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GUYS! TIME WARP! PARTY LIKE IT'S 1997!
- Thread starter pswii60
- Start date
WickedAngel
Banned
Mrbob said:
No.
Standalone Blu-Ray players are going to drop in price far faster than Sony could ever dream of doing with the Playstation 3.
That feature isn't going to have mass-market appeal once that happens. The AV enthusiasts will scoff at the cheaper, lower-quality standalone players but the general populace will certainly pick them over a $599 console.
Mrbob said:
Bullshit. Reggie would have creamed his shorts had the Wii just kept pace with the 360/PS3. Hell, I'm the biggest damn Nintendo ****ing retard this side of the mississippi, and I didnt see this coming.Haunted_One said:
'I saw it coming.'
Fact is, everyone, and I mean even Reggie, Nintendorkopolis's biggest lord, and ruler, expected the PS3 to sell a HELL of alot better then it is.
Trying to say it would falter our of the gates now is horse-pucky.
V
Vilix
Unconfirmed Member
Dragona Akehi said:
It's funny because this time last year know one believed this. One can simply look at history and see what goes up will come down and vice-versa. Look at the auto industry. Look at the energy industry. Or, more closer to home, look at the tech industry. IBM was THE hardware manufacturer for decades until the PC market exploded in the early 80s. Apple helped that market, but lost it to PC manufactures using Windows. Now, Apple is trying to make a comeback with help from the phenomenal success of the iPod.
Nothing ever stays the same. Especially when there's money to be made.
HocusPocus
Member
Forgotten Ancient said:
I'm sure for young kids and college students it will be, but come on the acceptance of a new format for the mainstream isn't going to be on a game player.
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
AniHawk said:
Aside from the PSone, has Sony ever reduced the price in North America within the first year? I don't know why the hell they haven't lowered the price for the PSP after 2 years.
WickedAngel
Banned
Mrbob said:
It looks like you aren't going to argue anything that places logical eyes on the status and progression of the Playstation 3, so you might as well bow out now.
Blu-Ray players aren't going to stay static forever. As mentioned earlier, the prices will drop far faster on standalone players than the Playstation 3.
ethelred said:
Except that what you are talking about is theory and I am talking reality.
First, the reality is the Wii is selling strongly now. Who is to say if this trend will continue at the same rate? I'm betting my money on no.
Second, the reality is despite the Wii selling strongly now, so is the 360 in most territories and it IS still the current market leader. The Wii has to actually catch it for it to have this user base advantage.
Then.....the Wii has to surpass the user base of the 360 + PS3(you can throw PC in there too).......for it to become the place of the largest user base of the largest possible profits that can support ALL third party games.
Finally I am still WAITING for these announcements to even take place. Just the ANNOUNCEMENTS. Let alone the years it will take for these games to be developed. In reality, again the big word, over the next year and further out.....the biggest third party games are coming out on the 360/PS3/PC which will in turn continue to increase THAT user base....and they are constantly being announced for those systems.
And why shouldn't it be this way. Explain to me why SHOULD developers shift their resources to the Wii, if the reason for them picking a certain platform is user base, when right NOW the 360 + PS3 has the largest user base, and there is NO guarantee that the Wii will ever catch, or surpass this in the future?
Look at the release list over the next year and half. Take out the biggest third party games and you will find out they all have one thing in common....they are NOT on the Wii.
PS: No, I am the guy that believes the 360 will outsell Xbox's LTD by the end of the year in Japan, and has a good chance of hitting 1 million, not 3, LTD. You don't have to post false formation to try to discredit me. I'm sure there's plenty of real things I said I was wrong about that you can use instead.
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
HocusPocus said:
Maybe not, but I don't think you can completely disregard the PS3's ability to play Blu-Ray. Literally thousands of DVDs were purchased between msyelf, family, and friends that use the or used the PS2 as their DVD player. High School/College Students (and non-students in the same age bracket) make up a large portion of the electronics buying population.
WickedAngel
Banned
Link316 said:
DVD's weren't a new format when the Playstation 2 was released :lol
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
jimbo said:
Yeah, you have a point.
Diatribe1974
Member
Jimbo, I can definately understand most of you points, but that's where I have to draw the line at the "Most" part. The one area I have to disagree with you on, is the games area. If you check, you'll see that an incredible amount of developers are jumping onto the Wii bandwagon that weren't either there before, or as heavilly. A number of dev's have openly stated that they "Underestimed the Wii and now pledge support for original content" yada yada yada. You know the spiel. Anyways....
All in all, expect the Wii to have not only a huge amount of *original* content, but "versions" of multi-console games catered to the strengths of the Wii. Sure, not as pretty to look at, but solid in their own & just as fun to play.
As for the price comment, I agree, yet disagree with you (so I amend my previous comment). It all boils down to *when & if* they (MS & Sony) drop their price & also *How much*. Sony can't even begin to touch Nintendo's price point. Doing so right now is suicide. Microsoft can, but they want to make money this generation, so price cuts are not going to be as often, nor as much. So for the next year (end up 2007 at least), Nintendo is safe. By then, production costs should be nice and low, easilly capable of sustaining a new 199$ price point, does the situation demand it. If the hype/word of mouth for the Wii continues till then, you have Sony has had the last 2 generations: A self sustaining sales system that flies the middle finger of defiance at it's rivals, even though they're technically "Better" systems.
D.
All in all, expect the Wii to have not only a huge amount of *original* content, but "versions" of multi-console games catered to the strengths of the Wii. Sure, not as pretty to look at, but solid in their own & just as fun to play.
As for the price comment, I agree, yet disagree with you (so I amend my previous comment). It all boils down to *when & if* they (MS & Sony) drop their price & also *How much*. Sony can't even begin to touch Nintendo's price point. Doing so right now is suicide. Microsoft can, but they want to make money this generation, so price cuts are not going to be as often, nor as much. So for the next year (end up 2007 at least), Nintendo is safe. By then, production costs should be nice and low, easilly capable of sustaining a new 199$ price point, does the situation demand it. If the hype/word of mouth for the Wii continues till then, you have Sony has had the last 2 generations: A self sustaining sales system that flies the middle finger of defiance at it's rivals, even though they're technically "Better" systems.
D.
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
AniHawk said:
It's only selling to Gamecube owners though. Please stop cherry-picking data to back up your point.
WickedAngel
Banned
Link316 said:
Comparing Blu-Ray saturation to that of DVDs is so stupid that you just lowered the collective IQ of this entire forum by at least 15 points. I hope you're happy.
Buying a game machine and casually using it's multimedia functions is completely different than going to the store with the specific goal of buying a HD movie player. Please stop deluding yourself into thinking that the masses are going to suddenly run out and buy Playstation 3's instead of the inevitably cheaper standalone Blu-Ray players just because the PS3 happens to play videogames as well. It isn't going to happen.
DiatribeEQ said:
I completely agree with you the Wii is geting MORE developer support. But MORE than what? PS3 and 360? No. Just more than what everyone thought it would get before.
The GC got more developer support too. But FF:CC was not the same as FFX, FFXI, and FFXII. Metal Gear Solid Twin Snakes was not the same as MGS2 or MGS3. I can go on and on.
Ask yourself this: What are the biggest, most popular third party games coming out over the next year?
GTA, VF, DMC, etc. Are they on Wii?
Eteric Rice
Member
Forgotten Ancient said:
Anihawk better watch out, or you're going to take his place!
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
Eteric Rice said:
I <3 Anihawk. Please edit your post so he doesn't notice I'm stealing his style. And doing a very bad job at it, too.
jimbo said:
I'm not talking theory. I'm talking historical precedent. If you really, honestly don't think that massive hardware sales aren't going to lead to increased developmental priority, then I believe you're deluding yourself.
jimbo said:
Oh, so now you've decided to talk about theory, too? I guess it's okay now, then.
I think one should wait for at least one month (out of the four we've had the system on the market so far) where the system doesn't sell every unit shipped before we predict a precipitous drop in monthly sales. Especially as more high profile games do begin arriving.
jimbo said:
Well, sure, but the system sold over 613,000 in February just between the US and Japan. Add in European numbers, too... it's gaining on the 360 pretty quickly. If we look just at the US and Japan, it's already got 33% marketshare compared to the 360's 49%. How long do you think it'll take to pass it?
jimbo said:
So the Wii has to outsell PCs in order to get more developer support? Wow. :lol
jimbo said:
Games don't usually get announced until they're well into development. If we figure some projects got started after E3, those likely haven't been announced yet. More projects likely got started after the launch in Japan and the US, and those surely haven't been announced yet. Announcements will come later this year, and more games will be released in 2008.
jimbo said:
And in reality, the Wii is still selling more.
jimbo said:
You're calling Virtua Fighter one of the biggest, most popular third party games after we've just witnessed it completely tank in two separate markets?
Eteric Rice
Member
jimbo said:
Nope, but most are on the 360. Which will cut the PS3's buyers by quite a bit. MGS and FF aren't enough to save the PS3. And if FFXIII doesn't do as good as Square hopes, you can likely say goodbye to that, too.
Wii on the other hand, has Mario, Zelda, Smash Bros, etc. Games that neither MS or Sony will get.
Not to mention titles like DragonQuest: Swords, No More Heroes, MySims, Project O, and other unique games coming to the Wii.
You're going to see a lot of older franchises on the PS3/360, but I think you're going to see a lot of new stuff on the new. More so than the other systems.
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
WickedAngel said:
The thing is, if I get to the point where I want to a Blu-Ray player, I'll buy a PS3 for it. Not everyone is a gamer so my decision doesn't make sense to Non-gamer Joe, but a lot of Blu-Ray penetration will be initially comprised of people like myself. HD movie playback isn't even worth $150 for me, but I'll buy a PS3 as soon as it hits $400. I imagine the latter will happen sooner than the former.
Diatribe1974
Member
jimbo said:
Give them time....oh, I can almost assure you that you'll see most of those games on the Wii. Perhaps not GTA, but some version at the very least of the rest of the majors. Let's face it, developers are looking at 2 things for which system they're developing for:
A) Hardware install base (how many are actually in homes *now* vs. How many *should* be in homes by the time they could release a game)
B) Software attach rate (what is the attach rate right *now* vs. what it *should* be when their game could come out)
While I'm not sure exactly what the official Wii attach rate is currently, but for the 360, it's right at 5.1 games for every 360 sold. If the Wii #'s are anywhere near it now, or will be within a reasonable amount of time, then it makes perfect sense that a developer worth their salt would put AAA games of all kinda out on the Wii. Even ones you mentioned!
D.
Eteric Rice said:
I can say the same thing about the other consoles though. The 360 has Halo, arguably the largest first party release over the next couple of years. PS3 has GT4. 360 has PGR and Forza. PS3 has Jack and Daxter..etc....etc...etc
And again, the promise of "you're going to see" in the future and "what we ARE seeing" now are two different things.
Look it's simple. If I am a fan of VF, DMC4, GTA, RE, I already KNOW which systems I have to buy to play those and I already know which one won't have them.
The promise of the Wii is that IF the Wii continue to sell at this pace, IF it can ever catch the 360, then there's a good CHANCE that developers will EVENTUALLY shift their main franchises to the Wii and a year or so after that the fans will get to play them.
Right......
jimbo said:
You actually make some decent points, but you're making them from a hardcore gamers perspective..and hardware owners don't drive console sales- casuals do.
And the Wii is SELLING out in every territoy because of Wii Sports. Just think about that for a minute.
You're right, Jimbo. It'll almost certainly be at at least 10 million by the end of the year, but I don't think publishers will put anything at all of consequence on it despite their repeated public claims of "Oh shit, we missed the boat, but we're coming now."
After all, they can console themselves with sub-100k sales for Virtua Fighter 5, one of the most popular games in the world.
After all, they can console themselves with sub-100k sales for Virtua Fighter 5, one of the most popular games in the world.
I'm trying to find out why that is funny.
Considering that a developer can create and port a game to the 360, PC and PS3 I figured this was common sense.
We can pretend PC's don't matter. And we can pretend that Oblivion, Rainbow Six, Unreal, Ghost Recon, Alan Wake....and many many more.....aren't games people want and aren't games that sell and aren't games that appear on all 3 formats.
They do though.
That's exactly what I am trying to preach here. The Wii's biggest advantage is also its biggest disadvantage. If it was comparable with the other two and selling like it is there would be no doubt what you are describing is very likely. Developers would certainly pick it as the main platorm to develop for, and put their MAIN franchises on it. But in its quest to be different it actually took the 360, PS3 and PC and made it a COMBINED force to compete with. Good luck.
Look at it from a developer's point of view. I can make a game I can release on PS3, 360 and PC and it would take a small amount of money to port to each one. Or I can release it on Wii.
Which one would you do?
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
jimbo said:
Yes, let's.
Haunted
Member
While I think that every big manufacturer has run simulations of every possible outcome prior to launch, and the PS3 performing like it does right now (pretty much bomba) surely came up in one of those scenarios, I do agree that pretty much no one really and truly expected this beforehand.moku said:
Well, there's one exception - there's one person who estimated all of this. All of it.
Gahigiddy.
schuelma said:
Wii vs Ps3, Wii vs 360 and Wii vs PC...if you compare them individually...yes it is(although I don't think we have a clue as exactly how much cheaper it would be).
But why would you do that?
What I am saying is MULTIplatform games get released on MULTIPLE platforms, right?
So then why would you not divide the cost of your game over all platforms? If I make a 360 game in it costs 10 million to make, it's not going to cost me another 10 million for each platform that I port it to. The conversion costs are much much less.
The whole IDEA behind cheaper development costs is INCREASE in profit right?
So what's more profitable, spending 5 million and making 20 million in profit? Or spending 10 million on a game and making 60 million in profit?
Bah I give up. This should be pretty obvious and if it's not..then wake me up when GTA4 gets scrapped for the 360 and PS3 and gets announced for the Wii and I will say I was wrong.
jimbo said:
Yes, I see your point. My argument is that yes, the big budget productions will go 360/PS3. However, I think every single publisher is also going to be making Wii EXCLUSIVE games that will round out the Wii's lineup quite nicely.
And I maintain that this is only true for Western developers. Japanese developers WILL move main projects over to the Wii if the Wii dominates Japan. See DQ9.
I think people are massively overestimating the importance of Blu Ray (or HD DVD for that matter). I don't think either system will catch on, and even if Blu Ray does - I highly doubt that it will sell a massive amount of PS3 consoles.
Mass market doesn't give a shit about those formats, and even if that changes, it won't change for at least a few years.
Mass market doesn't give a shit about those formats, and even if that changes, it won't change for at least a few years.
v1cious said:
This is a much better strategy. Stick to stuff which is not empirically falsifyable. Games on Wii will sell more but they will be crap. Why? Because you said, so, that's why? Meanwhile HD platforms will enjoy the mindblowing quality of Generic Shooter 135, Generic Racer 59 and maybe even Done to Death Fighter 5.
ComputerNerd
Banned
Forgotten Ancient said:
Too bad revenue has little to do with the bottom line.
Profits is where it's at. PS2 makes a profit. PS3 doesn't. I see you're not too great at business either.
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