-Software sales have stagnated for current gen systems.
-Mobile devices have shifted towards casual, smaller titles.
-Ramp up to the next gen has started in several major game companies.
-That leaves developers with the following choices: make a game for PS3/360 that has a somewhat more uncertain return, make a game for iOS/Android that's far cheaper and easier to develop for, make a next gen title, or make a title for Vita that has the budget of a PS3/360 game and an even more uncertain return.
Good points, but do many Vita games really have the budget of a PS3 or Xbox 360 game? Perhaps some downloadable games do, but this isn't a uniquely Vita thing. Game budgets in the download space vary relative to developer ambition--we've seen very grandiose iOS/Android projects, and likewise some shoestring efforts for PS3/Xbox 360. At the retail level, though, even the very best retail games for Vita seem to have development budgets comparable at most to midrange PS3/Xbox 360 products, and/or (especially in the case of direct conversions) have shared resources with the PS3/Xbox 360 versions.
The Vita exists in a place where there's no real incentive to develop for it. That *should* come from Sony, but they have their own budget woes and have the PS3 to maintain and the PS4 to develop for, so they can't give it their all like the PSP.
I honestly have no idea what the future will be like for the Vita, or even the 3DS. It's not pretty out there for the two handhelds.
I really, truly believe that PlayStation Mobile could be a key aspect of the overall PS Vita strategy. If you recall, Sony announced PlayStation Mobile (originally named "PlayStation Suite") at the same conference where they first announced the PS Vita system. Sony might have been reading the tea leaves longer than most people give them credit for.
If I were in Sony's shoes, I'd encourage developers of smaller-scale downloadable games to target
PS Mobile, rather than making Vita-specific versions of the games. By this time next year, any PS Vita game that
could be on PS Mobile
should be on PS Mobile. The only games that should be made specifically for Vita are retail games, and some larger and more ambitious games that truly push the Vita hardware. Everything else needs to be on PS Mobile.
Sony also needs to certify more devices as PS Mobile compliant (in order to attract developer support), and continue promoting PS Mobile as a flexible and secure development platform for mobile games. Vita will benefit from this by virtue of having these games available, and being seen as the best device for playing these games.
I don't see how attaching the Vita name to other devices is a road to success. I just can't see people flocking to buy a Vita phone or tablet. And PS Mobile seems like one of those things that was hyped up by various evangelists, only to release to absolutely no fanfare.
I don't think PS Mobile has gone into full swing yet, even though there are some games available. However, Sony needs to work quickly to get it into full swing, and also tie in other PSN features more closely (such as trophies).
Really, the issue with the PSP2 is that there was no dev support from the get-go. Outside of Ass Creed 3: Liberation, what publisher has tried full-force-100%-independent-games on the hardware? Everything is either ports (Little King's Story, LittleBigPlanet, NFS: Most Wanted [granted, this is "tailored to the hardware," but it's still downgraded/"port" argumentive], Persona 4, Disgaea 3...) or mobile games that no one but mobile gamers give a damn about (minis, PS Mobile Suite...).
Just to clarify, LittleBigPlanet PS Vita is
not a port of an earlier game. It's a completely new game developed specifically for the system.
I saw a TV ad for AC Liberation the other day.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GWt1Jw_JzI
No gameplay footage. A console experience in your hands.
This is how Sony wants to market the Vita.
Is that commercial actually running on American television? If not, then they need to put it on TV as soon as possible. While this commercial is not anywhere near Sony's best efforts, it's a great deal superior to what they've done for Vita to date.
If I were in Sony's shoes (again), then I'd request that my marketing team develop similarly styled ads for LittleBigPlanet, Call of Duty: Black Ops Declassified, and maybe even Uncharted: Golden Abyss (yes, I know it's an older game), and run them through the holiday season along with this one.