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(Sales Age) An introduction to theSimExchange.com (Now with a NeoGAF league-post 29)

GhaleonEB

Member
KultofCows said:
Java and Javascript are different technologies. The simExchange doesn't use Java at all, but Javascript is required.

Does that popup occur when you click the "Trade this" button or does it only come up when you double click the error loading icon at the bottom of the browser?

Are you able to use the pull-down menus on the left navigation bar?
I have to double click the error loading icon, nothing at all happens when I click the "Trade this" button. I can use the drop-down menus (Platform, Genre, Publisher).

My Internet technolgy experience ends with basic HTML, I'm afraid. I had no idea Java and Javascript were different, I thought one was short for the other. :lol

Where are the options for Javascript? I don't see them under IE Options, so I'm not sure where to look.
 
GhaleonEB said:
I have to double click the error loading icon, nothing at all happens when I click the "Trade this" button. I can use the drop-down menus (Platform, Genre, Publisher).

My Internet technolgy experience ends with basic HTML, I'm afraid. I had no idea Java and Javascript were different, I thought one was short for the other. :lol

Where are the options for Javascript? I don't see them under IE Options, so I'm not sure where to look.

Is there anything loading for you on the right side? There should be a gray box titled "Order Book." This is where you place your trades. If you are in basic trading mode, all you have to do is enter the number of shares you want and click either "Buy" or "Sell" depending on what you want to do. You can sell shares even if you don't own any (this is called short selling).

Clicking the Trade This buttons in the middle of the page loads that particular stock or futures contract into the Order Book. This is done seamlessly in the same window and no refresh of the page will be seen.

Let me know if you still have any problems.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
KultofCows said:
Is there anything loading for you on the right side? There should be a gray box titled "Order Book." This is where you place your trades. If you are in basic trading mode, all you have to do is enter the number of shares you want and click either "Buy" or "Sell" depending on what you want to do. You can sell shares even if you don't own any (this is called short selling).

Clicking the Trade This buttons in the middle of the page loads that particular stock or futures contract into the Order Book. This is done seamlessly in the same window and no refresh of the page will be seen.

Let me know if you still have any problems.
*faceplant*

Yup, works fine. Just bought some shares. I didn't know that's how it worked. Thanks!

......I need to go to bed now.
 
GhaleonEB said:
*faceplant*

Yup, works fine. Just bought some shares. I didn't know that's how it worked. Thanks!

......I need to go to bed now.

Glad we were able to get this all sorted out. The tutorial may also be helpful. We are also looking for suggestions from new users on how we can flatten the learning curve.
 

apujanata

Member
What actually happen when I shortsell or buy ?

Example 1 : If I shortsell 1000 shares of PS3 sales when the price is 100 DKP (since I believe that PS3 sales should be < 1 Million for NPD Nov 07), what happen when NPD show that PS3 Nov 07 sales are 500K (or 50DKP). How much money I will receive from that shortsell ? Is there a time limit to the # of days of shortsell shares I have ?

Example 2 : If I buy 1000 shares of Wii sales when the price is 50 DKP (since I believe that Wii sales should be > 500K for NPD Nov 07), what happen when NPD show that Wii Nov 07 sales are 1000K (or 100DKP) ? How much money I will receive from the shares I have ?
 
apujanata said:
What actually happen when I shortsell or buy ?

Example 1: Since you shorted 1000 shares at 100 DKP, you will be earning 100,000 DKP. When NPD figures arrive, the shares expire and you have to pay back your shorts. Since each share is worth 50 DKP now, you will only be paying back 50,000 DKP, earning you 50,000 DKP in the process.

Example 2: You will be paying 50,000 DKP to buy the shares. NPD figures arrive, shares expire and they get converted to cash. You will be receiving 100,000 DKP then, earning you 50,000 DKP.
 
kinda confused, but let me know if im on the right track

If it says "Game X will sell #," by buying shares Im agreeing and by selling Im saying it wont? Is it as simple as "true or false"?

Right now, for wii fit it says "Price forecasts 9.02M copies sold" whats the time frame on this and is it world wide? Some of these things seem pretty vague
 

apujanata

Member
rikitikitik said:
Example 1: Since you shorted 1000 shares at 100 DKP, you will be earning 100,000 DKP. When NPD figures arrive, the shares expire and you have to pay back your shorts. Since each share is worth 50 DKP now, you will only be paying back 50,000 DKP, earning you 50,000 DKP in the process.

Example 2: You will be paying 50,000 DKP to buy the shares. NPD figures arrive, shares expire and they get converted to cash. You will be receiving 100,000 DKP then, earning you 50,000 DKP.

Thanks for the answer. I am going to keep on shorting those PS3 stock. I have a friend request to you, so please add me if you don't mind.
 

apujanata

Member
I dislike the diversification rule, since I prevented me from short selling Wii and buying PSP in a big way. However, I can understand the reason.

Just for fun :
Current Sim Exchange prediciton vs. NeoGAF aggregate :

NeoGAF Aggregate said:
[NDS] 1,253,964; Expected Range = 750,000 to 1,800,000
[WII] 1,020,003; Expected Range = 750,000 to 1,350,000
[360] 747,459; Expected Range = 480,000 to 950,000
[PSP] 560,081; Expected Range = 252,000 to 880,000
[PS3] 414,293; Expected Range = 230,000 to 600,000

SimExchange current estimate said:
[NDS] 1,305,300
[WII] 1,110,000
[360] 734,100
[PSP] 470,700
[PS3] 409,300

The biggest difference (percentage wise) is PSP (around 18% difference).

League vs. League
NeoGAF currently have 35 person, while EvilAvatar is also 35 person. CAG have lots and lots of member : 90 persons.

Charron said:
And I'm second somewhere :lol
Aren't you first on CAG league ?
 
apujanata said:
Thanks for the answer. I am going to keep on shorting those PS3 stock. I have a friend request to you, so please add me if you don't mind.
No biggie, I added you already ;)

Suburban Cowboy said:
kinda confused, but let me know if im on the right track

If it says "Game X will sell #," by buying shares Im agreeing and by selling Im saying it wont? Is it as simple as "true or false"?

Right now, for wii fit it says "Price forecasts 9.02M copies sold" whats the time frame on this and is it world wide? Some of these things seem pretty vague
By buying shares, you're saying "No, Game X will sell more copies than #." By selling, you're saying "No, Game X will sell less copies than #." Something like that ;)

All the stocks, except the futures, are worldwide LTD numbers.

Hope those help.
 
rikitikitik said:
No biggie, I added you already ;)


By buying shares, you're saying "No, Game X will sell more copies than #." By selling, you're saying "No, Game X will sell less copies than #." Something like that ;)

All the stocks, except the futures, are worldwide LTD numbers.

Hope those help.
tyvm, helped a lot.
 

itxaka

Defeatist
Nice, just signed up and it looks cool.

So this is how the real trade market works? If it is, I finally understand it :)
 

apujanata

Member
itxaka said:
Nice, just signed up and it looks cool.

So this is how the real trade market works? If it is, I finally understand it :)

No. Real trade market has Technical analysis, chart, P/E, ROIC, growth rate etc etc. Real trade market is much more complicated than this.

In Real market, no one will be able to tell you whether you are right or wrong (like NPD can do for prediction market).

And don't forget, you are losing REAL money, as opposed to virtual (and worthless) DKP money. No offence to simexchange for the worthless part (since it can not be converted to real money like paypal or FFXI or Ragnarok Online money).

Kultofcows (brian shau ??),
What is the purpose of "time trust", other than encouraging people to keep on login everyday (or every 25 hours), and getting the market more lively ?
IMO, the time trust are dilluting the market value of DKP, since every month, everyone can get 28.8 x 25K DKP = 720K DKP, which is quite a big money.
If you still want to apply DKP, maybe you can still cap it at 25K, but lower the rate, from 250DKP per 15 minutes, to, say, 100DKP or 50DKP per 15 minutes. The new formula will made monthly "Time trust" DKP became 275K or 138K.

This will make DKP more precious, and made people less willing to "splurge" on them abitrarily.
 

itxaka

Defeatist
apujanata said:
No. Real trade market has Technical analysis, chart, P/E, ROIC, growth rate etc etc. Real trade market is much more complicated than this.

In Real market, no one will be able to tell you whether you are right or wrong (like NPD can do for prediction market).

And don't forget, you are losing REAL money, as opposed to virtual (and worthless) DKP money. No offence to simexchange for the worthless part (since it can not be converted to real money like paypal or FFXI or Ragnarok Online money).

yeah, just meaned the concept of selling things and buying when they are available and the X trades at X price thing. The basic guide i meaned.
 

Mushashi

Member
KultofCows said:
If you are buying a stock, you are betting the game will sell more than the current forecast. If you are short selling, you are betting the game will sell less than the current forecast.

For example, Mario Kart (Wii) is currently forecast to sell 13.65 million copies globally over the lifetime of the game. This corresponds to a stock price of 1,365.09 DKP. If you think the game will sell 14 million copies, you would be willing to buy the stock under 1,400 DKP. If you think the game will only sell 10 million copies, you would be willing to short sell the stock down to 1,000 DKP.

How do you find out how much a game actually sells worldwide LTD?, the futures get verified by NPD, but the lifetime figures just seem primarily based on popular sentiment.
 

Brakara

Member
Joined, because of the GAF league. But am I the only one finding most stocks overpriced? So I've spent most of my money on short selling. I mean, SSBB selling 15 million units? That must be the Nintendo fanboys driving that stock up. Or am I just being too conservative?
 

Mushashi

Member
Brakara said:
Joined, because of the GAF league. But am I the only one finding most stocks overpriced? So I've spent most of my money on short selling. I mean, SSBB selling 15 million units? That must be the Nintendo fanboys driving that stock up. Or am I just being too conservative?

Prices in general on there seemed to be overvalued but due to the shorting rules, you probably won't be able to short the heck out of all those stocks right away ;)

Based on the prices being forecast for November/December sales of Super Mario Galaxy a few weeks ago, the Nintendo fanboys were certainly in abundance on that one. ~2 million sales forecast for both November and December at the time :lol
 

apujanata

Member
Mushashi said:
Prices in general on there seemed to be overvalued but due to the shorting rules, you probably won't be able to short the heck out of all those stocks right away ;)

Based on the prices being forecast for November/December sales of Super Mario Galaxy a few weeks ago, the Nintendo fanboys were certainly in abundance on that one. ~2 million sales forecast for both November and December at the time :lol

How do you find out how much a game actually sells worldwide LTD?, the futures get verified by NPD, but the lifetime figures just seem primarily based on popular sentiment.

Well, after hearing the news of 500K first week of SMG, maybe those with weak math just multiple 500K with 4, and predict 2 Million ? :D Or maybe they are referring to Halo 3, which managed to sell 3 Million (and idiotically assume that SMG will also easily get 2 Million / month) ?

Overpredicting SMG does not automatically made you Nintendo fanboys. It might only mean you are a little bit too optimistic, or stupid, or combination of both (in addition to Nintendo fanboys possibility)

I have maxed 3 shortselling position, with each 20% of my net worth. For new member, for the first 3 days, they are only able to shortsell 10% of their net worth (or just 100K DKP worth of shortselling).

If there is no clear cut ending of worldwide LTD, I think I will stay away from LTD prediction.
 

DDayton

(more a nerd than a geek)
apujanata said:
If there is no clear cut ending of worldwide LTD, I think I will stay away from LTD prediction.

I got the impression that LTD could work more as a "slowly over time" prediction, with bids increasing as the actual sales increase, but I have no clue how "shorting" the LTD works in that case. LTD would appear to be entirely speculation, as opposed to Metacritic and such things.
 

Jesse2040

Member
Brakara said:
Joined, because of the GAF league. But am I the only one finding most stocks overpriced? So I've spent most of my money on short selling. I mean, SSBB selling 15 million units? That must be the Nintendo fanboys driving that stock up. Or am I just being too conservative?

I said the exact same thing!! But I guess you really have to assume that this will probably be the only SSB game for the Wii (unless they sneak one out in the later years). Given that, this will be the must have game for anyone who purchases a Wii an it is expected to exceed 100 million units worldwide so SSBB would only need a 15% penetration.

For reference, Halo 3 is projected to have a 14% penetration.

Makes sense when you think of it that way.
 
apujanata said:
No. Real trade market has Technical analysis, chart, P/E, ROIC, growth rate etc etc. Real trade market is much more complicated than this.

Technical analysis is applicable to all markets--after all, technical analysis is just analysis of the trading action. You will notice it is equally applicable on the simExchange. For example, you will notice there is strong buying support at 10,500 on Wii and 5,700 for Xbox 360. There is strong selling resistance for the Wii above 11,000 and for the Xbox 360 above 6,000. However, trading on the simExchange is much transparent than all the things that are going on in a currency market, and so fundamental factors like previews, video trailers, interviews, etc play a larger, more transparent role in the stock movement.

The concept of a P/E is actually the same on the simExchange. Many people on the simExchange look at Price-to-first-month-sales. The point of the P/E ratio is to determine if the price is disproportional to shorter-term information, such as last year's earnings or this year's expected earnings. P/FMS is a similar metric for comparing if the lifetime forecast of the stock is disproportional with the game's first month sales.

apujanata said:
In Real market, no one will be able to tell you whether you are right or wrong (like NPD can do for prediction market).

This is not exactly true. An earnings release will tell you if your expectations for the quarter were right or wrong. When trading options, if your long positions are out-of-the-money at expiration, you were wrong. On the simExchange, in terms of settlement, we have an element of both. We have lifetime stocks that are not settled against actual data because no actual data for global lifetime sales exists. We also have NPD Futures that settle against NPD's data each month.

apujanata said:
And don't forget, you are losing REAL money, as opposed to virtual (and worthless) DKP money. No offence to simexchange for the worthless part (since it can not be converted to real money like paypal or FFXI or Ragnarok Online money).

Yes money on the simExchange is entirely virtual and has no monetary value. It is not gambling in any form.

apujanata said:
Kultofcows (brian shau ??),
What is the purpose of "time trust", other than encouraging people to keep on login everyday (or every 25 hours), and getting the market more lively ?
IMO, the time trust are dilluting the market value of DKP, since every month, everyone can get 28.8 x 25K DKP = 720K DKP, which is quite a big money.
If you still want to apply DKP, maybe you can still cap it at 25K, but lower the rate, from 250DKP per 15 minutes, to, say, 100DKP or 50DKP per 15 minutes. The new formula will made monthly "Time trust" DKP became 275K or 138K.

This will make DKP more precious, and made people less willing to "splurge" on them abitrarily.

The main purpose of the time trust is to give people some money to spend when they log on each day. Since you can't really work and deposit additional funds into your trading account like you do in real-life, we have ways for you to get additional funds to keep trading (many people are fully invested). The Time Trust is a small way to gain DKP, but is mostly relevant for new players. It functions as a way for new players to lose DKP early on as they learn how to trade and get back in the game relatively easily. The Time Trust was originally 5,000 DKP per day, but was expanded to be much larger. You will notice that 25k DKP actually isn't a big deal when you get further along.

You can also submit articles, images, and videos for DKP. You get DKP for each bid your submissions or comments get. You also get DKP when other people bid on submissions and comments the same way you do. For more info on bidding, check out the tutorial.
 

apujanata

Member
KultofCows said:
Stuff about Technical analysis, P/E & P/FMS (legs, anyone ?), type of settlement. And simExchange is not gambling.

The main purpose of the time trust is to give people some money to spend when they log on each day. Since you can't really work and deposit additional funds into your trading account like you do in real-life, we have ways for you to get additional funds to keep trading (many people are fully invested). The Time Trust is a small way to gain DKP, but is mostly relevant for new players. It functions as a way for new players to lose DKP early on as they learn how to trade and get back in the game relatively easily. The Time Trust was originally 5,000 DKP per day, but was expanded to be much larger. You will notice that 25k DKP actually isn't a big deal when you get further along.

You can also submit articles, images, and videos for DKP. You get DKP for each bid your submissions or comments get. You also get DKP when other people bid on submissions and comments the same way you do. For more info on bidding, check out the tutorial.


Thanks a lot for the post, especially the bit about original Time Trust value and the reason of increasing it to 25K.

Question : if the new member always have a bigger user id # ? Just curious, since those that are ranked 1-50 usually have small # (from 1 - 2xxx).

A little bit suggestion : The server is a tiny, teeny weeny itsy bit slow. Especially the law few days. If you get more member joined, maybe you need to plan to upgrade the server.
 
apujanata said:
Thanks a lot for the post, especially the bit about original Time Trust value and the reason of increasing it to 25K.

Question : if the new member always have a bigger user id # ? Just curious, since those that are ranked 1-50 usually have small # (from 1 - 2xxx).

A little bit suggestion : The server is a tiny, teeny weeny itsy bit slow. Especially the law few days. If you get more member joined, maybe you need to plan to upgrade the server.

Thanks for the feedback.

User ID knows are assigned as people join. If you are user #7,000, you are the 7,000th user on the simExchange.

We continue to scale our hardware as we grow. If any pages in particular seem slow, please report this and we will see if there is something we can optimize on the software side. Additionally, many pages with user submitted content will hold up if the user submitted content is no longer available. This is a problem we are working on.

Thanks.
 

DDayton

(more a nerd than a geek)
Bah.

The only stuff I feel like I have a -really- good knowledge of is the Nintendo stuff, and it seems like most things are horribly overpriced... too expensive to be all that sure of a profit, yet not so outlandish that I can expect them to crash.

It's painful.
 

apujanata

Member
DavidDayton said:
Bah.

The only stuff I feel like I have a -really- good knowledge of is the Nintendo stuff, and it seems like most things are horribly overpriced... too expensive to be all that sure of a profit, yet not so outlandish that I can expect them to crash.

It's painful.

Well, you need to go to that site daily, to make use of the Time Trust DKP.
You also need to expand your horizon, so you know more about PS3, PSP & X360 S/W.
Read more of Altered Beast retailer feedback, and try to gather more feel about the market.
And sometimes, you might find good investment, and don't be afraid to shortsell or buy them crazy. You might lose if you predict wrong, but if you win, you win big.

Example : I win big with my Rock Band 360 Nov 07 investment. Buy them all when it is 14.36 (143K sales), and get them cashed out at 31.20 (312K sales), which netted me 295K DKP profit (117% profit).

I also lost quite significantly on Mass Effect, but as the saying goes " no pain, no gain".
 
Lol, so the current prediction for December NPD sales of the DS are greater than 2.5 million? Crazy.

Do the futures contracts automatically get closed when NPD numbers are posted?
 
Battersea Power Station said:
Lol, so the current prediction for December NPD sales of the DS are greater than 2.5 million? Crazy.

Do the futures contracts automatically get closed when NPD numbers are posted?

PS2 sold ~2.7M in December 2002 and NEVER had 1.5M sales like the DS had this November.
 
Battersea Power Station said:
While not as dire as the Wii situation, isn't the DS also pretty tight on supplies, however? What percentage sell-through was that 1.5M?

DS is in very good supply. Not every model is available but the supply is plentiful.

From what I've seen Supply goes from horrible to no issue like this:

1) Wii (Sell a kidney)
2) PSP (You must buy the Star Wars model)
3) 360 (Elites impossible, Pro's very, very low supply, arcades plentiful, Halo's everywhere)
4) DS (Various colors/models low supply)
5) PS2, PS3 (Everywhere)
 

apujanata

Member
Battersea Power Station said:
Lol, so the current prediction for December NPD sales of the DS are greater than 2.5 million? Crazy.

Do the futures contracts automatically get closed when NPD numbers are posted?

Yes, futures contracts that have month in it (not LTD) will automatically "get closed" or expired when NPD numbers are posted. You can see my post asking this question earlier in this thread, and rikitikitik's answer to them.

As sonycowboy mentioned, 2.5 Million + for NDS in Dec is not impossible. I put the actual figure between 2.0 Million (minimum) up to 2.7 Million (maximum). Current price of 2.6 Million is in the high range, but not in the "impossibly high" range (which will trigger shortsell), or in the "impossibly low" range (which will trigger buy).

1) Wii (Sell a kidney)
I think it is more like "cost you an arm and a leg" or "cost you $600 or more on E-bay, which will make Sony fanboy cried, since PS3 couldn't sell as well at $600"
 

apujanata

Member
sonycowboy said:
PS2 sold ~2.7M in December 2002 and NEVER had 1.5M sales like the DS had this November.

For those who are curious, PS2 on Nov 2002 sold around 1.3 Million, which is why almost nobody predict DS to do 1.5 Million in Nov 2007 (since most people believe 1.3 Million is the upper limit, even for DS).
 
FYI,

For those who are active at simExchange, I just thought this might be a good place to discuss trades, opportunities, and strategies.

I've been looking at the total sales for December and January and they look way too high to me. I'm also quite interested in what the hell apujunta has done to have increased by 50% over 2 or 3 days. I've done almost NO community features which can give you money, only bothering to do trades.



Regarding December Total Sales said:
The Total Software Sales NPD December 2007 looks potentially to be significantly inflated to me.

@ $2.5B in sales, it's assuming a 60% jump over last year. This despite a few factors.

1) December has lost the week after Christmas to November (which helps to account for the 62% jump in November). In it's place, it gets Dec 30th - Jan 5, a much, much weaker week. If you normalize the data, this number essentially would be predicting a 75% increase in sales

2) Last years $1.73B was an industry record (which almost every year gives us), and while COD4, SM Galaxy, Assassins' Creed, Guitar Hero, & Wii Play are going to dazzle, we lose 800k of Gears of War, 1.5M units of Zelda, 875k of Cars, and the traditional franchises looking to have lost substantial steam. (Madden, NFS, Tony Hawk, & Smackdown).

A 30% or less increse in the face of the change in the retail calendar looks much safer to me, which would translate to $2.1B in sales.

I'm very, very bullish on SW sales with the 360, Wii, & DS doing so well, but the number just looks way too big to me.


Regarding January Total Sales said:
I absolutely agree with this. This number out there is obscene. $600M in sales, or a 10% increase when:

1) There's 1 less week in sales (which is essentially a 20% drop in sales, or $450M normalized).

2) January loses it's best week to December (the first week of the month - Dec 30 - Jan 5, because of the retail calendar shift), which is replaced by Jan 27 - Feb 2, a MUCH, MUCH weaker week.
 

Brakara

Member
Not surprised if software stocks are overpriced, as I've yet to have a long position in one of those. There should be plenty of software stocks to short, but the problem is (of course) to identify the right ones.
 
sonycowboy said:
I'm also quite interested in what the hell apujunta has done to have increased by 50% over 2 or 3 days.
From a few things he's posted I think he came out on the right side of some of the huge single-day increases like Mario Party DS.


I think January hardware is currently quite overpriced. But what a pain to short it much and have to wait a month and a half for the results, as not enough people must agree with me that they're overpriced for them to change. If anything, they've gotten worse recently. Current January hardware works out to

Wii: 613K
DS: 520K
X360: 383K
PSP: 270K
PS3: 253K

That's far above last year's five-week January. Wii is said to do much better than it has in any non-November/December month. X360 is said to do better than PS2 did most Januaries. PS3 is doing more than Xbox or GameCube ever did in January.


I've also been putting money into Wii Play long stock. It's currently valued at 13-14 million, but unless Nintendo releases a replacement controller pack-in game, the sky is the limit on that one. Not something that will get quick gains, but it seems a safe bet.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
From a few things he's posted I think he came out on the right side of some of the huge single-day increases like Mario Party DS.


I think January hardware is currently quite overpriced. But what a pain to short it much and have to wait a month and a half for the results, as not enough people must agree with me that they're overpriced for them to change. If anything, they've gotten worse recently. Current January hardware works out to

Wii: 613K
DS: 520K
X360: 383K
PSP: 270K
PS3: 253K

That's far above last year's five-week January. Wii is said to do much better than it has in any non-November/December month. X360 is said to do better than PS2 did most Januaries. PS3 is doing more than Xbox or GameCube ever did in January.


I've also been putting money into Wii Play long stock. It's currently valued at 13-14 million, but unless Nintendo releases a replacement controller pack-in game, the sky is the limit on that one. Not something that will get quick gains, but it seems a safe bet.
I think a lot of people are looking to this past January and doing their trending from there, forgetting it was five weeks. I expect a higher weekly average, but the market is too high here. Now if you'll excuse me I've gotta go short some stuff....

And back. There's a big correction going on right now. I think this post might have sent some folks (hi!) scurrying.
 

apujanata

Member
sonycowboy said:
FYI,

For those who are active at simExchange, I just thought this might be a good place to discuss trades, opportunities, and strategies.

I've been looking at the total sales for December and January and they look way too high to me. I'm also quite interested in what the hell apujunta has done to have increased by 50% over 2 or 3 days. I've done almost NO community features which can give you money, only bothering to do trades.

Sonycowboy, how could you do this to me ? You ask me a question, and yet you spelled my id wrong ? Tsk, tsk, tsk. Bad, really bad.

Joking aside, the reason for my huge win for the last two days (that allow me to leapfrog both you and heidir) :
- Mario Party DS, LTD : Bought them at 224 DKP, see them gained a huge boost due the news of MPDS doing 300K a week in M-create (posted by me), with LTD of 1 Million in less than 2 months, and then see that stock soar 50% in less than 1 hours. As Tom Nook would say, crazzzzzy. Total profit : 160K DKP (32% of buy price). This happen on Dec 26, so I consider it as late christmas present from SimExchange to me.
- Nights (Wii), Dec 07 : Shorted them at 17.02 DKP, waited for eternity (it seems like that to me) for them to drop down, but never did. Suddenly, one day after Mario Party boost, people come to their sense, and drop it down to 7.2 DKP (50% drop or more??, could not remember the # before the sudden drop). I exit (buy those stock I shorted) at 10.41 DKP.
Total Profit : 185K DKP (63% of buy price). I also consider this as my second christmas present from SimExchange.

Funny note about Nights, Dec 07 : Since the price now is very low (less than 8 DKP), and I believe than Nights might do 10 DKP or more, my current position on them is buy, not short.

About community feature, as of now (the time I post this), I got 136K DKP from content bidding, and I got 135K DKP from achieving Level 3 Community, so if you wanted to do an apple to apple comparison between you and me, you can subtract 271K from my worth, which bring it down to around 2.3 Million.

JoshuaJSlone said:
From a few things he's posted I think he came out on the right side of some of the huge single-day increases like Mario Party DS.


I think January hardware is currently quite overpriced. But what a pain to short it much and have to wait a month and a half for the results, as not enough people must agree with me that they're overpriced for them to change. If anything, they've gotten worse recently. Current January hardware works out to

I've also been putting money into Wii Play long stock. It's currently valued at 13-14 million, but unless Nintendo releases a replacement controller pack-in game, the sky is the limit on that one. Not something that will get quick gains, but it seems a safe bet.

I also have short position on those January stock, especially Wii & Uncharted. I am not too sure about Uncharted, but I am sure about Wii being overpriced. I also have the some problem as you, JoshuaJSlone, in which I got hammered by other people expectation. However, since I only short sell in 2 stock, and I bought them when the price is pretty high (73.21 for Wii and 16.96 for Uncharted), I am not severely affected by them (and it helped that I have some long position that keep on increasing day to day and help me counte the losses in my short position).

About Wii play, it is too long (may need 3 or 6 more months before people agree to increase them from it current level). I decide that I better use that money somewhere else (as spare cash, so if I noticed stocks that suddenly became interesting, I have the money to do something about it). You know, the "time value of money" theory apply in this case.

If any of you still have question, don't hesitate to post it, I will try to answer it as best as I can.
 

DDayton

(more a nerd than a geek)
Bah.

I have too much stuff tied up in short stocks...

If I have short stock "futures" (assuming I understand this), do I have to -wait- until the listed time, or can I rebuy stock early to "defray" the futures?
 
DavidDayton said:
Bah.

I have too much stuff tied up in short stocks...

If I have short stock "futures" (assuming I understand this), do I have to -wait- until the listed time, or can I rebuy stock early to "defray" the futures?

You can "buy" your shorts back at any time and if it's devalued since then, you pocket the difference. So, you don't have to wait for NPD time, just for folks to come to their senses, which might never happen.
 
An update on the overpriced January numbers we were talking about. Sonycowboy had this to say in the Wii comments section:

Did some retail checks and Gamestop corporate has already recieved (and mostly sold) the Wii rainchecks and then some. All should be booked to December.

So, for those who were expecting a good 150-200k Wii's to hit in January, you might want to rethink...

This makes me more sure than ever that the current 600+K value is overpriced. However, I wonder if it would be more profitable to short later, after people have gone crazy. The crowd at simExchange seems it can be a bit reactionary, like when DS's big numbers quickly shot the December prediction to something around 3.5 million. If Wii's December is quite good, the January number might shoot up, too.
 

apujanata

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
An update on the overpriced January numbers we were talking about. Sonycowboy had this to say in the Wii comments section:



This makes me more sure than ever that the current 600+K value is overpriced. However, I wonder if it would be more profitable to short later, after people have gone crazy. The crowd at simExchange seems it can be a bit reactionary, like when DS's big numbers quickly shot the December prediction to something around 3.5 million. If Wii's December is quite good, the January number might shoot up, too.

You can maximise your profit by using two phase shortselling.

First one : You short now. Before NPD Dec release, you buy back those shares (to make you position neutral). If you get profit, fine. If you don't, you lose. You are basically gambling in this phase, in order to maximise your potential profit.

Second one : You short AFTER NPD Dec release. When the price is going through the roof, and you think it has already reached the max. You will get lots and lots of profit. Maybe even 63% profit.

However, you should note that sonycowboy and me has made cautionary post regarding January sales. If a lot of SE member heed our post, the "going through the roof part" might never happen. Sorry about this, since I go there first, before going here.
 
apujanata said:
However, you should note that sonycowboy and me has made cautionary post regarding January sales. If a lot of SE member heed our post, the "going through the roof part" might never happen. Sorry about this, since I go there first, before going here.
Ha, no worries, doing well through withholding information seems a bit slimy and goes against the whole point of the thing.
 

apujanata

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
Ha, no worries, doing well through withholding information seems a bit slimy and goes against the whole point of the thing.

Some people might consider that "not telling people that they are doing crazy things" is not the same as "doing things (like lying) to make people do crazy things". The former is a passive things, and not really considered slimy (only considered not doing what a good neighbour should do), while the later is considered slimy / evil / bad.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
I've also been putting money into Wii Play long stock. It's currently valued at 13-14 million, but unless Nintendo releases a replacement controller pack-in game, the sky is the limit on that one. Not something that will get quick gains, but it seems a safe bet.
I hope some of you followed my lead here. I logged in tonight to find I'd gained a quarter of a million DKP. Reason? A combination of a big spender buying big into it and making a decent post about why has shot the value up about 50% today. Let's see if it stays, though.
 

apujanata

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
I hope some of you followed my lead here. I logged in tonight to find I'd gained a quarter of a million DKP. Reason? A combination of a big spender buying big into it and making a decent post about why has shot the value up about 50% today. Let's see if it stays, though.

Usually, when the increase is very high, there might be someone who drive down (short) the price the next day. Unless the reason for the increase is very, very strong, in which case the shorting will never happen.

Unfortunately, I didn't buy the Wii Play stock. I was focusing on Wii Fit, and I have run out of money to buy more stocks. Congratulation on your big win :D with a quarter million profit, your networth will increase from 2.08 to 2.33, increasing your rank in NeoGAF from 18 to 12, leaping Heidir and Sonycowboy (that is assuming they don't increase their networth significantly like you).

My profit today is very small, and it is cause by time trust, not trading.
 

Uncle

Member
I've shorted a lot of Mass Effects december NPD. Wouldn't mind losing the DKP though, since it's such a great game it deserves the sales. :p
 
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