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EDIT - added Pachter's Podium article.
Story courtesy of Gameindustry.biz.
What does GAF think, are we really a mere year between us and the Wii HD?
EDIT - New article
EDIT #2 - A summary of what has happened in this Epic Thread:
Story courtesy of Gameindustry.biz.
His sales predictions for NPD are usually close, but in terms of grand industy moves such as these I'm wondering what evidence/info Mr Pachter is basing the predictions on.Project Natal to launch as Wii HD spoiler - analyst
Microsoft's motion control technology Project Natal is most likely to be introduced as a spoiler to dampen the launch of an expected high definition upgrade to Nintendo's Wii console.
That's according to Michael Pachter, analyst for Wedbush Morgan, who doesn't believe the new Microsoft tech is likely to launch until after 2010 and only with significant third-party support.
"We think that Project Natal is intended less as a game control scheme than it is as an easy-to-use dashboard control scheme, and we do not expect the device to be launched at retail until it has sufficient third party game support to justify a majority of the installed base to purchase it (we estimate 30 third party games would be sufficient)," wrote Pachter in a note following last week's E3 conference.
"We do not see Project Natal as a Wii killer; rather, we think that Microsoft intends to introduce it at the same time as the launch of the Wii HD, and hopes to hold off Nintendos plans to encroach on Xbox 360 turf after 2010."
Project Natal incorporates motion control, voice and camera recognition, and was shown at E3 not only with basic game prototypes, but also as a demo with users interacting with an AI character.
But Pachter pointed to more integration of online services with Xbox Live as the company's most significant unveiling last week, as it adds Netflix, Facebook, Twitter and Last.fm to the console's offerings.
"We were most impressed by the companys clear enunciation of its strategy to turn the Xbox 360 into an internet and media hub for the living room, and we believe that the most momentous news of the press conference was the opening up of the Xbox Live dashboard to the internet.
"Among Microsofts many announcements, the company unveiled its intention to allow interaction with the Netflix website, to allow free streaming of FM radio through Last.fm, and to allow Xbox Live members to access Facebook and Twitter through the Xbox Live dashboard.
"These announcements demonstrate the power of Xbox Live as a web browser, and signal an intention to convert the 30 million plus installed Xbox 360 base before Apple TV can gain a foothold in the media hub market," he said.
What does GAF think, are we really a mere year between us and the Wii HD?
EDIT - New article
Pachter's Podium: PS3 Price Cut, iPhone 3G S, and a Sincere Apology
Posted June 11, 2009 by James Brightman
Today on IndustryGamers we're happy to introduce a new monthly column with everyone's favorite video game industry analyst: Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter. Each month we will send him five questions to answer regarding top industry news and events we will gladly listen to your suggestions for questions as well (send them to james@industrygamers.com) but we can't promise all will make the final cut.
In this first ever edition of Pachter's Podium, the analyst discusses big E3 games, PS3 pricing, Nintendo and the hardcore audience, and he makes a sincere apology regarding previous statements he made on GameTrailers' Bonus Round show.
IG: Based on what you saw at E3, which game will have the biggest impact this year? How many copies do you estimate it will sell?
MP: I think Modern Warfare 2 will be the biggest selling game, and Wii Motion Plus the best selling overall item that we saw at E3. Other games will do well, but likely not as well as MW2. I thought that Assassin's Creed 2 and Avatar both looked great, but they will be hard pressed to sell as many copies as the 10 million that MW2 will likely sell (6 million U.S., 4 million rest of world).
IG: Rumors are flying that Sony will cut the PS3's price this August before Madden ships. Can they do this without seriously hurting SCE's profitability?
MP: Sony signaled a price cut when they upped their PS3 shipment forecast to 13 million this year, compared to around 10 million each of the last two years. They are not likely to sell 30% more units without a price cut. The question is not whether, but when, and by how much. They can cut by $100 and perhaps see a spike of 30%, or can cut by a lower amount with bundles. I think that their decision will be based upon profits, so I think that they favor a smaller cut (likely $50) with a bundle of Sony first party games (which cost only $1 - 2 each). Look for $349 and a Killzone bundle in October, instead of a Madden cut in August. Their profits will suffer by the amount of the cut multiplied by the number of units sold, so probably 6 - 7 million units at $50, or around $300 - 350 million. They will not make this decision lightly.
IG: Do you feel Nintendo did enough at E3 to finally appease the hardcore crowd? Does it even matter? Do they really need the hardcore?
MP: I think that Nintendo did a great job with all of their constituents. They announced three hardcore games for the Wii (two Mario and a Metroid), and a handful of hardcore games for the DS. They also announced a lot of casual content. Overall, it was a great lineup, but the hardcore fans never seem to get enough from Nintendo. I don't think that it matters if they "need" the hardcore; what matters is that they want to be the console of choice for "everybody", and that includes the hardcore. Nintendo is all-inclusive, and they understand their base customer is hardcore.
IG: What potential do you see in the new iPhone 3G S, which features faster processing for applications, including games? How will this impact the industry?
MP: I see little, if any, impact from the iPhone 3GS. Games are pretty simple, and do nothing to cannibalize DS game sales. If anything, the iPhone expands the market for games by introducing new consumers to the experience.
IG: Are retailers going to pullback on PSP since it's going all digital with PSP Go? How much will this hurt them?
MP: I doubt that retailers will pull back on PSP. The PSP Go HELPS retailers at the outset, as the price point is higher ($249) and there will be a lot of replacement business. Over the long run, it will hurt them because of the elimination of packaged products, but you've never seen retailers refuse to carry iPods (all digital) or TVs (all digital), so why does the gaming press think retailers will revolt against the PSP Go?
Pachter also supplied us with this exclusive apology:
As long as you're giving me a forum, may I please beg your indulgence for a statement? I sincerely regret the choice of words in my response to Geoff Keighley's question in last week's Bonus Round, where I said that Sony is "ripping off" the consumer by pricing the PSP Go at $249.99. I made a poor choice of words, and I do NOT think that Sony is doing anything nefarious in choosing their pricing strategy. The company has the right to price its products at a point that they think is competitive, and has no obligation to sell products at lower than a competitive price. They have been subsidizing purchases of the PS3 since launch, to the tune of 22 million sold at a loss of $100 or more apiece (on average), so if they are able to make a profit on the PSP Go, more power to them. They are pricing at a point that positions the PSP Go competitively with the iPod Touch, and the PSP Go arguably has much more value than the Apple product. Notwithstanding my view that the price point is too high to generate more than a few million units sold, I really think my comment was unfair, and would appreciate your allowing me to clear the air on IndustryGamers.com.
EDIT #2 - A summary of what has happened in this Epic Thread:
![thedarkpachter.gif](http://i563.photobucket.com/albums/ss73/pachterspecial/thedarkpachter.gif)