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Square Enix ships Tomb Raider 3.4M, Sleeping Dogs 1.75M, Hitman 3.6M

At the end of the day I would be willing to bet that TR(2013) will be the best selling TR game ever. Yet it didn't meet expectations.

I really doubt that the OG TR formula would be able to pull these numbers.
 

Pooya

Member
Thanks for the clarification.

If these are actually sales (shipment) estimates, and they are still under S-E's target number, than the company is crazy. 3.6M for Hitman would put it just under Hitman 2 for the highest sales in the franchise. 3.4M or Tomb Raider sounds pretty damn good, and is comparable or higher than anything else in the genre save Gears.

we know Sleeping Dogs shipped 1.51m unit until end of last quarter, Dec 2012. so for it now to be 1.75m, seems doable to me. that's why I think these are not targets.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=498669

this is what SE expected to ship this year, I think it's clear how these games underperformed, 7m unit in US, 7m in EU!. this includes everything and anything including catalog sales for the entire year but still you can tell they had much bigger expectations for these 3 games which was the only thing they had in NA/EU pretty much for the entire year, things like KH3D were lass than a million.

http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/news/pdf/13q2slides.pdf

capturetlfn1.png


they expected ~14.9m, likely ending up with less than 10m now.
 

Jhriad

Member
They have just really been dropping the ball when it comes to taking advantage of their IP.

That's putting it lightly. They have strong IP but Japan alone isn't going to pay the costs associated with AAA development. Especially when your development drags on for so long.

Both didn't "meet" their targets.

What happened wrong with SD and TR?

SD outperformed their initial estimates didn't it? These were updated estimates.
 

i-Lo

Member
Wow, it's sad when sales of 3m+ are considered weak, albeit with publishers having to pay retailers more money under the price protection regulation.

All the more reason for publishers to encourage Digital distribution where giving a discount of say $10 does not entail the publisher having to shell out that same amount to compensate the middleman.
 

kswiston

Member
At the end of the day I would be willing to bet that TR(2013) will be the best selling TR game ever. Yet it didn't meet expectations.

Nah. The original trilogy were huge sellers. 7 million, 8 million, and 6.5 million respectively. I doubt TR 2013 will top Tomb Raider 2. I could see it eventually being the highest selling Tomb Raider game in the past 10 years though.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Software sales are falling off the table pretty much universally. Publishers right now are in a hard spot, which is why we see so much cross-gen stuff. Wonder if Sony will do that with TLoU.
 

eot

Banned
The $60 retail market just seems broken. It's not where the growth is happening, studios and publishers that haven't gotten killed in the market are getting out of it an an accelerating pace and next gen costs will only go up. It just seems unsustainable. Even if say Tomb Raider sells enough to break even that's not a good result, companies want to make money, not just stay afloat. Next gen consoles better sell like fucking crazy or this will only get worse.
 
The $60 retail market just seems broken. It's not where the growth is happening, studios and publishers that haven't gotten killed in the market are getting out of it an an accelerating pace and next gen costs will only go up. It just seems unsustainable. Even if say Tomb Raider sells enough to break even that's not a good result, companies want to make money, not just stay afloat. Next gen consoles better sell like fucking crazy or this will only get worse.

I really hope this encourages devs to move away from the Hollywood presentation crap and just focus on game systems and stories people want to play.
 

Burt

Member
All of those had to of sold at least another 400,000-500,000 on PC. Hitman and Tomb Raider were both atop the Steam bestseller lists for a while, as preorders and after release. Sleeping Dogs got good word of mouth and has popped in and out of the charts since it was released.

I realize that SE has retail sales expectations, but if your game sells 4 million on all platforms combined in its first month and you can't call it a success...

tumblr_ln43vqaZdJ1qzab5p.png
 
I really hope this encourages devs to move away from the Hollywood presentation crap and just focus on game systems and stories people want to play.

One would hope, alas I'm afraid the response will be "marketing budget was not high enough, spend spend spend".

Will that result in more sales in the AAA space, though? I'm not convinced it will.

Publishers should realize that there's much more to gaming than the triple-A space.
 

Road

Member
Maybe the other slides cover this, but it looks like Square is trying to pin Eidos for their problems, when really whoever was making such ridiculously inflated sales targets is to blame. Also, the slide doesn't reflect how Square has utterly failed to consistetly release non-Eidos titles, which is their biggest failing.

Clearly all the Eidos games are selling just fine, but whatever little money they make is automatically flushed down the toilet made from FFXIV+Versus, making it impossible for their console segment to post a profit.

*puts tinfoil hat away*
 

Ninjimbo

Member
3.6 million for TR in three weeks? That's way too high for a dormant franchise coming out of a game with a lukewarm reception. Why would the expectations be that high?
 
One would hope, alas I'm afraid the response will be "marketing budget was not high enough, spend spend spend".

I think early on we'll see that, but with budgets getting higher and higher, things will just get more volatile. Eventually they'll have to tone it down, not because sales trends say so, but simply to survive.
 

Effect

Member
All of those had to of sold at least another 400,000-500,000 on PC. Hitman and Tomb Raider were both atop the Steam bestseller lists for a while, as preorders and after release. Sleeping Dogs got good word of mouth and has popped in and out of the charts since it was released.

I realize that SE has retail sales expectations, but if your game sells 4 million on all platforms combined in its first month and you can't call it a success...

tumblr_ln43vqaZdJ1qzab5p.png

Has it ever been said what it takes to top those charts?

I agree the $60 game market is broken. I also don't think new consoles are going to fix it either. In fact I see things just getting worse as some publishers will use that as an excuse to put out $70 games. I think EA has already talked about a possible price increase on their games. That on top of the DLC they are trying to sell people.
 

Lime

Member
If your game now costs half what it did, and you sell 3/4 what you would have with AAA, your doing better financially though.

Exactly. Are growth and more sales really that important to publishers that they continue to neglect this observation? Or are there any other less unreasonable motivations for them choosing to ramp up the budgets?
 

Feindflug

Member
Will that result in more sales in the AAA space, though? I'm not convinced it will.

If publishers lower the budgets and have realistic expectations sales-wise sure it can result in more successful projects and a more healthy industry.

As Lime already said you can have beautiful graphics without having to spent a fortune, thing is these days graphics in the AAA games are not a problem but the dumbed down mechanics and games trying to ape 2-3 successful franchises resulting in similar design in a lot of games of even different genres.
 

Burt

Member
Has it ever been said what it takes to top those charts?

Nah, but if you're implying that it doesn't take much, I agree. Probably only between 50,000 to 100,000 if it's not releasing up against anything big. Still, that gives both of them a few weeks at the low end of that scale as preorders then a week at the high end after it releases. Tomb Raider and Hitman both came in at number 1, I'm pretty sure. Tomb Raider is still on the charts 3 weeks later, albeit at number 10.

Steam is the biggest DD, but factor in Amazon, GMG, Origin, and the rest and I don't think an extra 400,000-500,000 digital copies is that much of a stretch.
 

ArjanN

Member
Ahah, ok so they're more worthless than i thought.

Interesting to see that for all 3 games the PS3 version is rated the highest on metacritic, despite the PC versions clearly being the best for all three.

Has it ever been said what it takes to top those charts?

No, and it's all relative. But leaving out digital sales makes these types of sales numbers hard to interpret.
 
I am so sorry for the dumb question but I am still confused. The pic in the OP is what their forecast for those games was right not actual sale numbers?
 
Exactly. Are growth and more sales really that important to publishers that they continue to neglect this observation? Or are there any other less unreasonable motivations for them choosing to ramp up the budgets?

i think a lot of it is having too many suits and ties at the top that are chasing the big bucks to please their shareholders instantly (this is in a lot of industries, not just gaming), instead of creating a stable buisness enviornment that, while wont land you GTA/Mario Kart/COD sales, will keep your industry healthy and viable.

Not saying that games that chase that arent needed.. you never know what the next hit will be, but you dont have to keep chasing it with almost every game you release.
 

IzzyF3

Member
Awwww... Man.... Does this mean more social games and fewer console experiences like Tomb Raider?

And here, my friends and I were praising Square Enix for doing such a great job for precisely these 3 games.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Why are we focusing on the month time frame? If these are shipments, the reality is that the vast majority of an AAA game's shipments are on day 1, forget month 1. With exceptions (of course), the first reporting period's shipments are like 85% of what a game will eventually ship.
 

Skilletor

Member
Maybe this will be a wake up call for SE and Eidos. Stop ruining old franchises for the sake of the casual crowd that doesn't exist anymore and keep your budgets in check. Deus Ex and Hitman fans don't need bleeding edge graphics to buy the game, Tomb Raider fans just want puzzles and actual Tombs.

Do I dare dream?
 

UrbanRats

Member
I disagree. The amount of cutscene-specific animation, voice acting, elaborately scripted setpieces, and so on could have been scrapped in order to trim down the budget. It could be argued to be cheaper to create a 3D level of puzzles with a lot of player agency (although it may be a bit rough around the edges) than it is to create 30 seconds of tightly orchestrated setpieces and explosions.
Given the prominence of the brand in SE's eyes, when they acquired Eidos, i doubt they would've let it become some really niche puzzle exploration product.
They could've cut down on some of the Uncharted-ness, but a certain level of polish, performance and motion capture (cinematics) would have gone into it no matter what.
I don't know how much the game cost them, but assuming they wanted to keep the brand's prevalence in the market (or you could say, restore it) i don't think they could've skimmed on the price that much.
Surely we're not talking about a 100$ millions production GTA style.

Needless to say i would've liked that a million times more, but it's not my money so whatever, i won't ask them to gamble with theirs.
 

Ninjimbo

Member
Why are we focusing on the month time frame? If these are shipments, the reality is that the vast majority of an AAA game's shipments are on day 1, forget month 1. With exceptions (of course), the first reporting period's shipments are like 85% of what a game will eventually ship.
This is correct. I was confusing shipped numbers with actual sales numbers.
 
Wow, 3 and a half million TR copies sold and you're still missing your targets? Get your goddamn targets in check Square Enix, no wonder you're doing so shitty.
 

massoluk

Banned
I don't even know what to say about an industry where you can't break even with more than a million products being sold
 

Aguirre

Member
Deus Ex 1 looked like shit when it came out and it didn't stop a ton of people from calling it the best game ever. Real PC gamers wouldn't care at all what it looked like if we were getting a true return to the original formula.

i'll bite >.>

could you elaborate on "shit"? because, i think , in comparison to the other games of the same year , it was quite pretty... o.o
 

Lime

Member
@Urbanrats: I think we agree on things, we're just approaching the topic of budget allocation from different angles.

Tomb Raider is a great game imo, would be pretty gutted if there isn't a next gen sequel

The IP is too big to leave and die. My prediction: Crystal Dynamics will be allowed to make one more attempt with this new Tomb Raider universe. Then the sequel will underperform unless any significant changes are made to the gameplay formula (aping Uncharted only gets you so far).

Then the series will either get rebooted again or SE will leave the series to rot.
 

Takuan

Member
It's criminal that Sleepydogs sold less than Tomb Raider and Hitman. Absolutely criminal.

Oh wait, figures don't include downloads. They were practically giving the best version away merely two months after release, so I imagine that's a large chunk missing from the actual numbers.
 
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