Support NeoGAF

Randy Lanzarote · Feb 16, 2008

Psychotext said:
Not bad (6th)... but my order was screwed this month. :lol

Didn't you plan your predictions thinking it was a 5 week month as well? :s Damn..... :lol

No. 12 for me, not a bad way to start the NPD year.

Cheesemeister · Feb 16, 2008

Kolgar said:
What? Was I late? Is the cut-off at 5 p.m. or something?

Damn, I would have been #7 or #8 too.

You were late by 3.5 hours. The cutoff was at 4 pm per the OP.

Ike · Feb 16, 2008

Ike said:
[360] 300k
[NDS] 500k
[PS2] 180 k
[PS3] 150 k
[PSP] 320 k
[WII] 400k

Um....way off?

donny2112 · Feb 16, 2008

Point System Results - January 2008

1. sonycowboy - 123.28
2. kbear - 117.18
3. botticus - 112.99
4. Minsc - 110.56
5. Timedog - 107.79
6. Psychotext - 105
7. Jackano - 103.16
8. felipeko - 101.51
9. womfalcs3 - 100.08
10. _Alkaline_ - 98.78
11. cyclonekruse - 97.76
12. sionyboy - 97.12
13. JJConrad - 96.84
14. llonesmiz - 96.35
15. AniHawk - 96.06
16. Concept17 - 95.55
17. TwinsDad - 95.49
18. rhfb - 95.31
19. toxk_02 - 95.2
20. turtle553 - 94.42
21. ICallItFutile - 94.36
22. AirBrian - 94.08
23. starship - 93.92
24. Belgorim - 93.64
25. DayShallCome - 93.5
26. Jiggy37 - 93.34
27. SuperBanjo - 93.03
28. nextgeneration - 92.94
29. Restricted_Area - 92.88
30. Clever Pun - 92.53
31. Brakara - 92.04
32. Copycat_Wannabe - 91.84
33. _leech_ - 91.3
34. deftangel - 91.27
35. squatingyeti - 91
36. apujanata - 90.78
37. JoshuaJSlone - 90.74
38. jamesinclair - 90.54
39. rikitikitik - 90.45
40. Strike - 90.44
41. toonface - 90.08
42. BuzzJive - 89.9
43. Sviatoslav - 89.89
44. John Dunbar - 89.71
45. Bending_Unit_22 - 89.61
46. Ydahs - 89.16
47. devilscallmedad - 89.06
48. seattle6418 - 88.73
49. archnemesis - 88.64
50. Odysseus - 88.44

Congratulations, sonycowboy! Starting the year off on a good foot.

No one got the ordering correct this month (PSP = 360 for #5).

Analyst Comparison - January 2008

1. GAF_spec - 78.22
2. GAF_Agg - 74.63
3. Pachter - 71.47
4. simExchange - 61.93

GAF_spec is the top 20 finishers for 2007.

Cheesemeister · Feb 16, 2008

Ike said:
Um....way off?

The calculation was correct. You were indeed way off.

[WII] |274k - 400k| = 126k
[PS3] |269k - 150k| = 119k
[PS2] |264k - 180k| = 084k
[NDS] |251k - 500k| = 249k
[PSP] |230k - 320k| = 090k
[360] |230k - 300k| = 070k

Total: 738k

Cheesemeister said:
151. Ike - 738,000

Chumly · Feb 16, 2008

Cant you guys just include the three of us that were late? Its not like it made any difference for our predictions. We were barely late by a couple of hours and nobody posted after me for a couple of days.

DSWii60 · Feb 17, 2008

Cheesemeister said:
Disqualified for late or outlying predictions: Arthas, Chumly, Digital-Hero, DSWii60, Forgotten Ancient, Kolgar, Vieo.

I don't understand why I was disqualified.

Cheesemeister · Feb 17, 2008

DSWii60 said:
I don't understand why I was disqualified.

You made your predictions 3 days late.

DSWii60 · Feb 17, 2008

Cheesemeister said:
You made your predictions 3 days late.

Oh. Damn, thats 4 months in a row I've missed making predictions.

Lobster · Feb 17, 2008

DSWii60 said:
Oh. Damn, thats 4 months in a row I've missed making predictions.

Its only January and a lot of people fucked up, you should be able to get back in the game.

Psychotext · Feb 17, 2008

sionyboy said:
Didn't you plan your predictions thinking it was a 5 week month as well? :s Damn..... :lol

Yup... sometimes you get lucky even though your brain and excel hate you. :lol

sonycowboy · Feb 17, 2008

It's nice to be King.

PS3 turned out to be my biggest differential. DS is what killed most folks, that and folks who were predicting a sub 170k PS3. The PS3 almost beat the highest prediction we had for it. And some folks were calling it "not that great" or "that's all it could do" :lol

sonycowboy said:
[360] 240,000 (230,000) 10k
[NDS] 280,000 (251,000) 29k
[PS2] 229,000 (264,000) 35k
[PS3] 210,000 (269,000) 59k
[PSP] 220,000 (230,000) 10k
[WII] 310,000 (274,000) 36k

Point System Results - January 2008

1. sonycowboy - 123.28
2. kbear - 117.18
3. botticus - 112.99
4. Minsc - 110.56
5. Timedog - 107.79
6. Psychotext - 105

1. sonycowboy - 179,000
2. kbear - 198,000
3. botticus - 230,000
4. Minsc - 234,000
5. Timedog - 246,000

Psychotext · Feb 17, 2008

sonycowboy said:
DS is what killed most folks

Yup, it's what got me most. I massively overestimated it.

andy_lhc · Feb 17, 2008

Psychotext said:
Yup, it's what got me most. I massively overestimated it.

For me it was both
DS - Overestimated
PS3 - Underestimated

A Human Becoming · Feb 17, 2008

Top 20? Holy shit.

botticus · Feb 17, 2008

I've missed the top 5. Good to be back!

3. botticus - 230,000

Jokeropia · Feb 17, 2008

Replicant said:
:lol Well, yes. Some of us actually have lives and don't monitor the amount of hardware available on the nearest game shop. So I'm sorry for having difficulty in believing that those consoles are actually having shortages.

???

First of all, you pretty much have to be completely disinterested in the videogame market (and preferably stay away from gaming related internet message boards) to not be aware of this fact, and secondly since you fully admit to being this oblivious, why do you still refuse to believe the words of the more knowledgeable?

starship · Feb 17, 2008

#23 is not bad.

And these are the GAF_spec members:

GhaleonEB
JoshuaJSlone
argon
Clever Pun
BuzzJive
donny2112
duderon
rage1973
Heidir
Orgen
Kurosaki Ichigo
sonycowboy
Jokeropia
DayShallCome
TheKurgan
starship
Frankfurter
AniHawk
beermonkey@tehbias
apujanata

Concept17 · Feb 17, 2008

wow I managed 16th on my first attempt... yay me

Strike · Feb 17, 2008

37. Strike - 378,000

Meh. A lot better than last month....

Quazar · Feb 17, 2008

Where can I get last year numbers month to month? Looks like you only post previous month numbers. I'd like to look at those and previous month for future predictions.

_Alkaline_ · Feb 17, 2008

My first top 10!

Nice way to start the year.

apujanata · Feb 17, 2008

donny2112 said:
Point System Results - January 2008

snipped text of Top 50
Congratulations, sonycowboy! Starting the year off on a good foot.

No one got the ordering correct this month (PSP = 360 for #5).

Analyst Comparison - January 2008

1. GAF_spec - 78.22
2. GAF_Agg - 74.63
3. Pachter - 71.47
4. simExchange - 61.93

GAF_spec is the top 20 finishers for 2007.

Since the participant is 152, those Top 30 that are not in your Top 50 point system results will have their Weight Value subtracted by 1, while those that are in Top 50 will have their Weight Value added by 1.

Donny2112, why Top 20 instead of Top 30 ? Any reason ? I suggested Top 30.

Hammer24 · Feb 18, 2008

#130 - wow, what a way to start the year!

apujanata · Feb 18, 2008

Hammer24 said:
#130 - wow, what a way to start the year!

Look at the bright side. You have nowhere go but up for the remaining of year 2008.

donny2112 · Feb 18, 2008

apujanata said:
why Top 20 instead of Top 30 ?

~200 per month usually predicted for last year => ~10%. That's the percentage I used for the first GAF_spec group (most of whom are in it again this year).

Slavik81 · Feb 18, 2008

-_-;

Between Wii and DS shortfalls and ridiculously high PS3 sales, I was utterly demolished this month.

Support NeoGAF

Official January NPD Prediction Thread - closes Friday Feb 8

Member

Member

PissBOX, PeeS2, or Toiletcube

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Banned

Member

Member

Member

Member

More than a Member

Member

Member

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Banned

Member

Member

Member

Similar threads