fourth Storm · Jun 10, 2009

Vinci said:
It's as if you still think Sony and Microsoft are relevant in Nintendo's world. Odd concept.

They become so as soon as their sales start eating into Wii sales and with the right price (MS is already pretty much there) and software like EA Sports Active, that may start to happen. Iwata himself said that with the introduction of competing motion control schemes, they may find themselves in a "red ocean." That seems to point to relevance, no?

donny2112 · Jun 10, 2009

Vinci said:
Also, it would be reasonable to expect a resurgence in the recently most quiet region, Japan, coming August 1st.

Offset by lower yoy comparisons in the U.S., offset by higher December comparisons in the U.S., resulting in flat planned Wii shipments this year. If twelve months from now Nintendo is at 75 million Wiis, I think it reasonable to say that after 18 months Nintendo will be approaching 100 million Wiis worldwide. Just depends on how wide a net you cast with the "approaching" term.

professor_t · Jun 10, 2009

The greatest thing ever would be if Nintendo went back to traditional controlls with its next console.

MS & Sony: Holy shit, what do we do now?!?

Fourth Storm · Jun 10, 2009

donny2112 said:
Offset by lower yoy comparisons in the U.S., offset by higher December comparisons in the U.S., resulting in flat planned Wii shipments this year. If twelve months from now Nintendo is at 75 million Wiis, I think it reasonable to say that after 18 months Nintendo will be approaching 100 million Wiis worldwide. Just depends on how wide a net you cast with the "approaching" term.

Where are you finding your data for comparison?

tetrisgrammaton · Jun 10, 2009

how about them gta sales

OldJadedGamer · Jun 10, 2009

michaelpachter said:
When I am wrong, it's usually because I overestimate one or more constituent's reaction to a move made by another. For example, I thought that more Sony fanboys would support PS3 at $599 than turned out to be the case.

So were you in the same thinking as David Reeves when he claimed the PS3 would sell 5 million with no games? I still don't see how anyone would think that a $600 dollar system would fly off gaming shelves. I don't think any brand loyalty is that high.

MisterHero · Jun 10, 2009

michaelpachter said:
In the next gif, can I be someone cool?

NO

also I would argue that Sony and later MS have no real strategy other than to try and do anything to muscle Nintendo out of the market. I can't say that way of thinking would help me create monthly sales projections with actual numbers (your work is very thorough, as everyone would probably concede) but it's worked for me predicting their moves so far. :lol

donny2112 · Jun 10, 2009

michaelpachter said:
As Donny will attest (he's on my distribution), I write well over 1000 pages of this stuff each year, so I don't spend a lot of time on "scenarios".

Yep.

professor_t said:
The greatest thing ever would be if Nintendo went back to traditional controlls with its next console.

Already there. Can't get more traditional for Nintendo than going back to the NES controller.

Maybe the next Wiimote will have the SNES controller layout on it.

Starchasing · Jun 10, 2009

michaelpachter said:
I completely discount company philosophy, as most companies change over time.

It takes time for a company to change its philosophy, you should take in consideration their most recent philosophy at least.

Also i dont think the ps3 is any different than the ps2 or 1 ... almost the same controller, better graphics... and better storage device

Saint Gregory · Jun 10, 2009

professor_t said:
The greatest thing ever would be if Nintendo went back to traditional controlls with its next console.

MS & Sony: Holy shit, what do we do now?!?

I would laugh oh so hard if that happened. It would be the biggest mindfuck in the history of gaming.

Iwata at E3 '11 to MS and Sony:"what exactly are you guys flailing your arms all about for?"

MS and Sony:"But.. but you said..."

Iwata

laughs)

donny2112 · Jun 10, 2009

Fourth Storm said:
Where are you finding your data for comparison?

Nintendo's financials. They've shipped 50.39 million Wiis worldwide by the end of March and projected another 26 million by March 2010. Add another six months onto that, and they'd be in the 80s or low 90s, depending on how this year actually goes.

Edit:
Oh, wait. You're talking about the yoy comparisions. That's just from the NPD threads for last year and expected trending (down in the summer compared to 2008, way up in December without shortages hampering things) for this year.

Vinci · Jun 10, 2009

Fourth Storm said:
They become so as soon as their sales start eating into Wii sales and with the right price (MS is already pretty much there) and software like EA Sports Active, that may start to happen. Iwata himself said that with the introduction of competing motion control schemes, they may find themselves in a "red ocean." That seems to point to relevance, no?

If Microsoft were capable of creating a Wii Sports type experience, they would have already; if they could've created Wii Fit, the same thing. The difference is that Microsoft is a tech company and Nintendo is an entertainment company. So if you're asking me if I think Microsoft converting the blue ocean into a red ocean is a threat to Nintendo - the answer is no, because that works both ways. And in this case, one is the incumbent and the other is playing 'follow the leader.' I've never thought of someone playing 'follow the leader' ever being capable of actually leading.

Nothing Iwata said led me to believe that he's worried in the slightest. A 'red ocean' is especially bad if you're coming late to the party and the tastiest morsels have already run out. I don't think people are as apt to upgrade to Microsoft or Sony's solution as they are continuing with what they've already invested in.

JoshuaJSlone · Jun 10, 2009

Starchasing said:
here is another prediction. This time a lot more conservativem going the dsi way.

Nintendo releases WiiPlus , whenever, and it includes:

wii backwards compatibility
wii remote+
cordless nunchuk
no need for sensor bar

In a world where camera is becoming more important for X360 and PS3's motion controls, and even DSi has it, you think the followup to Wii will forego even the camera/sensor bar relationship? Motion Plus is good, but it's not replace-the-pointer good.

Fourth Storm said:
100 million in 18 months! Now that's a prediction perhaps more out there than Pachter's. It took Nintendo 3 years to sell 50m (granted there were shortages). If anything, the signs seem to be pointing to a decline.

It didn't take 3 years to get to 50 million, but less than 2.5 years. Since launch, production has more than doubled. Looking purely at production, I think they can make something like 2.6 million Wiis a month? In that case, assuming no further production increases they could be in 105 million territory by the end of 2010. You're right that a decline from last year's rates could prevent real sales from getting that high, but it could be close.

michaelpachter · Jun 10, 2009

OldJadedGamer said:
So were you in the same thinking as David Reeves when he claimed the PS3 would sell 5 million with no games? I still don't see how anyone would think that a $600 dollar system would fly off gaming shelves. I don't think any brand loyalty is that high.

Look no farther than Apple with the iPhone. People believed in the company because of its past success with the Mac and the iPod, and gave them the benefit of the doubt that the App Store would be what Apple promised. They traded up to $100 (or higher) monthly data plans to buy a $200 phone because it looked cool, and because they are fiercely loyal to the Apple brand. They still buy expensive Macs because they look cool and because of brand loyalty. Each has comparable (and cheaper) alternatives.

I drive a Porsche (my fifth). There are better cars out there for less money, but there is something about the look, feel, and glances from onlookers that keeps me loyal. I'm really old, and really jaded, but I remember when the Sony brand had that kind of cachet. I thought it would carry the first five million just like Reeves did (he's as old as I am). We were wrong.

Starchasing · Jun 10, 2009

JoshuaJSlone said:
In a world where camera is becoming more important for X360 and PS3's motion controls, and even DSi has it, you think the followup to Wii will forego even the camera/sensor bar relationship? Motion Plus is good, but it's not replace-the-pointer good.

I meant keeping the pointer without the cumbersome bar. How? i dunno

Vinci · Jun 10, 2009

michaelpachter said:
Look no farther than Apple with the iPhone. People believed in the company because of its past success with the Mac and the iPod, and gave them the benefit of the doubt that the App Store would be what Apple promised. They traded up to $100 (or higher) monthly data plans to buy a $200 phone because it looked cool, and because they are fiercely loyal to the Apple brand. They still buy expensive Macs because they look cool and because of brand loyalty. Each has comparable (and cheaper) alternatives.

I drive a Porsche (my fifth). There are better cars out there for less money, but there is something about the look, feel, and glances from onlookers that keeps me loyal. I'm really old, and really jaded, but I remember when the Sony brand had that kind of cachet. I thought it would carry the first five million just like Reeves did (he's as old as I am). We were wrong.

In your defense, it sold a helluva lot more than it should have in its early days based on its price-point and library alone. Not as big an issue in either case anymore, but the fact that it sold at the levels it did at that price? Fucking bizarro for any reasonable consumer.

So yeah, brand loyalty was playing some role - just not to the level predicted.

Starchasing said:
I meant keeping the pointer without the cumbersome bar. How? i dunno

Is it really that 'cumbersome'? I hardly even think about it the vast majority of the time.

donny2112 · Jun 10, 2009

michaelpachter said:
I remember when the Sony brand had that kind of cachet. I thought it would carry the first five million just like Reeves did (he's as old as I am). We were wrong.

At $299 or $399, it probably would have. Sony just went way off the deep end (doubling PS2's launch U.S. price) on costs for the PS3. Elasticity of demand, or something like that.

Starchasing · Jun 10, 2009

Vinci said:
Is it really that 'cumbersome'? I hardly even think about it the vast majority of the time.

No , but i was thinking in the lines that nintendo seems to care more about conveinence that graphics, so getting rid of the bar was a good start, and the same goes for the nunchuk

laserbeam · Jun 10, 2009

Sony dropped everything that made them successful I think on the delusion they had everything wrapped up forever and their sheep would do whatever they said.

The Industry tends to repeat itself in terms of whats gonna happen and that was just totally disregarded. It was already seen several times in the Past overly expensive consoles never win. There will always be a percentage who bite at whatever the cost but that is not enough to win.

The "Gimmick" of the console has a better chance of determining the success than bleeding edge specs ro anything else. The N64 was certainly superior than the PS1 in many ways but the CD was the "gimmick" that Sony used to unseat Nintendo.

Nintendo could have probably done better with the Gamecube last Generation if they had not decided to go with the Mini DVDs. That was the system gimmick that hurt it.

Sony tried to use Blu-Ray as its gimmick since they were successful in using DVD with the PS2 but they failed to realize DVD was already on the scene and guaranteed as the future so the PS2 simply benefitted by offering a cheap entry point to DVD which sold many PS2s for that alone.

Plinko · Jun 10, 2009

Vinci said:
It's as if you still think Sony and Microsoft are relevant in Nintendo's world. Odd concept.

They weren't until E3 (or at least they found out that Sony and Microsoft were developing those motion-sensing capabilities).

New ballgame.

Starchasing · Jun 10, 2009

Plinko said:
They weren't until E3 (or at least they found out that Sony and Microsoft were developing those motion-sensing capabilities).

New ballgame.

new ball game indeed

OldJadedGamer · Jun 10, 2009

michaelpachter said:
Look no farther than Apple with the iPhone. People believed in the company because of its past success with the Mac and the iPod, and gave them the benefit of the doubt that the App Store would be what Apple promised. They traded up to $100 (or higher) monthly data plans to buy a $200 phone because it looked cool, and because they are fiercely loyal to the Apple brand. They still buy expensive Macs because they look cool and because of brand loyalty. Each has comparable (and cheaper) alternatives.

I drive a Porsche (my fifth). There are better cars out there for less money, but there is something about the look, feel, and glances from onlookers that keeps me loyal. I'm really old, and really jaded, but I remember when the Sony brand had that kind of cachet. I thought it would carry the first five million just like Reeves did (he's as old as I am). We were wrong.

I think people bought the iPhone because it's the best phone on the market and has been since it launched. It was leaps and bounds ahead of any other phone on the market at the time of release and just now are competitors just starting to try to catch up. I really don't think it has anything to do with Apple or brand loyality just being an all out better product. The vast majority of people I know personally with an iPhone are Windows users actually.

And I can speak personally as a devout Mac user and I use Macs not because they look cool or because of brand loyalty but because they work and all my past experience with Windows has been horrific to say the least. I would switch in a heartbeat to another OS if it worked as well for me as OSX does. I only use Windows when I'm forced to. The computers looking cool is just a side effect for most users that I know.

But I guess what you missed on game systems is that with your Porches, you can drive it off the lot and you'll have the same enjoyment of it from day one as you will year 10. Game systems aren't like that and need to grow. A PS3 that was sold on day one is a very drastic change from what is sold today from price, to features, to firmware. So selling a launch unit at that premium takes a lot more of a leap of faith from users.

I personally thought from the second the Wii remote was announced at TGS that they would dominate since after all, its' just a DS for your TV. And knowing how anal gamers are about gaming prices there was no way that PS3 would take off at it's launch price. I appreciate you taking the time to respond since my brain just can't accept that 5 million with no games quote. I think some in this industry put too much behind brand quality when gamers really don't care that much.

schuelma · Jun 10, 2009

Serious props to Pachter for even entertaining us fools.

Vinci · Jun 10, 2009

Starchasing said:
No , but i was thinking in the lines that nintendo seems to care more about conveinence that graphics, so getting rid of the bar was a good start, and the same goes for the nunchuk

Wireless nunchuk is good if - and this shouldn't be an 'if,' damn you Nintendo - it has rechargeable batteries as standard. Seriously.

Evlar · Jun 10, 2009

I think gamers exhibit brand loyalty, Console Warz is evidence enough of it (and in my experience some form of Console Warz pops up whenever you have a critical mass of hobbyist gamers together- somewhere between 5 to 10- so it's not a GAF-limited or even internet-limited phenomenon). However, there is also a tendency to build expectations of companies. As an example: Many people who started as loyal Nintendo gamers are among the most vocally critical, even hostile, to Nintendo, as the company didn't meet their expectations or offered products that weren't in line with what he or she were looking for.

As something of a Sony loyalist myself- I've owned all of their consoles and a PSP- I can say the $599 pricepoint was disappointing. As Pachter has said in this thread, Sony made mid-priced but surprisingly resourceful consoles. At least, that's what I thought from buying PS1 and PS2. PlayStation 3 was a wholly different creature, aimed at a market that I barely identified with. I bought in, but it took six months and a lot of circumstance that had nothing to do with Sony's design, chiefly bad press from 360's RROD issues.

If Sony had released a $299 or $399 machine this generation would be very different. I still believe that. Brand loyalty exists but PS3's price broke it.

cartman414 · Jun 10, 2009

I know I'm late here, but...

michaelpachter said:
On May 4, 2005, none of us knew that the PS3 would be $599. I thought that it would be competitively priced, and misjudged the Wii. Also, I thought that Blu-ray would be more popular, as I expected more rapid penetration of HDTV. I was wrong on all three counts. BFD, you're still a jerk.

The issue you overlooked here was that Blu-ray itself was launching at the very same time and by the precedent set by DVD a decade later would be very expensive at launch (and was, with the cheapest dedicated BD player debuting at retail at $1000), and as such, there was no logical way for PS3 to launch at a competitive price. As far as HD penetration goes, even I could tell that decent HD penetration would still be a couple years off. (Not to mention that even ownership of an HD set was no guarantee of interest in usage for gaming at the time.)

UltimaKilo · Jun 10, 2009

Who the hell wrote this stupid piece? :lol

CorwinB · Jun 10, 2009

Deku said:
I've been pretty content where I am and don't need a hardcore Wii machine. But to dismiss that Nintendo will not try to attack that market, which has been something of a haven for the HDtwins to retreat to, so a bit naive.

And again I was a long time doubter of WiiHD. But I'm going to give Pachter the benefit of the doubt and believe there is good intelligence behind his prediction for him to be so consistent on this point for over a year. If it's wrong its his reputation and not mine. But I'm officially behind his bandwagon now.

IIRC, M. Pachter has also been adamant for quite some time that the PS3 would rise to heaven based on various factors including price drops, desirable software coming out, Blu-Ray victory over HD-DVD... Do you think this was also based on solid insider information, or based on working within a certain idea of how the market works (an idea, I might add, that would also have Nintendo rush to the market with an HD-console).

Eteric Rice · Jun 10, 2009

Evlar said:
I think gamers exhibit brand loyalty, Console Warz is evidence enough of it (and in my experience some form of Console Warz pops up whenever you have a critical mass of hobbyist gamers together- somewhere between 5 to 10- so it's not a GAF-limited or even internet-limited phenomenon). However, there is also a tendency to build expectations of companies. As an example: Many people who started as loyal Nintendo gamers are among the most vocally critical, even hostile, to Nintendo, as the company didn't meet their expectations or offered products that weren't in line with what he or she were looking for.

As something of a Sony loyalist myself- I've owned all of their consoles and a PSP- I can say the $599 pricepoint was disappointing. As Pachter has said in this thread, Sony made mid-priced but surprisingly resourceful consoles. At least, that's what I thought from buying PS1 and PS2. PlayStation 3 was a wholly different creature, aimed at a market that I barely identified with. I bought in, but it took six months and a lot of circumstance that had nothing to do with Sony's design, chiefly bad press from 360's RROD issues.

If Sony had released a $299 or $399 machine this generation would be very different. I still believe that. Brand loyalty exists but PS3's price broke it.

I don't think it would be that much different. They would probably be ahead of the 360, but I don't know if they would be ahead of the Wii.

Yes Boss! · Jun 10, 2009

This is great! M. Pachter is fully wearing his heart on his sleeve. I had no idea he knew (and followed) so many specific GAFers. Props! I've always enjoyed your commentary along with N'gai and Shawn Elliots' the most. You should make a guest appearance on Out of the Game!

Neo C. · Jun 10, 2009

BuzzJive said:
The biggest X-Factor that throws off all my predictions is the DSi. Why would they do all the things we're saying they'd be crazy to do: fracture the userbase; release a new version while the old one is still selling like mad; not have a AAA lineup ready at launch; raise the price of their hardware in a global recession; etc...

DSiWare somehow made the risks worth it (despite the fact that Nintendo doesn't even do much to support WiiWare - HEY NINTENDO, REMEMBER WIIWARE?). I'm sure there were other pros (Apple making inroads with iPhone, potential portable VC, whatever), but as outside armchair analysts, I don't think any of us would have made a convincing case for the DSi.

While I agree that Nintendo is often unpredictable and a WiiHD not impossible, lemme just say that we had argued again and again the pros and the cons of taking the GBA slot away.

While I admit that the arguments for keeping the GBA slot are very reasonable and numerous, there are several reasonable arguments against the slot as well.
Was the DSi surprising? Sure, but the success was predictable based on the feature set.

My problem with WiiHD is, that there are way too many arguments against it though. If the WiiHD is somewhat a half-generation step, it only makes sense if we can savely assume that the competitors won't release a new console in a certain time frame. If the WiiHD is a completely new console, it doesn't make sense either, because Nintendo can milk this generation the most. So they won't start the next gen as the first player for sure.

Gahiggidy · Jun 10, 2009

Valtor said:
Next Wii will be called Wii Plus.

How could it not?

Wiimote --> Wii Motion Plus

Wii Fit --> Wii Fit Plus

Wii --> ...?

So there you go. I called it first!

How about...

Wii Augment

...?

CorwinB · Jun 10, 2009

michaelpachter said:
I completely discount company philosophy, as most companies change over time. Look at Sony this cycle, with a bleeding edge box. Last cycle, they put a 295 Mhz processor (waiting for the flames in case I'm off by 10%) when Microsoft chose a 733Mhz (more flames coming). They chose commodity over cutting edge. Before that, they went 32 bit when Nintendo went 64 bit. The PS3 is a deviation from their past philosophy, and may be what got Kutaragi the boot.

Not directly related to what's being discussed, but I can't believe someone within your field of expertise would compare CPUs by clockspeed alone... The PS2 EE was absolutely bleeding-edge when it came out (it was also a nightmare to program for, by most developers' account), whereas Microsoft went with a barely customised Intel Celeron for the original XBox (the XBox also came out later than the PS2). The XBox was much more powerful than the PS2, but CPU had not much to do with it (the advanced GPU, large amount of RAM, and standard HDD were much better reasons). The EE was absolutely not a commodity when it came out (IIRC, the initial shipment of PS2 were awfully low, and CPU shortages may have been part of the reason), and it was as true to Kutaragi's vision as Cell is.

wowzors · Jun 10, 2009

I could see both points of this, in one hand it doesn't seem like a move Nintendo would do based on the fact that in the past they have not had this advantageous position and appear as of now to have no interest in the hardcore crowd. On the other hand with sony and microsoft invading their market it only makes sense to attack the big companies and perhaps slow them down and increase its own profits. Overall seems very reasonable as alot of people seem to forget Nintendo is a company, and like all companies, it comes down to what will make profits and boost sales.

Thunder Monkey · Jun 10, 2009

Hah!

At this rate Pachter isgoing to be coming up with GAF memes.:lol

camineet · Jun 10, 2009

agrajag said:
Wouldn't programmable hardware shaders be a bigger jump in graphics for them than any incremental increase in power?

Yes. I'm not suggesting Wii HD should be some incremental increase in power like Wii was over GCN. It should be a big generational leap. I am talking about Nintendo using a modern GPU with programmable shaders, of the DX11 generation which will be new in late 2009 . But the time Wii 2 comes out, 2 or 3 years later, the industry will have widely accepted DX11, a DX11 update will be out, and DX12 will be on the horizon, but Nintendo won't need more than DX11 which is pretty damn complete. It's got tesselation which can provide alot more detail with less polys. I'm hoping that Wii 2 GPU in 2011 or 2012 isn't below low-end and completely obsolete by PC standards like Hollywood was in 2006. Hollywood (like Flipper) is basicly a 1999 GPU like the original GeForce, but with EDRAM. Hopefully Wii 2 GPU will be in the same generation as XB3, PS4 GPUs, even if Nintendo goes with cheaper tech, less power. The Wii used full sized DVD discs and WiFi, it was no less advanced than Xbox 360 on the disc side and no less advanced than the PS3 on the WiFi side. So hopefully Nintendo doesn't go with massively underpowered graphics tech even if they don't lead the pack with bleeding edge performance.

BorkBork · Jun 10, 2009

Loonz said:
I think the main reason for Nintendo to have such games in their console it's to keep their demographic in their systems, as they move upstream in their gaming tastes, and to get some from the other consoles (same multiplatform games + Mario + Zelda + Metroid = you've won the "hardcore"). That and the tasty royalties they would get from those sales of course .

The royalties really is the icing for a company that makes profit on every console, game, and doodad they sell. They'll try to play nice with third party developers and the rabid hardcore base, but in the end don't expect Nintendo to bend over for them.

Trying to conform to the standards set by other consoles and listening to what their fanbase want got them the Gamecube. Doing things their own wacky way and being laughed out of the room got them the DS and the Wii.

Plinko · Jun 11, 2009

Starchasing said:
new ball game indeed

:lol :lol :lol

You know I was referring to Sony and Microsoft's motion-sensing tech.

Deku · Jun 11, 2009

CorwinB said:
IIRC, M. Pachter has also been adamant for quite some time that the PS3 would rise to heaven based on various factors including price drops, desirable software coming out, Blu-Ray victory over HD-DVD... Do you think this was also based on solid insider information, or based on working within a certain idea of how the market works (an idea, I might add, that would also have Nintendo rush to the market with an HD-console).

Pachter has subsequently clarified his WiiHD prediction, first aired on bonus round in 2007 as being an off the cuff educated guess. Though I still have to give props to him for being very consistent on this matter, and heck barely even budging on the timing of this revised Wii.

His batting average with the PS3 is well known and it was addressed by Pachter himself. But I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here, because once he actually broke down his analysis on GAF and elaborated on the quoted soundbyte, it made a lot of sense. It comes down to Nintendo moving upstream to capture any potential Wii customers from being picked off by the high end consoles as well as picking up customers who haven't yet switched. In that context, it makes much more sense than the natural neo-gaf 1st reaction of 'OMG NINTENDO TO GO HARDCORE'.

It's certainly a much more reasoned position than the 'hur hur hur, Pachter, Reeves, PS3'
'Pachter <insert meme here>' that's been inserted ad homenim as counter arguments.

Now, I'm well aware of the undercurrents going on here and the political nature of this prediction and certain segments of the community will object to it outright for various reasons, one of which being it directly threatens their world view. The other analysis continues to be a dogmatic reading of Nintendo history as if its some sort of religious text. Again, neither objections seem satisfactory, in fact, the 1st is quite self interested in the console wars context.

Flying_Phoenix · Jun 11, 2009

I agree that Nintendo will (and should) go for the serious gamer market, but that's only if their next console already has the casual audience on lock down (assuming that we are solely talking about their next platform).

Eteric Rice · Jun 11, 2009

Flying_Phoenix said:
I agree that Nintendo will (and should) go for the serious gamer market, but that's only if their next console already has the casual audience on lock down (assuming that we are solely talking about their next platform).

How would they get people to migrate to their next console? We don't really know the buying habits of this new audience. They might just say "fuck it" and keep the old system.

MadOdorMachine · Jun 11, 2009

It's probably already been said, but the Wii has plenty of room to drop in price. I think it would be a good idea for them to start releasing the systems with the motion plus attachment included as well. I predict Wii2 in 2011. Also, I almost think they shouldn't bother without some type of head tracking.

laserbeam · Jun 11, 2009

Eteric Rice said:
How would they get people to migrate to their next console? We don't really know the buying habits of this new audience. They might just say "fuck it" and keep the old system.

Which is why I think they need to keep the Wii alive while bringing out the WiiHD then kill off production of the Wii so all future sales are still Wii but of the HD model. The Hardcore crowd is guaranteed to upgrade to the HD model and Nintendo knows how to market to the casuals to get them to upgrade as we have seen with the DS to DS Lite to DSi.

All Nintendo has to do is make sure WiiHD comes in at the 249 pricepoint

Mama Robotnik · Jun 11, 2009

michaelpachter said:
Smart stuff

Thanks for explaining that, it was an interesting read and lets me (and GAF) understand the considerations you make and why. The explanation of predicting through expected rationality is simple, but logical and make sense.

michaelpachter said:
In the next gif, can I be someone cool?

JoJo13 · Jun 11, 2009

Pachter really goes off the deep end sometimes with his predictions.

I mean, he really comes up with some batshit insane theories.

Deku · Jun 11, 2009

Mama Robotnik said:

:lol

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