GaimeGuy said:
I'd like to ask something:
Is there really a reason why people care about Pachter? Just because he's basically the only business analyst that regularly covers hte gaming industry on a week-to-week basis doesn't mean we should pay him any mind.
His articles don't offer any great insights form a business perspective.
I don't believe he has many inside sources of credibility, so he can't be counted on for news leaks or anything of the sort.
His sales estimates/predictions widly differ in accuracy on a per-month basis, and seem to have little correlation with actual sales data, so they aren't reliable at all as early estimates or indicators.
Why do people give him so much attention?
He helps feed Sales Age. A somewhat 'credible' source who does well predicting NPD. Take that away and he's nothing.
legend166 said:
I've always thought 2012 and I still stand by that. By that time they should be able to get PS3 level technology for probably $200, and I think that's what they'll go with. I also think we'll see a combined camera + MotionPlus system out of the box, similar to the PS3 wand. But, obviously, all the required components will be packed in rather than two add ons.
The thing is though, I think this is the safe option. I think if Nintendo did this, they'd be able to grab a lot of their current userbase. Then again, this is Nintendo, and they might go somewhere completely different.
Nintendo has stated that they intend to innovate and utilize their 1st mover position to capitalize on that new market until others copy them. Then, they'll look for another new market. Look at Mario Kart. Luckily, it's software and it takes tremendous skill to replicate all the things that Mario Kart does right. They made up a semi-new genre and have stuck at it, providing a cartoonish racer, avoiding realism, and providing what the consumers wanted: same gameplay with a few new weapons, new characters but it essentially plays the same. For all of Ninty's
alleged distaste of upgraded graphics, it what they do with Mario Kart. A few new courses, a few rehashes, a few new items...bam, a new control mechanic. Yes, it's different but I feel a lil disturbed that Mario Kart Wii has a lot of rehashes. It's what I want but Nintendo is different than what they are painted to be. They understand innovation and they understand what sells. And they understand they those two choices are not mutually exclusive nor attached.
I think that Sony's and MS' motion control schemes would be a bomb if they release them in the 4th or 5th year of the console cycle. I don't think either one will be ready by this Christmas and they are just painted into a corner. They could wait til next gen and risk allowing Ninty to completely take over the market or they could be aggressive and try it out for now. At the very least, they get their hardcore followers to stay. Not to say they'll leave but if Nintendo can extract a bunch of key 3rd party games or exclusives, it would leave them vulnerable. I think Sony and MS would launch these peripherals to counteract Nintendo in a strictly marketplace setting. They don't care about the games or your enjoyment, they just want the best chance possible to avoiding being run over. Now, in some people's eyes, they'll never need a Wii and MS needs to protect that segment. Even if they lose 150 to 50.
I was getting to the bolded: Nintendo would be largely unopposed in Motion tech until next generation. Whatever MS and Sony does, it'll have less impact, sales wise. If Nintendo just puts in a few extra features control wise that MS and Sony cannot replicate, they'll be golden. You still have to make the games. Nintendo has shown they can do that with Motion. 3rd parties have shown they still cannot make game changing or sales changing games involving motion. I don't think Nintendo will move far away from their current plan. I think if MS or Sony moves toward Nintendo in motion or gaming experience, it benefits Nintendo. If they move towards Ninty in price, it prevents Nintendo from spending as much. It provides less of a contrast. I hate to say Ninty is in a no-lose situation but they are set up pretty nicely.
BishopLamont said:
No way will Nintendo make a move first, they're market leader, they have the luxury of stretching the generation for more profits, and at the same can react accordingly to any new consoles without any problems since they have this generation in the bag and most of their R&D work will be for the next generation. Obviously they still have to work to get more new products in this generation, but that will be small compared to what they have in store for next generation. New consoles need a gimmick, all three manufacturers will be trying hard to find it, more power just isn't going to cut it anymore. Either way this generation is going to last a long time like I've said before the market crash was even heard of.
Sony moved first on the PS2 generation and they gave them the generation. I think Nintendo has frequently shown they don't like to move first. Given they'll move a ton of hardware and software, most people will be looking towards them. They have a chance to redefine gaming from 'playstation' back to 'Nintendo' in one generation and could just sit on their laurels. I have a hope: all this R&D is due to Iwata. A new face and the man that lead them to this point. It hopefully isn't just for products that won't see the light of day. Hopefully it'll be a product that'll lead the next generation in affordability, timing and be close in terms of tech. They don't need to be first but they shouldn't be last, as was their inclination in the past. SNES, N64, GCN, and Wii (except for a few territories). I think they like being last and changing their tech as needed. It allowed them to take the risk and come in low budget to protect themselves from failure. But it could give Sony or MS a window to move. I don't think Sony has a lot of options. MS is besting them at their game and has Sony's hardcore customers. Sony doesn't have any exclusives left except for 1st party stuff. They have to jump ahead and provide a killer lineup with motion, free online and hardware reliability, first.
Iwata repeated that idea this E3, but he also said that they wouldn't release a new system just for HD. He basically said that whenever they feel the Wii has done all it can to provide new experiences, they'll launch a new system, and it'll be in HD. However, HD won't be the reason for the new system.