WaffleTaco
Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
To be fair polls were also wrong about Trump in Iowa. I mean this is entirely different, but I believe I read somewhere where the voter was undecided in Michigan, by a good percentage.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
- Thread starter Makai
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Yes, see my previous post. The vast majority of people in America don't actually want capitalism to end, but the youth are obviously more comfortable with someone who is willing to call themselves something other than capitalist. If Bernie had called himself a social democrat instead of a democratic socialist he'd probably see even more support outside of the youth demographic because the "He's a socialist, he'll automatically lose the general!" idea wouldn't be quite as strong.
Most people couldn't even tell you what the defining features of capitalism are. They just think of it as "big business". So embracing capitalism is not positive PR.
Young, college-age Democratic voters almost surely have a higher view of feminism than the general electorate.
People have to make a living. At the end of the day, we need to provide for ourselves. When you have power structures over the last 30 years that exist only to make a tiny segment of the population wealthier, to the detriment of the rest, that trumps social justice for a lot of us liberals. Hillary's message on social issues is better, there's no denying that. But on the economy, Bernie trumps her.
eBay Huckster
Member
Not sure I'd throw it out completely, but I'd definitely expect a closer race.
Basileus777
Member
AP has called the final distribution of Michigan's 59 delegates.
Trump 25, Cruz 17, Kasich 17, Rubio 0.
Trump 25, Cruz 17, Kasich 17, Rubio 0.
Abinash117
Member
No, it could that people just got Michigan wrong. Every other poll was all that much wrong in other states at least in terms how is going to win.
This was something more than the undecided. This was an over 20 point swing with no major news in two days. This may be the biggest upset in primary election history, and that's no hyperbole.
EL OH EL
Basileus777
Member
Obviously it was the debate!
Macho Madness
Member
Outside of caucuses, the polls have been fairly decent. Something clearly happened with Michigan but it's not enough to just throw ALL polls in the garbage.
I don't think it's even necessarily that it "trumps" (can't even think of this word without thinking of Big Don now) social justice but that it's seen as a critical element of social justice for a lot of youth voters.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Yeah, something happened. If it really was Dem voters voting in the Republican Primary... I'd be simultaneously surprised and pissed
Edit: I have no idea why Trump is down on PredictIT, he hit his targets.
eBay Huckster
Member
Models for Michigan on the Dem side may well have been fundamentally fucked, in addition to every other factor named. This is a state whose Democratic Party hasn't held a primary that was actually contested in 24 years, after all.
Polls in Michigan since the beginning of the race:
Clinton +27
Clinton +37
Clinton +24
Clinton +13
Clinton +11
Clinton +17
Clinton +20
Clinton +34
Clinton +13
Clinton +33
Clinton +10
Clinton +29
Clinton +32
Clinton +27
Clinton +7
Clinton +19
Clinton +32
NOT A SINGLE POLL SHOWED SANDERS WINNING, and every poll except one (+7) had Clinton up by double digits.
This is fucking huge for the polling world. I want an autopsy done here dammit.
WaffleTaco
Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
I just looked at a few polls and it seems like the gap was a little less than 20 points...maybe closer to 16, with around 4 percent undecided...honestly I think the media basically stating that she would win convinced Hillary voters not to bother voting for her.
Basileus777
Member
Wow Cruz is cleaning up in Idaho. It won't matter much unless he cracks 50%, but that looks unlikely with Eastern Idaho mostly reported.
There may be something to that. The Cheebo effect, man. Cheebo you owe me money!!
Macho Madness
Member
Well, let's hope this is a wake up call for potential Hillary voters: This isn't over. Don't strategically vote.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Yes if for no other reason in that we depend on polls to an extent to double check that election results were not tampered with.
If that is the case, rather than modeling error or some massive shift after the debate, then that should be corrected for by Hillary voters on 3/15.
WaffleTaco
Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
I think it will be...I was considered either not voting for the Illinois primary or simply throwing it away for some random Dem on there (not Bernie). I am now for sure voting in it.
Macho Madness
Member
I told y'all
Basileus777
Member
Everyone knew Cruz was winning Idaho.
She needs to make it completely clear that regardless of what polls say people need to get their butts out there and vote. None of this voting in the republican primary to get ride of Trump. That BS very likely cost her the win if that percentage is indeed almost 10% or top of people not coming out because they thought it was covered. She needs to use this first thing tomorrow and keep using it.
benjipwns
Banned
Clinton won 57-41 among Democrats in that exit poll. That's close to the overall polling. Maybe they were screening out too many independents?
EDIT: Yep in one case.
Mitchell's poll had 90% Democrats in their sample, 9% independents.
Mitchell should know fucking better, we always get like 30% independent turnout. Never let him on the air again Skubick!
EDIT: Yep in one case.
Mitchell's poll had 90% Democrats in their sample, 9% independents.
Mitchell should know fucking better, we always get like 30% independent turnout. Never let him on the air again Skubick!
Macho Madness
Member
Tell that to Mr. Shook.
Macho Madness
Member
I think it says something that they split Genesee 50/50. That should have been a dominant county for Hillary.
Basileus777
Member
They're waiting until no one is awake to hear that Rubio won delegates.
To come. I closed out my shares and I'm going to bed. This election is just too unpredictable.
Trump losing Maine, Clinton losing Michigan, polls being way off.... I'm just gonna watch from the sidelines.
Predicted just sold off Rubio in Hawaii and bought Trump. I don't think that will end well but we'll see. I think a Cruz win or maybe even a Kasich one are more likely than Trump. Go on Hawaii, surprise me.
Macho Madness
Member
I bought some Cruz No. I think that's probably safe.
Basileus777
Member
It's a caucus state and I'd be surprised if Trump had any organization in Hawaii.
There are no thresholds in the state so Rubio's safe for once.
Trump had its first "rally" there this past Monday with 20 people. Meanwhile Cruz has been working the ground game for months and Rubio has been advertising a lot. I still don't see a Trump win but this is the year of surprises so we'll see.
benjipwns
Banned
That's fair. You make a good point and I think you're right.
eBay Huckster
Member
Macho Madness
Member
Nevermind eBay huckster got it. He overperformed his target by 2 delegates then.
Yeah, but every single poll was wrong.
If I had to guess: OH, PA could have similar errors and will probably go Sanders now. FL, IL, NC are probably legit. WI will be a massacre.
theprodigy
Member
That's with Sanders winning by a bigger margin then what he actually has though?
this has 520,217 to 447,531 votes
GOP Illuminati having a conference call on the 15th. I think that's the day that Trump can break their spirits if he sweeps Ohio, Florida, and Missouri.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Org fail, taking structural advantages for granted, moving on too soon...well that sounds familiar.
eBay Huckster
Member
Yeah, I'm not sure what's up with their vote counts.
In any event, 69 is his best case (heh!)
BoboBrazil
Member
Nah he aint winning. Same thing happened in Idaho.
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