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[MisterHero]

Mr. Pachter, my argument, and my interpretation of what Nintendo has said, is that they do want users to upgrade. But they want users to upgrade to more advanced motion controls, not more advanced graphics. Interface in Nintendo's new religion, and they are looking for converts. Making an HD Wii, to completely stretch out this bad metaphor, would be sacrilegious. I made a long, snooty post discussing this above. What's your take on that?

Not compltely new, technically. Miyamoto had input on all the post-NES controllers as well. Nintendo just made it their focus this time around, because they knew this much of an advance was a big deal.

In Miyamoto Wii Trust

 

[Starchasing]

You're right about Nintendo being focused on interface, and no doubt there will be all sorts of new gadgets like Wii Motion Plus, Wii Vitality Sensor, Wii Fit and Wii knows what else by the time they launch a new console. But just like the Wii is similar in performance to the original Xbox (and an improvement over the GameCube), the next generation from Nintendo will come up to the commodity standard. They would be crazy not to upgrade, and if the other console manufacturers comply by not upgrading the CPU/GPU chipset, Nintendo would be able to convince publishers to port games (think GTA 5) to the Wii Plus.

By the way, Ralph Nader lost the election for Gore, and the world is a disaster because of his ego and the idiots who threw their votes away. You should really think about changing your avatar.

iwata already said that their next console will have HD.

He also said HD doesnt fit with actual Wii plans.

So you aint saying anything new

 

[Vinci]

You're right about Nintendo being focused on interface, and no doubt there will be all sorts of new gadgets like Wii Motion Plus, Wii Vitality Sensor, Wii Fit and Wii knows what else by the time they launch a new console. But just like the Wii is similar in performance to the original Xbox (and an improvement over the GameCube), the next generation from Nintendo will come up to the commodity standard. They would be crazy not to upgrade, and if the other console manufacturers comply by not upgrading the CPU/GPU chipset, Nintendo would be able to convince publishers to port games (think GTA 5) to the Wii Plus.

The thing is, I don't think they care. Nintendo is being pretty stubborn this gen in that regard: Do it their way or get the hell out. If you want to kill yourself fighting the tide, have at it - lord knows, we're seeing companies suffer this gen. They're going to do whatever their 1st parties want, not what 3rd parties want. 3rd parties are free to come along for the ride if they like though.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Who gives a flip about speculating on Wii HD? Nintendo will inevitably push out an HD console, the unknowns are timing and backwards compatibility, neither of which are particularly interesting in the face of...

What the hell is Nintendo spending $370 million in R&D per year on?

For all we know, it was investment for the DSi and the DS2.

It could have nothing to do with the Nintendo Wii.

 

[1-D_FTW]

Is Pachter fishing for a "Well, the Jerk Store called, and they're running out of you." tag? Pretty entertaining thread.

 

[Htown]

I think that is the point, exactly.

Nintendo is going to release a Wii that has similar specs to the Xbox 360 before they advance the technology beyond the 360/PS3. My original "prediction" was that this would happen in 2009, and I made that guess in early 2007. At the time, I didn't expect the Wii to be as popular as it has been (remember Billy Pidgeon's call on the same day that the Wii would be sold out till 2009?), and I thought that the PS3 would be at the $249 price point by holiday 2009. Both were wrong.

Given the popularity of the Wii, Nintendo can milk it for another 18 months. It's possible that they can go two years, so maybe it's 2011, but it's coming. The collective wisdom of Nintendo is greater than my own, and if I can see that it's in their best interest to upgrade to the 360 standard, they can probably see that as well.

I think this is where I run into problems with the logic.

How exactly is it in their best interest? By NOT entering the graphics/power race, they have made their most successful console in a very long time. And it is clear that the vast majority of people who buy the Wii, even those who own HDTVs, don't care at all that it's not putting out at 720p or 1080p or whatever.

And if the idea is that the hardcore need HD for their games, I don't think that's true, either. Do we think that the number of copies Nintendo is going to sell of Mario Galaxy 2 or Metroid or Zelda is IN ANY WAY dependent on the output resolution or texture detail that comes from the hardware?

Nintendo will upgrade when they think the current hardware is not good enough for the games they want to make, and not when they feel "hardcore" gamers want some extra lines of resolution. That's why we have the motion plus now, since the out-of-the-box Wii remote wasn't good enough for what they want to do. There has been no indication that I can see that the power limitations of the graphics hardware are affecting the games Nintendo is making, in any way other than "there's not enough detail on Mario's hat."

What about releasing a Wii HD would be in Nintendo's best interest?

 

[PSGames]

Didn't Nintendo just say at their E3 conference that they are focusing more on hardcore gamers now?

 

[tinfoilhatman]

You're right about Nintendo being focused on interface, and no doubt there will be all sorts of new gadgets like Wii Motion Plus, Wii Vitality Sensor, Wii Fit and Wii knows what else by the time they launch a new console. But just like the Wii is similar in performance to the original Xbox (and an improvement over the GameCube), the next generation from Nintendo will come up to the commodity standard. They would be crazy not to upgrade, and if the other console manufacturers comply by not upgrading the CPU/GPU chipset, Nintendo would be able to convince publishers to port games (think GTA 5) to the Wii Plus.

By the way, Ralph Nader lost the election for Gore, and the world is a disaster because of his ego and the idiots who threw their votes away. You should really think about changing your avatar.

Sorry but anyone that thinks Sony or especially Microsoft will stand still on the technology front is crazy, there's already allot of info our there that points to Microsoft already hard at work on a next gen CPU\GPU but supposedly they won't pull the plug on 360 as quickly as they did on the Xbox original.

All signs point to the fist 2 generation of Xbox720 games being backward compatible playable on the 360, good luck countering this strategy.

 

[gkryhewy]

Is Pachter fishing for a "Well, the Jerk Store called, and they're running out of you." tag? Pretty entertaining thread.

:lol nice.

 

[TheKingsCrown]

For all we know, it was investment for the DSi and the DS2.

It could have nothing to do with the Nintendo Wii.

It is prob both. They always start developing their next console when their previous launches.

Let's face it, they are developing the DS successor and their next console, whatever it is.

 

[Vinci]

Didn't Nintendo just say at their E3 conference that they are focusing more on hardcore gamers now?

On their terms, not the hardcore gamers'. As others have mentioned, Nintendo cannot compete with Sony and Microsoft on this front by playing the same game - they have to do something distinct or who the hell cares?

 

[PSGames]

What about releasing a Wii HD would be in Nintendo's best interest?

You are acting like there is no money to be made in the hardcore market. The 360+PS3 base is larger than the Wii base and buys more software if I'm not mistaken. Nintendo has the casual market locked up, they'd be stupid to not go after the hardcore market as well.

 

[Tiktaalik]

What the hell is Nintendo spending $370 million in R&D per year on?

Almost anything can be thrown into R&D. If Nintendo spends $10 million on a game concept that ends up being mediocre and they shelve it half way through development then that's R&D.

Most is probably R&D in the traditional sense, but there's also at least some portion of that that's code word for "failed projects." EA posted a huge R&D cost the year they shelved Tiberium.

 

[Vinci]

You are acting like there is no money to be made in the hardcore market. The 360+PS3 base is larger than the Wii base and buys more software if I'm not mistaken. Nintendo has the casual market locked up, they'd be stupid to not go after the hardcore market as well.

The Wii has sold over 50 million. That leaves a helluva lot more people that still don't play games to capture. They're not done yet.

 

[Flachmatuch]

Nintendo is not focused on "interface", they're looking at how games are part of everyday life and what the complete "game experience" is becoming. Interface is just one part of that. Wii, for example, is nothing in itself, it had to have the channels and Wii Sports and Play and the whole concept of "family play" etc for its success. Wii Fit is not just the balance board, but the way you can "integrate" it into your daily life as an excercise machine etc. Interface wars, as in interface technology wars, is not the real focus for Nintendo imo, because they have a much more complex vision.

On their terms, not the hardcore gamers'. As others have mentioned, Nintendo cannot compete with Sony and Microsoft on this front by playing the same game - they have to do something distinct or who the hell cares?

Also, maybe they think that traditional technology-centered game creation focused on a narrow and well-known "American teen" type demographic is peaking (ie. reaching maximum market size and profit rate), and it's not a good strategy to join a business at its peak as you can only go down

 

[Htown]

Didn't Nintendo just say at their E3 conference that they are focusing more on hardcore gamers now?

"Hardcore", used in the sense of "not casual", is not synonymous with "HD". It's about the type of game the user plays.

Again, how many people do you think are going to skip buying the next Mario or Metroid or Zelda because it's not in HD? Where is that audience that loves Nintendo games, but JUST CAN'T HANDLE playing them in 480p? How big do you think that is?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So yes, I called it, and I did so in 2007. The actual date is irrelevant, I called the migration of the Wii to the current next generation standard, and am still calling it.

But, Michael... "Duh" comes to mind. I don't think we could find anyone to disagree with the idea that at some point Nintendo would release a console that utilizes resolutions higher than the GameCube. After seeing Wii the idea that they wouldn't go for something an order of magnitude more powerful than PS3 would surprise few, either. Actually the biggest disagreement would probably come from that group that really thinks the next system will use even further overclocked GameCube chips. If the specifics like date don't matter, it doesn't seem like much of a prediction.

Motion+? The scrapped new handheld design? The next console design? Combination?

And these are probably the tip of the iceberg that we actually hear about.

Pachter, why are you interacting with GAF? You have almost no upside and tremendous downside.

But doesn't that apply so well to almost all of us here?

By the way, Ralph Nader lost the election for Gore, and the world is a disaster because of his ego and the idiots who threw their votes away. You should really think about changing your avatar.

Are you sure you're not just trying to derail a thread about you?

 

[Hcoregamer00]

What about releasing a Wii HD would be in Nintendo's best interest?

Simple, the developers.

I read in many threads an assertion that most developers hate that the Wii is not a great development platform, because they cannot share resources from consoles like the PS3 and the X360. They spent millions of dollars making engines and hiring artists to make graphics, only to find out that they cannot use the investment on the market leader.

When you have a development culture that shuns older hardware, moving the Wii to a platform with High-Definition Display and Graphics on par with the X360 and PS3 will give it a large advantage because it has the imagination of the market, while fixing the problems of the Wii, whether they are real or perceived.

 

[Evlar]

In my view Nintendo doesn't care about HD or about new interface methods- that is, they don't care about those things for their own sake. Nintendo has, does, and will continue to care first and foremost about two things. The R&D and marketing departments cater to the preferences of their software designers, and many of those software designers are tasked to find ways to expand the gaming market in ways that favor Nintendo.

So many people looking at this industry have the mindset of tech geeks- the hardware justifies its own existence just by its capabilities, and software are tools to tap into the hardware's potential. This is neatly backwards from the way Nintendo's current regime thinks about hardware and software. In their world software is central and hardware is an enabler.

Nintendo hardware (under the Iwata-Miyamoto regime) will always exist to lay tracks down for Nintendo's games. "They consider interface king" or "they have to push HD before it's too late" and such lines of thought are all wrong, and you won't be able to predict exactly what they're planning unless you can guess what kind of games their internal studios are brainstorming right now. Good luck with that.

 

[AniHawk]

It's pretty weird to think that Nintendo not only milked the Gamecube for a decade, but they went ahead and made it their best-selling console ever.

 

[MisterHero]

Nintendo is not focused on "interface", they're looking at how games are part of everyday life and what the complete "game experience" is becoming. Interface is just one part of that. Wii, for example, is nothing in itself, it had to have the channels and Wii Sports and Play and the whole concept of "family play" etc for its success. Wii Fit is not just the balance board, but the way you can "integrate" it into your daily life as an excercise machine etc. Interface wars, as in interface technology wars, is not the focus for Nintendo imo, because they have a much more complex vision.

That's the idea, but the remote is how the users interact with the hardware itself. Yeah, it's clear with their early commercials and such that they are selling a whole experience, much more than when they were designing their past controllers.

 

[Flachmatuch]

Simple, the developers.

I read in many threads an assertion that most developers hate that the Wii is not a great development platform, because they cannot share resources from consoles like the PS3 and the X360. They spent millions of dollars making engines and hiring artists to make graphics, only to find out that they cannot use the investment on the market leader.

When you have a development culture that shuns older hardware, moving the Wii to a platform with High-Definition Display and Graphics on par with the X360 and PS3 will give it a large advantage because it has the imagination of the market, while fixing the problems of the Wii, whether they are real or perceived.

Since Nintendo is not in trouble but a lot of developers are, exactly because of their basic "bigger is better" strategy, who do you think should change?

 

[Starchasing]

Simple, the developers.

I read in many threads an assertion that most developers hate that the Wii is not a great development platform, because they cannot share resources from consoles like the PS3 and the X360. They spent millions of dollars making engines and hiring artists to make graphics, only to find out that they cannot use the investment on the market leader.

When you have a development culture that shuns older hardware, moving the Wii to a platform with High-Definition Display and Graphics on par with the X360 and PS3 will give it a large advantage because it has the imagination of the market, while fixing the problems of the Wii, whether they are real or perceived.

thats why nintendo makes money and developers dont...

can you guess wich one will change their ways?

 

[Hcoregamer00]

It is prob both. They always start developing their next console when their previous launches.

Let's face it, they are developing the DS successor and their next console, whatever it is.

Of course, consoles are made over a period of many years.

They probably started working on Gamecube 2, which was a console that was likely near PS3 and X360 levels, until they realized that the current strategy was a failure. They likely had contingency plans should the Wii be a failure, but the success likely changed the strategy in the future.

We don't know what Nintendo's vision for the next handheld console and home console are, but one fact is obvious, they are working on it using the current strategy as a base since it brought the company so much success in the gaming market.

 

[Flachmatuch]

In my view Nintendo doesn't care about HD or about new interface methods- that is, they don't care about those things for their own sake. Nintendo has, does, and will continue to care first and foremost about two things. The R&D and marketing departments cater to the preferences of their software designers, and many of those software designers are tasked to find ways to expand the gaming market in ways that favor Nintendo.

So many people looking at this industry have the mindset of tech geeks- the hardware justifies its own existence just by its capabilities, and software are tools to tap into the hardware's potential. This is neatly backwards from the way Nintendo's current regime thinks about hardware and software. In their world software is central and hardware is an enabler.

Nintendo hardware (under the Iwata-Miyamoto regime) will always exist to lay tracks down for Nintendo's games. "They consider interface king" or "they have to push HD before it's too late" and such lines of thought are all wrong, and you won't be able to predict exactly what they're planning unless you can guess what kind of games their internal studios are brainstorming right now. Good luck with that.

Yep. But if you look at channels and the non-gaming stuff they're doing with the DSi etc, it's even more general than that. They want gaming to become like TV, ie. a part of everyday life for normal people.

 

[Scrubking]

1. Pachter is an idiot
2. Hd is not going to fix any perception problems for Nintendo - especially after the Wii
3. Wii has proven that HD means shit to the vast majority of consumers
4. This desperate attempt to wish Nintendo into the HD realm is beyond pathetic
5. Nintendo's philosophy is about games, gameplay and fun - not technology pissing contests

Seriously, does this place have to have a Wii HD thread every fucking 3 days? Accept the Wii for what it is or move the fuck on.

 

[kame-sennin]

By the way, Ralph Nader lost the election for Gore, and the world is a disaster because of his ego and the idiots who threw their votes away. You should really think about changing your avatar.

Um... let's focus on video game analysis

I agree with your point about component standards though.

 

[SLYspyda]

The problem with the HD Wii theory is that it represents a massive misunderstanding of Nintendo's corporate strategy. Nintendo is attempting to disrupt the games industry by shifting the line of progress from increasing horse power to increasing interaction. Nintendo is creating a new generation of gamers (both the older expanded audience and children) whose concept of gaming revolves around physical interaction, or at least, ease of use. Look at Nintendo's best sellers; Wii Fit, Wii Sports, and Mario Kart. All of these games have crummier graphics than other games released by Nintendo! Why? Because Nintendo is trying to remove graphics as a metric for progress. In doing so, they remove many of their competitors greatest strengths (I speak of both manufacturers and third parties, ergo the lack of support).

This is why at the beginning of this generation, Nintendo said they would not be competing with Sony and Microsoft. Because they were going to remove the very paradigm on which Sony and Microsoft compete. And if they can convince an entirely new generation of gamers that graphics don't matter, but interface does, while simultaneously leading the industry in interface advancements...

You can see where they're going with this. Nintendo's rejection of high end graphics and pimping of motion controls is a very hostile competitive strategy. Sony and Microsoft have seen that threat and are attempting to follow Nintendo. With their new motion control devices; they are competing on the new paradigm that Nintendo has set. Ergo (concordantly, vis a vi), if every console improvement is based on motion control or physical interaction (Natal, Sony wand, motion plus, balance board, heart rate monitor), than Nintendo will always (not really, but they are for now) have home-court advantage.

Baring all that in mind, why the fuck would Nintendo make an HD Wii? Making an HD Wii would be going backwards for Nintendo. It would be going back to the days when improving graphics meant improving the experience, and it would be playing a game that Sony and Microsoft have already won. Nintendo has set up the chess board so that Sony and Microsoft are now at least one move behind, and are racing to catch up. Turning around and following your lagging competitors by doing what they already do best is not exactly a fucking masterstroke.

Do you folks understand that Nintendo WILL eventually release a next console? What's all the argument for? "NO WAY, NINTENDO WONT RELEASE ANOTHER CONSOLE!!" wtf?


With Natal, MS already has interactivity that exceeds that of the Nintendo. So if that's the case next year and with X360 already cheaper than the Wii, Nintendo isn't gonna be doing anyone any favors by having unappealing visuals that aren't even close to what the 360 can do.

The "It's not all about graphics" argument only works when the Interaction level for the Wii is way past that of other consoles. When other consoles now have more interaction, a different approach is needed.

It's not an arms race anymore, Nintendo has made everyone slow down and that's a good thing especially as far as costs are concerned. So now, they are capable of making a nice leap in visuals and it not cost that much.

 

[tinfoilhatman]

When you have a development culture that shuns older hardware, moving the Wii to a platform with High-Definition Display and Graphics on par with the X360 and PS3 will give it a large advantage because it has the imagination of the market, while fixing the problems of the Wii, whether they are real or perceived.

Please explain how Wii games will EVER be "on par" with PS360 games, upping the fillrate so it can output at 720p isn't even close to "bringing it on par" with PS360.

 

[kame-sennin]

Do you folks understand that Nintendo WILL eventually release a next console? What's all the argument for? "NO WAY, NINTENDO WONT RELEASE ANOTHER CONSOLE!!" wtf?

I think donny made the key point of clarification earlier; when Nintendo releases a new console, it will have HD, but that will not be the reason for the upgrade. Basically, it will be HD because that will be the television standard by that time, but it will not be a selling point.

 

[Scrubking]

With Natal, MS already has interactivity that exceeds that of the Nintendo.

The "It's not all about graphics" argument only works when the Interaction level for the Wii is way past that of other consoles. When other consoles now have more interaction, a different approach is needed.

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[Flachmatuch]

Do you folks understand that Nintendo WILL eventually release a next console? What's all the argument for? "NO WAY, NINTENDO WONT RELEASE ANOTHER CONSOLE!!" wtf?

Not reading the OP is one thing, but please at least read the title of the thread.

With Natal, MS already has interactivity that exceeds that of the Nintendo. So if that's the case next year and with X360 already cheaper than the Wii, Nintendo isn't gonna be doing anyone any favors by having unappealing visuals that aren't even close to what the 360 can do.

The "It's not all about graphics" argument only works when the Interaction level for the Wii is way past that of other consoles. When other consoles now have more interaction, a different approach is needed.

It's not an arms race anymore, Nintendo has made everyone slow down and that's a good thing especially as far as costs are concerned. So now, they are capable of making a nice leap in visuals and it not cost that much.

As long as Microsoft can't create stuff like Wii Fit and Sports, it doesn't matter what technology they have.

 

[norinrad21]

At this rate, i would say we know more about

Christianity
The Church of Scientology and the coming of Jesus Christ of Nazareth than we do of what goes on in that little building located in Kyoto.

 

[MisterHero]

Nintendo hardware (under the Iwata-Miyamoto regime) will always exist to lay tracks down for Nintendo's games. "They consider interface king" or "they have to push HD before it's too late" and such lines of thought are all wrong, and you won't be able to predict exactly what they're planning unless you can guess what kind of games their internal studios are brainstorming right now. Good luck with that.

I understand this is not entirely about interface, but this is getting more focus because of what MS and Sony are doing.

That's what Nintendo's always done. The N64 controller was completed while they were making Super Mario 64. All the games that came after were designed around it though, because they just couldn't replace them. The games themselves are known for their ease of control and accessibility.

The Wii would have been much harder to predict had it not been for the DS, which itself was an evolution of GC-GBA connectivity. Obviously they had been thinking about it for a long time.

 

[Flachmatuch]

The Wii would have been much harder to predict had it not been for the DS, which itself was an evolution of GC-GBA connectivity. Obviously they had been thinking about it for a long time.

That's interesting, what do you mean?

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Please explain how Wii games will EVER be "on par" with PS360 games, upping the fillrate so it can output at 720p isn't even close to "bringing it on par" with PS360.

I never said that my assumption on "Wii HD" hinged on the fact that it was just a Wii with HD display modes. My definition of Wii HD is essentially Wii 2 with BC, it seems to contradict your definition of a Wii successor.

As for games, I base it on the assumption that those developers that ignore the Wii will not do so for the next iteration since it will throw away the Wii's perceived weakness, the graphics. The game quality between the two is not at parity because of the graphical difference of the machines.

 

[Tiktaalik]

When Natal and Sony's technology surfaces, and if it has compelling launch software, that could genuinely be tough for Nintendo if it really starts to make them seem irrelevant.

If Nintendo does release some new console around this period, perhaps late 2011, they'll spin it as "well we ran out of things to do on the Wii and we had to advance the tech to realize our creative vision etc.."

 

[PSGames]

The Wii has sold over 50 million. That leaves a helluva lot more people that still don't play games to capture. They're not done yet.

E3 Conference Iwata said:

3 Groups: Active, Never, and Maybe

Active group: 295 Million (Iwata calls them "big software purchasers")

Maybe: 149 Million

There's a much larger hardcore/active market than casual market from what Iwata is saying. And I believe graphics/HD are very important to this demographic.

 

[evilromero]

How does this guy get off just spouting wild guesses? A Wii HD going after the 360 market doesn't groove at all with Nintendo's philosophy. It's like them admitting their blue ocean strategy worked, but now it's time to jump back into the red ocean.

 

[polyh3dron]

But Cammie told me that the Wii was already in 4D.

 

[PSGames]

1. Pachter is an idiot
2. Hd is not going to fix any perception problems for Nintendo - especially after the Wii
3. Wii has proven that HD means shit to the vast majority of consumers
4. This desperate attempt to wish Nintendo into the HD realm is beyond pathetic
5. Nintendo's philosophy is about games, gameplay and fun - not technology pissing contests

Seriously, does this place have to have a Wii HD thread every fucking 3 days? Accept the Wii for what it is or move the fuck on.

1. Was this needed?
2. HD is to expand their market not "fix any perception problems"
3. That's bullshit PS3+360 is larger than the Wii audience, plus they buy more software
4. ok
5. I know this may be shocking, but you can have great gameplay and fun with great graphics at the same time.

 

[Vinci]

In my view Nintendo doesn't care about HD or about new interface methods- that is, they don't care about those things for their own sake. Nintendo has, does, and will continue to care first and foremost about two things. The R&D and marketing departments cater to the preferences of their software designers, and many of those software designers are tasked to find ways to expand the gaming market in ways that favor Nintendo.

So many people looking at this industry have the mindset of tech geeks- the hardware justifies its own existence just by its capabilities, and software are tools to tap into the hardware's potential. This is neatly backwards from the way Nintendo's current regime thinks about hardware and software. In their world software is central and hardware is an enabler.

Nintendo hardware (under the Iwata-Miyamoto regime) will always exist to lay tracks down for Nintendo's games. "They consider interface king" or "they have to push HD before it's too late" and such lines of thought are all wrong, and you won't be able to predict exactly what they're planning unless you can guess what kind of games their internal studios are brainstorming right now. Good luck with that.

Exactly. Nintendo sees no inherent value to online gaming or HD at the moment. None of their software sales are predicated on either feature. Now if internal designs come up in which they really need a strong online system, we could very well get one - but for now, it's a token effort.

Seriously, do people think Nintendo is so incompetent when it comes to engineering that the online system they currently have is really the best they could do? Really?

 

[norinrad21]

It's pretty weird to think that Nintendo not only milked the Gamecube for a decade, but they went ahead and made it their best-selling console ever.

:lol :lol :lol :lol Damn you, its not a GC

 

[Vinci]

E3 Conference Iwata said:

3 Groups: Active, Never, and Maybe

Active group: 295 Million (Iwata calls them "big software purchasers")

Maybe: 149 Million

There's a much larger hardcore/active market than casual market from what Iwata is saying. And I believe graphics/HD are very important to this demographic.

You're suggesting that the Active group is composed primarily of people who want graphics/HD and nothing else will do?

 

[kame-sennin]

Well he is just from marketing... he was trying to sell his pitch.

I disagree. Motion plus, Wii Sports Resort, featuring the Conduit at E3, and Team Ninja Metroid all seem like attempts to turn the expanded audience into core gamers and bring core gamers into the new market. I just read your post on how Nintendo tackles gaming barriers, btw. It was excellent.

In my view Nintendo doesn't care about HD or about new interface methods- that is, they don't care about those things for their own sake. Nintendo has, does, and will continue to care first and foremost about two things. The R&D and marketing departments cater to the preferences of their software designers, and many of those software designers are tasked to find ways to expand the gaming market in ways that favor Nintendo.

So many people looking at this industry have the mindset of tech geeks- the hardware justifies its own existence just by its capabilities, and software are tools to tap into the hardware's potential. This is neatly backwards from the way Nintendo's current regime thinks about hardware and software. In their world software is central and hardware is an enabler.

Nintendo hardware (under the Iwata-Miyamoto regime) will always exist to lay tracks down for Nintendo's games. "They consider interface king" or "they have to push HD before it's too late" and such lines of thought are all wrong, and you won't be able to predict exactly what they're planning unless you can guess what kind of games their internal studios are brainstorming right now. Good luck with that.

This is completely accurate. Speaking only for myself, I focus on the "interface is king" line of reasoning because that is the phase of Nintendo's strategy we are dealing with currently (now that motion plus has been launched), and it is the part of Nintendo's strategy that would be diminished by an HD Wii. I do agree however, that motion controls are simply a means to an end - that end being serving the needs of new customers.

 

[Deku]

Michael Pachter's been on the Wii HD theme for over a year now.

Anal-cysts usually like to do hit and run predictions and are keen to not be associated too closely with one particular prediction, even if they do make the occasional outrageous or sensationalistic claim of X is doomed, they rarely repeat it often enough for it to stick.

I think Michael Pachter has some real insider info to continue on this bandwagon for so long, and strategically, it is advantageous for Nintendo to cut off Sony and Microsoft's last ditch attempts to make this unprofitable generation profitable by riding on their technological behemoths well into 2015.

 

[Saint10118]

As donny and others have mentioned above, a Wii HD will not be the primary reason for a new console iteration from Iwata's own mouth, however, I don't understand why upgrading to component standards as Mr. Pachter pointed out shouldn't be seen as an absolute necessity. Even at E3 we heard multiple times from Miyamoto and others about how New Super Mario Bros Wii was pushing the Wii hardware to its limit to incorporate a smooth 4-player experience. Why then can't some understand that an increase in processing power to something similar to what the HD-consoles currently possess be seen as a necessity for providing enhanced interactivity?

Pokemon MMO? Brawl with Galaxy-esque gameplay components? Expansion of the media services they've already started trickling out in Japan?

Who knows what Nintendo would be able to implement that would allow them to further their philosophy on expanding gaming and interactivity with additional processing power? Regardless, making the next Wii iteration HD seems to me as only an acknowledgment of the penetration of HD-TVs in the marketplace, not as a benchmark they actively are striving for.

 

[kame-sennin]

You're suggesting that the Active group is composed primarily of people who want graphics/HD and nothing else will do?

This is why I made the analogy about religion. Nintendo wants active gamers, but they want them on terms that are beneficial to Nintendo. They want to convert active gamers to the new values that have brought in the expanded audience. For the most part, that has been interface in lieu of graphics (though I understand that this could change in the future) - and if they can convert the active gamers to these new values, than MS and Sony's launch strategies will have been invalidated.

 

[Deku]

Also note that Michel Pachter is an analyst not a techie gamer. Wii HD is probably his shorthand for a revised/more capable/more powerful Wii, which will support HD, but higher video output resolutions not be its most significant upgrade. You guys shouldn't be stuck on the HD resolution thing.

 

[Jokeropia]

Didn't Iwata just recently say that of course the next Nintendo console will support HD (since by then it'll be reasonably cheap and standard), but that there is no point in rushing out a half-hearted Wii HD solution before this generation has ended?

3. That's bullshit PS3+360 is larger than the Wii audience, plus they buy more software

Wii is on track to catch up before the end of the year and it's attach rate is about equal to the PS3's while both are slightly behind 360's.